TR Turkiye's F-35 Project and Discussions

[Huelague]

Actually delusional to think that US has even a single reason to include Turkiye in F-35 supply chain now.

1.For a cheaper unit price. 2.To slow down MMU process. 3.To accelerate mass production. 4. To animate Turkey to buy some. 5. For legal reason..

 

[TheInsider]

Actually delusional to think that US has even a single reason to include Turkiye in F-35 supply chain now.

How many mid-sections did Germany deliver since Germany replaced Turkiye for the F-35 project?

 

[UkroTurk]

It is best time to get rid off S400 for money. They need more air defense, we could re-export for Natural gas dept. Then welcome F-35.

Russia will have to sacrifice air bases and ports to protect its refineries, -

Russia could relocate its air defense forces to oil plants, which would weaken the defenses of air bases, ports, headquarters and other military installations, making them easier targets.

Ukraine Has Developed 15 Kinds Of Long-Range Strike Drone—And Has Sortied Them Against Russia’s Oil Industry

In a year of raids targeting a dozen refineries and depots in western Russia, the Ukrainian intelligence directorate has reduced Russia’s refinery capacity by 12 percent.

www.forbes.com

View attachment 66829

@Nilgiri would you like to buy a ready system?

Russia to deliver remaining 2 S-400 air defence missiles to India by Q3 of 2026: Sources

Russia was supposed to deliver five squadrons by early 2024 but the supplies were delayed due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

www.businesstoday.in

 

[Zafer]

The cost of investment we made in our F35 involvement is not reason enough to keep attached to it. It is a losing deal for anyone but the US and Israel. Türkiye's only path forward is 100% self reliance. It will only be 2-3 more years before we see the fruits of our efforts in every field. We should take advantage of a lack of supply of F35 and make our presence in the 5th generation fighter realm by making a quick progress with Kaan and everything it depends on.

 

[Sanchez]

Taking a quick glance at potential customers for F-35 and Kaan, I think there's not one country that can buy the F-35 in the current geopolitical climate but would choose Kaan instead of buying F-35. Together, maybe, instead of, nope.

 

[uçuyorum]

Taking a quick glance at potential customers for F-35 and Kaan, I think there's not one country that can buy the F-35 in the current geopolitical climate but would choose Kaan instead of buying F-35. Together, maybe, instead of, nope.

Saudi Arabia? They were almost going to get F35, I'm sure they can get a really good deal from us, because we act desperate at negotiations.

 

[Zafer]

Taking a quick glance at potential customers for F-35 and Kaan, I think there's not one country that can buy the F-35 in the current geopolitical climate but would choose Kaan instead of buying F-35. Together, maybe, instead of, nope.

F35 customers have to be US allies and the US will not let its allies buy other stuff but those who do not have to rely solely on the US will buy Kaan if they can.

 

[Sanchez]

Saudi Arabia? They were almost going to get F35, I'm sure they can get a really good deal from us, because we act desperate at negotiations.

F-35 for Saudi and UAE was always iffy at best and required a huge leap of faith from Trump, with every other part of the state apparatus being against it. Even if Trump comes back next year, I think that ships has long sailed. I do think Saudi can be a customer for Kaan as well. Hopefully not UAE tho.

F35 customers have to be US allies and the US will not let its allies buy other stuff but those who do not have to rely solely on the US will buy Kaan if they can.

Plenty of US allies use French, Korean, German, and even Turkish arms. None of these countries solely rely on US. My point is, there's not a market that will open up for Kaan with F-35 deliveries for block 4 being delayed.

 

[Zafer]

F-35 for Saudi and UAE was always iffy at best and required a huge leap of faith from Trump, with every other part of the state apparatus being against it. Even if Trump comes back next year, I think that ships has long sailed. I do think Saudi can be a customer for Kaan as well. Hopefully not UAE tho.


Plenty of US allies use French, Korean, German, and even Turkish arms. None of these countries solely rely on US. My point is, there's not a market that will open up for Kaan with F-35 deliveries for block 4 being delayed.

That's for small arms, for critical systems like fighters and engines they go to the US.

