DUSK OVER THE NISTR
Maxim Kalashnikov
https://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/4363125.html
DUSK OVER THE NISTR
Some results of the first year of the military campaign
The development of the situation with the possible liquidation of Transnistria is just the consequences of Moscow's amazing miscalculations. The whole campaign goes into the stalemate stage.
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If the enemy decides to occupy Transnistria, then Moscow will not be able to help Tiraspol in any way. Because after leaving Kherson there is not even a theoretical possibility to break through a land corridor in Transnistria, then taking Nikolaev and Odessa. You cannot build an air bridge in Transnistria: the air defense of Ukraine in the south, in the same Bessarabia (southwest of the Odessa region), was not suppressed. Without this, our transport aircraft will not be able to pass over the Black Sea and fly to Tiraspol along the shortest path over land.
And now we will have to pay in full for the fact that in the spring of 2014, when Odessa could be taken on the move both by the transfer of troops from Pridnestrovie and by the landing of the Black Sea Fleet from the sea, our government was inactive. As we warned about it, the lost victory is severely avenged. Like a rejected woman. (In 2014, we were told that we did not understand anything. But the authorities know better).
If Transnistria turns out to be occupied by the enemy, then Moscow will not get revenge for the collapse of 1991 (as it was planned back in January 2022), but the inglorious consolidation of the results of Belovezhskaya Pushcha. With the elimination of the most important bridgehead. And with the prospect of waging a protracted, exhausting war, a real positional slaughter. Moreover, in it the Russian Federation, having against itself a bloc of countries with economies 18 times more powerful, has no chance of winning.
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Let's build a simple syllogism.
So, in order to win, the Kremlin must make fundamental decisions, carry out a real “revolution from above” in the country. (Let me not repeat what needs to be done - it has already been written many times).
From the message-2022 on February 21, we saw that fundamental and epoch-making decisions can not be expected.
Anyone can draw a conclusion.
There will be no answers in the form of nuclear weapons either. The West is no longer afraid of hints that it will burn down, and we will go to heaven. No decision has been made even to conduct real underground tests on Novaya Zemlya. For everything depends on whether the enemy conducts similar tests.
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Everything goes into the channel of an extremely dangerous and from all sides disadvantageous to the Russian protracted war. She, like quicksand, draws us in. Instead of a lifeline, “weights” of sanctions are flying to us. The plans of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (the creation of five new artillery divisions and brigades of heavy artillery of the RGVK for each), announced on December 21, 2022, indicate that the emphasis is on positional actions in the spirit of the First World War.
And since now we will have to wage an exhausting war of the "Verdun type", it is time for the authorities, as Stalin did, to thoroughly understand.
- To what extent does the production of shells correspond to the needs of the front in 15-20 million rounds per year? Is there a “shell hunger” and (if there is one) how to overcome it?
- What about the production of barrels for guns? After all, it is necessary to replace worn-out and shot barrels, and to produce new guns. For example, for new artillery divisions. What's the deal with barrel chrome? What about tungsten for special gun steels?
- How are we doing with the production of gunpowder and special chemicals (explosive for shells)?
- What are our capabilities for the repair of armored vehicles, with the production of transmissions and gearboxes for heavy vehicles?
- What about the production of microelectronics (and not only for weapons), with the production of bearings of all types?
- What volumes of equipment and machines will need to be purchased? Alas, it is inevitable for imports - because their machine tool industry has not been raised since 2000.
- What do we have with the Air Force, with military aviation? Can it provide strikes not only against decision-making centers, but also suppress the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, break up railway junction stations with a depot for changing wheelsets from Eurogauge to Russian, with a large turnout facility? Demolish the bridges across the Dnieper and securely isolate the front-line units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from bringing everything necessary to them?
We have already given an example of how Stalin thoroughly, at special meetings, understood such issues. Naturally, behind closed doors.
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If this is not done, the transition of the military campaign to the stage of an acute crisis within the country is only a matter of time. And the actions of angry patriots in this case are a separate issue. Because we only want to win.
