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Minister Fidan said this:
"The issue of contact is always a matter of various dimensions. It can be direct or indirect. It happens at different levels, but right now the first priority is to prevent a new conflict between the regime and the opposition. Everyone maintains their positions, or rather, there is a picture we have drawn within the framework of the Astana Agreement. It is important to protect it.
Friends, why do we care that these conflicts do not occur? For several reasons, first of all, it is essential that there are no conflicts so that there are no more immigrants. Secondly, in an environment where there is silence, the hatred on both sides can be forgotten and a political stance towards peace and the construction of the future can emerge, that is, through interactions. This is important.
Thirdly, of course, the terrorist organization, which we pay special attention to, takes something seriously from all kinds of conflicts and creates an opportunity for itself. To prevent this from happening, we are engaged in intense diplomatic and other activities to ensure that conflict continues in a certain equation and that the parties remain in their current positions. There is a lot of labor in it. There is truly incredible effort on the intelligence side, both on the military side and on this side, so it is a great effort to carry this equation in this way."
Assad wants to sabotage this equation and destabilize the region thinking this will draw resources from TSK while he sort his problem with the opposition militarily. I think these attacks are testing the reaction of the TSK.
They gradually increased their operations in times where the conflict in Gaza is taking the attention of everybody and the coverage of the Syrian conflict is done mainly by the locals, forgotten by the major social media sources and the media. This combined with the internal developments in Idlib like the recent instability around the arrest of Abu Ahmad Zakkour and the recent arrests of prominent figures within HTS including important military commanders is giving the opportunity to Assad militias to use all the factors so they can start an operation. After the arrest of Zakkour the HTS and SNA were at the brink of war with MIT and TSK preventing further destabilization.
The only factor that is left to test is TSK. Well, TSK reacted good and we will see what will be result of all this.
If they don't behave I expect simultaneous attack of the SAA and the Iranian militias from the Seraqib direction together with coordinated YPG-SAA-HRE attacks on Azez (from Tal Rifat), Al Bab and Jarablus (from Manbij), Tal Tamr (from Ayn Isa) resulting in casualties. TSK will most likely respond harshly by striking all targets along the contact lines, especially the centers of the Iranian militias in Nubl Zahra. After the ugly picture, the annihilation of targets and Erdogan's possible "We may come suddenly at night" phrase, Iranian, Turkish and Russian representatives will meet and the tension will be resolved for a couple of more months.
Why I am saying this? Because we played this game before. The factors hard to calculate here are the internal situation of HTS in Idlib and the tempo of escalation in Gaza including the possibility of a regional war and the supposed role of the Iranian militias in Syria which will play a critical importance to the combat readiness and military power of SAA in critical areas both in the West, but also in the East of Syria.
I think this time we will play it right
