TR Military Operations in Northern Iraq

Kartal1

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If the KDP collapses, what is the plan ?
What do you mean by collapsing? What is the scenario that is going trough your mind?

Different problems require different solutions.
 

Huelague

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Iranian-backed group in Iraq, reportedly threatened Turkish forces in Iraq over the weekend. Turkey has numerous outposts and bases in northern Iraq and Ankara often carried out airstrikes against Yazidi minorities.“

Jews are facking smart people. They think they can divide Turkey and Iran or bring both in to one military conflict. Smart move.
 

Kartal1

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Iranian-backed group in Iraq, reportedly threatened Turkish forces in Iraq over the weekend. Turkey has numerous outposts and bases in northern Iraq and Ankara often carried out airstrikes against Yazidi minorities.“

Jews are facking smart people. They think they can divide Turkey and Iran or bring both in to one military conflict. Smart move.
Nothing to do with Israel. Those news are coming since 2020 regularly.

It has something to do with Iran's imperialistic approach towards the region and their works on establishing a mega project ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. In order for this project to succeed they should have control over the most important route between Iraq and Syria which is Sinjar. Guess who is on the way. Turkiye and the US. All three sides have different agendas and the region is shaped according to those.

When it comes to the north of Iraq, Turkiye has the upper hand... till ballistic missiles start to rain over our bases. The biggest problem for this project to come true is the US presence. After the US is gone Turkiye is next and believe me YPG-PKK and Peshmerga will look to you as anime girls compared to what kind of militias will take the control over the north of Iraq in case of Iranian domination of the region, and these are not friendly!

Iran is not a friendly country, we are not in the same military alliance as we are with the US in NATO, no defensive pact will prevent them to use their conventional arsenal on us and nobody will help us in case of Iranian aggression. Pro-mullah Regime Iranians are hating us to the bones. Only we can help ourselves. How? By strengthening our conventional and unconventional forces. We should pump militias loyal to us like the world is going to end tomorrow.

While we are in this thread that is mainly concentrated on the fight against PKK terrorism I want to say something important.

We are hitting their leaders like flyes left and right, but somehow we can't get to Cemil Bayik or Murat Karayilan for example. Where are they? I am sure they are not in Tel Aviv or Washington D.C. Qandil have two sides and we have no access to one of the sides. Qandil is the place where IRGC and PKK positions are within meters from eachother. How come IRGC and PKK are living in such a symbiosis in Qandil? The answer is clear.

Who is the leading force of PKK right now? Cemil Bayik. Who is Cemil Bayik?

After Cemil Bayik crossed into Iran in March, 2002. What Turkiye did then?

Turkey’s ambassador to Tehran, Selahattin Alpar, declared:

“We have official information that Cemil Bayik is in Iran. We requested from Iranian authorities to arrest and hand him over to Turkey”

What happened? The Iranians declined.

On the 10th of May, 2008 the Turkish General Staff did a press release saying:

“As a result of the Turkish air strike on the Qandil Mountains, a senior PKK commander, Cemil Bayik, fled into a neighboring country together with a large group of PKK members, engaging in clashes with local security forces”

Cemil Bayik in 2019:

“America wants to bring Turkey, Iraq and Kurds in a coalition against Iran,” Bayik told PKK affiliated news agency ANF NEWS, “the coalition would act against Iran under the monitoring of the US.”

“At this time, the role of PKK is very important, the US wants to eliminate PKK because we are and we will stand against this coalition.”

According to Bayik Americans, for their interests, are designing a new Middle East.

“The US sees PKK a great problem ahead of itself, meantime, Iran is also a problem in front of America,” Bayik said.

He believes that US Sanction on Iran, which was imposed on Tehran on December 5, 2018 and at the same time announcing five million Dollar in bounty for PKK leaders is not just a coincidence, but it is part of the US plan to destroy Iran and PKK.

End of quote.

This is the reason why the Iranian side of the border is quiet. PKK is not moving against the hand that is feeding it (security).

To understand the situation you have to understand that terrorists in Qandil are of two types. Ocalan also talked on this issue. Basically pro-US reformists and pro-Iran traditionalists. The difference between the two is that the reformists prioritize political struggle while the traditionalists prioritize armed struggle. The head of the traditionalists is the Iranian puppet Cemil Bayik.

