Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Relic

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Successful interception of Russian missile dropped to 46% on average for both drones and missiles


For Missile it dropped to ~30%

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Two huge factors at play there.

1. Ukraine ran low on missile interceptors due to the delay in the U.S. package. That is far less of a problem now.

2. Russia moved away from attempting concentrated strikes on places like Kyiv and Lviv where rationed air defenses remained reasonbly plentiful, and instead increasingly targeted areas of the country with low levels of air defense coverage.

Like Russia (who has seen meaningful damage done to their oil refining innfrastructure) Ukraine simply does not have enough air defense capability to defend the skies over the entire country. Naturally, they have to choose which areas they most heavily defend, and which targets are worth using expensive air defense missiles that are hard to get, to defend.

I expect to see the interception rate trend back into the 70%+ territory with the arrival of additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 air defense systems (Patriot, SAMP/T and IRIS-T), as well as F-16s that will fly top cover over places like Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv.
 

Relic

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Once committed into battle, The F-16 will pit the APG-66v2 against the Khibniy ECM of the SU-35. Interesting stuff to watch and measure Russian EW capability

I hope they soon get into battle.

The French Remora ECM pods from the 1980s managed to blind many Western aircraft from F-14/15/16/18. If the Russians can't repeat this against MLU'd F-16....

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View attachment 68008


Remora pods on an Iraqi MiG-23

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Lol Russia is absolutely scared shitless of flying SU-35s anywhere near where Ukraine will be operating F-16s from (inside Ukraine's air defense envelope). Ukraine is not going to be using F-16s to engage in dogfights or to intercept with AMRAAMs. Their purpose will be to launch long range standoff weapons such as JASSMs and JDAMs from inside their own air defense envelope, as well as to fly top cover as airborne air defense platforms over Ukraine's cities.
 

Agha Sher

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Folks are putting too much emphasis on F-16s. They will not make a difference. They are too few, too light, outdated and comes too late. Russia has developed the ability to strike air assets while they are on ground (Nearly all of Ukraine's Mig-29s have been destroyed on ground recently).

Ukraine is running out of troops. F-16s should have been delivered during the first year of the conflict when Ukraine had a chance of winning. At this point the west is fighting Russia till the last Ukrainian.

Very unlikely that Ukraine as a nation will survive the current demographic disaster.
 

blackjack

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Lol Russia is absolutely scared shitless of flying SU-35s anywhere near where Ukraine will be operating F-16s from (inside Ukraine's air defense envelope). Ukraine is not going to be using F-16s to engage in dogfights or to intercept with AMRAAMs. Their purpose will be to launch long range standoff weapons such as JASSMs and JDAMs from inside their own air defense envelope, as well as to fly top cover as airborne air defense platforms over Ukraine's cities.
I have never met any pro-ukraine user that is as optimistic as you are. So, what guarantees you that more air defenses Russia has destroyed before will not be destroyed again if an airfield gets hit? or we play along that Patriots has a 100% interception rate but 100 Gerans get launched at the airfield every week you will be out of Patriot missiles very fast. There are a select few airfields NATO considers operable in Ukraine to use F-16s, maybe they want to keep those airfields operable so they can salivate over an air to air kill. Ukrainian command stated this aircraft won't make a difference and even the most pro-western forum in the world is pessimistic about the aircrafts role against a Su-35. Ukraine can't give any visual proofs of any claimed destroyed aircrafts only if the Russians announce it themselves for some reason and they still systematically drop FABS on Ukrainians. I don't even know when the last time Ukraine's air force was recording a footage of dropping glide bombs or missiles on Russians.

Weren't you one of the users here before that stated Javelins and leopards would be game changing?
 

blackjack

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1715740255008.png

Delay
we will send it.
Delay
we will send it.
Delay
We will send it.

Stop playing with my heart.
 

Relic

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Lots of new news on Ukraine aid today.

Spain 🇪🇸 has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. Contents of the package include the following:

- 10 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
- Patriot missiles
- M113 APCs
- 155mm artillery
- 155mm artillery shells
- Anti-armor weapons
- Machine guns

France 🇫🇷 will send a new military aid package to Ukraine this week. Full contents of the package have ot been disclosed, but what's know of the package is the following:

- Aster 30 air missiles (SAMP/T)
- CAESAR 155mm howitzers
- VAB APCs
- 155mm artillery shells

Latvia 🇱🇻 announced a new military aid package valued at $11 million usd, consisting of the following:

- 155mm artillery shells
- Kamikaze drones

Australia 🇦🇺 announced a new military aid package valued at $66.25 million usd. The package includes the following:

- RBS-70 NG air defense systems
- Sentinel 830R river boats




 

Iskander

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Folks are putting too much emphasis on F-16s. They will not make a difference. They are too few, too light, outdated and comes too late. Russia has developed the ability to strike air assets while they are on ground (Nearly all of Ukraine's Mig-29s have been destroyed on ground recently).

