TR Politics

contricusc

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Yeah right, you are the righteous messenger and we, with our errors deny the truth you revealed to us. May god mercy on our treacherous souls. Now take your cliches and official lines and off to your twitter and TicToc account kid. This thread is for adults. Off. 🤫
A little bit of sarcasm and a few more insults, that’s all the arguments you are able to bring to the discussion. If this thread is for adults, you’re in the wrong place.
 

Ryder

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That’s one point of view, for sure.

I do not share it. I think having good relations with the EU, and even joining it one day, would be very beneficial to Turkey.

I know how my country changed after it joined the EU. The economy improved so much and so fast, but the best part was the benefits of a much stronger passport with visa free travel in so many countries, not to mention the right to stay in any EU country for as long as you want.



Some EU members have very shameful positions on many geopolitical issues, that’s for sure.



Of course not. I never said you can’t ignore EU’s rules. I’m just saying it is a stupid thing to do, because it has very few benefits and lots of disadvantages.

The EU is very perverse when it comes to geopolitics. They say lots of lies and do things in very strange ways.

Think about “climate change” for exmaple. The EU is pushing this doctrine because it is dependent on energy imports from Russia and the Middle East. The less oil and gas is used worldwide, the cheaper those imports would be. Climate Change is some sort of anti OPEC cartel, because it is meant to reduce demand for oil.

But Europe is not alone in trying to reduce its consumption of hydrocarbons. They are pushing this doctrine to the whole world, as they want everyone to do like them, because this would have a much bigger effect on the oil and gas markets, and will not leave the EU as the only region investing in expensive alternative forms of energy.

EU has a lot of soft power, and it is very perverse at using it.

I wouldn’t want to be the enemy of the EU. I’d rather be their partner/ally. Not because they are great, but because they are a very dangerous enemy to have.

Eu is now intervening in the internal politics of its own countries like Poland and Hungary.

Eu basically is alienating its own members.

Now it is imposing electric cars look at the situation of Dutch farmers. Their livelihoods all destroyed.

You cant impose such green policies on Turkiye or the people there will revolt.

Same green cult is now infecting Australia.

Poverty will be rising even more when you take away people's meat also their livelihoods. Africans especially use trucks to traverse such conditions now with the green cult they will force them use to electric.

Also those cobalt mines are poisoning a generation of Congolese kids. The EU can pat itself on the back for saving the "world" by listening to a girl who skipped school.
 

contricusc

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Eu is now intervening in the internal politics of its own countries like Poland and Hungary.

Eu basically is alienating its own members.

The EU is doing many stupid things, I agree with that. The climate change mania and the gay/trans obsessions are not helping with having the support of many people, especially in the Eastern part of the block.

One of the reasons why I would like to see Turkey in the EU would be to shift the balance of power inside the EU and strengthen the more conservative wing of the union, which doesn’t favor the gay/trans narrative.

Now it is imposing electric cars look at the situation of Dutch farmers. Their livelihoods all destroyed.

You cant impose such green policies on Turkiye or the people there will revolt.

Same green cult is now infecting Australia.

Yes, the green cult is dangerous. I think the EU would like to force a global shift from fossil fueled vehicles to electric ones because of its lack of oil. You can see that the other country that is very happy to switch to electric cars is China, the other big importer of oil.

Poverty will be rising even more when you take away people's meat also their livelihoods. Africans especially use trucks to traverse such conditions now with the green cult they will force them use to electric.

I don’t think anyone will be able to force Africans to use electric tractors anytime soon. They need to eat.
Also those cobalt mines are poisoning a generation of Congolese kids. The EU can pat itself on the back for saving the "world" by listening to a girl who skipped school.

The EU capital is in Brussels. History shows that in Belgium there is very little regard for the life of the Congolese.
 

dBSPL

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Saadet's votes are already divided, with polls showing that half of the base of the RP (Necmettin Erbakan's Welfare Party) has shifted to son Erbakan's YRP. SP's vote share is between 0.5% and 1%.

TOS's three partners other than IYIP, CHP and SP have between 1.5% and 2% of the vote. There will be no transfer of votes from the AKP base to them, especially after Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, because if you are in this neighborhood or if you know its dynamics well, you can see that Babacan and Davutoğlu are the main foci of anger within the Millet alliance. Especially due to the effective influence of the MHP and later the VP (Perinçek) and some other independent nationalists(some of ulusalcılar). So that, these nationalist politicians, former soldiers or journalists act almost like party spokespersons.

