Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Era_shield]

Most of the link I gave comes from Western source. China maybe like to amend its GDP, but industrial exports are something that is easily traced.

One can't calculate an economy's health or even its dependence on exports by only knowing exports.

China 2023 and China of Mao is a totally different country whatsoever. China may still have some dependence on the West on some (like high end chips) but the other, they're self sufficient.

Mao wasn't in power in 1979 bud. China has been exactly the same system of government since the commies took over, but since 1979 it has become much richer thanks to the West, and the US in particular. Underneath that Western-derived success, it's still the same incompetent and corrupt Marxist state.

And who has the balls to attack China supply line anyway ? The only one mad enough to attack China's shipping will be pirates, which is no biggie. A state actor wanting to blockade China equals war, because in the law of war blockade is an act of war. That's another matter.

Anyone could attack China's supply lines and China could do nothing about it except use nukes, which would be worse for them than taking the L. And yes, pirates would become a huge problem for China. You're still seeing the world from the point of view of global commerce policed by the US. Once that stops, pirates stop being "no biggie" and start becoming a huge problem for every country that's unable to protect their shipping, which mean any country without a large blue water navy, which means China.

 

[Ryder]

One can't calculate an economy's health or even its dependence on exports by only knowing exports.

Mao wasn't in power in 1979 bud. China has been exactly the same system of government since the commies took over, but since 1979 it has become much richer thanks to the West, and the US in particular. Underneath that Western-derived success, it's still the same incompetent and corrupt Marxist state.

Anyone could attack China's supply lines and China could do nothing about it except use nukes, which would be worse for them than taking the L. And yes, pirates would become a huge problem for China. You're still seeing the world from the point of view of global commerce policed by the US. Once that stops, pirates stop being "no biggie" and start becoming a huge problem for every country that's unable to protect their shipping, which mean any country without a large blue water navy, which means China.

Lets not forget the Sino-Soviet split.

How the West backed China against the Soviet Union.

Then there is the issue of Israel selling military tech to the Chinese right under the USA's nose.

 

[GoatsMilk]

China is not a country where information unflattering to the regime is freely collected and disseminated. One needs to take their official data, including economic data, with a huge pile of salt. For example, in recent years China had been faking their births/deaths data, forcing them to make a sudden huge correction last year.

And of course, China is a totalitarian Marxist state. To see how well that type of government runs without the help of the West, just look at China pre-1979 - it's just endless famine and poverty.

Militarily, China has no significant blue water navy and requires huge imports of oil from the distant ME and elsewhere. This means that if the US decides to stop policing China's global commerce, China will be very vulnerable to supply line attacks by almost anyone.

One could argue that if China were being rational, they would quickly side with the West. But all that would really do is buy them a small amount of time - China is demographically collapsing and nothing can be done to stop it. So who's to say what decisions its ruler will make?

Chinese seeing the Russian nightmare are going to use it to gain personal concessions. I don't see them doing anything significant that could cause major blowback. In a similar fashion to how Putin used Assads civil war to opportunistically gain concessions while screwing Assad and Iran in the process too. China may attempt to play the same game with Putin.

 

[Gary]

One can't calculate an economy's health or even its dependence on exports by only knowing exports.

True, but it can't be overlooked either. And my post is suggesting China's manufacturing in relations to a potential supply of explosives for Russia's use in Ukraine. Which if Mao say yes, would be a big problem.

Mao wasn't in power in 1979 bud.

Yes but he's in power pre 1979

China has been exactly the same system of government since the commies took over, but since 1979 it has become much richer thanks to the West, and the US in particular. Underneath that Western-derived success, it's still the same incompetent and corrupt Marxist state.

Not quite, Mao successor Deng famously stated what China economy is after the death of Mao.

It's based on a quote from late leader Deng Xiaoping in the 1960s – "Black cat or white cat, if it can catch mice, it's a good cat."
In other words, no matter whether it's planned economy or market economy, an economy is only a means of allocating resources – it has nothing to do with the political system.

China is politically commie, economically capitalist. Its very different from Mao.

If China is incompetent then they'll not be what they are today, and I'm too lazy to list all of them.

Anyone could attack China's supply lines

I could technically hit Khabib Nurmagomedov, am not sure what happens next.

and China could do nothing about it except use nukes,

Safe for the US, not any country that have the capacity to actually do something physically serious to China.

