Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

We're expecting another major military aid package from the United States to be announced this week, after the latest Ramstein meeting concluded recently. Expect the package to be substantial and include a wide variety of weapons and armored vehicles. Furthermore, the EU has come to agreement on a plan to provide Ukraine upwards of 1 million, 155mm artillery shells in 2023. The expected cost is between 2-4 Billion Euros. In conjunction with the U.S. ramping up production, the West is hoping to keep Ukraine's artillery capacity in the 4000-5000 round per day range for the remainder of 2023.

Here is a quick reminder the Western aid expect to arrive in Ukraine during the first half of this year. Note that much of this aid has already been pledged, but there is often significant lag time before is shows up on the battlefield. Remember, this list isn't comprehensive relative to what has been pledged, but a lot of other equipment won't arrive until the 2nd half of 2023 and into 2024. I also did not include equipment such as artillery that was purchased in 2022, but does not have a public delivery date mentioned. Finally, this list is no comprehensive, rather it's designed to highlight key donations and it does not include any weapons systems that have not been made public, which actually account for a significant quantity of the overall military air for Ukraine.

Fighter Jets
20-25x Mig-29 (Poland)
13x Mig-29 (Slovakia)

Main Battle Tanks / Tank Destroyers
28x Challenger 2 MBTs (Britain)
30x PT-91 Twardy MBTs (Poland)
30x T-72 MBTs (Poland)
30-40x T-72 (Czech Republic, USA, Netherlands)- Part of a weekly delivery schedule throughout 2023.
74x Leopard 2A4/A6 MBTs (Germany, Poland, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Portugal)
31x Abrams M1A2 MBTs (USA)- Note that the USA is trying to expedite this shipment
40x AMX-10 RC (France)
100x Leopard 1 MBTs (Germany, Denmark, Netherlands)- 150-200 total. Many will arrive in late 2023.

Infantry Fighting Vehicles / Armored Personnel Carriers
109x Bradley M2 IFV (USA)
50x CV90 IFV (Sweden)
40x Marder IFV (Germany)
25x AMX-10P IFV (France)
90x Stryker APC (USA)
37x Cougar MRAP APC (USA)
290x Unidentified APC (USA)
50-100x Kirpi APC (Turkey)- Part of package of 200 announced. 50-100 have already been sent.
20x ACMAT APC (France)

Artillery
20-30x D30 Towed Howitzers (Estonia)
24x FH-70 Towed Howitzers (Estonia)
19x CAESAR Self-Propelled Howitzers (Denmark)
18x M109A6 Self-Propelled Howitzers (USA)
30x AS-90 Self-Propelled Howitzers (Britain)
8-12x Archer Self-Propelled Howitzers (Sweden)
36x L119 Towed Howitzers (USA)

Air Defense Systems
8x AN/TWQ-1 Avenger Mobile Air Defense Systems (USA)
2x MIM-23 HAWK Air Defense Systems (USA)
3x IRIS-T SLM Air Defense Systems (Germany)
4-5x NASAMS Air Defense Systems (USA, Norway, Canada)- 9 pledged, but not all will arrive in 2023
1x SAMP/T Air Defense System (France, Italy)
3x MIM 104-Patriot Air Defense Systems (USA, Germany, Netherlands)

Loitering Munitions (Kamikaze Drones)
Unspecified quantity of WB Electronics Warmate Drones (Poland)
Unspecified quantity of Phoenix Ghost Drones (USA)
Unspecified quantity of AeroVironment Switchblade 300 Drones (USA)
Unspecified quantity of AeroVironment Switchblade 600 Drones (USA)

Specialized Weapons
Unspecified quantity of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (USA)
Unspecified quantity of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (USA)
Unspecified quantity of High Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (USA)
Unspecified quantity of 155mm Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems (USA)
Unspecified quantity of 155mm Excalibur GPS guided munitions (USA)
Unspecified quantity of 155mm SMArt GPS guided munitions (Germany)
Unspecified quantity of 155mm Vulcano guided munitions (Germany)

 

[Era_shield]

Between the Polish threat of joining the war, the sanctions, the ICC prosecuting Putin, etc, there are fewer and fewer disincentives remaining to prevent Russia from using nukes. The West should tread carefully.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Between the Polish threat of joining the war, the sanctions, the ICC prosecuting Putin, etc, there are fewer and fewer disincentives remaining to prevent Russia from using nukes. The West should tread carefully.