In other words, the transfer of votes from AKP and MHP (which is a party as voters mostly ex-AKP supporters and pre-1990s countrymens) to these political Islamist parties is almost closed. The key party here is the IYIP, and the IYIP will enter the election campaign with the weakest possible candidate by endorsing Kılıcdaroğlu's candidacy.

Political Islam in the country is not just one umbrella ideology. In fact, even when the AKP came to power in 2003 with US support, these structures were not a single entity and the AKP was essentially a party of alliances. 20 years later, the situation is much more complex and, more importantly, there are now deep and irreconcilable divisions and even feuds between these factions. There is a terrible lack of vision in this area among the left in the country and also among policy makers.

What's left? The labor and freedom alliance led by the HDP and TIP has between 9% and 11% of the vote.

Even if not a single vote is lost in these segments, the share of votes for Kılıçdaroğlu is between 11% and 14%.

For 50%+1, IYIP needs to support Kilicdaroglu without losing a single vote and IYIP+CHP need to get a combined 40% of the vote. The closer these two parties are to 40%, the more important HDP will be for the Millet alliance in the new period. The closer these two parties can get to 50% combined, the less important HDP will be.

I think it will be IYIP's base that will shape the political balance here. However, if HDP does not field a candidate, there could be a big loss in IYIP.

Kılıcdaroğlu cannot get a single vote from AKP and MHP. This segment does not only consist of conservatives. There are other small but influential cliques in state politics.

In any case, I expect a very close election. Even more generally, I believe that foreign powers are not investing in Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan, but in the possibility of political chaos. If the US had wanted a solid electoral victory for the Millet Alliance, some other would probably have been the candidate instead of Kılıcdaroğlu and we would have seen other interesting developments in recent months.
 
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YeşilVatan

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People who still think the opposition even has a chance are wrong. This has three main reasons:

  • For a large segment of the conservative voters (about %40 +-5) Kılıçdaroğlu is a subject of hatred. He is a hallmark name like satan or dajjal. People blame him for problems, even when he has nothing to do with them, or has no power to influence the situation. These people come from a background where voting for Erdoğan is not a big deal. Even when the economy is in shambles, they would prefer Erdoğan over Kılıçdaroğlu.
  • Remaining %60 are divided among themselves. Kurdish opposition is very opportunistic and they have a sizeable portion which acts on orders from PKK/Öcalan (about %5-6). They somehow managed to get concessions from Erdoğan when AKP was at its peak (so-called peace process). Do you think they would let this opportunity go? They will demand concessions. Remaining 'free' Kurdish vote gets easily turned off by nationalism. Kılıçdaroğlu has tried to poach this voter group in the past unsuccessfully. All of these were just interpreted as tacit support for Kurdish seperatism by the nationalist or conservative voters, futher solidifying his position as the subject of hatred.
  • On the other hand, İYİ voters (%15 before the fiasco, maybe %10 now) will never vote for concessions to PKK. This causes frequent clashes with Babacan and Davutoğlu, because they desperately try to gain Kurdish tribal and bourgeoise vote for themselves. Nationalists don't like concessions to kurdish seperatists, and expect their party to oppose it. If they oppose it, it's internal crisis; if they don't, voters are turned off. This ideological inconsistency causes the problem of alienated voterbases from all sides.

Best case scenario for us Turkish patriots is;
  1. Erdoğan wins the election
  2. Opposition dissolves
  3. Anti-Turkish elements are purged on the opposition side
  4. Severe economic crisis happens
  5. Erdoğan gets the boot somehow
I'm not hopeful, but it's a possibility.
 

Bürküt

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Bro, can you please explain the significance of these two photos.

Looks iconic.
Tayyip Erdoğan was mayor of İstanbul before he became president (up left) Melih Gökçek was mayor of Ankara (up right) and leader of the party Necmeddin Erbakan in the middle holding their hands.In the photo below 3 CHP politicians in the same roles give dejavu to those who see it.
 
S

-Sinan-

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I read the posts here with a bitter smile on my face.

People living abroad, still not realising that Turkey has turned in to a shit hole worse that Iraq. Avarage people can't even go to mcdonalds because of the crisis and some geniuses here saying KK can't win because of his sect.

Forget "right to vote" , i don't think you should be called "Turk" anymore.
 

what

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Polls are looking positive for change. The Head of Konda, known for the most reliable polling in the country, says that chances are good for the Alliance. Markets have been rallying quite a bit after the announcement.