France, Australia board or seize China's box ship ? They can but then Chinese destroyers and frigates will be everywhere hunting their box ships as well. And both country know they don't have enough hulls to compete with China.

which would be worse for them than taking the L. And yes, pirates would become a huge problem for China. You're still seeing the world from the point of view of global commerce policed by the US. Once that stops, pirates stop being "no biggie" and start becoming a huge problem for every country that's unable to protect their shipping, which mean any country without a large blue water navy, which means China.

There's only few Pirates hotspot in the planet, Somalia, Malacca strait like that. If necessary China could just station their men or patrol those waters or struck a deal with countries in the region to step up patrol in exchange for money. The Malacca strait for example is patrolled jointly in coordination from 3 SEA navies (Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore).

Also piracy goes both way, I don't see pirates discriminate China's COSCO, Germany's HAPAG or France's CMA CGMs ships.

 

[Gary]

Which if Mao say yes, would be a big problem

Damn it.....I mean Xi

 

[Era_shield]

If China is incompetent then they'll not be what they are today, and I'm too lazy to list all of them.

Again, look to China pre-1979 to see what its economy is like without Western support.

France, Australia board or seize China's box ship ? They can but then Chinese destroyers and frigates will be everywhere hunting their box ships as well. And both country know they don't have enough hulls to compete with China.

And again - China has no significant blue water navy. They won't be hunting much of anything outside of their territorial waters. The small number of their ships which are blue-water capable are nowhere near enough to establish security for Chinese commercial shipping.

Anyway this is Russia-Ukraine thread. Getting back on topic now.

 

[Madokafc]

China entering the chat is something you wouldn't want to fancy about. China isn't as dependant on the West as it was at the past.

China's GDP is export dependant yes, but its export as percentage of GDP has been steadily declining from peak 37% in 2007 to 20% of the economy as of 2022. China's exports are mainly ASEAN, EU and U.S, while public consumption is growing steadily towards 38.2%, if its not because of the Pandemic they could have reached 40% if not more by now. Quite small for OECD standard but we're talking a country of 1.4B people here.

For one I don't know why would China let go of its trade with EU+US for the sake of failing countries like Russian federation, but if they do, its not something that they could not handle.

China is the world's foremost manufacturing juggernaut, dwarfing that of the US and EU combined. You want to go toe to toe with them ? haha good luck, in 2021 alone China's manufacturing accounts for 30% of the world total, followed by the US at 16.5% and Japan at only 7%.

The West could have do the same trick they did with Russia, that is pulling out companies, but the real estate (factories, equipment, infrastructure) will be left behind in China. In other words, the brand will leave but the equipment stays. And unlike Russia, China is self dependant on many machinery tools and equipment (robots). Even to this day we could see Russian copycats of Western brands in the country.

EU exports to PRC is at $600B daily while China to EU is at $1.3T. Theoretically China would lose more in a decoupling with the West, but its not going to be all apocalyptic for the Chinese. The Russian only contracts by 2% last year, not 20 like earlier thought. China is even more resilient than Russia is.

Russian economy shrank 2.1% in 2022, much less than expected

The economy defied fears of a recession and previous predictions that it would contract by more than 12 percent.

www.aljazeera.com

Just to give an idea of what a competition with China will look like, lets take a look at the number of industrial robots.

China again leads by half of the world's total

Almost Half of Industrial Robots Are in China - Engineering.com

A 5-year plan aims to have robots compensate for the country’s decreasing workforce.

www.engineering.com

Steel production again China by quite a margin at 1 Mil metric tons compared to EU's 2nd place at 100K metric tons.

List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is just two example, if I want to translate this into artillery shells produced, then its suffice to say that Ukraine will be in deep trouble.

I might not know much about artillery production of China compared to the US/West. But as a Indo-Pac country citizen, I took notice at the two powers shipbuilding. The US commissioned an Arleigh Burke (9000tons) at a rate of 1.5 hulls per year, The Chinese last year commissioned 4x Type 052D (7500 tons) and 3x Type 055 (11.000 tons). If we were to translate the steel used on those ships into shells it will be all to funny.

