TR Military Operations in Northern Iraq

[Barry]

always in awe at how precise these hits are, with seemingly minimal, if any, collateral.

 

[YeşilVatan]

always in awe at how precise these hits are, with seemingly minimal, if any, collateral.

Only way to be more precise is to do what US did with the foldable sword hellfire.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1763648081076052280

This is right after removing Iraq from target exports list, are they talking about modifying the route? Why is Barzani the interlocutor for Iraq ? Why is the tweet worded this way. Strange.

 

[Sanchez]

"We continue our fight against terrorism with determination, regardless of the obstacles inside and outside our borders. We will resolve the issue regarding our borders with Iraq this summer."

Hmm. New, big scale op in preparations looks like.

Son dakika haberi... Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Irak'taki terör bu yaz çözülecek

Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Cumhurbaşkanlığı Kabinesi Toplantısı sonrası açıklamalarda bulundu. Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Terörle mücadele...

www.hurriyet.com.tr

 

[Kartal1]

"We continue our fight against terrorism with determination, regardless of the obstacles inside and outside our borders. We will resolve the issue regarding our borders with Iraq this summer."

Hmm. New, big scale op in preparations looks like.

Son dakika haberi... Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Irak'taki terör bu yaz çözülecek

Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Cumhurbaşkanlığı Kabinesi Toplantısı sonrası açıklamalarda bulundu. Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Terörle mücadele...

www.hurriyet.com.tr

Most probably Tepe Bahar. Don't believe the part with "we will resolve terror this summer" tho. If we develop a new effective approach towards the tunnels, clean them and manage to secure Tepe Bahar we will be very close to complete the "lock". This is not a small success, I don't even believe that we will manage to do it in 2024 completely, but if we do this will be the proof to the world what TSK can do in mountainous terrain.

 

[Sanchez]

Most probably Tepe Bahar. Don't believe the part with "we will resolve terror this summer" tho. If we develop a new effective approach towards the tunnels, clean them and manage to secure Tepe Bahar we will be very close to complete the "lock". This is not a small success, I don't even believe that we will manage to do it in 2024 completely, but if we do this will be the proof to the world what TSK can do in mountainous terrain.

I think we should read this in more strategic terms than tactical. Kalın and Fidan's visit to US to meet with Blinken this week, Iraqi movements up north, Barzani's visit to ADF 2024 etc must be linked.

 

[Afif]

I have been trying to follow this for a while, I somewhat understand the nature of Türkiye's relation with Syria and various local autonomous fractions there. But couldn't
comprehend how is it with Iraq, and various regional actors there.
@Sanchez @Kartal1 could any of you explain it briefly? I would much appreciate that.

 

[Kartal1]

I think we should read this in more strategic terms than tactical. Kalın and Fidan's visit to US to meet with Blinken this week, Iraqi movements up north, Barzani's visit to ADF 2024 etc must be linked.

While I agree with the other factors, the Iraqi deployment is literally in an area where there is no PKK. They are like on a vacation there, showing muscle and breathing clean mountainous air.

I hope the positive steps continue and as you pointed out, there may be something bigger in preparation. One week ago Blinken held a meeting with Masrour Barzani. Today Commander of CENTCOM, General Michael Erik Kurilla held a meeting with Ferhat Abdi Sahin (Mazlum Kobani) in Syria. Let's see...

 

[Kartal1]

I have been trying to follow this for a while, I somewhat understand the nature of Türkiye's relation with Syria and various local autonomous fractions there. But couldn't
comprehend how is it with Iraq, and various regional actors there.
@Sanchez @Kartal1 could any of you explain it briefly? I would much appreciate that.

In a simple terms I may explain it in the following way.

If we can start with the Kurds we can say that there are two major political parties in KRG.

The one is KDP (Barzani) and the other is PUK (Talabani). The Barzanis (Erbil) are in close cooperation with us. Their existence is tied to Turkiye so we are cooperating because of the mutual interests we got and the big pressure we can exert at them due to the strategic importance of Turkiye both for KDP and the KRG as a whole. They are cooperating with us against PKK.

The other ones are the PUK (Talabani). Talabanis (Suleymaniye) are a very big opponents for the political power in KRG to the Barzanis (KDP). They are close with every actor (both Iran and the US) when it comes to their interests. They have history of cooperation with PKK and currently Suleymaniye city is turned into a big PKK urban base for operations. We are opposing their malign influence and cooperation with the PKK and soon we may even take harsher measures against PUK (Talabani) officials.

