Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[TR_123456]

I'm not 100% sure on this. They've used too much capital over the last 2 decade outside their borders and an important part of the country is fed up. While we don't know much about internal power dynamics and a possible civil war threat is low, a popular protest is possible.

Dont you think the IRGC will make sure those protests die quikly?
A ''million men'' army for internal problems,the real reason why its there,no?

 

[Sanchez]

Dont you think the IRGC will make sure those protests die quikly?
A ''million men'' army for internal problems,the real reason why its there,no?

That threat didn't stop the previous ones. If the outsiders turn up the heat enough, something they previously did not do in the past protests, especially in 2022, it can get out of hand and become an uprising. A popular uprising is something, but a possible civil war is something totally different and I fear we would be the worst hit one, again in such a scenario.

 

[contricusc]

We have to play hardball to get the minimum ally behaviour out of westerners.

They overprice items, delay deliveries, offer out of date tech, cause diplomatic problems under the guise of human rights (which we all know they really don't even care about). That's if they don't outright put sanctions and weapons embargoes on us.

They actively arm, fund and shelter enemies of the Turkish Republic. They are currently building an army of kurdish seperatists just south of our border. Not to mention gulenist cult shenanigans.

You are right in everything you said. The question is, why is this happening? The answer to that question lies with Erdogan’s attitude towards the West, Greece, Israel, and also Russia.

Turkey is not seen as a trustworthy ally by the West, and this is why there is reluctance to help it build an advanced arms industry. There is a fear that a strong Turkey might one day turn against NATO. This is also why the Kurdish card is being kept alive, as a deterrent for Turkey switching sides.

Needlessly mention I'm not with "from the river to the sea" gang, and I find NATO membership valuable still, but I don't attach any sentimentality to it. If the calculus changed and we could leave that den of iniquity, intrigue and dishonor, I would support it with my whole heart.

As you point out, you would support Turkey leaving NATO if the calculus changed. Considering there are many in Turkey sharing your perspective, NATO’s reluctance is justified.

If Turkey’s leadership was not talking badly about Greece and Israel, and was not playing the neutral game when it comes to Putin, NATO would not be as reluctant to help and to allow Turkey to get sophisticated weapons.

The problem is, as things stand right now, many people in Europe don’t trust Turkey to remain on our side forever, because of the belicose rethoric of Erdogan. There is the perception that one day you might become rivals, adversaries or even enemies, considering the threatening comments made by Erdogan towards Greece in the past, and the aggressive stance towards Israel.

I think Turkey would be much better off if it would choose the Western side for good, meaning no more rethoric against Greece or Israel and no more friendly gestures towards Putin. As long as Turkey is perceived as a temporary ally that might switch sides one day, there will always be backup plans in case this happens (such as the support for Kurdish separatists and terrorists).

 

[TR_123456]

That threat didn't stop the previous ones. If the outsiders turn up the heat enough, something they previously did not do in the past protests, especially in 2022, it can get out of hand and become an uprising. A popular uprising is something, but a possible civil war is something totally different and I fear we would be the worst hit one, again in such a scenario.

Yes,another 5 million refugees or did you mean something else?

 

[Afif]

That threat didn't stop the previous ones. If the outsiders turn up the heat enough, something they previously did not do in the past protests, especially in 2022, it can get out of hand and become an uprising. A popular uprising is something, but a possible civil war is something totally different and I fear we would be the worst hit one, again in such a scenario.

I guess this is the main question, can Iranians pull this off without a civil war? Like we did in BD. Folks like Khamenei looks very strong until the moment they are ousted. I recognize the context is different. But is there any chance good guys in IRGC and Iranian army would refuse to supress the protest at some point if the popular uprising is widespread enough? Like it took thousand dead in BD over several weeks, but then we prevailed. @Rooxbar

 

[Sanchez]

Yes,another 5 million refugees or did you mean something else?

For an Iran sized country, make that 10 million.

I think Turkey would be much better off if it would choose the Western side for good

This is brinkmanship. Relations did not get sour because Erdogan said some dumb things. It can be traced back to the end of the cold war, 91 Iraq war, 2003 invasion 2009 and the Arab Spring. We are feeling the same untrustworthy vibes from US and Co as well. That's why Turkey is now going for bilateral relations with separate countries in NATO. We didn't lose our trust in the American led security order in one day.