Why do you think the US wants to rebrand the YPG? Why do you think PKK in Syria is split in two (US and Russian/Iranian/Assad protected)?

The situation is very clear. If we want to look at PKK in the north of Iraq we must look at Iran. If we want to look at PKK (traditionalist) on the west of Euphrates we should look at Iran. If we want to look at the PKK (reformist) on the east of Euphrates in Syria we must look at the US.

The ordinary PKK rat is dumb. He would go wherever the wind blows. Nobody should think that if the US leaves the region PKK will end. On the contrary, while the US is keeping the reformist YPG on its leash they only bark while the ones (HRE,Iraq PKK) under Iranian leash bite. If the US suddenly leaves Syria and we do nothing because of the possibility that Assad deal with YPG this means that the whole PKK structure will be Iranian controlled under traditionalist approach. Mazlum Abdi will either be forced to form a reformist movement and start an armed resistance or surrender to Iran.

All what I wrote above is just the basic. The situation is very serious and even of existential importance I would say. We must act very smart, play very smart with our limited resources and deal with all of the branches of PKK (traditionalists and reformists) accordingly.

Right now there is a power vacuum in the forming which is not favoring us. We should find a way to fill this gap otherwise Iran will take US's place both in Iraq and Syria and this is very big power. We wouldn't be able to do nothing else then to take our controlled areas in the north of Syria and the KRG under our protection within a federative or confederative system. This comes with a very big price to pay. We will be forced to choose either this or an Iranian domination and Iran becoming the undisputed power of the region. A price that may risk the future of the Republic of Turkiye.

If somebody thinks that Turkiye will be able to get its rightful piece of the pie from this, he is wrong. The harsh reality is that we will not be able to stand on our feet for at least 20 more years at my most positive calculations we need militaryand economyso we can supportour projects. We are late at this game and we are paying the price for this. Now we are forced to fight for the right of our existance, the unseparstable unity of our country against a global power like the US and a regional power like Iran. We must contain both under certain conditions so we are not handicapped.
 

Angry Turk !!!

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Nothing to do with Israel. Those news are coming since 2020 regularly.

It has something to do with Iran's imperialistic approach towards the region and their works on establishing a mega project ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. In order for this project to succeed they should have control over the most important route between Iraq and Syria which is Sinjar. Guess who is on the way. Turkiye and the US. All three sides have different agendas and the region is shaped according to those.

When it comes to the north of Iraq, Turkiye has the upper hand... till ballistic missiles start to rain over our bases. The biggest problem for this project to come true is the US presence. After the US is gone Turkiye is next and believe me YPG-PKK and Peshmerga will look to you as anime girls compared to what kind of militias will take the control over the north of Iraq in case of Iranian domination of the region, and these are not friendly!

Iran is not a friendly country, we are not in the same military alliance as we are with the US in NATO, no defensive pact will prevent them to use their conventional arsenal on us and nobody will help us in case of Iranian aggression. Pro-mullah Regime Iranians are hating us to the bones. Only we can help ourselves. How? By strengthening our conventional and unconventional forces. We should pump militias loyal to us like the world is going to end tomorrow.

While we are in this thread that is mainly concentrated on the fight against PKK terrorism I want to say something important.

We are hitting their leaders like flyes left and right, but somehow we can't get to Cemil Bayik or Murat Karayilan for example. Where are they? I am sure they are not in Tel Aviv or Washington D.C. Qandil have two sides and we have no access to one of the sides. Qandil is the place where IRGC and PKK positions are within meters from eachother. How come IRGC and PKK are living in such a symbiosis in Qandil? The answer is clear.

Who is the leading force of PKK right now? Cemil Bayik. Who is Cemil Bayik?

After Cemil Bayik crossed into Iran in March, 2002. What Turkiye did then?

Turkey’s ambassador to Tehran, Selahattin Alpar, declared:

“We have official information that Cemil Bayik is in Iran. We requested from Iranian authorities to arrest and hand him over to Turkey”

What happened? The Iranians declined.

