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Spain Shocks NATO: F-35 Fighter Deal Scrapped, Turkey’s KAAN Stealth Jet Emerges as Strategic Alternative - Defence Security Asia
Spain has cancelled its F-35 deal with the U.S., sparking speculation that Turkey’s KAAN stealth fighter could emerge as a strategic alternative. What does this mean for NATO, Europe’s defence autonomy, and the global fighter jet market?
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Spain Shocks NATO: F-35 Fighter Deal Scrapped, Turkey’s KAAN Stealth Jet Emerges as Strategic Alternative
Spain’s dramatic cancellation of the F-35 Lightning II programme has thrown NATO’s airpower plans into disarray, with analysts now pointing to Turkey’s KAAN stealth fighter as a potential strategic alternative.
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By admin On Oct 4, 2025 
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(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — Spain’s unexpected decision to abandon its long-discussed acquisition of the U.S.-built F-35 Lightning II has sent shockwaves through Europe’s defence and security community.
The announcement, formally confirmed by the Spanish Ministry of Defence in August 2025, represents one of the most dramatic reversals in European airpower procurement in recent memory.
For years, Washington had considered Madrid a likely F-35 customer, particularly for the F-35B variant to replace Spain’s aging Harrier fleet.
Yet, in a move reflecting shifting strategic priorities, Spain has chosen to chart an alternative path that avoids dependence on U.S. technology.
This vacuum of choice has sparked intense debate among analysts about what options Spain might pursue to maintain its aerial combat credibility.
Among the contenders now attracting serious attention is Turkey’s ambitious fifth-generation KAAN stealth fighter, a project that Ankara has been positioning as a viable alternative to Western platforms.
Spanish defence commentators argue that KAAN could serve as a stopgap bridge until the European-led Future Combat Air System (FCAS) matures in the 2040s.
The possibility of Spain turning to a Turkish-developed platform highlights the growing diversification of procurement strategies within NATO.
It also underscores Europe’s wider struggle between reliance on U.S. defence dominance and the drive for technological sovereignty across the continent.
In essence, Spain’s F-35 cancellation has not only reshaped its national defence trajectory but also elevated Turkey’s KAAN into the spotlight as a potential strategic alternative with profound implications for NATO’s future airpower balance.
Spain’s F-35 Ambitions and Their Abrupt Cancellation
Spain’s flirtation with the F-35 program dates back to 2023, when its government allocated approximately €6.25 billion ($7.24 billion) to modernise its combat air fleet.
The Spanish Navy had been particularly eager to secure the F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) variant, which was seen as the only viable successor to its aging Harrier AV-8B “Matador” fleet that is set to retire by 2030.
Meanwhile, the Spanish Air Force had considered the F-35A variant as a transitional stopgap while awaiting the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a Franco-German-Spanish sixth-generation project plagued by delays and internal squabbling.
On 6 August 2025, however, the Ministry of Defence stunned observers by announcing that Madrid would no longer pursue the F-35.
Instead, it pledged to redirect funds into strengthening its Eurofighter Typhoon fleet and expediting its participation in FCAS.
The reversal was the product of three interlinked dynamics: cost, geopolitics, and sovereignty.
Crucially, Spanish defence planners concluded that investing further in the Eurofighter—an aircraft co-produced by Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo—would not only extend the fighter’s operational relevance through the planned ECRS Mk2 radar and electronic warfare upgrades but also safeguard thousands of domestic aerospace jobs.
At the same time, Madrid’s withdrawal from the F-35 procurement reflects a growing European consensus that the continent should not be perpetually dependent on U.S.-driven defence ecosystems, especially at a moment when transatlantic relations are strained by divergent political and economic priorities.
Analysts also highlight that Spain’s choice carries implications for NATO’s force posture, since the absence of the F-35B narrows the alliance’s pool of STOVL-capable jets—leaving Italy and the United Kingdom as the only European operators able to deploy such fighters from light carriers and amphibious ships.
Finally, the Spanish decision has been interpreted in Ankara as a strategic opportunity, with Turkish officials privately suggesting that KAAN’s future navalised variant could one day serve aboard Spain’s next-generation aircraft carrier, thereby filling the STOVL gap with a different technological trajectory.
Cost and Budgetary Priorities
The F-35 has long been criticised for its escalating lifecycle expenses.