The other ones are the Turkmen. The Turkmen are fighting for their rights under Kurdish government. Due to the negligence and lameness of the Turkish intelligence in the past the Turkmen had to turn to Iran for help in order to survive the DEASH threat, because they are Shia. The most of Turkmen armed elements are incorporated into the Hashdi Shaabi (Iran supported PMU). Their whole political structure is already infiltrated by Iranian agents and we lost the trust between us. No matter what happens, Turkiye and the Turkmen are still cooperating in many fields, especially when it comes to cultural exchange (their language is almost the same as Turkish) and there is still very big Turkish influence within them. Basically Iran and Turkiye are fighting for influence within the Turkmen, but in a practical way Iran is one step ahead of us. The moves Turkiye publicly announces towards the Turkmen are mainly for internal consumption (The Turks are sensitive regarding the issue with the Iraqi Turkmen) while it basically tries to dictate the Turkmen, influence their internal processes in favor of Turkiye, aiming at eliminating Iranian influence. The initiative is not working good so far.

The Central Government of Iraq as we know is acting as an Iranian proxy when it comes to the relationship between Turkiye and Iraq. They are protesting our military operations in Iraq, want us to leave Iraqi lands and cooperate with PKK in areas like Sinjar (border region between Iraq and Syria carrying critical importance). PKK's proxy in Sinjar is called YBS. The situation developed in such a way that YBS were incorporated in the Iranian supported PMU and their salaries are coming from the Iraqi Central Government.

The other factor is PKK. The PKK is basically torn in two parts. The one are the traditionalists and the other are the reformists. The main PKK branch which is in Iraq is led by the traditionalists. The traditionalists historically have relationship with Iran. They are the more violent part of PKK which is giving priority to the old-school armed struggle. While the traditionalists are the majority in Iraq, their domination in Syria is limited to the west of the Euphrates river where Russia and Iran are keeping them under control. Their main branch is called HRE (in distinction to the PYD/YPG). The reformists are the majority of PKK in Syria (PYD-YPG) and are dominating basically everywhere there is US domination. The reformists are under the leadership of Mazlum Kobani (ex-Iraqi branch PKK). While there are mainly two visions in the PKK as we said, the main branch and the strongest stable branch is the one in Iraq. The main decision making capability of PKK is in Iraq. PKK is an organization that pushes all the buttons which are profitable. They can be communist, conservative, Kurdish nationalist and also can be LGBT, feminist, liberal etc. Iraqi branch is mainly pushing the button responsible for the armed struggle while the Syrian reformist branch under US leadership is pushing mainly the political struggle button. While both the US and Iran are thinking of their interests the PKK is looking for a way to survive and this is the reason why they cooperate with everybody and work towards the same goal, but in two different ways.

In this sense Talabani (PUK) is the same. He cooperate with the US, Iran, PKK (both in Iraq and Syria) in order to ensure his survival and fight for strength against the main political power in the KRG which are the Barzani (KDP).

So basically the situation is like this:

Turkiye, Barzani (wildcard) vs PKK, Talabani, Iran | Turkmen: lack of trust (hate all Kurds) | The US: mostly neutral towards Turkiye, very deep relation with KDP, developing relations with PUK within an initiative to legitimize the reformist branch of PKK (PYD-YPG) in Syria by tying them to PUK in Iraq, fights for domination within PUK against Iranian influence, fighting against Iranian influence of the traditional branch of PKK, trying to separate the branches and create a new clean image for the Kurdish separatism in Syria, sometimes supplies PKK in Iraq with intelligence if PKK leaders under US protection are endangered |

I tried to simplify it, but I am not sure if I succeed. Words are not my power for sure...

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Question what kind of heavy glide bombs do we actually have in stock apart from JDAM/HGK which, as far as I know, are limited to a range of 28 km.
The Russians are currently massively attacking Ukraine with 900 - 1500 kg glide bombs with a range of 50 - 70 km.
Since they leave no or hardly any electrical or thermal signature and generally almost no radar signature, it is extremely difficult for Ukraine and its air defense to intercept them.
These bombs even partially prevented Ukraine's counter-offensive a few months ago, causing devastating damage.

