Live Conflict Military Operations Syria

Sanchez

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That's missing the point. Assad may have been a piece of shit, but he was weak.
Assad being weak did not have any advantages for us, with millions of Syrians in Turkey and with Syrian markets being closed to us. It was pretty advantageous for Israel as they still had free reign over Syrian airspace.

Assad being gone and Russians being reduced to a single base for the time being have great advantages for us, mainly the removal of the Idlib pocket threat from the board, which freed our hands a bit more against Russia.
 

Tonyukuk

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It was pretty advantageous for Israel as they still had free reign over Syrian airspace.
They would have air superiority either way...

you're all missing the point here

A corridor from Israel to the north is constantly being put to the table since the fall of Assad.

There's a reason why they backed HTS instead of some mild group. You'll quickly see how Syria will devolve into a warzone once again. To be completely fair, they underestimated Jolani, he's been smart, but they have a plan B.

Assad's fall may have led to Russia and Iran getting kicked out, but Americans are still in the north backing PKK, and their hold is even stronger now. You'll see how this will end, the only thing that can prevent it is a massive operation in the north. This won't happen as the government has made peace with PKK.

Israel has practically defeated the Shia Axis. Jolani might be playing it safe for now, but you'll soon see Syrian Sunni anti-Israel groups pop up, then you'll see what will happen.

We've seen this game again and again, it's crazy how no one knows their playbook.

And yeah Assad was terrible and should have been replaced, and Russian and Iranian influence should have been removed... But it's no coincidence that YPG has been unscathed in all of this and that a Jihadist group has essentially taken over Syria. The Americans and Israelis are playing a really easy game of "good vs bad".

Anyway, I'm done with this conversation, it seems like you all lose your shit as soon as anyone even remotely suggests that the post-Assad Syria is more dangerous and more advantageous to Israel.

Yes they may have preferred the previous status quo, but now they have a casus belli. Read that again.
 

Ryder

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They would have air superiority either way...

you're all missing the point here

A corridor from Israel to the north is constantly being put to the table since the fall of Assad.

There's a reason why they backed HTS instead of some mild group. You'll quickly see how Syria will devolve into a warzone once again. To be completely fair, they underestimated Jolani, he's been smart, but they have a plan B.

Assad's fall may have led to Russia and Iran getting kicked out, but Americans are still in the north backing PKK, and their hold is even stronger now. You'll see how this will end, the only thing that can prevent it is a massive operation in the north. This won't happen as the government has made peace with PKK.

Israel has practically defeated the Shia Axis. Jolani might be playing it safe for now, but you'll soon see Syrian Sunni anti-Israel groups pop up, then you'll see what will happen.

We've seen this game again and again, it's crazy how no one knows their playbook.

And yeah Assad was terrible and should have been replaced, and Russian and Iranian influence should have been removed... But it's no coincidence that YPG has been unscathed in all of this and that a Jihadist group has essentially taken over Syria. The Americans and Israelis are playing a really easy game of "good vs bad".

Anyway, I'm done with this conversation, it seems like you all lose your shit as soon as anyone even remotely suggests that the post-Assad Syria is more dangerous and more advantageous to Israel.

Yes they may have preferred the previous status quo, but now they have a casus belli. Read that again.

Russia and Iran are gone now you have Americans and Israel.

Lets be honest here one is AIDS and the other is Cancer.

Turkiye not just had Russia and Iran knocked down but instead the problems did not end there because you have USA and Israel.

Right now as much as those bases are strategic and important. Turkiye right now needs to place them closer to border then slowly expand it.

AADS should be activated and if the Israelis want to violate Turkish airspace.

Give them the 2015 Russian treatment.

Assad was just a good puppet for Russia, Iran and also a great buffer for Israel.

Seriously Israel does need a taste of its own medicine. Turkiye needs to be a crocodile and wait for hours to strike. It shouldnt be shoot now and ask questions later.

Israel just like Russia and Iran have done many times are trying to bait Turkiye to attack them.
 

Ryder

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Guys as much as we are focused on Israel.

Dont forget the UAE is also with them.
 

contricusc

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AADS should be activated and if the Israelis want to violate Turkish airspace.

Give them the 2015 Russian treatment.
Israel just like Russia and Iran have done many times are trying to bait Turkiye to attack them.

Isn’t your first part of the post exactly what Israel wants when you say they want to bait Turkey to attack them?

”Give them the 2015 Russian treatment” means downing one of their jets, which for Israel would be enough to justify any ulterior aggression.
 

Sanchez

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A corridor from Israel to the north is constantly being put to the table since the fall of Assad.
Many people put forward many things. Israel doesn't have the capability or the force structure to force a corridor through the Syrian desert, Raqqa, tribal territory and Tabqa to the north. They barely handle the Druze and the tribes near Golan.
 

Ryder

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Isn’t your first part of the post exactly what Israel wants when you say they want to bait Turkey to attack them?

”Give them the 2015 Russian treatment” means downing one of their jets, which for Israel would be enough to justify any ulterior aggression.

Russian jet violated turkish airspace. Got what it deserved.

But the pilot thrown into jail to appease putin.
 

Saithan

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It's a situation that isn't good. But unlike Russia and USA we can't just do things and announce them afterwards.

Who here wouldn't have wanted to fully equip Palmyra base before announcing it.

Unfortunately both east and west is against us, so we have to play with open cards and win. The hard way.

Really sucks not to have any friends nearby though.

We need 400-500 combat jets and then drones and other shit imo. Modern ones.

And I can't believe they did not relocate any useful old sovjet jets from syria
 

Agha Sher

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It's a situation that isn't good. But unlike Russia and USA we can't just do things and announce them afterwards.