Although Lockheed Martin advertises the jet’s unit cost at around $82 million for the F-35A, real-world acquisition and sustainment costs for foreign customers often exceed $100–120 million per aircraft.
For Spain, analysts calculated that the total programme—including maintenance, logistics, and software upgrades—could balloon well beyond €10 billion.
This figure clashed with Spain’s defence budgetary priorities, especially given its commitment to allocate the bulk of its €10.5 billion 2025–2030 defence spending increase toward European collaborative projects.
Madrid’s fiscal calculus aligned with an emerging trend across NATO: escalating concerns over the long-term financial sustainability of the F-35 fleet.
Adding to this pressure, U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports from mid-2025 confirmed that the global F-35 fleet continues to face mission-capable rates below 60 percent, with rising sustainment costs outpacing initial forecasts.
European operators such as Norway and the Netherlands have already flagged the financial strain of maintaining F-35 availability, with some analysts warning that smaller air forces may ultimately be forced to scale down their fleets.
For Spain, committing to such a costly platform risked siphoning funds from its domestic aerospace industry, where Airbus-led projects like the Eurofighter Typhoon and FCAS are seen as critical to sustaining technological sovereignty.
By choosing to sideline the F-35, Madrid positioned itself to reinvest in long-term European capabilities while avoiding the budgetary “black hole” increasingly associated with the Lightning II’s sustainment cycle.
Geopolitical Considerations: Autonomy vs. Dependency
The decision was also shaped by geopolitical considerations.
Spain’s policymakers were alarmed by Washington’s increasingly unpredictable trade policies, particularly under the looming prospect of a second Trump presidency.
Analysts warned that U.S. tariffs on European defence exports could undercut Spain’s industrial participation in transatlantic ventures.
There were also concerns that Washington might leverage technology transfer restrictions as a political tool, leaving Spain’s sovereignty hostage to U.S. policy shifts.
By rejecting the F-35, Madrid signaled its alignment with the broader European push for defence autonomy—a narrative long championed by Paris and increasingly embraced by Berlin.
This trend echoes Switzerland’s internal backlash to its own controversial F-35 procurement in 2021, which faced criticism for compromising national independence.
Technological and Political Risks
Spain’s Defence Ministry was also wary of the F-35’s closed architecture.
Access to its mission-critical source codes, electronic warfare suites, and sensor fusion software remains tightly restricted by Washington, even to close NATO allies.
This lack of operational sovereignty risked locking Spain into a system where upgrades and combat readiness were perpetually dependent on U.S. approval.
Meanwhile, the FCAS project, though riddled with political disputes over work-share between Dassault Aviation, Airbus, and Indra, was still viewed as the future backbone of European airpower.
Spain’s leaders calculated that any interim platform should not compromise its political leverage within FCAS.
Rejecting the F-35 was thus a strategic choice to preserve its bargaining power in Europe’s sixth-generation effort.
The KAAN Fighter: Turkey’s Ambitious Fifth-Generation Project
Enter Turkey’s KAAN fighter, formerly known as TF-X—a twin-engine stealth multirole aircraft developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI).
First launched in 2010, KAAN has become the centerpiece of Ankara’s drive for aerospace sovereignty following its 2019 expulsion from the F-35 programme over the purchase of Russian S-400 air defence systems.
The aircraft’s first prototype was unveiled in March 2023, with initial flight testing beginning in early 2024.
Turkey aims to have the platform fully operational by the early 2030s, with serial production starting by 2028.
Significantly, Turkish Aerospace has accelerated integration of indigenous systems such as ASELSAN’s active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and HAVELSAN’s mission software, ensuring KAAN is not reliant on Western black-box technologies.
In July 2025, Turkish defence officials confirmed that the second prototype is undergoing avionics calibration and structural testing, marking an important step toward validating stealth performance and combat survivability.
Industry sources also report that Ankara is in advanced talks with Pakistan and Azerbaijan to become early export customers, with co-production opportunities under discussion to reduce per-unit costs.
If KAAN achieves its development milestones on schedule, it could emerge as the only non-U.S., non-Chinese fifth-generation fighter available on the export market by the early 2030s, giving Turkey a rare strategic edge in the global aerospace sector.
KAAN incorporates advanced radar-absorbing materials and a low-observable airframe optimised for stealth operations against modern integrated air defence systems.
