Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[TR_123456]

I'm not 100% sure on this. They've used too much capital over the last 2 decade outside their borders and an important part of the country is fed up. While we don't know much about internal power dynamics and a possible civil war threat is low, a popular protest is possible.

Dont you think the IRGC will make sure those protests die quikly?
A ''million men'' army for internal problems,the real reason why its there,no?

 

[Sanchez]

Dont you think the IRGC will make sure those protests die quikly?
A ''million men'' army for internal problems,the real reason why its there,no?

That threat didn't stop the previous ones. If the outsiders turn up the heat enough, something they previously did not do in the past protests, especially in 2022, it can get out of hand and become an uprising. A popular uprising is something, but a possible civil war is something totally different and I fear we would be the worst hit one, again in such a scenario.

 

[contricusc]

We have to play hardball to get the minimum ally behaviour out of westerners.

They overprice items, delay deliveries, offer out of date tech, cause diplomatic problems under the guise of human rights (which we all know they really don't even care about). That's if they don't outright put sanctions and weapons embargoes on us.

They actively arm, fund and shelter enemies of the Turkish Republic. They are currently building an army of kurdish seperatists just south of our border. Not to mention gulenist cult shenanigans.

You are right in everything you said. The question is, why is this happening? The answer to that question lies with Erdogan’s attitude towards the West, Greece, Israel, and also Russia.

Turkey is not seen as a trustworthy ally by the West, and this is why there is reluctance to help it build an advanced arms industry. There is a fear that a strong Turkey might one day turn against NATO. This is also why the Kurdish card is being kept alive, as a deterrent for Turkey switching sides.

Needlessly mention I'm not with "from the river to the sea" gang, and I find NATO membership valuable still, but I don't attach any sentimentality to it. If the calculus changed and we could leave that den of iniquity, intrigue and dishonor, I would support it with my whole heart.

As you point out, you would support Turkey leaving NATO if the calculus changed. Considering there are many in Turkey sharing your perspective, NATO’s reluctance is justified.

If Turkey’s leadership was not talking badly about Greece and Israel, and was not playing the neutral game when it comes to Putin, NATO would not be as reluctant to help and to allow Turkey to get sophisticated weapons.

The problem is, as things stand right now, many people in Europe don’t trust Turkey to remain on our side forever, because of the belicose rethoric of Erdogan. There is the perception that one day you might become rivals, adversaries or even enemies, considering the threatening comments made by Erdogan towards Greece in the past, and the aggressive stance towards Israel.

I think Turkey would be much better off if it would choose the Western side for good, meaning no more rethoric against Greece or Israel and no more friendly gestures towards Putin. As long as Turkey is perceived as a temporary ally that might switch sides one day, there will always be backup plans in case this happens (such as the support for Kurdish separatists and terrorists).

 

[TR_123456]

That threat didn't stop the previous ones. If the outsiders turn up the heat enough, something they previously did not do in the past protests, especially in 2022, it can get out of hand and become an uprising. A popular uprising is something, but a possible civil war is something totally different and I fear we would be the worst hit one, again in such a scenario.

Yes,another 5 million refugees or did you mean something else?

 

[Afif]

That threat didn't stop the previous ones. If the outsiders turn up the heat enough, something they previously did not do in the past protests, especially in 2022, it can get out of hand and become an uprising. A popular uprising is something, but a possible civil war is something totally different and I fear we would be the worst hit one, again in such a scenario.

I guess this is the main question, can Iranians pull this off without a civil war? Like we did in BD. Folks like Khamenei looks very strong until the moment they are ousted. I recognize the context is different. But is there any chance good guys in IRGC and Iranian army would refuse to supress the protest at some point if the popular uprising is widespread enough? Like it took thousand dead in BD over several weeks, but then we prevailed. @Rooxbar

 

[Sanchez]

Yes,another 5 million refugees or did you mean something else?

For an Iran sized country, make that 10 million.

I think Turkey would be much better off if it would choose the Western side for good

This is brinkmanship. Relations did not get sour because Erdogan said some dumb things. It can be traced back to the end of the cold war, 91 Iraq war, 2003 invasion 2009 and the Arab Spring. We are feeling the same untrustworthy vibes from US and Co as well. That's why Turkey is now going for bilateral relations with separate countries in NATO. We didn't lose our trust in the American led security order in one day.

This other reply I've made is a good example. Turkey is a neighbour to Iran. Israel and US dealing a very heavy blow on Iran, leading to a popular uprising with a possible civil war will create at least 10 million refugees, and all those refugees will come to Turkey. Neither we nor EU is ready for that. Why is noone talking about this? It's easy for Israelis, Americans, New Zealanders to make comments on it from far away. You and I will feel the consequences of their actions.

 

[Huelague]

You win safety, because being part of NATO means potential enemies would think twice before attacking you. There are several aggressive countries in Turkey’s region (Russia, Iran, Israel), but none of them would dare to attack Turkey as long as it is part of NATO.

If you would be out, and allied with pariah countries like Iran, there would be nothing stopping your potential enemies from attacking. Israel could easily strike targets inside Turkey like it does within Iran, if they would feel threatened.

Also, by being part of NATO you get easier access to advanced military technology, which would be much harder to get as a country outside the alliance, perceived by NATO as a potential threat.

Not only that NATO membership protects you from potential external threats, but it protects you from NATO itself.