The question is not if China can win the hypothetical supply game, but will they do it ? Will they lose dollars for saving Russia ? The wise minds might says no, but geopolitical moves are not always motivated by wisdom alone. Maybe provoking China in regards to Taiwan by visiting representative is not the smartest thing to do right now. I heard Xi Jinping doesn't really care much about economy to national dignity. Looks like (if true) Xi is looking at a game of tit for tat with West

There is report about China moves against Taiwan in which should take place earlier compared to the analysis., China giving alms to the Russian should protect their rear land border when they are in conflict against US and allies.

Expect larger conflict if Taiwan crisis is reached boiling points as North Korea should also acted according the Russian and China wishes to create much larger front and disperse US and allies attention

Well i don't want Taiwan crisis is reached the boiling points right now and evolved into fullblown conflict in which involved the US, and her Pacific allies like South Korea and Japan against China and in some extent North Korea all the while conflict between Russia and Ukraine still happened. Thus there is always chance if the Taiwan and Korean peninsula conflict happened they would be spread even all the way toward South Asia continent (yes China Pakistan vs India) and other hot spot....

 

[Kathirz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1629810973400866819

 

[Ecderha]

quoting:
"Norwegian 73year-old absolute legend! He found out where the ruzZian diplomats live in Oslo why they are not kicked out yet"

Children of Ukraine are still forced to wake up to air raids through a whole year after the full scale invasion.

” Says Kjetil who is not worried about getting arrested, but rather that people will start to forget about the war."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1629667808563871745

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1629898686821007360

 

[Nilgiri]

Its been 1 year since the VDV got curb stomped.

Time to relive this song.

Props to the random anonymous legend that changed VDV status in wiki to "critically endangered" and then "extinct" (iirc) lmao.

I could feel from so far away the cope and seethe of so many tankies by that alone.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1629898686821007360

I was about to post, and you beat me to it.

The BYPOL initiative reports that a Russian military A-50 AEW&C aircraft was blown up at Machulishchy military airfield this morning.
According to BYPOL, the front and center parts of the aircraft, avionics and radar antenna were damaged.
1/3

“The damage is serious, the aircraft is definitely not flying anywhere anymore. The accident occurred while snowplows were working near the aircraft. [...] Belarusian partisans are consistent in expelling fascists from their land,” BYPOL writes.
2/3

Thus, BYPOL confirmed and significantly supplemented the information previously published by the Belarusian Hajun that A-50 aircraft was damaged.
3/3

 

[Nilgiri]

Damn it.....I mean Xi

Chinuh will grow largeuh!
We have big plans!

 

[Heartbang]

I was about to post, and you beat me to it.

The BYPOL initiative reports that a Russian military A-50 AEW&C aircraft was blown up at Machulishchy military airfield this morning.
According to BYPOL, the front and center parts of the aircraft, avionics and radar antenna were damaged.
1/3

“The damage is serious, the aircraft is definitely not flying anywhere anymore. The accident occurred while snowplows were working near the aircraft. [...] Belarusian partisans are consistent in expelling fascists from their land,” BYPOL writes.
2/3

Thus, BYPOL confirmed and significantly supplemented the information previously published by the Belarusian Hajun that A-50 aircraft was damaged.
3/3

That's the end of Russia's AWACS capabilities, right?

 

[Relic]

Expect the official fall of Bakhmut pver the next couple days, as Russia pushes from the north and breaks through the last lines of defense, and Ukraine finishes their tactical withdrawal back towards Chasiv Yar and the high ground, where they've been preparing new defensive positions for about 2 months. As we always knew, Bakhmut would eventually fall, but the key was to hold on for as long as possible, while losing As few troops as was / is manageable.

Russia will chalk the fall of Bakhmut up as a win, but they will have taken the destroyed city at an incredibly high price in terms of loss of life and supplies, while it's estimated that 45k+ Ukrainian troops (of the 65k that were originally committed to the region) have been able to successfully withdraw, allowing them to set up for the next battles, as Russia tries to push towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Ukraine has been using defense in depth for the entirety of the conflict to this point. Successfully, slowly giving up ground through organized, tactical withdrawal, forcing the Russians through a meat grinder and exhausting the Russian supplies by further stressing their logistical chain with deep strikes behind their lines.