On the 10th of May, 2008 the Turkish General Staff did a press release saying:

“As a result of the Turkish air strike on the Qandil Mountains, a senior PKK commander, Cemil Bayik, fled into a neighboring country together with a large group of PKK members, engaging in clashes with local security forces”

Cemil Bayik in 2019:

“America wants to bring Turkey, Iraq and Kurds in a coalition against Iran,” Bayik told PKK affiliated news agency ANF NEWS, “the coalition would act against Iran under the monitoring of the US.”

“At this time, the role of PKK is very important, the US wants to eliminate PKK because we are and we will stand against this coalition.”

According to Bayik Americans, for their interests, are designing a new Middle East.

“The US sees PKK a great problem ahead of itself, meantime, Iran is also a problem in front of America,” Bayik said.

He believes that US Sanction on Iran, which was imposed on Tehran on December 5, 2018 and at the same time announcing five million Dollar in bounty for PKK leaders is not just a coincidence, but it is part of the US plan to destroy Iran and PKK.

End of quote.

This is the reason why the Iranian side of the border is quiet. PKK is not moving against the hand that is feeding it (security).

To understand the situation you have to understand that terrorists in Qandil are of two types. Ocalan also talked on this issue. Basically pro-US reformists and pro-Iran traditionalists. The difference between the two is that the reformists prioritize political struggle while the traditionalists prioritize armed struggle. The head of the traditionalists is the Iranian puppet Cemil Bayik.

Why do you think the US wants to rebrand the YPG? Why do you think PKK in Syria is split in two (US and Russian/Iranian/Assad protected)?

The situation is very clear. If we want to look at PKK in the north of Iraq we must look at Iran. If we want to look at PKK (traditionalist) on the west of Euphrates we should look at Iran. If we want to look at the PKK (reformist) on the east of Euphrates in Syria we must look at the US.

The ordinary PKK rat is dumb. He would go wherever the wind blows. Nobody should think that if the US leaves the region PKK will end. On the contrary, while the US is keeping the reformist YPG on its leash they only bark while the ones (HRE,Iraq PKK) under Iranian leash bite. If the US suddenly leaves Syria and we do nothing because of the possibility that Assad deal with YPG this means that the whole PKK structure will be Iranian controlled under traditionalist approach. Mazlum Abdi will either be forced to form a reformist movement and start an armed resistance or surrender to Iran.

All what I wrote above is just the basic. The situation is very serious and even of existential importance I would say. We must act very smart, play very smart with our limited resources and deal with all of the branches of PKK (traditionalists and reformists) accordingly.

Right now there is a power vacuum in the forming which is not favoring us. We should find a way to fill this gap otherwise Iran will take US's place both in Iraq and Syria and this is very big power. We wouldn't be able to do nothing else then to take our controlled areas in the north of Syria and the KRG under our protection within a federative or confederative system. This comes with a very big price to pay. We will be forced to choose either this or an Iranian domination and Iran becoming the undisputed power of the region. A price that may risk the future of the Republic of Turkiye.

If somebody thinks that Turkiye will be able to get its rightful piece of the pie from this, he is wrong. The harsh reality is that we will not be able to stand on our feet for at least 20 more years at my most positive calculations we need militaryand economyso we can supportour projects. We are late at this game and we are paying the price for this. Now we are forced to fight for the right of our existance, the unseparstable unity of our country against a global power like the US and a regional power like Iran. We must contain both under certain conditions so we are not handicapped.
Türkiye needs to play a LOT more dirty. It acts way to clean and righteousness. That's not how you deal with scum. How about trying to destabilize iran the same way they do to Türkiye? How about a turkish version of hezbollah etc...
 

Bozan

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What do you mean by collapsing? What is the scenario that is going trough your mind? Different problems require different solutions.

Protests, collapse of government allowing pro-iranian groups to take over (less likely) or Iranian ballistic attacks forcing the autonomous region to turn to Iran (more likely) ?
 

Bozan

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Nothing to do with Israel. Those news are coming since 2020 regularly.

It has something to do with Iran's imperialistic approach towards the region and their works on establishing a mega project ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. In order for this project to succeed they should have control over the most important route between Iraq and Syria which is Sinjar. Guess who is on the way. Turkiye and the US. All three sides have different agendas and the region is shaped according to those.

