Russia lacks the offensive capacity to invade Ukraine.

[RogerRanger]

I think if the Russians had the capacity they would have invaded Ukraine by now. I was actually shocked by the fact the Russians have mobilized about a 1/4 of its armed forces and it just about outnumbers 1/2 the Ukraine army. In the old days the Russians could have mobilized ten times this number of troops and could have just swept through the Ukrainians army. Now however the Russian army is small just 400,000 men. If you include active army and the para's. The Russians just don't have the numbers to do offensive operations like that which would be needed in Ukraine.

I do think the Russians have the capacity to stop NATO moving into the Black and Baltic sea's, and I do think they have the capability to shoot down American missiles and aircraft. However just looking at the Russians they are becoming reliant on space assets, drones and elite/special forces to do most of the fighting. So those forces are very limited offensively and you can't hold ground with them. If the Russians invade, defeat the Ukraine military and take it over, they won't have the men to combat the 4 generation warfare to come.

The Russians just don't have the man power or economy anymore to do offensive movements across entire fronts. So they are defensive in nature now.

 

[Manomed]

Their army is tiger paper they are bringing cold war shit from their depos etc Just to make people say

MUH STRONG RUSSIA

 

[Nilgiri]

Well it is not just the offensive capacity, but the long term plan and costs associated with even a best case scenario of invasion of another country.

What next, and how do you fund that occupation....of a now large even more hostile population to your forces/people?

Or you just want to do something punitive + retreat? (And the costs of doing that long term).

It is why I feel other than maybe an attempt to connect donbass to crimea (to secure crimea logistically in some salient past just kerch area), nothing is really feasible operationally for Russia....or makes much strategic sense.

Ukraine is kind of (large enough) lab experiment for Putin to test some red lines with europe and west (and also use as cudgel against any domestic pressures he faces)....without commiting some all out invasion and occupation and risking way too much.

 

[Gary]

They have the offensive capacity, but their concern now is how to maintain control post occupation and the potential economic backlash from US+EU. Something that will hurt Russia in the long run.

 

[Ryder]

They took Crimea which is their most prized possesion.

Warm water ports is what powers Russian foreign policy.

 

[blackjack]

I think if the Russians had the capacity they would have invaded Ukraine by now. I was actually shocked by the fact the Russians have mobilized about a 1/4 of its armed forces and it just about outnumbers 1/2 the Ukraine army. In the old days the Russians could have mobilized ten times this number of troops and could have just swept through the Ukrainians army. Now however the Russian army is small just 400,000 men. If you include active army and the para's. The Russians just don't have the numbers to do offensive operations like that which would be needed in Ukraine.

I do think the Russians have the capacity to stop NATO moving into the Black and Baltic sea's, and I do think they have the capability to shoot down American missiles and aircraft. However just looking at the Russians they are becoming reliant on space assets, drones and elite/special forces to do most of the fighting. So those forces are very limited offensively and you can't hold ground with them. If the Russians invade, defeat the Ukraine military and take it over, they won't have the men to combat the 4 generation warfare to come.

The Russians just don't have the man power or economy anymore to do offensive movements across entire fronts. So they are defensive in nature now.

1st of all they have no reasons in wanting to invade Ukraine since no offense to some is a shithole that is almost comparable to some african or middle eastern country. Russians do operate Soviet equipment but doing so made them still take Georgia in 5 days compared to the time and length it took NATO to take down Serbia and the military operations cost them less than it did the Georgians during that in which I cant say the same for NATO for their cost of military assets in comparison to Serbs. Submarines with Zircons being launched from underwater is sufficient enough for them to lay waste to alot of ships with underwater nuclear reactor powered SONAR arrays known as HARMONY which can be placed anywhere at sea in which it can cue satellites in locating military ships. The U.S. is honing their ballistic missile interception skills but scramets are a different story in regards to altitudes and utilization of plasma stealth because of their kinetic heat.