Who here wouldn't have wanted to fully equip Palmyra base before announcing it.

Unfortunately both east and west is against us, so we have to play with open cards and win. The hard way.

Really sucks not to have any friends nearby though.

We need 400-500 combat jets and then drones and other shit imo. Modern ones.

And I can't believe they did not relocate any useful old sovjet jets from syria

Believe it or not, the destruction of Syria's existing equipment is a blessing in disguise. Turkey and Syria can now focus on developing a truly modern and professional force from a blank sheet. No resources will need to be dedicated to keep useless Russian jets/air defence/EW operational. It is obvious for everyone that within the next 10-15 years, Israel will be at the mercy of the Turks. The US is fading away, and Turkiye will be the ONLY regional power of significance. This is why Israel and some of the arab are hellbent on containing Turkiye today.

As an American geopolitical expert said about the future of the region. The US will increasingly isolate itself and withdraw from Europe, ME and Africa. Israel will have few options left to secure its existence in a hostile region. Of these option only the guardianship of Turkiye is viable for them. Nor France or the UK will have the means to keep Turkiye away from harming Israel, so the israelis will have to one way or another make amends with Turkiye. The current idiotic leadership of israel fails to see this and they are hellbent to end their own existence in the near future.
 

Sanchez

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Turkey and Syria can now focus on developing a truly modern and professional force from a blank sheet.
With what money? We don't have enough budget for our own needs in the first place. Syria doesn't have access to capital as it's still sanctioned by US and they are hungry for oil coming from the east.
 

Agha Sher

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With what money? We don't have enough budget for our own needs in the first place. Syria doesn't have access to capital as it's still sanctioned by US and they are hungry for oil coming from the east.

Sanctions will be removed and they do have some oil and gas reserves under their control. In the near future, the PKK problem will be dealt with and they’ll get control over all the oil. in the medium-term, their pre-war industrial base will be revived and their economy will boom.

of course, they will not afford a large military in the next 5-10 years, but a small professional force with a punch is possible.
 

BaburKhan

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There is a group that approaches the T4 Air Base issue from a perspective influenced by populist posts. I would like to share my opinion on T4 in detail for them.

Please read this post carefully.

T4 Air Base is located almost equidistant from the Turkish and Israeli borders, approximately 200 kilometers. In other words, it is located at the tip of a triangle.

Now, there are posts stating that we will deploy an air defense battery on this base. I believe that this will not happen, and that only KORKUT, EH/ED and MANPAD-based anti-UAV systems will be deployed. There are also statements from security sources indicating that air defense batteries will not be deployed at this stage.

So, why?

How did Israel attack Iran? With air-launched ballistic missiles with a range of several hundred kilometers. In fact, some of these fell in Iraq.

Does Türkiye currently have an Anti-Ballistic Missile? No. Israel did have one, so what happened? It intercepted a significant portion of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran, but the ballistic missiles still hit the Nevatim Air Base where the F-35s were stationed.
There is a group that approaches the T4 Air Base issue from a perspective influenced by populist posts. I would like to share my opinion on T4 in detail for them.

Please read this post carefully.

T4 Air Base is located almost equidistant from the Turkish and Israeli borders, approximately 200 kilometers. In other words, it is located at the tip of a triangle.

Now, there are posts stating that we will deploy an air defense battery on this base. I believe that this will not happen, and that only KORKUT, EH/ED and MANPAD-based anti-UAV systems will be deployed. There are also statements from security sources indicating that air defense batteries will not be deployed at this stage.

So, why?

How did Israel attack Iran? With air-launched ballistic missiles with a range of several hundred kilometers. In fact, some of these fell in Iraq.

Does Türkiye currently have an Anti-Ballistic Missile? No. Israel did have one, so what happened? It intercepted a significant portion of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran, but the ballistic missiles still hit the Nevatim Air Base where the F-35s were stationed.


A good Explaination by Anil Sahin about the Situation with the Bases in Syria.
 

contricusc

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Russian jet violated turkish airspace. Got what it deserved.

I don’t deny that, but imagine if you would do the same to an Israeli jet, what the response would be. Israel is not Russia. Israel has a super powerful air force, as well as the unconditional backing of the US, which means NATO protection is meaningless against them.

Israel always responds with a disproportionate pummeling, in order to discourage any aggressive action against them. So if you down one of their jets, they will have to inflict more damage to you than a single jet. And then what? If you do nothing, everyone will see it as a humiliation. If you respond, than there will be even more escalation and the US will start the sanction games.

You can’t win against Israel, especially during Trump’s term.

But the pilot thrown into jail to appease putin.

Didn’t know about that, but if this is true, it is awful. This is the reward your warriors get for defending their country? Really sad.
 

contricusc

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It is obvious for everyone that within the next 10-15 years, Israel will be at the mercy of the Turks. The US is fading away, and Turkiye will be the ONLY regional power of significance.

Do you actually believe what you just wrote? The US will not be gone in 15 years, and it will still be able to project power in the Middle East. This means that Israel will remain the biggest power in the region, since it will be able to do whatever it wants while nobody has the courage to retaliate.

If a country in the region is aggressive towards Israel, it will be destroyed economically first, and if necessary, also militarily. Look at Syria, Lebanon and Iran. Do you want to become a new Iran? I don’t think so.
 

Saithan

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He's just assuming no one will harm our troops in that base, which is pretty baseless considering Russia killed 33 of our soldiers, but RTE attacked Assad to exact revenge and did nothing to Russia. RTE has been spotting licking his own spit ever since coming to office.
 

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