Remember that time is on Ukraine's side. Their army continues to get better training, better armored vehicles and artillery, as well as better technology, while Russia grinds through its best forces and equipment and has to replace it with lesser capable versions of both. Chasiv Yar is the next major battle folks, we'll be hearing about that one well into the spring. Expect high casualties on both sides, sadly, but I do suspect that it's going to be absolute grind for the Russians yet again.

 

[Nilgiri]

That's the end of Russia's AWACS capabilities, right?

They have 15 or so of these birds. So they are down to 14? I would assume availability is around half.

 

[Relic]

I've mentioned something along this line before, but I think it remains true. In order for Ukraine to be able to go on a lasting offensive that the Russians will struggle to stop, Ukraine will need more Western MBTs, IFVs, APCs and artillery. Now, the artillery is slowly arriving and plans have already been made to for Ukraine to receive more as it comes available, but it's another thing entirely when it comes to the rest of what they need. It's one thing to suggest that Ukraine needs more, it's another thing entirely to suggest where they can come from / who can reasonably supply them. Below is what I personally think Ukraine is going to require in order to not only initiate an offensive, but to maintain it into the summer.

Below is how many have been committed to Ukraine in the coming months vs what they need. Note that I did not count items that have been committed in the past and are currently in service with the Ukrainian Army on the battlefield. Everything below is "new" equipment to retrofit new Ukrainian fighting units.

179 / 300 Main Battle Tanks
74 Leopard 2 A4/5/6 (Germany, Poland, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Portugal)
31 Abrams M1A2 (USA)
30 PT-91 Twardy (Poland)
14 Challenger 2 (Great Britain)

228 /400 Infantry Fighting Vehicles
113 Bradley 2ODS (USA)
50 CV-90 (Sweden)
40 Marder (Germany)
25 AMX-10P (France)

500+ / 500 Armored Personnel Carriers
90 Stryker (USA)
200 BMC Kirpi (Turkey)
200 MaxxPro MRAP (USA)
50 Mastiff (Great Britain)

As we can see, Ukraine needs a further commitment of another 121 tanks. Note that I did not include the 30 T-72s that Poland is donating, nor the 90+ T-72s that the Czech Republic is consistently repairing / upgrading and sending to Ukraine as those tanks will most likely be sent to backfill losses from existing battalions / brigades using already using them on the battlefield. You will also see that Ukraine needs another 172 IFVs, where as they already have more than they need in terms of APCs (so much so that I didn't even mention all that have been sent / will be sent).

Now let's look at the countries that can realistically provide the MBTs and IFVs that Ukraine is currently missing....

USA: The Americans have already committed 31 Abrams M1A2 MBTs and 113 Bradley 2ODS IFVs (as well as Stryker APCs). This is a substantial commitment, but in order for Ukraine to receive the numbers they need the Americans will have to double the amount they are willing to send. They have thousands of both the Bradleys and Abrams' in storage, and sending a further 31 Abrams and 113 Bradleys simply requires the political will to do so. All of their M1A1 and early model M1A2 MBTs are set to be retired / replaced and they've already ordered 700+ new Bradleys as they phase out their Bradley 2ODS models.

Great Britain: The Brits do not plan to upgrade all of their Challenger 2's into the new Challenger 3's. In fact, about 50 of them will be retired rather than upgraded. This alone is reason for Britain to commit a further 13 Challenger 2's to Ukraine, completing a full Ukrainian battalion of 31 Challenger 2 tanks. Furthermore, Britain is in the process of replacing their 700+ Warrior IFVs, with new Boxer IFVs. The Boxers are set to begin arriving in 2023, which means they can start donating / selling some of their Warrior IFVs to Ukraine right now. I'm calling for Britain to donate 50 Warrior IFVs and provide Ukraine with training for them.

Germany: While I doubt the German Government will send more of its Leopard 2A6 tanks than the 18 they've already committed, what they really need to do it pay Rheinmetall to expedite the process of sending 20 of the stored Leopard 2A4s that they have in storage, bringing the German commitment of MBTs to 38. That's the easiest way for Ukraine to get 20 more Leo 2's without any having to come from anyone's direct use stockpiles. Furthermore, Germany is also phasing out their Marder IFV with more Boxer IFVs. Germany has already committed 40 Marders to Ukraine, I'd like to see them add 20 more to that commitment, for a total of 60.