 

[Zafer]

My point is, there's not a market that will open up for Kaan with F-35 deliveries for block 4 being delayed.

You never know where F35 will be sold next, if we can sell to potential F35 countries like UAE and other gulf countries were that is a grab.

 

[UkroTurk]

KSA likes to diversify suppliers so they won't hesitate purchase two different fighters from several countries. İndeel the strategy is logical but not logistical. Moreover they have money.


İf we turn back F-35 program, how many fighters will we have to buy?

Flying with just one squadron of F-35 would give Turkish defense industry and air force unprecedented experience.

 

[Iskander]

The cost of investment we made in our F35 involvement is not reason enough to keep attached to it. It is a losing deal for anyone but the US and Israel. Türkiye's only path forward is 100% self reliance. It will only be 2-3 more years before we see the fruits of our efforts in every field. We should take advantage of a lack of supply of F35 and make our presence in the 5th generation fighter realm by making a quick progress with Kaan and everything it depends on.

It seems to me that Türkiye was a little hasty with the acquisition of the S400. By the time the launchers of these air defense systems were unloaded in Mürted (July 2019), Turkish pilots in America were already flying the F35 with the corresponding emblem. Couldn't the acquisition of the Russian system have been delayed until the first F35s were transported to Turkey? Imagine: the first F35s arrive, and the next day...
If America began to be indignant and demand the return of these planes (by what right?), in response, Turkish specialists could dismantle them down to the last screw. I'm sure they would find a lot of interesting things that would be needed in the production of TF-X.

 

[Zafer]

It seems to me that Türkiye was a little hasty with the acquisition of the S400. By the time the launchers of these air defense systems were unloaded in Mürted (July 2019), Turkish pilots in America were already flying the F35 with the corresponding emblem. Couldn't the acquisition of the Russian system have been delayed until the first F35s were transported to Turkey? Imagine: the first F35s arrive, and the next day...
If America began to be indignant and demand the return of these planes (by what right?), in response, Turkish specialists could dismantle them down to the last screw. I'm sure they would find a lot of interesting things that would be needed in the production of TF-X.

Not really.

We had already produced the central section composite for the F35 so we had nothing to learn for composites. AFAIK a Turkish company made the display of the F35 for them, so nothing in there either. I would say we were better off not even looking at the plane. The timing of the S400 acquisition was right as we did not want the F35 in our territory. It is totally submission to American wishes to be in the F35 project so No thanks to F35. Obviously we can make a better plane than the F35 and we can actually se that we are making it. We want to be self reliant in our defense sector as we want to protect our interests and interests of our friends in the world and you can't do it when you raise your hands and surrender to America who is the only nation that can threaten Türkiye.

 

[Sanchez]

The timing of the S400 acquisition was right as we did not want the F35 in our territory.

Untrue.

People genuinely believe in the thought experiment that we did all that, had ourselves removed from the program and got sanctioned under CAATSA because we actually "DIDN'T" want F-35s. This is dumb. There were other ways to remove ourselves from the program, like I don't know, changing our future planning and saying we no longer needed F-35s in our future vision.

Anyone that says Turkey willingly did all this because we DIDN'T want F-35s is just kidding themselves. It was a bluff that failed horribly, which ended us up with a Kaan we are still dependent on US for its engines, 2 batteries of S-400s we haven't used once in any theaters where they could be needed and no F-35s.

 

[Zafer]

Untrue.

People genuinely believe in the thought experiment that we did all that, had ourselves removed from the program and got sanctioned under CAATSA because we actually "DIDN'T" want F-35s. This is dumb. There were other ways to remove ourselves from the program, like I don't know, changing our future planning and saying we no longer needed F-35s in our future vision.

Anyone that says Turkey willingly did all this because we DIDN'T want F-35s is just kidding themselves.

Türkiye is not one solid body. If you will remember there was even a parallel state. No one who has the vision to be a self reliant pole in a multi-polar world will buy into a project like the F35. Yes, the military with all the influences on it and lacking a vision for independence may have approached the F35 project but that is not a firm stance with a solid basis. It was as early as 2004 when self reliance in defense sector was determined but the defense bureaucracy with all their NATO submission background did not adapt well to the new paradigm. But when the time came to decide whether to step in the trap or stay out the right decision was made. It does not take a genius to see that the US will object buying the S400 and was well within possibility that they will react without considering Türkiye's unprecedented stronger position.

