TR Politics

[dBSPL]

President Erdoğan officially announces election decision (may 2023)
Special decree written to ensure that earthquake victims are not deprived of citizenship rights
Kılıcdaroğlu's candidacy is official.
Yavaş and Imamoğlu will be Kılıcdaroğlu's VPs.


We are now at the election stage.

*

If Kılıçdaroğlu fails to win, his VPs will share his failure. In other words, if this scenario is realized, they will not be able to act against Kılıçdaroğlu. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara will leave their posts. 1 year later there are local elections.

If Erdoğan loses, there is an expectation of a shift in the conservative electorate, and contrary to popular belief, SP, DEVA or GP are not the priority parties here. In the post-2015-16 period, the Akp base has been shaped to a significant extent through Mhp discourses. In other words, the first stop for the Akp base is Mhp, and if it wants to switch to the opposite bloc, it seems like Iyip. If Iyip can manage the process well, it can become the leading party within 1 election if this scenario is realized.

The main opposition bloc has come up against Erdogan with the weakest possible candidate. Kılıcdaroğlu put up a significant fight, eliminating all his rivals. He finally got Iyip to agree to his candidacy. The fate of some parties in the TOS is now in his hands.


We are in the midst of the most interesting electoral process in decades, some of things can be explained, some of things are the result of a chain of events spanning years, and some of things cannot be explained by any logic at all.

 

[dBSPL]

The longest night at Turkish political history, in recent years. New news is constantly coming into the stream. One of the remarkable ones:

HDP Co-Chair MIthat Sancar: "Instead of running a candidate, we can support the opposition candidate."

So TOS(table of six) and LAF (labor and freedom alliance, consist of HDP+TIP+EMEP and some other commies) will compete with a joint candidate. In other words, Demirtaş's words - support in case KK is nominated - are being realized. The HDP and the relatives radical left have 9-10% bone votes, and the base will vote for whoever the administrative center directing the HDP points to.

Chp and Iyip need to reach 40/42% in total.

 

[Ripley]

President Erdoğan officially announces election decision (may 2023)
Special decree written to ensure that earthquake victims are not deprived of citizenship rights
Kılıcdaroğlu's candidacy is official.
Yavaş and Imamoğlu will be Kılıcdaroğlu's VPs.


We are now at the election stage.

*

If Kılıçdaroğlu fails to win, his VPs will share his failure. In other words, if this scenario is realized, they will not be able to act against Kılıçdaroğlu. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara will leave their posts. 1 year later there are local elections.

If Erdoğan loses, there is an expectation of a shift in the conservative electorate, and contrary to popular belief, SP, DEVA or GP are not the priority parties here. In the post-2015-16 period, the Akp base has been shaped to a significant extent through Mhp discourses. In other words, the first stop for the Akp base is Mhp, and if it wants to switch to the opposite bloc, it seems like Iyip. If Iyip can manage the process well, it can become the leading party within 1 election if this scenario is realized.

The main opposition bloc has come up against Erdogan with the weakest possible candidate. Kılıcdaroğlu put up a significant fight, eliminating all his rivals. He finally got Iyip to agree to his candidacy. The fate of some parties in the TOS is now in his hands.


We are in the midst of the most interesting electoral process in decades, some of things can be explained, some of things are the result of a chain of events spanning years, and some of things cannot be explained by any logic at all.

@dBSPL

”If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara will leave their posts.”
Is this just in, because CHP had told that they wouldn’t have to resign their posts?

EDIT: Nope. They don’t need to resign their mayoral posts according to various professors of constitutional law.
Turns out there are clear cut job description written for mayor’s duties and responsibilities and yet there isn’t any clause to withhold a mayor holding the position of “vice-president” while at the same time serving as a mayor.
As a matter of fact, there is not a vice-president office and it’s up to the incumbent president to appoint one (or even a dozen!) if he feels like.
The only determining factor whether anyone can hold the vice-president office while holding any other elected office is the ethical grounds on which the president and vice-president(s) candidates stand on.

İmamoğlu ile Yavaş istifa etmeden seçim kampanyası yürütmesi mümkün mü

İYİ Parti İmamoğlu ve Yavaş'ın Cumhurbaşkanı yardımcısı adayı olmaları önerisinde bulundu. Peki İmamoğlu ve Yavaş'ın istifa etmeden seçim kampanyası yürütmesi mümkün mü?

tr.euronews.com

 

[dBSPL]

@dBSPL

”If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara will leave their posts.”
Is this just in, because CHP had told that they wouldn’t have to resign their posts?