When it comes to the north of Iraq, Turkiye has the upper hand... till ballistic missiles start to rain over our bases. The biggest problem for this project to come true is the US presence. After the US is gone Turkiye is next and believe me YPG-PKK and Peshmerga will look to you as anime girls compared to what kind of militias will take the control over the north of Iraq in case of Iranian domination of the region, and these are not friendly!

Iran is not a friendly country, we are not in the same military alliance as we are with the US in NATO, no defensive pact will prevent them to use their conventional arsenal on us and nobody will help us in case of Iranian aggression. Pro-mullah Regime Iranians are hating us to the bones. Only we can help ourselves. How? By strengthening our conventional and unconventional forces. We should pump militias loyal to us like the world is going to end tomorrow.

While we are in this thread that is mainly concentrated on the fight against PKK terrorism I want to say something important.

We are hitting their leaders like flyes left and right, but somehow we can't get to Cemil Bayik or Murat Karayilan for example. Where are they? I am sure they are not in Tel Aviv or Washington D.C. Qandil have two sides and we have no access to one of the sides. Qandil is the place where IRGC and PKK positions are within meters from eachother. How come IRGC and PKK are living in such a symbiosis in Qandil? The answer is clear.

Who is the leading force of PKK right now? Cemil Bayik. Who is Cemil Bayik?

After Cemil Bayik crossed into Iran in March, 2002. What Turkiye did then?

Turkey’s ambassador to Tehran, Selahattin Alpar, declared:

“We have official information that Cemil Bayik is in Iran. We requested from Iranian authorities to arrest and hand him over to Turkey”

What happened? The Iranians declined.

On the 10th of May, 2008 the Turkish General Staff did a press release saying:

“As a result of the Turkish air strike on the Qandil Mountains, a senior PKK commander, Cemil Bayik, fled into a neighboring country together with a large group of PKK members, engaging in clashes with local security forces”

Cemil Bayik in 2019:

“America wants to bring Turkey, Iraq and Kurds in a coalition against Iran,” Bayik told PKK affiliated news agency ANF NEWS, “the coalition would act against Iran under the monitoring of the US.”

“At this time, the role of PKK is very important, the US wants to eliminate PKK because we are and we will stand against this coalition.”

According to Bayik Americans, for their interests, are designing a new Middle East.

“The US sees PKK a great problem ahead of itself, meantime, Iran is also a problem in front of America,” Bayik said.

He believes that US Sanction on Iran, which was imposed on Tehran on December 5, 2018 and at the same time announcing five million Dollar in bounty for PKK leaders is not just a coincidence, but it is part of the US plan to destroy Iran and PKK.

End of quote.

This is the reason why the Iranian side of the border is quiet. PKK is not moving against the hand that is feeding it (security).

To understand the situation you have to understand that terrorists in Qandil are of two types. Ocalan also talked on this issue. Basically pro-US reformists and pro-Iran traditionalists. The difference between the two is that the reformists prioritize political struggle while the traditionalists prioritize armed struggle. The head of the traditionalists is the Iranian puppet Cemil Bayik.

Why do you think the US wants to rebrand the YPG? Why do you think PKK in Syria is split in two (US and Russian/Iranian/Assad protected)?

The situation is very clear. If we want to look at PKK in the north of Iraq we must look at Iran. If we want to look at PKK (traditionalist) on the west of Euphrates we should look at Iran. If we want to look at the PKK (reformist) on the east of Euphrates in Syria we must look at the US.

The ordinary PKK rat is dumb. He would go wherever the wind blows. Nobody should think that if the US leaves the region PKK will end. On the contrary, while the US is keeping the reformist YPG on its leash they only bark while the ones (HRE,Iraq PKK) under Iranian leash bite. If the US suddenly leaves Syria and we do nothing because of the possibility that Assad deal with YPG this means that the whole PKK structure will be Iranian controlled under traditionalist approach. Mazlum Abdi will either be forced to form a reformist movement and start an armed resistance or surrender to Iran.

All what I wrote above is just the basic. The situation is very serious and even of existential importance I would say. We must act very smart, play very smart with our limited resources and deal with all of the branches of PKK (traditionalists and reformists) accordingly.