Ukraine is running out of troops. F-16s should have been delivered during the first year of the conflict when Ukraine had a chance of winning. At this point the west is fighting Russia till the last Ukrainian.

Very unlikely that Ukraine as a nation will survive the current demographic disaster.
Remember how the war began in Ukraine? It seems to me that everyone has forgotten about this.
Here's how it happened: On November 17, Moscow presented an ultimatum to the West! And she gave the West exactly 1 month to fulfill its demands. At the same time, Moscow stated that they did not intend to discuss with anyone the terms of the ultimatum, in which the main demand was: “NATO must collect its property and go beyond the existing borders of 1997!”
The Russian Foreign Ministry named all the regions and countries from which the West was ordered to “leave”: All countries of Eastern Europe! Even Croatia!
South Caucasus! Baltics! An exception was made only for the GDR - eastern Germany.

NATO did not respond to the ultimatum, and 2 months later the Russians attacked Ukraine.

So here it is. Moscow has still not officially abandoned the Ultimatum!

One must assume that Moscow, if successful in Ukraine, does not intend to stop within its borders...

Considering all this, I think the West will not leave Ukraine alone with Russia.

 
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blackjack

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Remember how the war began in Ukraine? It seems to me that everyone has forgotten about this.
Here's how it happened: On November 17, Moscow presented an ultimatum to the West! And she gave the West exactly 1 month to fulfill its demands. At the same time, Moscow stated that they did not intend to discuss with anyone the terms of the ultimatum, in which the main demand was: “NATO must collect its property and go beyond the existing borders of 1997!”
The Russian Foreign Ministry named all the regions and countries from which the West was ordered to “leave”: All countries of Eastern Europe! Even Croatia!
South Caucasus! Baltics! An exception was made only for the GDR - eastern Germany.

NATO did not respond to the ultimatum, and 2 months later the Russians attacked Ukraine.

So here it is. Moscow has still not officially abandoned the Ultimatum!

One must assume that Moscow, if successful in Ukraine, does not intend to stop within its borders...

Considering all this, I think the West will not leave Ukraine alone with Russia.

lets read what your own source says 1st.
1715755588996.png

1st sentence is correct
the word imply on the 2nd sentence means "strongly suggest", meaning there was no written agreement they were demanding from NATO that it was guaranteed, so from your own sentence they did not demand removal of western troops into regards of the agreements they wanted with Ukraine.

The only agreements they wanted before Boris Johnson told the Ukrainians not to do it was written here.
1715756448233.png


Of course, this when Ukraine for 8 years violated the Minsk agreements multiple times. Thanks to Johnson the Russians will probably be demanding more things from Ukraine once the war is over.
 

Relic

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Today USA 🇺🇸 announced $2 Billion usd in Foreign Military Financing for Ukraine. The funding was announced on a visit to Ukraine by Antony Blinken.

"The fund will provide weapons for Ukraine today, invest in its defence industrial base and finance military equipment purchases from other countries, he said."

This type of funding is imperative. It's different than USAI and PDA, as it's essentially a slush fund for Ukraine to buy weapons from around the world with.

 
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Relic

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Looks like total failure of Russia's S-300 / S-400 battery at Belbek airfield. The battery itself was the target and the ATACMS missiles look to have ripped right through it.

This is all about Western political will power. If the desire exists to provide Ukraine with enough ATACMS, JASSMS, Stormshadow and SCALP-EG, Ukraine will have the capacity to seriously damage Russian air defense capability and hammer Crimea and Russia's air force bases.

ATACMS: 200
JASSM: 200
Stormshadow: 100
SCALP-EG: 100

600 long range strikes missiles in 2024 is all it would really take to destroy tens of billions of dollars of Russian hardware and smash various Russian air fields, radar sites and ammunition depots.


 
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Soldier30

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Footage of work from an underground shelter in Ukraine, Russian 100-mm anti-tank gun MT-12 "Rapira". The crew of the Rapier anti-tank gun themselves equipped an underground position, including exhaust ventilation to remove powder gases. In fact, the anti-tank gun began to be used as a howitzer. The MT-12 Rapier 100mm anti-tank guns were developed in the early 1960s and were removed from storage by the Russian Army for use in Ukraine.

 

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