My knowledge on this may be faulty, I am not sure. They can hold office during the nomination process, as far as I know there is no article in the constitution regulating this issue. However, I know that if the Millet alliance wins the Presidency, they will have to leave their duties. As you know, in the current system, even if ministries or the president-secretaries are from within the parliament, the deputies of them have to be dropped. If the Millet alliance wins the government, they can of course change this as a bloc that promises to redesign the system, but judging by the current election polls, it will not be possible to change these quickly in parliament at the moment, and a new referendum will be held. I don't know if this can be changed by presidential decree.

Of course, if the transitional government can get things done quickly and combine the referendum with local elections, the two mayors, who are will be VPs, could run again in local municipal elections.

 

[Ripley]

My knowledge on this may be faulty, I am not sure. They can hold office during the nomination process, as far as I know there is no article in the constitution regulating this issue. However, I know that if the Millet alliance wins the Presidency, they will have to leave their duties. As you know, in the current system, even if ministries or the president-secretaries are from within the parliament, the deputies of them have to be dropped. If the Millet alliance wins the government, they can of course change this as a bloc that promises to redesign the system, but judging by the current election polls, it will not be possible to change these quickly in parliament at the moment, and a new referendum will be held. I don't know if this can be changed by presidential decree.

Of course, if the transitional government can get things done quickly and combine the referendum with local elections, the two mayors, who are will be VPs, could run again in local municipal elections.

Please see my edited previous post with references from professors of Turkish constitution.

 

[Deliorman]

So Erdogan will rule for 5 more years... Congrats.

 

[what]

We do not get the candidate we wanted, but the one we deserve.

Nothing left but to root for the opposition coalition, if you want to see change.

 

[Kedikesenfare]

I'm in Iceland right now which is why I can't follow the news as properly as usual but let's bring one thing out in the open:

Not one single Saadet Party voter is going to cast his ballot in favour of Kılıçdaroğlu. If you think otherwise you're a fool. Sorry to be blunt but it is what it is. Turkiye is not ready for an Alevi as a president.

 

[Ripley]

I'm in Iceland right now which is why I can't follow the news as properly as usual but let's bring one thing out in the open:

Not one single Saadet Party voter is going to cast his ballot in favour of Kılıçdaroğlu. If you think otherwise you're a fool. Sorry to be blunt but it is what it is. Turkiye is not ready for an Alevi as a president.

So, the last statement, is it your personal view or reflecting the general view of Saadet Party’s electoral base, if I may ask?

 

[what]

So, the last statement, is it your personal view or reflecting the general view of Saadet Party’s electoral base, if I may ask?

No scientific data or anything on Saadet, but in a country where Alevis have historically been persecuted and suppressed - there's of course going to be many people that wouldnt vote for KK just because of that. Especially in conservative Sunni circles stereotypes are present. Saadet Party being in this Alliance makes it even weirder.

Also Saadet will get their own chairs in the government, so maybe they'll give them Diyanet or another bone to make them happy in the alliance. Saadet is like what 1-2% of the alliance? And Kilicdaroglu never seemed to be a very religious person to me, so maybe it wont matter as much. The common denominator is the return to the rule of law.

Seeing a lot of parallels to the Anti-Netanyahu coalition in Israel, but hopefully with a better ending.

 

[Kedikesenfare]

So, the last statement, is it your personal view or reflecting the general view of Saadet Party’s electoral base, if I may ask?

My personal view doesn't matter. I made a factual statement on the topic. Saadet Party’s voter base is not going to embrace an Alevi. It goes against every bit of the ideological DNA of the Milli Görüş movement.

They will move to the newly registered party called Yeniden Refah or simply abstain. Worst case scenario: some even change their minds and cast in favor of Erdoĝan.

 

[what]

My personal view doesn't matter. I made a factual statement on the topic. Saadet Party’s voter base is not going to embrace an Alevi. It goes against every bit of the ideological DNA of the Milli Görüş movement.

They will move to the newly registered party called Yeniden Refah or simply abstain. Worst case scenario: some even change their minds and cast in favor of Erdoĝan.

They wont even matter IMO. What will matter is whether the moderate half of the HDP will vote for the AKP or the Alliance.
Once again the HDP voters will be the deciding factor is my prediction.

 

[Ripley]

My personal view doesn't matter. I made a factual statement on the topic. Saadet Party’s voter base is not going to embrace an Alevi. It goes against every bit of the ideological DNA of the Milli Görüş movement.

They will move to the newly registered party called Yeniden Refah or simply abstain. Worst case scenario: some even change their minds and cast in favor of Erdoĝan.