Right now there is a power vacuum in the forming which is not favoring us. We should find a way to fill this gap otherwise Iran will take US's place both in Iraq and Syria and this is very big power. We wouldn't be able to do nothing else then to take our controlled areas in the north of Syria and the KRG under our protection within a federative or confederative system. This comes with a very big price to pay. We will be forced to choose either this or an Iranian domination and Iran becoming the undisputed power of the region. A price that may risk the future of the Republic of Turkiye.

If somebody thinks that Turkiye will be able to get its rightful piece of the pie from this, he is wrong. The harsh reality is that we will not be able to stand on our feet for at least 20 more years at my most positive calculations we need militaryand economyso we can supportour projects. We are late at this game and we are paying the price for this. Now we are forced to fight for the right of our existance, the unseparstable unity of our country against a global power like the US and a regional power like Iran. We must contain both under certain conditions so we are not handicapped.

If it wasn't for the domestic political calculus, from what you say it seems possible to tear the reformist branch away from the traditionalist pro-Iranian branch through diplomacy / carrot and stick

Iran really outplayed TR in the middle east
 

Kartal1

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Türkiye needs to play a LOT more dirty. It acts way to clean and righteousness. That's not how you deal with scum. How about trying to destabilize iran the same way they do to Türkiye? How about a turkish version of hezbollah etc...
See? The balance is very thin. If Iran collapses the US will take Iran's positions. If the US collapses Iran will take US's position. I am on the opinion that we must push for our own. We should enforce OUR position with nobody suddenly collapsing if possible. The process of decline must be carefully controlled so we don't create a basis for further destabilization which will serve them more.

These are tribal countries with more factors that are separating the people rathr than uniting them. We must find with what we can unite different ethnics, religions, tribes so we can be successful in this. I am not even talking about only one group. We must engage different actors and act from more than one axis in the pursue of our political and military objectives. We are actually doing it with some success, but in order to confront powers like the US and Iran we must be more proactive while we are lame at the moment.
 

Angry Turk !!!

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See? The balance is very thin. If Iran collapses the US will take Iran's positions. If the US collapses Iran will take US's position. I am on the opinion that we must push for our own. We should enforce OUR position with nobody suddenly collapsing if possible. The process of decline must be carefully controlled so we don't create a basis for further destabilization which will serve them more.

These are tribal countries with more factors that are separating the people rathr than uniting them. We must find with what we can unite different ethnics, religions, tribes so we can be successful in this. I am not even talking about only one group. We must engage different actors and act from more than one axis in the pursue of our political and military objectives. We are actually doing it with some success, but in order to confront powers like the US and Iran we must be more proactive while we are lame at the moment.
Then the people on top should get ther shit together and progress faster instead yapping 24/7 or destabilizing the own Country by filling it with every shit this World has to offer. I'm sure you guys notice but our People are deeply split and we all know why... That's not how a Country will survive, let me tell you that.
 

Kartal1

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Protests, collapse of government allowing pro-iranian groups to take over (less likely) or Iranian ballistic attacks forcing the autonomous region to turn to Iran (more likely) ?
While I will pass the first option I think the second scenario is possible.

Taking in account hlthay by the time of this happening Iran will have full control over the Iraqi Central Government we may conclude that the actions would be supported by them.

In this case for the Barzanis to survive and protect all the wealth and prosperity which they accumulated trough the decades they will want to push for independence. We know that Turkiye will never allow this and as I said above there is a compromising option for both sides. Federative or confederative option under the protection and laws of Turkiye. There are positives, but also negatives from this move. For sure a very dangerous situation, but I personally prefer it next to Iranian domination of the Middle East. It's just that the leash must be very tight. Barzanis are acting pragmatic in the last years if we don't count the show with the independence fiasco for the occasion of Masoud Barzani's retirement. We must encourage this pragmatic approach.
If it wasn't for the domestic political calculus, from what you say it seems possible to tear the reformist branch away from the traditionalist pro-Iranian branch through diplomacy / carrot and stick

Iran really outplayed TR in the middle east
With the risk of being lynched I want to express my opinion on the situation.

Abdullah Ocalan started this shit and he can be the one putting an end to PKK. He expressed his willingness of cooperating with the State and also expressed many times his dissatisfaction of the PKK leadership.