This other reply I've made is a good example. Turkey is a neighbour to Iran. Israel and US dealing a very heavy blow on Iran, leading to a popular uprising with a possible civil war will create at least 10 million refugees, and all those refugees will come to Turkey. Neither we nor EU is ready for that. Why is noone talking about this? It's easy for Israelis, Americans, New Zealanders to make comments on it from far away. You and I will feel the consequences of their actions.

 

[Huelague]

You win safety, because being part of NATO means potential enemies would think twice before attacking you. There are several aggressive countries in Turkey’s region (Russia, Iran, Israel), but none of them would dare to attack Turkey as long as it is part of NATO.

If you would be out, and allied with pariah countries like Iran, there would be nothing stopping your potential enemies from attacking. Israel could easily strike targets inside Turkey like it does within Iran, if they would feel threatened.

Also, by being part of NATO you get easier access to advanced military technology, which would be much harder to get as a country outside the alliance, perceived by NATO as a potential threat.

Not only that NATO membership protects you from potential external threats, but it protects you from NATO itself.

Okay...
Let me try to explain our situation in two sentences. Our 'enemies/opponents' are not a big problem for us. Our 'allies/friends' are. Understood? We are in NATO to be saved from you.

 

[YeşilVatan]

You are right in everything you said. The question is, why is this happening? The answer to that question lies with Erdogan’s attitude towards the West, Greece, Israel, and also Russia.

Turkey is not seen as a trustworthy ally by the West, and this is why there is reluctance to help it build an advanced arms industry. There is a fear that a strong Turkey might one day turn against NATO. This is also why the Kurdish card is being kept alive, as a deterrent for Turkey switching sides.



As you point out, you would support Turkey leaving NATO if the calculus changed. Considering there are many in Turkey sharing your perspective, NATO’s reluctance is justified.

If Turkey’s leadership was not talking badly about Greece and Israel, and was not playing the neutral game when it comes to Putin, NATO would not be as reluctant to help and to allow Turkey to get sophisticated weapons.

The problem is, as things stand right now, many people in Europe don’t trust Turkey to remain on our side forever, because of the belicose rethoric of Erdogan. There is the perception that one day you might become rivals, adversaries or even enemies, considering the threatening comments made by Erdogan towards Greece in the past, and the aggressive stance towards Israel.

I think Turkey would be much better off if it would choose the Western side for good, meaning no more rethoric against Greece or Israel and no more friendly gestures towards Putin. As long as Turkey is perceived as a temporary ally that might switch sides one day, there will always be backup plans in case this happens (such as the support for Kurdish separatists and terrorists).

Argumentum ad Erdoganum. Westerners mask their hate and spite for Turkey with Erdogan's PR blunders. I assure you even the most atlantic oriented Turkish president would find itself at odds with NATO countries in no time. Because US will not give up its pet project of independent Kurdistan, they will also never actually go beyond "dangling the carrot" on a number of issues ranging from F-35s to Greek maritime border claims. West will never change, even if we reduce ourselves into their refugee dumping ground rump state which does everything our overlords ask, they will never return the favor. Maybe some scraps, and that's a maybe.

Every westerner would like Sevres realized if it's possible, or whatever comes close. Contrast it with their attitudes towards Iran and you'll see. Partitioning Iran is actually a way more attractive prospect than breaking up Turkey. Iran is more ethnically diverse. Persians aren't even the absolute majority AFAIK. But partitioning Iran is never on the table. Regime change, yes, independent South Azerbaijan, no.

Fortunately for us we are uninvadeable at the moment, but all of this is why we need nuclear deterrence and second strike capability. Because if a button existed that would wipe us off the map with no consequences, you would push it.

 

[Scott Summers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841949442037187001

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841954756627202424

 

[Rooxbar]

I guess this is the main question, can Iranians pull this off without a civil war? Like we did in BD. Folks like Khamenei looks very strong until the moment they are ousted. I recognize the context is different. But is there any chance good guys in IRGC and Iranian army would refuse to supress the protest at some point if the popular uprising is widespread enough? Like it took thousand dead in BD over several weeks, but then we prevailed. @Rooxbar

No, as the IRGC itself will be the main target of such protests as it has been in the previous 4 mass protests which happened in 2009, December of 2017, Bloody November of 2019, and the latest "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests of 2022. Iran is run by IRGC through the clergy. Iran is only a theocracy in name only. Most Western and outside observers don't realize this, but Iran is a military dictatorship effectively with some theocratic elements.