Do we have anything comparable in this direction with a similar range? I think this type of bomb with GPS/INS is simply a game changer, especially at night these bombs are simply invisible and unbeatable.
Gliding bombs of 500 - 1000 kg with a range of 50-100 km can be dropped by drones like Akinci/Aksungur quietly and without much tam-tam in Syria/Iraq at night, without the Americans being able to do much.
This would allow the entire infrastructure such as power plants & co of the YPG/SDF/PKK to be cheaply reduced to rubble without using expensive stuff like cruise missiles & ballistic missiles. Anka 3, Akinci and Aksungur are the ideal bombtrucks for this.

 

[Afif]

Since they leave no or hardly any electrical or thermal signature and generally almost no radar signature, it is extremely difficult for Ukraine and its air defense to intercept them.

Who told you that? They have sufficient radar signeture to be detected and tracked. It is just that most of the time, a $1 million NASAM or IRIS T SLM interceptor isn't worth the trouble against $20000 Russian glide bomb. (Add to that, Ukraine doesn't have sufficient AD coverage)

 

[MhhJA]

Do we have anything comparable in this direction with a similar range?

We already produce them for example KGK 84. (100 Km range)

KGK-84 - ASELSAN

www.aselsan.com

This would allow the entire infrastructure such as power plants & co of the YPG/SDF/PKK to be cheaply reduced to rubble without using expensive stuff like cruise missiles & ballistic missiles. Anka 3, Akinci and Aksungur are the ideal bombtrucks for this.

Thats more a question of political will than our military capabilities, to execute these kind of operations.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Who told you that? They have sufficient radar signeture to be detected and tracked. It is just that most of the time, a $1 million NASAM or IRIS T SLM interceptor isn't worth the trouble against $20000 Russian glide bomb. (Add to that, Ukraine doesn't have sufficient AD coverage)

https://amp.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/putin-setzt-jetzt-gleitbomben-ein-gegen-diese-bomben-ist-ukraine-machtlos_id_222657022.html

Unfortunately in German, but it hits the nail on the head - they are released en masse and have a devastating effect.

They are comparatively inexpensive and very efficient in terms of the cost-benefit factor.
Even the USA is developing the next Generation of Glide Bombs with a Range of 100 - 150 km range.
Even better, the thing can even be fired from the ground and then glides to the target.

Boeings Gleitbombe benötigt keinen Jet und kann Ziele 150 Kilometer hinter der Front treffen

Derzeit weichen Kiews Truppen zurück, eine neuartige kleine Gleitbombe aus den USA soll die russische Offensive zum Stehen bringen. Die GLSDB kann Vorratslager und Hauptquartiere bis zu 150 Kilometer hinter der Front treffen.

www.stern.de

 

[Sanchez]

I think we should read this in more strategic terms than tactical. Kalın and Fidan's visit to US to meet with Blinken this week, Iraqi movements up north, Barzani's visit to ADF 2024 etc must be linked.

Hopkins seem to agree with my thinking. Something will happen, not sure what tho.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764738101954420997

 

[Heartbang]

Y'know, I get the feeling that if we somehow BTFO'd Iran, all these things we deal with in regards to our southern border would sort itself out in our favor.

 

[what]

Y'know, I get the feeling that if we somehow BTFO'd Iran, all these things we deal with in regards to our southern border would sort itself out in our favor.

Yeah, or it could turn into a Syria 2.0 but this time with ballistic missiles en masse, potentially nukes and a new immigrant wave.
I'm mean eventually it's going to come, I'm certain that one day there will be a US-Iran war.

But are you ready for the consequences?

 

[Bozan]

Yeah, or it could turn into a Syria 2.0 but this time with ballistic missiles en masse, potentially nukes and a new immigrant wave.
I'm mean eventually it's going to come, I'm certain that one day there will be a US-Iran war.

But are you ready for the consequences?

Definitely a huge immigrant wave

 

[Saithan]

Liquidation of problems is best solution, if you Liquidate enough they'll stop causing trouble and just look for a hole to live and die in. Like liquidating the brain of an organization would make it braindead.

 

[Heartbang]

I'm certain that one day there will be a US-Iran war.

I'd say that's unlikely. Israel needs a boogeyman in the region to keep the US in the MENA region, and Iran is fulfilling that duty with great gusto.
The relationship between Iran and the US is symbiotic in nature.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1765293153400091063

Strengthens PUK + Iran, weakens Barzani/Turkish interests

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764627034012033506

Bafel of PUK made a statement saying PKK is not our enemy