Alright. Now I know it’s not your personal view but you are rather elaborating on a known prejudice of Turkish Society.
Thanks for the reply

 

[contricusc]

Arming of the islands goes well before Erdogan. There is ambiguity from the Turkish side regarding the situation on islands, I'll give you that. Matter of the airspace around Aegean is a hard topic. Greece does two things over Aegean which Turkey disagrees. One is claiming that as the mainland and its islands make up the Athens FIR, all flights entering the Aegean needs Greece's permission or acceptance. This is wrong. FIR only relates to civilian flights. Military or governmental planes have no duty to uphold FIR and as long as they are outside of Greek airspace(meaning above Greece and its 6nm territorial waters and airspace they can do so as they wish, which is the internationally agreed upon arrangement. Turkish aircraft entering Athens FIR does not violate Greece's sovereignty as long as those aircraft does not enter directly Greek airspace at 6nm. This is similar to Taiwan ADIZ where newspapers say everytime a PLA aircraft patrols in the channel it entered the Taiwanese airspace, it's nonsense. Taiwan ADIZ is not Taiwanese airspace.

Thanks for your detailed reply. You’re the first one who brings solid arguments in this discussion instead of just mocking my point of view.

Since I don’t know the details of the air incursions situation, I will consider that what you say is true. In this case, strictly from a technical point of view, Turkey is right most of the time.

My question is, what is the benefit of doing these air incursions without discussing with the Greeks first? Turkey and Greece are both NATO members, so they are theoretically allies. Such military flights in the airspace between Greek islands should be done in coordination with the Greeks, not in order to spite them because technically it is legal. The fact that Greece feels the need to escort Turkish jets (which is expensive for them, and their economy is not the greatest) it means they feel threatened or insulted by those actions.

As two NATO allies, these things make no sense. You don’t see such issues between Italy and France or between Denmark and Norway…

Second is that around the islands in the Aegean, Greece claims 10nm airspace, while having 6nm territorial waters. This is literally unheard of in the world and goes against every internationally agreed upon tradition and laws.

90% of the time, "Turkish aircraft violating Greek airspace" is a Turkish aircraft undertaking something similar to an American Freedom of Navigation operation(FRONOP) in international airspace, inside Athens FIR, but outside Greek airspace.

But the US does those freedom of navigation missions to enrage China, which is not an ally. Doing the same thing to an ally makes no sense. Those are provocations. While legal, they are not something you would do to an ally or friendly nation,

Once or twice a year, when it goes pretty bad between the countries and Greece ramps up its intercepting of Turkish aircraft flying in international airspace, Turkish aircraft in retaliation makes a pass over an uninhabited or a small island with few hundred people. Those are the times when Greece is in the right, not the other hundreds of times every year. At that point it's basically boy who cried wolf.

Again, my point is that those incursions have no benefit, and are just stoking uselss tensions between the two countries, while costing money. Even if Turkey is technically right, it is not something it should do to an ally, especially if it wants good relations with the EU.

"The first map looks like the international recognized map"
It can't be. It is not a valid map unless Turkey and Greece agrees on the Aegean part. Until the day Greece and Turkey sits down and agrees to delimitate and proclaim their respective EEZs, neither country has any exclusive economic rights in Aegean aside from inside their territorial waters.

The problem is Turkey is not willing to accept the internationally recognized standards of defining an EEZ. This makes it impossible to reach an agreement, and is a cause of tension that benefits nobody.

What does Turkey have to gain from refusing to accept Greece’s EEZ rights according to the international standards? I don’t think it is realistic to expect that Greece would give up those rights and Turkey would be able to exploit anything inside Greece’s claimed EEZ.

Since there is nothing to gain, why oppose them? Does Turkey plan to use force to redraw the map with Greece? If not, what does it have to gain from this opposition? You make yourself an enemy inside the EU without reaping any benefit.

 

[contricusc]

You say not to go out more than a jetski distance to our country, which is covered with seas on 3 sides. When we oppose this, we become revisionists.Greece uses Erdogan's bad image and harsh rhetoric to its advantage in the international community and tries to legitimize its own megaloidea, but in vain.I am eagerly awaiting the election.What will happen when Erdogan goes and replaces him with a leader who will defend our national interests in a more appropriate language?

Except for the HDP, which is closely related to the PKK, almost all opposition parties have declared that they will defend our national interests on the blue homeland and cyprus.The ideology of the blue homeland is now a supra-political issue for this nation.We will not burst our own lifeblood just to have good relations with the EU.Be aware of that.

The ideology of the blue homeland will not get you anywhere. It will only harm Turkey. It may sound very good on paper, but in reality it is only a path towards confrontation and animosity with your neighbors. There is no way Greece and Cyprus will accept the blue homeland claims.

Turkey won’t be able to exploit any natural resources in the areas claimed by Greece, but such ambitions will lead to confrontation with almost all Mediterranean nations and with the EU.

