Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

UkroTurk

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They note that the occupiers are probably preparing the ground for a summer offensive.
Moscow’s strategy covers both increased air strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities and front-line “achievements” - for example, the capture of the city of Chasov Yar (the occupiers are set to take it before May 9).
The latter will open the way for Russia to occupy the entire Donetsk region - analysts have repeatedly noted this. Although, as of April 21, Chasov Yar is controlled by the Ukrainian army.





with Ukraine running low on artillery rounds, they will need to shift and adopt a new strategy, perhaps leveraging tactics more in line with American military doctrine. This shift emphasizes defensive actions that stall enemy advances, while simultaneously maintaining the ability to quickly transition to offense, allowing Ukraine to punch holes in the stretched Russian lines. Such an offense would not only target weaker portions in the Russian offense but may also involve moving into the Crimean Peninsula. This in turn would allow the Ukrainian forces to envelope Russian forces, disrupt Russian momentum, and help Ukraine regain the initiative on the battlefield. Importantly, these tactics rely less heavily on artillery and more on maneuver elements like armor and infantry.
 
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Soldier30

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Footage of combat work in Ukraine, Russian BMP-2M, the location of the shooting is not reported. BMP-2M is a modernized version of the BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, technical information in the video link in the comments to the video. BMP-2M of the Pskov paratroopers, supposedly breaking through to the rear of the Ukrainian army for a landing. Incredibly, the BMP-2M withstood two FPV drone attacks, an RPG attack and a cluster munition attack, as will be shown at the end of the video. Perhaps the BMP-2M had additional armor, since such an attack is difficult even for a tank to withstand. The armored vehicle commander reportedly received a slight concussion as a result of the attack.

 

blackjack

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That is big money and if they want they could buy some tanks and heavy stuff.
Poland is buying 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 MBTs, along with support vehicles, including the 26 M88A2 Hercules ARVs, and the 17 M1110 Joint Assault Bridge platforms. Alongside the MBTs, Poland is also to acquire logistics and training packages, simulators, and ammunition. The agreement value is defined as ca. USD 4.75 billion $

180 K2 tanks cost us about 3.3 bln $ and its a NEW stuff.

So if US and Ukraine wants it (I doubt it, lighter equipment will be more usefull now) they could send few hundreds used M1A1 or Bradleys.
I am sure you have heard of the definition of insanity by einstein which is doing the samething over and over and expecting different results. The bill is just like the last one except more money in military related matters goes to US MIC in Europe, Israel and than them. How will this change the battlefield if spending last time got nowhere?
Screenshot 2024-04-21 094017.png

A simple google search will tell me that poland has 29 M1a1 abrams tanks, 250 M1a2s by 2025-2026 as an estimate but no specific timeframe and an order of 116 M1a1s comes only after that 1st 250 batch. Oh and there is the headlines of 1000 K-2s but they currently have 28 and hoping that number becomes 180 by 2025. I mean looking at the bill on what Ukraine can spend with that money and the deal Poland got they can get like 700+ M1a2SEPv3s but any new production takes a long time to complete so they go looking for any existing stock of tanks available from any country and it looks like it is hard to find soviet tanks and western tanks tend to be more pricey for Ukraine's purchase so that is like a lesser inventory of tanks and they get destroyed like the soviet ones in this war.

They went from Ukraine will fly F-16s in spring, to ukraine will fly them in summer so I dont know if Ukraines very limited airfields can operate these F-16s keep getting smacked by missiles extending their timeframe delivery, and they are pricier than purchasing tanks to their current bill limits.

Europe announced that they can only get 180,000 shells by the end o this year so nothing from them. US is able to produce more than 28,000 shells a month but still have yet to make the 80,000 a month happen. Western source not a Russian says Russia can produce more than 2 million shells a year(CNN claims 3 million). They are not going to wait for the 180,000 shells by the end of the year so that depends what stock the US has wiith its shells and what they currently produced. https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine...-shell-fire-rate-access-to-resupplies-310866/ Ukraine went from 3,600 shells to 2000 shells fired a day and the current amount now looks like it will be more less and limited. the 3600 rate for a month is like 108,000 shells fired a month. February 2023 source said Ukraine was provided over 1 million shells from the U.S. so making like 28,000 for 14 months to get to this year is like 392,000 shells which would be 3.75 months if they went for the 3600 fire rate. Whenever Ukraine announces their major counteroffensives the Russians dont mind giving up land, making defensive lines, while firing shells at a numerious until Ukraine launches the next major offensive and I am assuming this one they will still use a limited amount of shells or decide to burn through it all if they believe that will be their last one.
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Next is air defense assuming the small batch they will receive does not get destroyed, production from 500 to 650 a year will only happen in 2027. Spamming Geran strikes while their production increases will just make them run out immediately.

So if the last major counteroffensives with the same amount of spending got them nowhere, will they do any better if getting the good stuff is more limited for their purchases from this bill?
 