As a military dictatorship, it is also effectively a police state: according to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_number_of_police_officers
Iran is top 20 for police per capita, Bangladesh is bottom 20. Furthermore, the data for Iran is from 2012, for Bangladesh from 2018 and also the data for Iran doesn't include paramilitary Basij (up to 4 million active members) which act like freewheeling vigilante during protests and are given weapons to use as a grey area force who cannot as easily be tracked and prosecuted.

Iran is also no. 2 in the number of capital punishments, many of which are used against political prisoners (this is also why it's hilarious when people in countries with no rule of law think capital punishment will solve their problems instead of doing a simple induction from how laws are currently implemented to arrive at a picture of how capital punishment may be implemented hypothetically). During the 2022 protests tens of protestors who used violence (e.g. trampled a Basij force and killed him) were hanged. The number of detainees was upwards of 60k, 22k of which were freed with a general pardon a year later when the protests died out.

Iran was also effectively not a modern state in the most important sense of that term until American sanctions deprived them of their free money, aka oil and gas. Until then, effective tax rate was close to 0%, as the government could just coast on the free money. Since then Iran has started a massive campaign of taxation, and hence is not reliant upon fickle oil money to bankroll its security forces.

All of these puts them on strong footing when it comes to crushing any mass movement. However, I'd be much more confident in this prognosis if I didn't know what the people think of the regime. The regime has around 15-20% supporters, most beneficiaries with no real ideological loyalty. Casting aside the 15% apolitical crowd, and 10-15% confused crowd (which although mostly are against the regime, their opposition is not reliable), you are left with 50-60% of the population who hate the regime's guts in varying degrees. Majority of the bourgeois, upper-middle-class higher educated urbanites are in this group and as such have disproportional presence in online places and among the immigrants and diaspora. So if you ask them, they are 90% of the population not 50-60%.

So this level of discontent is not sustainable; either the regime will completely metamorphose after the current Supreme Leader's death or slowly but surely disintegrate from inside. But this, I don't think, will be through any explosive protests any time soon. The IRGC helped Assad bring his planes, tanks and missiles to the playground. In the past 4 mass protests, they haven't even had to resort to 5% of that and they were much weaker back then without steady tax money supporting their security forces.

EDIT: also civil war, outside of very limited engagements in Kurdistan and Baluchistan regions are out of the question, as urbanization rates in Iran are through the roof and no vestige of tribal formation exists outside the regions I mentioned.

 

[Scott Summers]

9 extra dead terrorists.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841994328148787532

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842155670478410078

 

[Scott Summers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842315000440099181

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842562647876947971

 

[Scott Summers]

Hezbollah is even fighting better after the killing of their old leaders and commanders.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842589615774945711

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842578081464427005

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842614207641997760

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1842525057475658154

 

[Relic]

Huge secondary explosion tonight in Beirut after an Israeli strike.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fx0vh5

 

[contricusc]

Argumentum ad Erdoganum. Westerners mask their hate and spite for Turkey with Erdogan's PR blunders. I assure you even the most atlantic oriented Turkish president would find itself at odds with NATO countries in no time. Because US will not give up its pet project of independent Kurdistan, they will also never actually go beyond "dangling the carrot" on a number of issues ranging from F-35s to Greek maritime border claims. West will never change, even if we reduce ourselves into their refugee dumping ground rump state which does everything our overlords ask, they will never return the favor. Maybe some scraps, and that's a maybe.

You are making many wrong assumptions about the West, derived from the fact that you see the West as a monolithic group. There are diverging interests inside the “West”, and different opinions on many issues.

The most important thing to acknowledge is that the US and the EU are convenience allies, in the same way Turkey is part of NATO. The US doesn’t want the EU to become too powerful, in the same way it doesn’t want Turkey to become a dominant regional power.

