Saadet's votes are already divided, with polls showing that half of the base of the RP (Necmettin Erbakan's Welfare Party) has shifted to son Erbakan's YRP. SP's vote share is between 0.5% and 1%.
TOS's three partners other than IYIP, CHP and SP have between 1.5% and 2% of the vote. There will be no transfer of votes from the AKP base to them, especially after Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, because if you are in this neighborhood or if you know its dynamics well, you can see that Babacan and Davutoğlu are the main foci of anger within the Millet alliance. Especially due to the effective influence of the MHP and later the VP (Perinçek) and some other independent nationalists(some of ulusalcılar). So that, these nationalist politicians, former soldiers or journalists act almost like party spokespersons.
In other words, the transfer of votes from AKP and MHP (which is a party as voters mostly ex-AKP supporters and pre-1990s countrymens) to these political Islamist parties is almost closed. The key party here is the IYIP, and the IYIP will enter the election campaign with the weakest possible candidate by endorsing Kılıcdaroğlu's candidacy.
Political Islam in the country is not just one umbrella ideology. In fact, even when the AKP came to power in 2003 with US support, these structures were not a single entity and the AKP was essentially a party of alliances. 20 years later, the situation is much more complex and, more importantly, there are now deep and irreconcilable divisions and even feuds between these factions. There is a terrible lack of vision in this area among the left in the country and also among policy makers.
What's left? The labor and freedom alliance led by the HDP and TIP has between 9% and 11% of the vote.
Even if not a single vote is lost in these segments, the share of votes for Kılıçdaroğlu is between 11% and 14%.
For 50%+1, IYIP needs to support Kilicdaroglu without losing a single vote and IYIP+CHP need to get a combined 40% of the vote. The closer these two parties are to 40%, the more important HDP will be for the Millet alliance in the new period. The closer these two parties can get to 50% combined, the less important HDP will be.
I think it will be IYIP's base that will shape the political balance here. However, if HDP does not field a candidate, there could be a big loss in IYIP.
Kılıcdaroğlu cannot get a single vote from AKP and MHP. This segment does not only consist of conservatives. There are other small but influential cliques in state politics.
In any case, I expect a very close election. Even more generally, I believe that foreign powers are not investing in Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan, but in the possibility of political chaos. If the US had wanted a solid electoral victory for the Millet Alliance, some other would probably have been the candidate instead of Kılıcdaroğlu and we would have seen other interesting developments in recent months.