MaciekRS

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A simple google search will tell me that poland has 29 M1a1 abrams tanks, 250 M1a2s by 2025-2026 as an estimate but no specific timeframe and an order of 116 M1a1s comes only after that 1st 250 batch. Oh and there is the headlines of 1000 K-2s but they currently have 28 and hoping that number becomes 180 by 2025.
Google more, not just "simple"
Poland has 69 M1A1 (march 2024) and rest of that 116 should be in Poland in the next few months and NOT after 250 M1A2 . By the way, there is pretty big ship in Gdynia with something either for us or Ukraine right now, we'll se on Moday if more M1 arrived.

And what if US suddenly change their mind and offer our 116 M1A1 tanks that will be already HERE to Ukraine in exchange for more M1A2 for Poland? We would go for that deal.

And about K2 there is a shedule and everything is going according to it. We already have about 50 (not 28) till the end of the year we will get another 40 and rest of them (90) will arrive next year.
And those K2 are going to replace PT91. (Even the name of this 180 K2GF gap filler, next batch should be K2PL) The more K2 we will have, the more PT91 will go to Ukraine, so either way, Ukraine will get more tanks, dont worry about it.
 
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Relic

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Some examples of weapons, armor and artillery Presidential Drawdown Authority Values. Note that these are close estimates (not exact numbers) based quantities of the same equipment that was sent in previous aid packages.

Munitions
155mm artillery shell: $2500
Javelin anti-armor missile: $78,000
AT4 anti-armor rocket: $1500
TOW missile (Bradley): $80,000
GMLRS rocket (HIMARS): $168,000
AIM-9M missile (NASAMS): $380,000
AIM-120D missile (NASAMS / F-16): $1,100,000
PAC-3 missile (Patriot): $4,000,000
ATACMS Ballistic Missile: $1,500,000

Armor / Artillery
M113A3 APC: $400,000
Bradley M2-ODS: $3,500,000
Stryker APC: $2,500,000
M1A1 Abrams MBT: $5,000,000
M777 155mm Artillery: $3,000,000
M109A6 155mm artillery: $1,500,000

With that in mind, the following is an example of the type of packages you could see the USA send using Presidential Drawdown Authority, assuming that they'll send approximately $850 million usd per month worth if equipment using this pool of money.

Sample package (valued at $850 million usd)

- 50,000 155mm artillery shells ($125,000,000 usd)

- 150 Javelin anti-armor missiles ($11,700,000 usd)

- 1000 AT4 anti-armor rockets ($1,500,000 usd)

- 500 TOW missiles for Bradleys ($40,000,000)

- 250 GMLRS missiles for HIMARS ($42,000,000 usd)

- 200 AIM-9M missiles for NASAMS ($76,000,000 usd)

- 50 AIM-120 missiles for NASAMS / F-16s ($55,000,000 usd)

- 50 PAC-3 missiles for Patriot ($200,000,000 usd)

- 25 ATACMS Ballistic Missiles ($37,500,000 usd)

- 100 M113A3 Armored Personnel Carriers ($40,000,000 usd)

- 25 Bradley M2-ODS Infantry Fighting Vehicles ($87,500,000 usd)

- 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers ($62,500,000 usd)

- 18 M777 155mm Artillery ($54,000,000 usd)

- 18 M109A6 155mm Artillery ($27,000,000 usd)

Total package value: $859,700,000

Just so that people understand, that's just one funding mechanism. USA will be able to send substantially more each month using USAI, however, there will be lead times associated with some of the equipment delivered through that mechanism.
 
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Gary

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I don't understand the logic of this, Russia abducts Ukrainian children... In Germany?



Btw Child kidnapping countries like Germany and Sweden should be the last to scream "child kidnapping" As they are by far the largest children kidnapping society in the world.



Btw where's @Kathirz the Spaniard? I remember him so upset when I brought this topic. Sometimes I hope he's still here trying to defend Western morality. That'll be as easy as I slaughtered contricusc and woland's argument.
 

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Details have become known about how the 74th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of Russia used the remote-controlled robotic platform "Courier" in battles in Ukraine. Previously, we talked about Russian ground-based “Courier” drones and showed how Ukrainian drones attacked them. Technical details in the link to the video in the comments to the video. Now "Courier" is the most famous of the ground-based Russian robotic platforms used in battles in Ukraine. Details in the video.

 

Relic

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Today Britain 🇬🇧 announced its largest single military package for Ukraine of the war to this point. The package is valued at $617 million usd and consists of the following.

- Additional Stormshadow cruise missiles
- 1600+ strike and air defense missiles
- 160 Husky APCs
- 162 undisclosed armored vehicles
- 78 All Terrain Vehicles
- 60 mixed purpose combat boats
- Martime guns
- 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition


 

blackjack

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Fuck it, we should make a poll here. What will happen 1st. A) Ukraine getting its equipment and troops trained having a counteroffensive launched before Russia gets to the Dniepr river or B) will Russians be at the Dniepr river before Ukraine can organize a counteroffensive?

Those are pretty fast village captures for a country that has not yet launched any major offensive like Ukraine has since its last one in 2022.
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Russia is already about to beat their record in village captures soon and they have not organized a large force yet to launch an operation like Ukraine has done in its Spring 2023 counteroffensive. I know this thread, reddit, 4chan /k/, among other forums are going to be fun places to visit soon.
 
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