Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

blackjack

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Here we go again, western reports contradicting Oryx reports. With the assistance of NATO helping Russia alot of Ukrainian men will be killed and if some parts of ukraine that don't vote to become a part of Russia there will barely be any resistance because all the fighting men are killed from Ukraine.


 

CAN_TR

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This war was avoidable, but NATO did everything to create a conflict. 2008 they tried to test Russia and Georgia was sacrificed. 2014 Ukraine was prepared for literally a Coup, Russia intervened surprised USA and occupied Crimea, Ukrainian Armed Forces were prepared for 8 years by NATO. The US suspending the INF treaty (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces) in 2019 was probably the official declaration and months later deploying land based modified Mk.41 VLS to Romania which can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles (nuclear warheads). We are living in times that are similar to the Cuba crisis, but nobody gives a shit about it.

When i read the statements of Stoltenberg, Biden, Scholz etc. i can't find anything about ceasefire, peace... but stuff like "we need to send more A and continue deliveries of B..." They clearly don't want that this war ends so they shouldn't talk about peace and human lifes.

Some people are still high of the success the Ukrainians had in Kiev and surrounding areas and Mykolaiv-Kherson, the one sided western media gave the people the impression that Ukrainians are slaughtering the Russians and winning the war... but Ukraine pretty much got stomped in the South and currently grinded down in the East (Bakhmut/Soledar).

This is now a war of attrition and i want to ask just two logical questions?
Who can sustain more casualities? Who can replace equipment and men faster? Ukraine or Russia.
 
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blackjack

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This is now a war of attrition and i want to ask just two logical questions?
Who can sustain more casualities? Who can replace equipment and men faster? Ukraine or Russia.
The only reason there are no major protests in Russia like the U.S. for the Vietnam war is who is going to miss and cry over 40k-50k convicts that have either death sentences or life imprisonment? LDR troops had a reason to fight in this war because they have been getting shelled for 8 years and they were not even considered as Russian soldier casualties until a few months ago and chechens just love to fight in general. Lets see if the south americans are willing to trade their T-72s for Abram tanks, if those tanks run out I think India might be on the request list next. I heard that 200+ T-90s are being produced a month and the amount of tanks being supplied to Ukraine make it rather laughable. The will to fight is important (even convicts fight for their freedom) and so far, this past two weeks not every Ukrainian civilian was willing to be mobilized based on what I have seen videos of.
 

GoatsMilk

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He gave you like 6 reasons why we shouldn't entertain Russia that's all happened in the last 10 years and you ignored it all, instead citing stalin and that dumb nuclear plant that looked like a bad deal day 1, and getting worse.

Honestly i could give a hundred more easy. But my other comment got deleted because a mod claimed by calling someone ignorant im belittling them. Honestly wasnt meant as a insult just a statement of fact, there is a million things i'm ignorant on but i don't go round claiming to know about such things. If someone said to me your totally ignorant on K-pop, i would say yes i am ignorant of it. I remember gangnam style and thats about it.

also he should read your comment again, he's diverting again. He's ignoring that your telling him i've told him current concerns, he wants to focus on the historical concerns. I gave the historical concerns with the modern concerns to show that nothing changes with Russia, they have always been our enemy. But you watch too much Turkish TV and they were being brainwashed to believe that Russia was our ally and friend, then the Russians go and directly murder our troops, Erdogans runs to hide it and then Russian TV shows it on national television to humiliate the entire Turkish nation. Then erdogan begs Putin for a meeting and Putin claims he's busy for the first few days of it as a further insult to the Turkish nation. But yeah why could we possibly want to support Ukraine against Russia.

Also had Ukraine not been a massive failure for Russia, our problems with Russia in Syria and Libya would just have been the start. Those problems would have expanded across the entire black sea, into Iran, Central Asia, the Balkans and north Africa.

This doesnt even include the fact that PKK is recognised as a legitimate political entity in Russia.