The shittiest S-200 managed to shoot down a F-16I which is capable of EW from Syria and aircrafts were still shot down in the kosovo war despite aircrafts having 3 to 4 times more range than those SAMs yet that was nowhere near close to their modern air defense capabilities. You can get 3 LTS aircrafts for a cheaper cost than the F-35A, 6 Su-70s for the cost of F-35A and I assure you 6 Su-70s launching 12 internal hypersonic air to ground Larva-MD missiles at air defenses will get more done than a single F-35. They are even moving on to photonic radars where stealth and radar horizon dont matter anymore, The Krasukha-4 has like 2 times the range of the KORAL jammer and they are already planning on replacing the Krasukha-4 with a more powerful EW system. I dont the west has anything unique in EW like the Murmansk-BM or the Rtut-BM. Exoskeleton suits, T-14s, modernizing like 100s of T-90M to T-14 standards, plenty of unmanned robotic tank options where they developed a program where a person with VR glasses can go control a tank, etc, etc, etc. their is going to be a 2nd batch order for the 2nd Su-57 variants, LTS numbers, Su-70 numbers and more aviation projects

Eventually the Europeans wont be able to deal with the costs of their gas bills causing NS2 to re-open and thanks to Israels paranoai of arab countries like the UAE from getting more powerful to eventually be a threat will make it difficult for them to transport oil which will eventually make Russia their next oil customer with all the ice breaker projects they have going on in the Arctic. They are teaching in the west about 60 genders, LGBT history for kids and are cool with illegal 3rd world shithole migrants replacing their population. So what does Ukraine have that is worth invading for them when time is heavily on their side than it is compared to the west which is probably why the west is trying very hard to push for war? This is one simple question no pro-ukrianian nationalist is able to answer here.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Well it is not just the offensive capacity, but the long term plan and costs associated with even a best case scenario of invasion of another country.

What next, and how do you fund that occupation....of a now large even more hostile population to your forces/people?

Or you just want to do something punitive + retreat? (And the costs of doing that long term).

It is why I feel other than maybe an attempt to connect donbass to crimea (to secure crimea logistically in some salient past just kerch area), nothing is really feasible operationally for Russia....or makes much strategic sense.

Ukraine is kind of (large enough) lab experiment for Putin to test some red lines with europe and west (and also use as cudgel against any domestic pressures he faces)....without commiting some all out invasion and occupation and risking way too much.

pretty much this.

 

[Gary]

They took Crimea which is their most prized possesion.

Warm water ports is what powers Russian foreign policy.

not really, they'll still have a long way crossing many choke points that is NATO controlled or dominated. For the Black Sea fleet they'll have to traverse from Istanbul strait>>Aegean>Mediterranean>Gibraltar.

In fact out of the 5 Russian fleet, only the Pacific fleet is relatively open to the high sea.

 

[Ryder]

not really, they'll still have a long way crossing many choke points that is NATO controlled or dominated. For the Black Sea fleet they'll have to traverse from Istanbul strait>>Aegean>Mediterranean>Gibraltar.

In fact out of the 5 Russian fleet, only the Pacific fleet is relatively open to the high sea.

Pacific is pretty far away not to mention Russia's base has always been European Russia.

Thats why for centuries they were trying whatever they can gain a warm water port they already got it technically from crimea and syria.

 

[Manomed]

1st of all they have no reasons in wanting to invade Ukraine since no offense to some is a shithole that is almost comparable to some african or middle eastern country. Russians do operate Soviet equipment but doing so made them still take Georgia in 5 days compared to the time and length it took NATO to take down Serbia and the military operations cost them less than it did the Georgians during that in which I cant say the same for NATO for their cost of military assets in comparison to Serbs. Submarines with Zircons being launched from underwater is sufficient enough for them to lay waste to alot of ships with underwater nuclear reactor powered SONAR arrays known as HARMONY which can be placed anywhere at sea in which it can cue satellites in locating military ships. The U.S. is honing their ballistic missile interception skills but scramets are a different story in regards to altitudes and utilization of plasma stealth because of their kinetic heat.

The shittiest S-200 managed to shoot down a F-16I which is capable of EW from Syria and aircrafts were still shot down in the kosovo war despite aircrafts having 3 to 4 times more range than those SAMs yet that was nowhere near close to their modern air defense capabilities. You can get 3 LTS aircrafts for a cheaper cost than the F-35A, 6 Su-70s for the cost of F-35A and I assure you 6 Su-70s launching 12 internal hypersonic air to ground Larva-MD missiles at air defenses will get more done than a single F-35. They are even moving on to photonic radars where stealth and radar horizon dont matter anymore, The Krasukha-4 has like 2 times the range of the KORAL jammer and they are already planning on replacing the Krasukha-4 with a more powerful EW system. I dont the west has anything unique in EW like the Murmansk-BM or the Rtut-BM. Exoskeleton suits, T-14s, modernizing like 100s of T-90M to T-14 standards, plenty of unmanned robotic tank options where they developed a program where a person with VR glasses can go control a tank, etc, etc, etc. their is going to be a 2nd batch order for the 2nd Su-57 variants, LTS numbers, Su-70 numbers and more aviation projects

Eventually the Europeans wont be able to deal with the costs of their gas bills causing NS2 to re-open and thanks to Israels paranoai of arab countries like the UAE from getting more powerful to eventually be a threat will make it difficult for them to transport oil which will eventually make Russia their next oil customer with all the ice breaker projects they have going on in the Arctic. They are teaching in the west about 60 genders, LGBT history for kids and are cool with illegal 3rd world shithole migrants replacing their population. So what does Ukraine have that is worth invading for them when time is heavily on their side than it is compared to the west which is probably why the west is trying very hard to push for war? This is one simple question no pro-ukrianian nationalist is able to answer here.

