Probably the best decision TuAF made the last five decades but also a mistake not to take the additional two.
Absolutely. The +2 option should have been used before the window of opportunity closed, and also we should had procured at least the same number of P-8 MPAs developed on the same 737NG. I think it is unlikely that we will see additional AEW-C aircraft for the next decade. My opinion on this issue is that all A330-200s in THY inventory should be given to the air force for MRTT conversion, but Aselsan should work on 2 of them as an AEW-C aircraft, even though it is wide-body aircraft.
For the next twenty years: additional AEW-C aircrafts with indigenous radar, long range MPAs and for multi-role tanker transport roles - Im just speculating numbers - there is a need for around 18-20 narrow and wide body aircraft. Even if we can handle the long-range MPA roles largely through drones, I think at least 10-12 aircraft will be needed.
As far as I know, there were some ideas to move forward through the cooperation between Aselsan and Antonov, but this has become quite difficult due to the current circumstances. Today, Kotil stated that TAI is preparing to put an airliner project with 60-80 seats and very low seat/flight cost on its agenda in the coming period. If we evaluate this kind of planning according to the current workload, I think it will take at least 10 years before it becomes a project and the aircraft can be produced. If there is no military priority here, it will probably take even more time to turn it into a extended range and a platform for use in military projects.
I believe that until we have our own aircraft, or until there is a co-production/under-licence production prepared with very good conditions, such platforms will continue to be in a very limited number in the TAF inventory. The younger generations are very lucky, because from the mid-2030s they will probably witness a period of expansion of the TAF.