Sometimes its easy to see why the Ottomans got so easily crushed by Russia.

and the economics of the power plant deal are terrible, they've been discussed on here before. The Russians are laughing all the way to the bank on that one. One thing you have to give Putin before his Ukrainian fiasco he treated AK party like absolute mugs.
 
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MaciekRS

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I heard that 200+ T-90s are being produced a month
That make my day :)
Just say 5000 per month, be like Konashenkov. Forget west, forget China, russia is a real monster able to produce tank from NOTHING.
I wonder who will produce guns, engines or I dont know some thermovision for that tanks ;)
Or maybe just rename early version of T55 as T90 Super Special Armata mode. That you can still produce in cooperation with North Korea


Well, time to watch new Girkin from his dungeon. His shows are real hit in Poland. That terrorist is sometimes telling the truth about russia and how you are fucked
 
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GoatsMilk

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A weak and destroyed russia opens many possibilities for every russian neighbour both in Europe and in Asia.

Yes it does but that's really a secondary concern for Turkiye. Our primary concern is where they are directly opposing us today and where they would oppose us tomorrow had they conquered Ukraine.

In Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan all of their movements were to curtail us, this has all happened in the last few years alone. Syria was ridicilious all the raising the russian flags on pkk held positions to threaten the Turks not do anything and quickly Turks forget about it. Also the indiscriminate slaughter of Syrian civilians was intended to force millions of them to flee to Turkey and destabilise her. Had the Russian air campaign not started in syria 90% of refugees wouldnt have left Syria.
 

Barry

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Honestly i could give a hundred more easy. But my other comment got deleted because a mod claimed by calling someone ignorant im belittling them. Honestly wasnt meant as a insult just a statement of fact, there is a million things i'm ignorant on but i don't go round claiming to know about such things. If someone said to me your totally ignorant on K-pop, i would say yes i am ignorant of it. I remember gangnam style and thats about it.

also he should read your comment again, he's diverting again. He's ignoring that your telling him i've told him current concerns, he wants to focus on the historical concerns. I gave the historical concerns with the modern concerns to show that nothing changes with Russia, they have always been our enemy. But you watch too much Turkish TV and they were being brainwashed to believe that Russia was our ally and friend, then the Russians go and directly murder our troops, Erdogans runs to hide it and then Russian TV shows it on national television to humiliate the entire Turkish nation. Then erdogan begs Putin for a meeting and Putin claims he's busy for the first few days of it as a further insult to the Turkish nation. But yeah why could we possibly want to support Ukraine against Russia.

Also had Ukraine not been a massive failure for Russia, our problems with Russia in Syria and Libya would just have been the start. Those problems would have expanded across the entire black sea, into Iran, Central Asia, the Balkans and north Africa.

This doesnt even include the fact that PKK is recognised as a legitimate political entity in Russia.

Sometimes its easy to see why the Ottomans got so easily crushed by Russia.

and the economics of the power plant deal are terrible, they've been discussed on here before. The Russians are laughing all the way to the bank on that one. One thing you have to give Putin before his Ukrainian fiasco he treated AK party like absolute mugs.

Just silly deleting posts that aren't complete hate-filled bile or propaganda. If there was an issue when I moderated in the past, first I'd message user to edit his post or just edit it myself and inform them of the reasoning why. Full deletes were considered silencing discussion and were considered an abuse of power.
 

Relic

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I've long said that I think Turkey should send 100 upgraded M60A3 Pattons to Ukraine. Germany (financed through 3rd party countries that don't have tanks to send) should then backfill Turkey with 30-50 Leopard 2's (in a swap), as long as the Turks are willing to wait a year or so for them to be refurbished from German storage.

The M60A3 is obsolete compared to Russia's best and newest MBTs, but they're a sufficient counter for the T-62's that Russia is pulling out of storage to send to the front. Not every MBT sent needs to be top notch. 100 well kept, upgraded, M60A3s would still be formidable as a defensive unit in a key region, freeing up more modern assets to for offensive opportunities.