As things stand right now, the US is playing “divide et impera” with everyone, including its allies. The EU is not a monolithic bloc as well, and there are Trojan horses inside it too, but many Europeans understand that the US is not a real ally and that Europe needs to become stronger and more independent. For this to happen, it needs to be more united.

This is where Europe’s relation with Turkey comes into question. If Turkey would be willing to resolve all its problems it currently has with EU members Greece and Cyprus, there would be a realistic path for Turkey to join the EU in the future. In such a scenario, Europeans would suddenly support Turkey’s territorial integrity and would no longer favor the Kurdish separatist movements (Even if the US would continue to support it).

European nations that have been foes in the past are now friends inside the EU, so this is not something unimaginable. Turkey is a big country that could add a lot of value as a member of the EU, and would make the potential geopolitical strength of the EU much bigger. But unfortunately there is a lot of distrust right now between Turkey and the EU, and the unwillingness of Erdogan to settle the disputes with Cyprus and Greece make it impossible for an improvement in relations and a potential for joining the union.

My opinion is that a different type of leadership in Turkey could greatly mend relations with Europe, and that joining the EU is not something impossible as many Turks here believe. Just as Greece settled its naming dispute with North Macedonia, Turkey should negotiate in good faith the reunification of Cyprus and give up its unreasonable ambitions in the Greek and Cypriot territorial waters. Turkey gets nothing from antagonizing the EU for some maritime borders that the EU will never reconginze, making the claims completely useless from an economic point of view.

Friendship and peace would be much more rewarding for Turkey, and after one generation without threats and conflicts, Europeans would start to trust Turkey a lot more and joining the EU would be seen as strengthening the union. It is all about perception.

Fortunately for us we are uninvadeable at the moment, but all of this is why we need nuclear deterrence and second strike capability. Because if a button existed that would wipe us off the map with no consequences, you would push it.

This statement is borderline paranoic. We would prefer to have you as friends, rather than wipe you off the map, even if we could do it without consequences. We are not psychopats, and we hold no grudge against you. Turkey is a beautiful country with a rich culture, very compatible with European culture, and for most Europeans you are just another European nation. You are part of UEFA after all, and participate at the Eurovision. This means we see you as one of us. Don’t let your paranoia blind you from the fact that Turkey could be a fully European country if it wanted to. Nothing is stopping you from being one, except for your mistrust and unwillingness to bury the hatred from the past.

 

[SUMAYYA]

Bro, I totally agree with you. Iranians are certainly exaggerating the outcome of this attack. And it clearly failed to do the damage they intended. Also yes, Israelis are more credible in these regards.

Though, I wasn't focusing on his conclusions. I only wanted to share this stunning video of 'stunner' missiles' failure like this as terminal interceptors. Thought they would do better. You know how it is advertised with all those fancy tech in it. (Dual mode AESA+ IIR seeker, super maneuverability) now it looks worse than PAC-3.

It seems Israel's most effective and credible defense against Iranian MRBMs are arrow 2/3.

There is a laser air defense system (Iron Beam) that Israel has been developing for years designed to integrate with Iron Dome and it's expected to be deployed next year.

Rafael expects Iron Beam laser to be active in 2025: Exec - Breaking Defense

The Oct. 7 attacks have not had a major impact yet on the company’s bottom line, a top executive tells Breaking Defense.

breakingdefense.com

 

[YeşilVatan]

This statement is borderline paranoic. We would prefer to have you as friends, rather than wipe you off the map, even if we could do it without consequences. We are not psychopats, and we hold no grudge against you. Turkey is a beautiful country with a rich culture, very compatible with European culture, and for most Europeans you are just another European nation. You are part of UEFA after all, and participate at the Eurovision. This means we see you as one of us. Don’t let your paranoia blind you from the fact that Turkey could be a fully European country if it wanted to. Nothing is stopping you from being one, except for your mistrust and unwillingness to bury the hatred from the past.

I missed the PKK SVBIED in Kızılay Ankara back in 2015 by half an hour. That's one too many western supported terrorist attack that nearly took my life. My friend lost most of her hearing. Too much death, too many lives lost, families ruined to western supported terrorism, going as far back as 1821.

It's not paranoia if they're out to get you, is it?

Anyway the thread is about Iran. Let's not derail further.