Seems like a post from RT

 

[Gary]

Seems like a post from RT

He jumped from how good the S-200 is to LGBT stuff, pretty much explain his intentions here.

 

[blackjack]

What intentions that the west is declining and the east is rising? than thats a yes. But they have no reasons to take Ukraine since nothing is of value over there. Sea power doesnt mean shit when a single sub with 40 zircons can waste 40 ships and that there are different tier class air defenses they have that havent been used yet. I was atleast expecting some kind of refutal instead of snide remarks. Sorry Russia defense net gets boring some times

 

[Bosanski Vojnik]

I think if the Russians had the capacity they would have invaded Ukraine by now. I was actually shocked by the fact the Russians have mobilized about a 1/4 of its armed forces and it just about outnumbers 1/2 the Ukraine army. In the old days the Russians could have mobilized ten times this number of troops and could have just swept through the Ukrainians army. Now however the Russian army is small just 400,000 men. If you include active army and the para's. The Russians just don't have the numbers to do offensive operations like that which would be needed in Ukraine.

I do think the Russians have the capacity to stop NATO moving into the Black and Baltic sea's, and I do think they have the capability to shoot down American missiles and aircraft. However just looking at the Russians they are becoming reliant on space assets, drones and elite/special forces to do most of the fighting. So those forces are very limited offensively and you can't hold ground with them. If the Russians invade, defeat the Ukraine military and take it over, they won't have the men to combat the 4 generation warfare to come.

The Russians just don't have the man power or economy anymore to do offensive movements across entire fronts. So they are defensive in nature now.

You are incorrectly assuming that Russia is A) Planning to invade the whole of Ukraine & B) you are negating the potential involvement of forces from Belarus, Transnistria, Wagner mercenaries & finally reservists as relief troops in any up coming conflict.

To cut a long story short Russia's main political goal of invading Ukraine is to cut it off from the sea and capture the east of the country up to the Dnieper river. Which is an almost perfect made for war natural barrier. After they plan to use reservist forces to keep a permanent occupation presence and the Russian Air force & battlefield missiles would be used to keep the stalemate using planes, drones and Iskandar's to neutralize any potential force gathering and equipment threats on the Western side of the Dnieper.

Knowing how Russia uses it's political strategy combined with military they will then demand political concessions from the West and use the battlefield situation as a hostage i.e make demands that NATO pull out some of it's forces from area's close to Russia's borders or they will invade the rest of the country etc.. It's classic Russian playbook. Only question is will West play hard or will they again fall for Russian hostage demands. If they do fall to the demands it could lead to the end of presidencies and leadership of likes of Biden & Scholz already and massively undermine NATO as an organisation.

Anyway in order for Russia to realistically achieve it's goals they would utilize:

120 000 Russian Ground Forces
30 000 Separatist forces in Donbass (Pro-Russian)
5 000 Forces in Belarus
4 000 Transnistrian Army + Russian forces in Transnistria
4000 Wagner + other mercanaries
+ Reservists awaiting full mobilization located within 100km distance of Ukraine Border

That's a total of around 160 000 troops on the ground.

Backed up by Air power and Naval forces they can take the East but with a CAVEAT. Only IF Ukrainians are massively underprepared. If Ukrainian forces are adequately prepared and can mobilize reservists at a quick pace (similar to how IDF can) then they can stop such an invasion force by inflicting massive casualties on the invading Russians and if NATO countries get their act together and provide the Ukrainians with emergency supply lines. This is actually my main concern for Ukrainians is that they will have limited Supply lines due to Eurocuck and American cuck indifference whilst Russians will have an unlimited supply train to use.

I fully believe in the fog of war. Anything can happen in war regardless of equipment advantage and manpower advantage.