Many people on this forum claim that the EU has treated Turkey bad with its membership request, but how can Turkey realistically claim it wants to join the EU when it doesn’t recognize international law, it doesn’t want to resolve its issues in the European courts and is coming with ideologies like the blue homeland?

If you want in the EU, you should accept European law and European courts. If you are not willing to accept EU laws and courts, than you are only pretending to want to join the EU, in order to blame the EU for not accepting you and stoke nationalism inside Turkey.

 

[contricusc]

Dear @contricusc,
It is very clear that you have no form of formal education on political science or any critical thinking experience to establish any independent and meaningful opinion of yours.
I strongly recommend you give another try at debate team of your high school and if you fail again there, please take your hot air to Twitter and TikTok but not here.
Good luck.

And guys, could we please stop responding his troll baiting? It’s really below the intellect of this forum.

Insult the messenger instead of debating his points. If this is what they teach in “political science”, I’m glad I have no formal education in that field.

 

[Ryder]

The ideology of the blue homeland will not get you anywhere. It will only harm Turkey. It may sound very good on paper, but in reality it is only a path towards confrontation and animosity with your neighbors. There is no way Greece and Cyprus will accept the blue homeland claims.

Turkey won’t be able to exploit any natural resources in the areas claimed by Greece, but such ambitions will lead to confrontation with almost all Mediterranean nations and with the EU.

Many people on this forum claim that the EU has treated Turkey bad with its membership request, but how can Turkey realistically claim it wants to join the EU when it doesn’t recognize international law, it doesn’t want to resolve its issues in the European courts and is coming with ideologies like the blue homeland?

If you want in the EU, you should accept European law and European courts. If you are not willing to accept EU laws and courts, than you are only pretending to want to join the EU, in order to blame the EU for not accepting you and stoke nationalism inside Turkey.

If Turkiye is willing to sacrifice its own interests which hurt itself in the long run.

I think Turkiye is better off without the Eu.

Lets not forget how some your eu members were supporting a certain warlord in Libya full of mass graves.

When Turkiye intervened in Libya the EU tried to stop them many times.

Good thing now in geopolitics that countries are all looking out for their own. When Erdogan said the world is bigger than 5 countries many African countries started to ask for their rights even start to look out for their own interests.

Nobody has to play to your "rules"

 

[contricusc]

If Turkiye is willing to sacrifice its own interests which hurt itself in the long run.

I think Turkiye is better off without the Eu.

That’s one point of view, for sure.

I do not share it. I think having good relations with the EU, and even joining it one day, would be very beneficial to Turkey.

I know how my country changed after it joined the EU. The economy improved so much and so fast, but the best part was the benefits of a much stronger passport with visa free travel in so many countries, not to mention the right to stay in any EU country for as long as you want.

Lets not forget how some your eu members were supporting a certain warlord in Libya full of mass graves.

When Turkiye intervened in Libya the EU tried to stop them many times.

Some EU members have very shameful positions on many geopolitical issues, that’s for sure.

Good thing now in geopolitics that countries are all looking out for their own. When Erdogan said the world is bigger than 5 countries many African countries started to ask for their rights even start to look out for their own interests.

Nobody has to play to your "rules"

Of course not. I never said you can’t ignore EU’s rules. I’m just saying it is a stupid thing to do, because it has very few benefits and lots of disadvantages.

The EU is very perverse when it comes to geopolitics. They say lots of lies and do things in very strange ways.

Think about “climate change” for exmaple. The EU is pushing this doctrine because it is dependent on energy imports from Russia and the Middle East. The less oil and gas is used worldwide, the cheaper those imports would be. Climate Change is some sort of anti OPEC cartel, because it is meant to reduce demand for oil.

But Europe is not alone in trying to reduce its consumption of hydrocarbons. They are pushing this doctrine to the whole world, as they want everyone to do like them, because this would have a much bigger effect on the oil and gas markets, and will not leave the EU as the only region investing in expensive alternative forms of energy.

EU has a lot of soft power, and it is very perverse at using it.

I wouldn’t want to be the enemy of the EU. I’d rather be their partner/ally. Not because they are great, but because they are a very dangerous enemy to have.

 

[Ripley]

Insult the messenger instead of debating his points. If this is what they teach in “political science”, I’m glad I have no formal education in that field.

Yeah right, you are the righteous messenger and we, with our errors deny the truth you revealed to us. May god mercy on our treacherous souls. Now take your cliches and official lines and off to your twitter and TicToc account kid. This thread is for adults. Off.

 

[Ripley]

@Bürküt @Ryder @Sanchez

Please don’t take him seriously. He is just a kid spamming the thread. He is a troll living on attention. Don’t feed him by responding to him and he’ll disappear 🫥