The hype on Rammstein meeting is huge, a lot of countries are preparing to send the heavy armor behind the scenes. It seems the time has come.
There is a political fight right now between Berlin and Washington on sending tanks. It's being said Berlin will only send the Leopards if US does it also.
This guy is coming to tell some words to Scholz:
I still think it's going to be a little while until we see Abrams' and Leopards announced for Ukraine, largely for logistical / support reasons. I do think it's coming eventually, but right now it's not the focus of the West.
At the moment, I believe the West's focus is the following.
1). The transition to Western IFVs and heavily armed APCs.
2). The continued fortifying of Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
3). The procurement / logistical flow of 155mm artillery rounds.
4). The introduction of additional Western self propelled artillery and heavy mortars.
5). The training of approximately 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers at locations across Europe, the U.K. and USA in 2022.
I do eventually think you'll see approximately 100 Abrams and 100 Leopard 2s make their way to Germany, where armoured battalions will train on them before heading back to Ukraine to join the fight, but I would expect you'll see several hundred Western IFVs and modern APCs prior to that occurence.
Here is the key. Ukraine is going to send approximately 500-700 soldiers to Germany every month (starting in January) to be trained in combined arms warfare, using Western equipment. The goal must be to have adequate equipment waiting for them to train on and take back to Ukraine with them as they finish the training. A Western mechanized battalion consists of approximately 50 tanks, 90-100 IFVs, 50 armed APCs and artillery and logistics to support them. That ought to be the focus of the West. Ensure that for the first half 2023, enough equipment is available to send back with each battalion.
Here is a reasonable way to look at it...
Battalion #1 (January)
28x T-55 MBTs (Slovenia)
25x T-72 MBTs (Poland)
100x Bradley M2 IFVs (USA)
50x Stryker APCs (USA)
18x M109A6 Paladin, 155mm self propelled howitzers
Battalion #2 (February)
35x T-72 MBTs (Morocco, Czech Republic)
14x Challenger MBTs (Britain)
50x Marder IFVs (Germany)
50x Bradley IFVs (USA)
50x Stryker APCs (USA)
18x AS-90, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Britain)
Battalion #3 (March)
50x Leopard 2 MBTs (Germany, Poland, Finland)
50x BMP2 IFVs (Czech Republic and Slovakia)
50x CV90 IFVs (Sweden)
50x Kirpi APCs (Turkey)
18x Archer, 155mm, self propelled howitzers (Sweden)
Battalion #4 (April)
50x Abrams M1A2 MBTs (USA)
50x LAV III IFVs (Canada)
50x Warrior IFVs (Britain)
50x Kirpi APCs (Turkey)
18x Krab, 155mm, self propelled howitzers (Poland)
Battalion #5 (May)
50x Leopard 2 MBTs (Spain, Canada, The Netherlands, Norway)
50x CV90 IFVs (Norway, The Netherlands, Finland, Estonia, Denmark)
50x VBCI IFVs (France)
50x Stryker APCs (USA)
18x M109, 155mm, self propelled howitzers (Italy, Spain)
Battalion #6 (June)
50x Abrams M1A2 MBTs (USA)
50x Bradley IFVs (USA)
50x Warrior IFVs (Britain)
50x VAB APCs (France)
18x Panzerhaubitze 2000, 155mm, self propelled howitzers (Germany, Italy, The Netherlands)
That is a 6 month example of how you share the burden and build armoured battalions that have the adequate equipment necessary to go to war, without placing substantial burden on any one country. The remainder of the supporting countries support these donations with all of the equipment they can spare.
If we work together and share the burden, we'll be able to send the Ukrainians into combat with some lethal armoured battalions over the first half of 2023.