 

[Agha Sher]

Russia should be concerned. If their Ukraine ops are not effective they will embarrass themselves again and embolden their enemies. There is a high risk of them running into a wall in Ukraine - poor weather, javelins, inability to establish clear air dominance and lack of precision munitions might expose them. Even in Georgia they showed huge capability concerns. They lost a Tu-22 strategic bomber bcs they used it for recon due to lack of recon assets.

 

[Gary]

Lets be real, Javelins ain't gonna stop a full Russian invasion, weather will degrade combat efficiency but will not stop Russian air power to a grinding halt.

The Russians has transformed much since their mediocre performance in '08. The same could not be said for the Ukrainians. despite 7 years of war now, has not changed much from the army if 2014.

Russian air force will dominate if not own Ukraine's sky if NATO decide not to intervene to appease Russia.

 

[blackjack]

Russia should be concerned. If their Ukraine ops are not effective they will embarrass themselves again and embolden their enemies. There is a high risk of them running into a wall in Ukraine - poor weather, javelins, inability to establish clear air dominance and lack of precision munitions might expose them. Even in Georgia they showed huge capability concerns. They lost a Tu-22 strategic bomber bcs they used it for recon due to lack of recon assets.

the end results was Georgia ended up losing more in a short amount of time than they did, poor weather is nothing their military vehicles are shown all over youtube going in chest high water. their MRLS have longer ranges than javelins, do ukrainians have F-35s? Is this a troll post? Excluding Zircons there are other cool ways to die like launching poseidon underwater nukes near war ships causing giant tidal waves to flip them over.

 

[Manomed]

the end results was Georgia ended up losing more in a short amount of time than they did, poor weather is nothing their military vehicles are shown all over youtube going in chest high water. their MRLS have longer ranges than javelins, do ukrainians have F-35s? Is this a troll post?

WAOWWW some air defence system shotdown F16 russians must be strong.

Countless russian jets has been shotdown by "manpads" not even real AA systems.

Stop praising russian tech like RT does you go like wowww SU-70 is cheaper than F35 Su-70 doesn't even exists Its a mockup russian jets or their AA systems are just big baloons.

Nato didn't even entered kosovo in full force even with limited attacks serbian air force and AA systems got destroyed.



F35 is a real jet while SU-70 is a mock up and russian EW systems are big baloons as well.

Most of the stuff russians show of doesn't even enter service their armor is obsolete.

 

[blackjack]

WAOWWW some air defence system shotdown F16 russians must be strong.

Countless russian jets has been shotdown by "manpads" not even real AA systems.

Stop praising russian tech like RT does you go like wowww SU-70 is cheaper than F35 Su-70 doesn't even exists Its a mockup russian jets or their AA systems are just big baloons.

Nato didn't even entered kosovo in full force even with limited attacks serbian air force and AA systems got destroyed.

We get it you are a russian bot

F35 is a real jet while SU-70 is a mock up and russian EW systems are big baloons as well.

Most of the stuff russians show of doesn't even enter service their armor is obsolete.

stop copying and pasting stuff from RT

I guess it infuriates you that the Su-70 is a big boy to that is entering service in a few years in comparison to the TB2? It took NATO MONTHs when another country as shitty as Kosovo like Georgia took 5 days.

 

[Manomed]

I guess it infuriates you that the Su-70 is a big boy to that is entering service in a few years in comparison to the TB2? It took NATO MONTHs when another country as shitty as Kosovo like Georgia took 5 days.

Su-70 will be garbage just like most of the Russian jets. Also one is from 1999 and other is from 2008 nato didn't even entered the place with full force.

You can cope but can't blur the reality fake ukrainian.

making a fifth gen jet in few years DDD while not having any experience with it We saw what happened to the glorious Su-57s they are not even close to rafale or any other western jet.

 

[blackjack]

Su-70 will be garbage just like most of the Russian jets. Also one is from 1999 and other is from 2008 nato didn't even entered the place with full force.

You can cope but can't blur the reality fake ukrainian.

making a fifth gen jet in few years DDD while not having any experience with it We saw what happened to the glorious Su-57s they are not even close to rafale or any other western jet.

Well for starters NATO cant even get anything like the Su-70 related in operation Hint: BAE Taranis, Neuron or X-47B so theres that and so what the Russians havent even gone full force on Georgia, few fucking months for NATO

The Su-57 is was hinted with GaN AESA EW system modules in a 2014 Rostec book, has all aspect stealth radar and infrared coverage, next in 2026 they will have an LTS stealth aircraft that is 1/3rd the cost of the F-35. While they are getting successful results with detonation engines, photonic radars, etc. We can run comparisons if you like just throw in whatever you want here