Just an idea.
It's a very simple concept that would benefit all three countries. Let me explain.

Germany is reluctant to send their Leopard 2 tanks (of which they have a healthy number in storage) to Ukraine at this time. Turkey already fields the leopard 2 as their most advanced main battle tank (Altay will eventually replace the Leopard 2). Leopard 2 is a far more capable tank than even the most upgraded M60A3 Patton, which means that my proposed swap would actually make Turkey stronger militarily, rather than weaker.

Germany wins because it costs them virtually nothing to send Turkey 30-50 stored Leopards. The value of the tanks (which have already been paid for) is relatively little. They're not worried about spending money on this conflict as they've been doing plenty of that already. What they're not ready to do is send their Leopard 2 to Ukraine. They already do business with Turkey in the realm of Leo 2. They can send their tanks to Turkey and avoid the persistent, growing backlash about their unwillingness to send their Leo 2's to Ukraine.

Turkey wins because they trade up. They give away 100'ish rather obsolete (but still selectively capable) tanks and get 30-50 newer tanks of a type they already field and know how to use / support. Their modern tank numbers become more robust, at the cost of their outdated tanks. There is no financial loss to Turkey in this situation because they get a better product in return, at Germany (or a 3rd party's) cost.

Ukraine wins because they simply need armor at this point. They gladly accepted upgraded Slovenian T-55s for example and are currently training a battalion in Germany on how to use them, along with American Bradleys. Russia is now fielding a lot of obsolete, order model T-62 and T-72 tanks, which the upgraded M60A3's can compete with from a defensive posture. Russia also uses thousands of BMP-1's and BMP-2's, which the M60A3s can definitely compete with. The procurement of 100'ish M60A3s would allow Ukraine to deploy them in more of a defensive role, freeing up their better tanks for offensives.

This is the type of "swap" that only serves to help everyone. I would think that if Turkey were in Ukraine's position, they'd hope that their friends and acquaintances would make similar, sensible deals to help them out.
 

blackjack

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I mean I can't blame Olaf. Russians at the moment enjoy this war so much that they probably wish for the US to send Abrams, so they can blow them up and celebrate on Telegram. I think it's also the main reason Germany and US don't want to send their shit there since we now have south American countries being asked to be traded with western tanks, don't want to drop the market value of your best military exports. Even if Turkey had 1000 Altay tanks they would not send a single one to Ukraine either.
 

Relic

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Leopard 2 MBTs are going to make their way to Ukraine in the next couple months, alongside British Challenger 2 MBTs. The writing is on the wall. A Western Tank Company consists of 14 MBTs. There are 4 companies in a Battalion (56 tanks total). I think that you'll eventually see a slew of countries donate between 1-2 companies each of Leopards, totalling enough for 4 armored battalions. I suspect the distribution of the donation will look something like this.

Austria: 7
Denmark: 7
Norway: 7
Canada: 14
Czech Republic: 15 (currently in storage)
Slovakia: 15 (currently in storage)
Finland: 14
Sweden: 14
Britain: 14 (Challenger 2)
German Industry: 12
German Industry: 21 (Leopard 1s)
Spain: 28
Poland: 28
Germany: 28

Those tanks will be paired with American Bradleys and what I expect to be a coalition of nations that will donate CV90s. 4 new tank battalions would / will be a nice upgrade in capability for Ukraine, heading into a spring offensive. There will be 18, 155m self propelled howitzers attached to each Battalion as artillery support. 18x A109A6 (USA), 18x AS-90 (Britain), 12x Archer + 6 AS-90 (Sweden + Britain) and 18x CEASAR (Denmark).
 

blackjack

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User said some interesting things based on his experience, so I will share his experiences here.

1674272312036.png

1674272368533.png
 

GoatsMilk

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Well,he is right.
We discussed this with some Think Tanks,this war is about Germany.
The US wants the Germans to get in line.