Billionaires don't want to die. Nuclear war means the billionaire class of Russia will die. It won't happen. They are happy wasting the peasants but the billionaire class love life too much, especially the western lifestyle where most of their families live.

Anyway if Ukraine falls, its inevitable that war will come to Poland's doorstep at some point. Then what? don't fight because of nuclear weapons? Keep allowing Russia easy victories because of threat of nuclear weapons?

The reality is that Poland should acquire nuclear weapons just like Turkiye should, so that if they need to fight Russia directly they can guarantee that the war stays traditional.

The moment the war ends in Ukraine, Ukraine should also acquire nuclear weapons. We pretty much reached a point where its safer for most nations to have nuclear weapons then how it is now, where a few mad dog nations can threaten the rest of the world with theirs at the expense of everyone else.

 

[Era_shield]

Billionaires don't want to die. Nuclear war means the billionaire class of Russia will die. It won't happen. They are happy wasting the peasants but the billionaire class love life too much, especially the western lifestyle where most of their families live.

Anyway if Ukraine falls, its inevitable that war will come to Poland's doorstep at some point. Then what? don't fight because of nuclear weapons? Keep allowing Russia easy victories because of threat of nuclear weapons?

The reality is that Poland should acquire nuclear weapons just like Turkiye should, so that if they need to fight Russia directly they can guarantee that the war stays traditional.

The moment the war ends in Ukraine, Ukraine should also acquire nuclear weapons. We pretty much reached a point where its safer for most nations to have nuclear weapons then how it is now, where a few mad dog nations can threaten the rest of the world with theirs at the expense of everyone else.

If the sanctions bite the oligarghs and Putin hard enough, their Western lives would become untenable and they could see victory through nuclear attack as an option to avert catastrophe (their own personal/collective catastrophe), especially if social unrest in Russia becomes widespread. Why would they die? The West isn't likely to start nuclear armageddon over Ukraine, and the oligarchs know this and might even bet on it. A cornered animal is dangerous.

 

[MaciekRS]

If the sanctions bite the oligarghs and Putin hard enough, their Western lives would become untenable and they could see victory through nuclear attack as an option to avert catastrophe (their own personal/collective catastrophe), especially if social unrest in Russia becomes widespread. Why would they die? The West isn't likely to start nuclear armageddon over Ukraine, and the oligarchs know this and might even bet on it. A cornered animal is dangerous.

There is no option for "nuclear victory" for Russia.
Its a suicide for a country, for their oligarhs and even China will say just BYE BYE and let the west to do whatever.
Russians know it, they even stop to use this threat as its useless.

 

[Era_shield]

There is no option for "nuclear victory" for Russia.
Its a suicide for a country, for their oligarhs and even China will say just BYE BYE and let the west to do whatever.
Russians know it, they even stop to use this threat as its useless.

Example scenario: Russia suddenly removes its forces from Bakhmut, perhaps after staging a false flag attack of some kind blaming Ukraine for a gas attack/dirty bomb attack or something along those lines. It nukes Bahkmut and flattens it, and says that any Ukrainian cities that resist "demilitarisation" will get the same treatment. What can the West do? Sanction it? Demand the arrest of Putin? Cut it off from international trade? If all these things have been done already - which isn't the case yet but it might be soon - there is nothing more the West can do other than to nuke Russia, which they will not do.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Example scenario: Russia suddenly removes its forces from Bakhmut, perhaps after staging a false flag attack of some kind blaming Ukraine for a gas attack/dirty bomb attack or something along those lines. It nukes Bahkmut and flattens it, and says that any Ukrainian cities that resist "demilitarisation" will get the same treatment. What can the West do? Sanction it? Demand the arrest of Putin? Cut it off from international trade? If all these things have been done already - which isn't the case yet but it might be soon - there is nothing more the West can do other than to nuke Russia, which they will not do.

I suspect if they ever drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine, soon after the Ukranians will drop one on Russia. Because its a given that if they get nuked the first thing they will look to do is get their own and then drop it on moscow. And most of the western world will be happy to either help them or look the other way as they make them.

I know if Russians ever dropped a nuke on Turkiye, you just know what the Turks will look to do next. Russians are not going kill millions of our people and then sleep safe at night over such an evil act. Ukrainians are there brothers, expect them to give back to Russia what they gave to them in such a situation.

Nuclear weapons are only good as a threat and a hedge, but to actually use them will create a losing proposition.