France: I don't expect the French to send their Leclerc MBTs to Ukraine, so I'm not going to suggest it here. The 40 AMX10-RCs they're sending are a nice infantry support vehicle and I'd like to see the French commit 20 more of them as they phase them out of military use. Where France can really help is by sending more of their AMX-10P IFVs. They have over 300 of them and they retired them from service in 2015. They quietly committed 25 of them last month. Double that commitment to 50 of them and despite being old, they could significantly help bolster a Ukrainian counter offensive.

Canada: With the arrival of American Strykers to Ukraine, Canada has the opportunity to send their IFV variant, the LAV to Ukraine. The Canadians are in the process of upgrading hundreds of their LAVs to 6.0 standard, but more than 100 are slated not to be upgraded from their current version. These would be an excellent IFV to bolster a Ukrainian offensive. 40-50 of them could be sent by Canada, if the political will to do so existed. Furthermore, Canada needs to make a new order for Leopard 2A7 tanks. It's painfully obvious that this should / will happen. Currently, they field 20 Leopard 2A6 MBTs as their front line tank, but they have approximately 40-50 Leopard 2A4 MBTs in their inventory that are costing them more to maintain than to fix them and send some to Ukraine. Canada has committed 8 of those Leopard 2A4's to Ukraine. I'm suggesting that they should fix an additional 8 and ship those as well, for a total of 16.

Poland: The Poles have already committed A LOT. Nobody can argue that point. But I'm calling on them to send a further 30 PT-91 Twardy MBTs to Ukraine. Is that a lot to ask? Yes, but I'm not asking them to do it without receiving compensation. I'd like to see the USA donate 30 of their M1A2 Abrams to Poland, for immediate use by the Polish Army (who has bought more than 250 already). In exchange for the American M1A2's they will then have the ability to ship an equal amount of PT-91 Twardys in an exchange similar to what Germany has previously done with other countries. I think that deal works best for everyone. Poland gets a better tank, quicker and for free. USA sends their MBT to a NATO member who is buying them anyways, rather than into Ukraine, which they don't really want do because of the depleted uranium armor that most of them use... And Ukraine gets more PT-91's, a very capable tank that they already know how to use and fix.

Spain: Spain has 50-100 Leopard 2A4 tanks in storage. They need to be overhauled and fixed up before they could be fit for service, but the Spaniards should absolutely make that commitment. They've committed 10 of them so far. That's a decent start. I'd like to see them double that commitment to 20 and commit to getting them all fixed an shipped by the summer. Again, they can do it if they have the political will to make it happen.

Finland: I fully understand that you share a border with Russia, therefore, it's only reasonable that we ask less of you than other countries. Especially because you're not yet in NATO. With that said, Finland has committed 3 Leo 2A4 of their 200 Leo 2A4/6s to Ukraine. I'd like to see that number increase to 10 in order to match the Swedish commitment of 10. A big ask, yes. But this is an important time.

If you do the math, Ukraine gets to the numbers they need for a major offensive, fairly easily, if countries supporting them just find the political will to send MBTs and IFVs in numbers that they have / can afford to send. Beyond these commitments we know Ukraine is going to continue to receive T-72 tanks from other sources, a random assortment of towed and self-propelled artillery and a variety of support vehicles.

 

[contricusc]

I think it would be nice if NATO would broker a deal where both Greece and Turkey donate a fixed numbr of Leo 2A4s, something like 10 tanks each. This way, the power balance between the two is not affected, while more Leos are sent to Ukraine, especially since both Greece and Turkey are among the biggest operators of Leo 2 tanks.

 

[chibiyabi]

I think it would be nice if NATO would broker a deal where both Greece and Turkey donate a fixed numbr of Leo 2A4s, something like 10 tanks each. This way, the power balance between the two is not affected, while more Leos are sent to Ukraine, especially since both Greece and Turkey are among the biggest operators of Leo 2 tanks.

rather than pursue another MBT, UA should get more bradleys in huge number...bradleys 30 mm auto canon more flexible againts human wave and poor protected thin can russian tanks...

 

[Lordimperator]

equipped with TOW would be nice

get more bradleys in huge number.