It definitely seemed like France and Germany were on board with Russia annexing Ukraine. It seems to me with England leaving the EU they have thrown their lot in with the Anglo-American world. This will become important later.

The French have been barking for a couple of years now about creating an EU army, if that were to happen it renders NATO obsolete for Europe and potentially creates a rival to NATO meaning american global hegemony.

I think the logic of the french/german dominated EU was that if they get on with Russia and bring Russia under their sphere of influence that they could eventually be a rival or at least counter the USA's influence, of course this mindset is foolish and the Russians have exploited that naivety every step of the way. If Russians were successful in taking Ukraine they would have looked to take the Baltics next and then who knows, after that Russia will not see herself as an equal to France. It was a failed policy. Russia before the Ukraine war believed herself a super power on par with the USA, had they successful annexed Ukraine their no way they would look at little France with anything other then contempt.

When you look at libya where we faced off against a Russian/French alliance, we must remember operation irini in which the French used the EU mechanisms to basically try and put a weapons embargo on the Turkish backed side, while the Russians were free to ship in weapons to Haftar a Haftar whose also being supported by Assad and Iran. If you remember the French tried to threaten us with their warships and if the French are to be believed we locked onto them and them to f'off. This led to Macron running to NATO and when he didnt get the support he expected he claimed NATO was suffering brain drain. After this incident who next tried to stop our support? A German ship boarded one of our civilian ships illegally.


"Turkey protested on Monday after German forces belonging to the European Union’s Irini mission, tasked with enforcing a UN arms embargo against Libya, boarded and searched a Turkish cargo ship the EU suspected of taking weapons to Libya illegally."

So collectively you can France and Germany working together against Turkiye while siding with Russia and their actions in Libya.

There is even talk of the Russians being in on it,which means that the US and Russia planned this together.
If you look at the signs its obvious.

I definitely think its reasonable to think France and Germany were in on it. When i look at the americans i think they played the Russians, they made the Russians think they were not interested in it. Who can remember bidans, "we are not going to go war over it". He spoke in such a way as to entice the Russians. From the Russian perspective they knew they had France and Germany on board and everything looked like the americans would stay out of it. To me it looked like a trap or bait and the Russians fell for it. Again outplayed by the anglo-american world.

While all this was happening the outlier nation was the UK, they were consistent in their position against Russia. When we look at Britain's history for the past 300 years, its number one geopolitical concern has been about keeping Europe divided, to never allow any power to grow so big on the continent that i can challenge Britain directly. Having left the EU its somewhat clear that the British who quite rightly see themselves as a premier European nation would never allow themselves to come under French or German influence. By rushing to Ukraine's side the basically helped break the german/franch/russian axis. Living in this country, i always find that what Britain does in any situation is critical to understanding the bigger picture.

Why didnt Russia karpet bomb Ukrainian cities at the beginning of the war?

Take a look at Syria or Grozny.
Why bombing cities now?

Remember Russia was spreading all the bullshit about Ukraine being a brother nation and that Ukrainians were really Russians. They had hoped to take the country very quickly and incorporate that massive nation, its big population and industrial capacity into its union. If they destroyed the cities they would have to rebuild it at great cost and pacifying that nation would be costly and the changes on internal insurrection would be greater.

As to why they are bombing the cities now, its because Russia is losing the war. They are desperate to create as much death and destruction on the Ukrainian side in the hopes that the Ukrainians come to the table and they can annex what they currently hold, this can be sold by Putin as a victory. Bombing all the cities is a desperate tactic, its not going to work. From a wishful 3 day war to when the Americans decide to end it by what weapons they supply, why not let russia bleed is the american position. A big win for America.

Look at what the US is sending and what it wants European countries to send to Ukraine.
Why not send 100 Abram tanks,F-16s,Patriots at the start of the war if the US cares so much?