One thing is certain, it will get messy in the next two months.
 

dBSPL

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Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu's election poster. It seems each portrait in the background was carefully selected by its campaign team/agency.

FqpdLFtXwAA5qg-


For those who do not understand Turkish, the slogan in front: It is Kemal, I am coming.

Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu first used this line in his parliamentary group speech and it became very popular, especially among young people. Apparently, the Kılıcdaroğlu campaign team designed it as the main campaign slogan. I think they are very successful in terms of political communication language. Not just backround messages, the posture of Kılıcdaroğlu, the color tones of the poster, and the choice of font for the phrase I AM COMING are not ordinary choices.
 

Afif

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Who is he saluting? He should wave his both hands like Erdogan with hundreds of flag in the background.
 

dBSPL

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Who is he saluting?
There will be 3 different answer this question: One is from Kılıcdaroğlu supporters, one from Erdoğan supporters, and also the other one from those who do not support either of them.
 

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Lool

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Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu's election poster. It seems each portrait in the background was carefully selected by its campaign team/agency.

FqpdLFtXwAA5qg-


For those who do not understand Turkish, the slogan in front: It is Kemal, I am coming.

Kemal Kılıcdaroğlu first used this line in his parliamentary group speech and it became very popular, especially among young people. Apparently, the Kılıcdaroğlu campaign team designed it as the main campaign slogan. I think they are very successful in terms of political communication language. Not just backround messages, the posture of Kılıcdaroğlu, the color tones of the poster, and the choice of font for the phrase I AM COMING are not ordinary choices.
It seems that kilicdaroglu is more likely to win this election, sadly
The momentum is with him and Erdogan is keeping his silence like a scaredy cat
 

TheInsider

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According to my sources, both candidates are polling very close to each other(this is not a good sign for KK), but the opposition will dominate the parliament AKP votes are below %30. The popularity of Mansur and Ekrem contributed to Kılıçdaroğlu but not totally. This carried Kılıçdaroğlu a breath ahead of Erdogan but Kılıçdaroğlu should run a campaign with Mansur and Ekrem as central pieces to capitalize on their success and get more votes himself via them. Kılıçdaroğlu alone is guaranteed to lose elections. İmamoğlu and Mansur as sidekicks will still be a tough fight as not every vote of them is a vote for Kılıçdaroğlu especially votes Mansur brings from MHP and AKP.
 

dBSPL

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According to my sources, both candidates are polling very close to each other(this is not a good sign for KK), but the opposition will dominate the parliament AKP votes are below %30. The popularity of Mansur and Ekrem contributed to Kılıçdaroğlu but not totally. This carried Kılıçdaroğlu a breath ahead of Erdogan but Kılıçdaroğlu should run a campaign with Mansur and Ekrem as central pieces to capitalize on their success and get more votes himself via them. Kılıçdaroğlu alone is guaranteed to lose elections. İmamoğlu and Mansur as sidekicks will still be a tough fight as not every vote of them is a vote for Kılıçdaroğlu especially votes Mansur brings from MHP and AKP.
Pro-People alliance pollsters show Akp at 40%, while Pro-Nation alliance pollsters show Akp at around 30%. Akp's electoral strategy is based on inaugurations and ceremonies (many of which will be related to the defense industry) starting at the end of March and lasting until the beginning of May. Currently they weighing the steps of the opposition by appearing to be about post-disaster services at the moment. Whether you like him or not is another matter, but Erdoğan, whom we have all known for 20 years, is not someone who will give up easily. Therefore, in the light of the current polls and possible developments, I think it would be a surprise if Akp's share falls below 30%. In another country, maybe it wouldn't get half as many votes, but as you know, in our country, the dynamics that determine the people' votes are quite unique.

I agree with your prediction of the parliamentary arithmetic on the basis of alliances. I think it is almost certain that they will lose the majority. But, I think Erdogan's team is preparing to take a position accordingly. They will make some balancing statements towards the right-wing voters. But more importantly, if Erdogan manages to win the presidential election, some things may change their wings. Who knows what kind of negotiations are going on behind closed doors.

It seems It is important for Kılıcdaroğlu to finish the job in the first round. IMO, a lot of people don't pay much attention to it, but I think the talks with M.Ince are much more critical than this dialog with Hdp nonsense that has been going on for a few days. Hdp, Tip etc. supporters will not vote for Erdoğan anyway, if there will be second round.
 
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