 

[Zafer]

ended us up with a Kaan we are still dependent on US for its engines

LOL

 

[Iskander]

Untrue.

People genuinely believe in the thought experiment that we did all that, had ourselves removed from the program and got sanctioned under CAATSA because we actually "DIDN'T" want F-35s. This is dumb. There were other ways to remove ourselves from the program, like I don't know, changing our future planning and saying we no longer needed F-35s in our future vision.

Anyone that says Turkey willingly did all this because we DIDN'T want F-35s is just kidding themselves. It was a bluff that failed horribly, which ended us up with a Kaan we are still dependent on US for its engines, 2 batteries of S-400s we haven't used once in any theaters where they could be needed and no F-35s.

But there were other nuances. The most important thing is Turkey's right where, when and how to use its F35s. There was talk that, having acquired them, Türkiye would become dependent on Washington not only for technical reasons, but also for military-political ones. If Türkiye cannot use Turkish F35s without restrictions, then why do Türkiye need them? They even said that the Americans, if they wanted, could technically intervene or secretly obtain information from the fighter jets' computers.
It is known that the Americans, unlike other customers, made some exceptions for Israel regarding Adir avionics.
but they did not agree to Ankara's similar conditions.

Imagine: a Turkish fighter jet flies over Turkish territory, scans the area and sends this data... to Uncle Sam
Therefore, I admit that Ankara abandoned them of its own free will. If not, please provide a good reason why Türkiye chose the S400. Where did Ankara expect an air attack from?

 

[Sanchez]

But there were other nuances. The most important thing is Turkey's right where, when and how to use its F35s. There was talk that, having acquired them, Turkey would become dependent on Washington not only for technical reasons, but also for military-political ones. If Türkiye cannot use Turkish F35s without restrictions, then why do Turkey need them? They even said that the Americans, if they wanted, could technically intervene or secretly obtain information from the fighter jets' computers.
It is known that the Americans, unlike other clients, made some exceptions for Israel regarding the Adirov avionics, and Ankara refused a similar condition.

Imagine: a Turkish fighter jet flies over Turkish territory, scans the area and sends this data... to Uncle Sam...
Therefore, I admit that Ankara abandoned them of its own free will. If not, please provide a good reason why Türkiye chose the S400. Where did Türkiye expect an air attack from?

That's not an answer to my point. Yes, F-35 came with a lot of baggage. Yes, F-35 possibly had restrictions. I've been saying the same thing for more than 10 years in 3 forums. All this was known, well before Turkey opted to join the program 20 years ago. F-35 is the epitome of American geopolitical military cooperation. Plenty of countries over the years discussed getting F-35s or not, even partners in the program. Canada is one example.

Turkish dependency on US weapons didn't start with F-35s. We liberated Northern Cyprus with US weapons and accepted an embargo for it. American made tanks are deployed to Cyprus. To this day, our chief weapon when shit hits the fan in Syria and Iraq is not a TB2 or Akıncı, but an F-16 with HGK, some of the time an American made Paveway. Zafer laughs, but he also knows there is no Kaan in the next 20 years unless Americans give us F110s so we can develop Kaan.

Point is, Turkey didn't change its future planning to not procure F-35s. It tried to walk a balance between Russia and US and failed between Syria Ukraine and Iraq. Of course we can't just look at this from a procurement angle and Syrian war and 2016 coup attempt must be read together.

Up until the point US Senate and the JSF office banned Turkey from the program, Turkey was still placing new orders for F-35s, first Turkish F-35s were rolled of the assembly line and first Turkish pilots was in training in US. None of these are actions of a country that decided to NOT procure F-35. Turkey could just decide to lower its commitment to the program and HvKK could release a white paper indicating Turkey was aiming for a future with less or without any F-35s. It didn't do that. Because it was never the goal.