 

[Dmr]

Example scenario: Russia suddenly removes its forces from Bakhmut, perhaps after staging a false flag attack of some kind blaming Ukraine for a gas attack/dirty bomb attack or something along those lines. It nukes Bahkmut and flattens it, and says that any Ukrainian cities that resist "demilitarisation" will get the same treatment. What can the West do? Sanction it? Demand the arrest of Putin? Cut it off from international trade? If all these things have been done already - which isn't the case yet but it might be soon - there is nothing more the West can do other than to nuke Russia, which they will not do.

Using nuke (even a small one) is guaranteed to make Russia global pariah(more than it already is) that no one will want to have nothing to do with,not ever their closest allies and be isolated till some major revolution takes place there.Second result would be that such a decision will be the end for the ones that gave and executed that order and will also ensure almost every country develops or buys nukes.
It will make Npt non existing with every single country aspiring to become nuclear power.Ukraine,Poland,Turkey,Iran...The current nuclear powers will have no means to enforce NPT when dozens of countries try to get wmd's in the same time(and with a good reason).
The global implications of a such move are so big that i doubt that even Russian generals would execute such an order if they get it from Putin.First because it is against Russian law(only allowed to use it if Russia is attacked with such a weapon or the existence of the country itself is in question) and second because they know what that would mean for the Russian people and their future.

 

[Era_shield]

I suspect if they ever drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine, soon after the Ukranians will drop one on Russia. Because its a given that if they get nuked the first thing they will look to do is get their own and then drop it on moscow. And most of the western world will be happy to either help them or look the other way as they make them.

I know if Russians ever dropped a nuke on Turkiye, you just know what the Turks will look to do next. Russians are not going kill millions of our people and then sleep safe at night over such an evil act. Ukrainians are there brothers, expect them to give back to Russia what they gave to them in such a situation.

Nuclear weapons are only good as a threat and a hedge, but to actually use them will create a losing proposition.

If Ukraine somehow nuked Russia in response, Russia's oligarchs and leaders would have to choose to either dissolve their government or retaliate by turning Ukraine into into a glass crater and possibly also striking one or more of Ukraine's major weapons providers. This is simply a nuclear armageddon scenario. Would you entrust the entire world's future upon the selflessness of Russia's oligarchs? No sane decision maker in the West would even allow Ukraine to engage in it, much less precipitate it themselves.

 

[Era_shield]

Using nuke (even a small one) is guaranteed to make Russia global pariah(more than it already is)

"More than it already is" is my point - if the West goes too far, there won't be any "more" left for Russia to sink and therefore no deterrent. And even full isolation might not deter them - North Korea has existed for decades in spite of being a fully isolated pariah state.

 

[GoatsMilk]

If Ukraine somehow nuked Russia in response, Russia's oligarchs and leaders would have to choose to either dissolve their government or retaliate by turning Ukraine into into a glass crater and possibly also striking one or more of Ukraine's major weapons providers. This is simply a nuclear armageddon scenario. Would you entrust the entire world's future upon the selflessness of Russia's oligarchs? No sane decision maker in the West would even allow Ukraine to engage in it, much less precipitate it themselves.

The point is that you are asking Russia to end herself by nuking another nation, because thats what its going to set in motion. Russia is not going to drop nukes and then turn into the USA. It drops nukes and its going to be completely isolated from the world and the nations who don't isolate her like China will screw her corpse for every benefit until no life remains.

Ukraine was meant to be a 3 day war, today all the Russians can only cling to are threats of nuclear war. They failed big time and they will continue to fail if they chase those sorts of nuclear dreams.

As far as i'm concerned the nuclear threat is a spent idea. If it happens, goodbye Russia.

 

[Dmr]

"More than it already is" is my point - if the West goes too far, there won't be any "more" left for Russia to sink and therefore no deterrent.

China,India and even Iran will distance themselves from Russia and the massive sh..tstorm it will recieve.

North Korea has existed for decades in spite of being a fully isolated pariah state.

China has been helping NK both publicly and covertly and it has a lot to do with the fact that people there have not starved to death yet.
Something Russia will not get if it starts throwing nukes,just like NK wouldn't if they throw one.China will be to busy planning how much of Russia's territory to take in the aftermath of the inevitable civil war that will ensue there after full isolation from the rest of the world.Extreme poverty and 100's of ethnic groups,(many which consider Russians occupiers) will not end well.