It is projected to achieve a maximum speed of Mach 1.8 and boasts supercruise capabilities without afterburners—an attribute that rivals the F-22 Raptor.
The fighter will initially be powered by U.S.-made General Electric F110 engines, though Ankara is accelerating work on an indigenous TRMotor powerplant.
Its avionics suite is dominated by Turkish-developed technologies, including an AESA radar by ASELSAN, advanced electronic warfare systems, and sensor-fusion software designed to enable network-centric warfare.
Turkey positions KAAN as a cost-effective fifth-generation alternative.
At an estimated $100 million per unit, the fighter undercuts the F-35 in lifecycle costs while promising greater operational sovereignty for export clients.
Potential buyers include Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and Indonesia—all nations seeking advanced fighters but reluctant to rely on U.S. systems.
The aircraft’s success would catapult Turkey into the ranks of top-tier aerospace exporters, challenging entrenched players like Dassault, Saab, and Lockheed Martin.
Spanish Analysts Float KAAN as a Potential Alternative
Following Madrid’s cancellation of the F-35, Spanish defence media began to speculate on KAAN as a possible stopgap solution.
A defence analyst said that KAAN “could provide Spain with a critical bridge until the FCAS reaches maturity around 2040.”
He argued that both the Spanish Air Force and Navy could benefit, with the latter exploring the possibility of a navalised KAAN variant compatible with CATOBAR operations.
Such a variant could eventually equip Spain’s next-generation aircraft carrier, envisioned as the successor to the Juan Carlos I amphibious assault ship.
Turkish defence outlets quickly amplified these suggestions, framing them as evidence of growing European interest in KAAN.
By September 2025, speculation had even migrated to social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), where defence enthusiasts proposed a “Hürjet → Eurofighter → KAAN” pipeline for Spain’s future airpower.
Foundations of Spanish-Turkish Defence Collaboration
While official confirmation of KAAN negotiations remains absent, Spain and Turkey already share cooperative defence links.
Earlier in 2025, Madrid signed a memorandum of understanding with TAI for the acquisition of 24–30 Hürjet trainer jets, developed jointly with Airbus.
This collaboration could easily expand into KAAN, with possibilities of technology transfer in avionics, composite materials, and stealth design.
For Turkey, Spanish participation would grant credibility to its fifth-generation programme.
For Spain, it could serve as a hedge against the uncertainties of FCAS while strengthening ties with an increasingly assertive NATO ally on Europe’s southern flank.
Strategic and Geopolitical Implications
Spain’s F-35 exit reverberates far beyond Madrid.
At the NATO level, the decision highlights growing fractures between European defence ambitions and U.S. dominance in alliance procurement.
A shift toward KAAN would symbolically elevate Turkey within NATO’s defence ecosystem, especially as Ankara continues to balance relations with both Washington and Moscow.
It would also add momentum to Europe’s diversification of suppliers—a trend underscored by rising Rafale exports to Croatia, Greece, and Indonesia.
However, KAAN’s unproven status raises doubts.
Despite impressive mockups and early flight tests, critical questions remain about its engine development, stealth performance, and production scalability.
For Madrid, embracing KAAN would be a gamble: trading a proven but costly U.S. aircraft for a cheaper, sovereign-friendly platform still in its infancy.
Washington’s Unease and European Caution
The U.S. has reacted with unease to Spain’s decision, fearing it could embolden other allies to abandon the F-35 in favour of indigenous alternatives.
Lockheed Martin executives have privately lobbied European capitals, warning that reliance on unproven platforms like KAAN could undermine NATO’s interoperability.
France, meanwhile, has seized the moment to promote Dassault’s Rafale as a proven European solution.
But Spain’s interest in KAAN suggests a willingness to explore riskier but potentially more rewarding industrial partnerships.
Outlook: Speculation or Future Reality?
As of October 2025, Spain has not formalised any procurement path involving KAAN.
The country continues to invest in Eurofighter upgrades while committing political capital to the troubled FCAS programme.
Yet, the cancellation of the F-35 signals an openness to alternatives that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
Whether Madrid ultimately embraces KAAN will depend on multiple factors: the pace of FCAS development, Spain’s budgetary constraints, Turkey’s progress in delivering a combat-ready platform, and the geopolitical winds within NATO.