Okay...
Let me try to explain our situation in two sentences. Our 'enemies/opponents' are not a big problem for us. Our 'allies/friends' are. Understood? We are in NATO to be saved from you.

 

[YeşilVatan]

You are right in everything you said. The question is, why is this happening? The answer to that question lies with Erdogan’s attitude towards the West, Greece, Israel, and also Russia.

Turkey is not seen as a trustworthy ally by the West, and this is why there is reluctance to help it build an advanced arms industry. There is a fear that a strong Turkey might one day turn against NATO. This is also why the Kurdish card is being kept alive, as a deterrent for Turkey switching sides.



As you point out, you would support Turkey leaving NATO if the calculus changed. Considering there are many in Turkey sharing your perspective, NATO’s reluctance is justified.

If Turkey’s leadership was not talking badly about Greece and Israel, and was not playing the neutral game when it comes to Putin, NATO would not be as reluctant to help and to allow Turkey to get sophisticated weapons.

The problem is, as things stand right now, many people in Europe don’t trust Turkey to remain on our side forever, because of the belicose rethoric of Erdogan. There is the perception that one day you might become rivals, adversaries or even enemies, considering the threatening comments made by Erdogan towards Greece in the past, and the aggressive stance towards Israel.

I think Turkey would be much better off if it would choose the Western side for good, meaning no more rethoric against Greece or Israel and no more friendly gestures towards Putin. As long as Turkey is perceived as a temporary ally that might switch sides one day, there will always be backup plans in case this happens (such as the support for Kurdish separatists and terrorists).

Argumentum ad Erdoganum. Westerners mask their hate and spite for Turkey with Erdogan's PR blunders. I assure you even the most atlantic oriented Turkish president would find itself at odds with NATO countries in no time. Because US will not give up its pet project of independent Kurdistan, they will also never actually go beyond "dangling the carrot" on a number of issues ranging from F-35s to Greek maritime border claims. West will never change, even if we reduce ourselves into their refugee dumping ground rump state which does everything our overlords ask, they will never return the favor. Maybe some scraps, and that's a maybe.

Every westerner would like Sevres realized if it's possible, or whatever comes close. Contrast it with their attitudes towards Iran and you'll see. Partitioning Iran is actually a way more attractive prospect than breaking up Turkey. Iran is more ethnically diverse. Persians aren't even the absolute majority AFAIK. But partitioning Iran is never on the table. Regime change, yes, independent South Azerbaijan, no.

Fortunately for us we are uninvadeable at the moment, but all of this is why we need nuclear deterrence and second strike capability. Because if a button existed that would wipe us off the map with no consequences, you would push it.

 

[Scott Summers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841949442037187001

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841954756627202424

 

[Rooxbar]

I guess this is the main question, can Iranians pull this off without a civil war? Like we did in BD. Folks like Khamenei looks very strong until the moment they are ousted. I recognize the context is different. But is there any chance good guys in IRGC and Iranian army would refuse to supress the protest at some point if the popular uprising is widespread enough? Like it took thousand dead in BD over several weeks, but then we prevailed. @Rooxbar

No, as the IRGC itself will be the main target of such protests as it has been in the previous 4 mass protests which happened in 2009, December of 2017, Bloody November of 2019, and the latest "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests of 2022. Iran is run by IRGC through the clergy. Iran is only a theocracy in name only. Most Western and outside observers don't realize this, but Iran is a military dictatorship effectively with some theocratic elements.

As a military dictatorship, it is also effectively a police state: according to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_number_of_police_officers
Iran is top 20 for police per capita, Bangladesh is bottom 20. Furthermore, the data for Iran is from 2012, for Bangladesh from 2018 and also the data for Iran doesn't include paramilitary Basij (up to 4 million active members) which act like freewheeling vigilante during protests and are given weapons to use as a grey area force who cannot as easily be tracked and prosecuted.

Iran is also no. 2 in the number of capital punishments, many of which are used against political prisoners. During the 2022 protests tens of protestors who used violence (e.g. trampled a Basij force and killed him) were hanged. The number of detainees was upwards of 60k, 22k of which were freed with a general pardon a year later when the protests died out.

Iran was also effectively not a modern state in the most important sense of that term until American sanctions deprived them of their free money, aka oil and gas. Until then, effective tax rate was close to 0%, as the government could just coast on the free money. Since then Iran has started a massive campaign of taxation, and hence is not reliant upon fickle oil money to bankroll its security forces.

All of these puts them on strong footing when it comes to crushing any mass movement. However, I'd be much more confident in this prognosis if I didn't know what the people think of the regime. The regime has around 15-20% supporters, most beneficiaries with no real ideological loyalty. Casting aside the 15% apolitical crowd, and 10-15% confused crowd (which although mostly are against the regime, their opposition is not reliable), you are left with 50-60% of the population who hate the regime's guts in varying degrees. Majority of the bourgeois, upper-middle-class higher educated urbanites are in this group and as such have disproportional presence in online places and among the immigrants and diaspora. So if you ask them, they are 90% of the population not 50-60%.

So this level of discontent is not sustainable; either the regime will completely metamorphose after the current Supreme Leader's death or slowly but surely disintegrate from inside. But this don't think will be through any explosive protests any time soon. The IRGC helped Assad bring his planes, tanks and missiles to the playground. In the past 4 mass protests, they haven't even had to resort to 5% of that and they were much weaker back then without steady tax money supporting their security forces.