 

[GoatsMilk]

China,India and even Iran will distance themselves from Russia and the massive sh..tstorm it will recieve.

China has been helping NK both publicly and covertly and it has a lot to do with the fact that people there have not starved to death yet.
Something Russia will not get if it starts throwing nukes,just like NK wouldn't if they throw one.If fact China will be to busy planning how much of Russia's territory to take in the aftermath of the inevitable civil war that will ensue there after full isolation from the rest of the world.Extreme poverty and 100's of ethnic groups,(many which consider Russians occupiers) will not end well.

China will screw Russia economically for a few decades first. After they've screwed her they will then make offers to lend Russia money for land. The more Russia finds herself being screwed by the east, she will have to lower her gaze in the west.

You may even find a situation where the western part of Russia turns into a new Belarus dominated by china and propped up to be used against Europe.

The point really being this, using nuclear weapons is a very dangerous game for Russia. More dangerous to the long term existence of Russia then Ukraine. You don't use nuclear weapons to destroy your own nation.

 

[Relic]

New military aid package for Ukraine announced by the USA this morning. Total value of the package is $350 million and will come from Presidential Drawdown Authority of existing weapons stocks. It's the 34th drawdown sent from the USA since the outset of Russia's invasion.

- Undisclosed quantity of GMLRS (HIMARS ammunition)
- Undisclosed quantity of 155mm artillery rounds
- Undisclosed quantity of HARM missiles
- Undisclosed quantity of 25mm ammunition (Bradley ammunition)
- Undisclosed quantity of 60mm mortar rounds
- Undisclosed quantity of 81mm mortar rounds
- Undisclosed quantity of AT-4 anti-armor weapons
- Undisclosed quantity of small arms + munitions
- Undisclosed quantity of grenade launchers + munitions
- Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing
- Heavy fuel tankers
- Thermal imagery systems, night vision optics and laser range finders
- Undisclosed number of Riverine patrol boats
- Equipment for vehicle diagnostic and repair
- Spare parts and other field equipment

DOD Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

The Defense Department announced the authorization of a presidential drawdown of security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

Also, announced today by the EU is an 18 country coalition to create / provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition (mostly 155mm and 152mm ammunition) over the next 12 months. The total package is will cost 2 Billion Euros. The 18 countries include 17 members of the EU and Norway. The USA, Britain, France and Australia have separate plans in place to provide Ukraine with ammunition.

Below are the 18 countries that signed the agreement.
- Germany
- Austria
- Belgium
- Croatia
- Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Norway
- Finland
- France
- Greece
- Luxembourg
- Sweden
- Netherlands
- Malta
- Portugal
- Romania
- Slovakia
- Estonia

https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/2023/03/20/eda-brings-together-18-countries-for-common-procurement-of-ammunition

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukraine conflict: North Macedonia confirms transfer of Su-25s to Ukraine, Mi-24 attack helicopters may follow

North Macedonia has donated Sukhoi Su-25 ‘Frogfoot' ground attack aircraft to Ukraine, Minister of Defence of North Macedonia, Slavjanka Petrovska said on 14 March. The...

www.janes.com

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1636393830004948992

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637899908475748352

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637900943730565121

 

[Relic]

Ukraine conflict: North Macedonia confirms transfer of Su-25s to Ukraine, Mi-24 attack helicopters may follow

North Macedonia has donated Sukhoi Su-25 ‘Frogfoot' ground attack aircraft to Ukraine, Minister of Defence of North Macedonia, Slavjanka Petrovska said on 14 March. The...

www.janes.com

North Macedonia has a total or 12 MI-24 attack helicopters, 8 of which are currently grounded (with no plans of ungrounding them) due to a lack of spare parts and cost of overhaul. I'd like to see those helicopters go to Ukraine, even if Ukraine has to use money from the European security building capacity to compensate the North Macedonians for them. Ukraine has Allies that will be willing to donate the spare parts necessary to get the majority of the fleet airborne again. A donation similar to the one that Croatia recently made with its MI-8 helicopters that they were retiring, would be outstanding.

As Ukraine looks to go on the offensive, they will be using a combined arms approach and close air support (CAS) will be vitally important to assaulting built up Russian defenses. Ukraine already operates the MI-24, which remains one of the better attack helicopters in the world today, and would certainly welcome some additional firepower in that respect.

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637745269289746437