From Suleymaniye to Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo, his face is the symbol of the PKK no matter if traditionalist or reformist. If the symbol of this organization talks everybody will have to listen. He is an idol for them and I think he has the power to give us PKK on a plate for us to decide what we should do with it.
 

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I think an immense buildup of cheap ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones is in order. I know Iranian rocketry is very good, but our technological and industrial base is better. We can catch up. We need to be able to do it both ways, cheap mass bombardment AND precision strikes.

Then we start funneling arms and funding to proxies. See what sticks.
 

Kartal1

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I think an immense buildup of cheap ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones is in order. I know Iranian rocketry is very good, but our technological and industrial base is better. We can catch up. We need to be able to do it both ways, cheap mass bombardment AND precision strikes.

Then we start funneling arms and funding to proxies. See what sticks.
This would help us achieve some level of deterrence. What we lack compared to the Iranians are the militias.

We have double digit number of military bases in the north of Iraq. Their strength and coordinates are known while Iran operates "underground". They don't have military bases. They have ghosts.

I am very sorry we missed our chances with the Turkmen based on sectarianism. If we did what we had to do in 2001, then continued efforts and support the Turkmen now we wouldn't have needed to discuss at least the half of the problems we discuss, but unfortunately we were busy pleasing the US all these years.
 

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This would help us achieve some level of deterrence. What we lack compared to the Iranians are the militias.

We have double digit number of military bases in the north of Iraq. Their strength and coordinates are known while Iran operates "underground". They don't have military bases. They have ghosts.

I am very sorry we missed our chances with the Turkmen based on sectarianism. If we did what we had to do in 2001, then continued efforts and support the Turkmen now we wouldn't have needed to discuss at least the half of the problems we discuss, but unfortunately we were busy pleasing the US all these years.
Early AKP rule cost this country a lot of lives, money and opportunities.
 

Bozan

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While I will pass the first option I think the second scenario is possible.

Taking in account hlthay by the time of this happening Iran will have full control over the Iraqi Central Government we may conclude that the actions would be supported by them.

In this case for the Barzanis to survive and protect all the wealth and prosperity which they accumulated trough the decades they will want to push for independence. We know that Turkiye will never allow this and as I said above there is a compromising option for both sides. Federative or confederative option under the protection and laws of Turkiye. There are positives, but also negatives from this move. For sure a very dangerous situation, but I personally prefer it next to Iranian domination of the Middle East. It's just that the leash must be very tight. Barzanis are acting pragmatic in the last years if we don't count the show with the independence fiasco for the occasion of Masoud Barzani's retirement. We must encourage this pragmatic approach.

With the risk of being lynched I want to express my opinion on the situation.

Abdullah Ocalan started this shit and he can be the one putting an end to PKK. He expressed his willingness of cooperating with the State and also expressed many times his dissatisfaction of the PKK leadership.

From Suleymaniye to Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo, his face is the symbol of the PKK no matter if traditionalist or reformist. If the symbol of this organization talks everybody will have to listen. He is an idol for them and I think he has the power to give us PKK on a plate for us to decide what we should do with it.

I don't think you should be lynched for this opinion. I think Ocalan has passed away or is about to, as there has been a contact ban for a year or more now. But yes, the sooner the conflict ends the more cards TR will have in the middle east, otherwise Iran will dominate.

That being said, it would be political suicide for any party to attempt a such a process at the moment, which is a handicap. Unless it's Erdogan, he can do what he wants.

Also whoever the interlocutor, it should definitely not be the traditionalists or the ones on the Iran line. In Syria, it should try unite the opposition with the PKK side at least to dilute PKK and extreme elements in the opposition.
 

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Biden backed off from Afghanistan, and now he abandonds Iraq. He must be very secure about his chances in the upcoming election. Serious question: how will they supply their meat shields around Kamışlı for example?

This bodes ill for us guys. I believe dislodging Iranian proxies will be a priority in the following years, even if we manage to crush PKK in Syria and Iraq both.
 

YeşilVatan

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This is not entirely true. Plan was Trump admin's. He just followed it to the letter.
Objective reality may be just that, but American public thinks Biden is responsible, except maybe his most ardent supporters.
 

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