It wasn't a perfect feint for overall greater independence. People will forget what happened in the past and will come up with other realities where their side wasn't in the wrong but was just wronged or it was our plan in the first place. Just like they forgot about Rabia in Egypt, Saudis butchering a person in Istanbul, Mitsotakis not existing to become our best friend again. Turkish foreign policy of the last 15 years is littered with failure after failure where we were only saved from greater defeats by our own heavyweight inertia. No matter how much you fuck up, a country of 85+ million is still worth to have around at the end of the day. And at the end of the day we will gladly pay 20 billion for F-16s to not have that link to US be cut for good before it's time to do so ourselves.

 

[Zafer]

That's not an answer to my point. Yes, F-35 came with a lot of baggage. Yes, F-35 possibly had restrictions. I've been saying the same thing for more than 10 years in 3 forums. All this was known, well before Turkey opted to join the program 20 years ago. F-35 is the epitome of American geopolitical military cooperation. Plenty of countries over the years discussed getting F-35s or not, even partners in the program. Canada is one example.

Turkish dependency on US weapons didn't start with F-35s. We liberated Northern Cyprus with US weapons and accepted an embargo for it. American made tanks are deployed to Cyprus. To this day, our chief weapon when shit hits the fan in Syria and Iraq is not a TB2 or Akıncı, but an F-16 with HGK, some of the time an American made Paveway. Zafer laughs, but he also knows there is no Kaan in the next 20 years unless Americans give us F110s so we can develop Kaan.

Point is, Turkey didn't change its future planning to not procure F-35s. It tried to walk a balance between Russia and US and failed between Syria Ukraine and Iraq. Of course we can't just look at this from a procurement angle and Syrian war and 2016 coup attempt must be read together.

Up until the point US Senate and the JSF office banned Turkey from the program, Turkey was still placing new orders for F-35s, first Turkish F-35s were rolled of the assembly line and first Turkish pilots was in training in US. None of these are actions of a country that decided to NOT procure F-35. Turkey could just decide to lower its commitment to the program and HvKK could release a white paper indicating Turkey was aiming for a future with less or without any F-35s. It didn't do that. Because it was never the goal.

It wasn't a perfect feint for overall greater independence. People will forget what happened in the past and will come up with other realities where their side wasn't in the wrong but was just wronged or it was our plan in the first place. Just like they forgot about Rabia in Egypt, Saudis butchering a person in Istanbul, Mitsotakis not existing to become our best friend again. Turkish foreign policy of the last 15 years is littered with failure after failure where we were only saved from greater defeats by our own heavyweight inertia. No matter how much you fuck up, a country of 85+ million is still worth to have around at the end of the day. And at the end of the day we will gladly pay 20 billion for F-16s to not have that link to US be cut for good before it's time to do so ourselves.

There is ups and downs in everything but navigating to a high ground among too many pitfalls that the enemy paved in many decades is nothing but brilliant. Today Türkiye is at over 80% self reliant and looking to become 95% in the next 5 years. Look at other nations who are in free fall to know where we stand.

 

[Sanchez]

There is ups and downs in everything but navigating to a high ground among too many pitfalls that the enemy paved in many decades is nothing but brilliant. Today Türkiye is at over 80% self reliant and looking to become 95% in the next 5 years. Look at other nations who are in free fall to know where we stand.

This has been the plan for good and for bad for the last 50 years. Yes, it did indeed increase in scope after 2000s.

Current level of indigenization is very impressive but it also comes with lack of capabilities where we operate the oldest jet fighters in our region next to our rivals, for example. There are two reasons why Turkey is not importing as much it used to. One is indeed heavier reliance on things we build ourselves. Other is because they don't sell us things we want, like F-35s. When the F-16 deal is signed after 5 years of delays, our import rate will increase again for the upcoming 5 year period.

Goal was to move toward self reliance in time with our own resources WITHOUT losing capabilities. We have failed at that, where our ship programs are delayed, our armored vehicle programs are delayed and our aircraft programs are delayed and all our forces are downsizing. This is both to modernize the forces by lowering numbers and thus lowering costs but also because stuff we make aren't exactly that cheap either.

It's not terrible, it's not great. We will probably survive tho. I however greatly disagree that we are at a high ground geopolitically. We are making do with what we have left and a shit economy.