The USA gets to dick on Russia, a quick end is good for Ukraine and its actually good for Russia to. The worst outcome for Russia is a long protracted, bloody and costly war that they lose in the end anyway. My own feeling is this war has about a year left, but the USA is good if it goes on 10 years. Russia bleeds and Americans collects pay checks and influence all along the way.

Also worth keeping in mind that the more america encourages europeans states to send weapons, it helps raise animosities and divisions between Russia and other states. A good example is south cyprus talking about sending 80 tanks to Ukraine, this was a country that was basically a haven for Russian oligarghs, eu passports, money laundering, even allowing Russians war ships to refuel. So what america is doing is causing russians links to EU countries to break down.

And remember once these countries send their russian junk to ukraine, they end up looking to america for replacements making money for america and making those nations more dependent on America.

There is also the other psychological game at play, the longer the war goes on the weaker and more pathetic it makes Russia look and a big part of their global strategy was their perception of great strength. Just think how most Turks saw Russia before the war and how they see them now as a good example.

Why no oligarch ever fought for his possessions taken by the ''West''?

They probably know its futile.

The US already lost the ME,it doesnt want to lose Europe.

The US is deeply entrenched in the mideast and with Isreal they will have a permanent colony who just so happens to have the most advanced military in the region. This doesnt even include their pkk project is coming along.

Why Poland is being weaponized to the teeth?
Poland is the nr 1 ally of the US in Europe now,why do you think?

When we look back Poland could see the game and spoke out against German dealings with Russia. Polands number one security concern is that if Germany and Russia become good friends will they unite together against Poland as happened a few times in history. It actually makes perfect sense for Poland to bring the USA in, that is their hedge against Germany and Russia working together to undermine Poland. If i was polish i would do the same.

I would even suggest that if Turkiye can develop her military to a French level that Turkey and Poland along with Ukraine form a strategic relationship. That can hedge us all against such things.


Many many more questions.

no doubts.

On a side note if the EU truly wanted to turn into a global power, all they had to do was accept Turkiye. A country thats western in outlook and wanted to be part of the western world. With Turkey onboard the EU would have been able to expand influence easily across the middle east, Africa, caucuses and central asia. But we are in the unique position that all these nations who have global aspirations see us as an enemy be it France, Germany, USA or Russia.
 
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Gary

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User said some interesting things based on his experience, so I will share his experiences here.

View attachment 52879
View attachment 52880

More cope as usual..

  1. The PAC are not intended to intercept the lawnmowers ( I presumed this is the Shahed he's talking about). But Russia's Iskander and Tochka. The Shahed has been decreasing in effectiveness since the Gepards enter service.
  2. This dude need not to lecture Rheinmetall on Leopards refurbishment, they sell us refurbished Leo2 just fine in about a year and Ukraine's Leopard 2 are already in service ex-Poles machine that only need Scholz approval for delivery.
  3. The M1 Abrams has had a few losses, in fact there's no such invincible machine. But the ratio of kill: being killed still favored the Abrams by a large margin.
  4. Ahhh the "Western Weapons not suitable for war" gang strikes again, I want to remind you what 8 "over engineered and highly expensive" HIMARS did what Russia's "cheap and plentiful" Smerch and Uragans can't do.
 

Gary

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Also to point up to post #19,203. In regards to NATO members arms industries. This is very obvious but its good to debunk baseless claim from time to time.

For one, I don't see any Russian in here

12221.jpeg



Just to give an example, USAF stock of JASSM outnumber all Russian stocks and reserves of ALCM by all types combined, and we had not yet talk about other missiles produced by the US MIC for other service and exports.

Post Cold war saw a serious arms reduction in the NATO countries but so does Russia. A more accurate portrayal of NATO industries post Cold war is reorientation from high end military conflicts to low end counter insurgency worldwide. This (2001-mid 2010s) is the period where MRAPs and anti IED device is the name of the game.

A war in Europe meant that NATO countries MIC will once more re-orient themselves towards producing high end military products intended to fight a major war. We already saw this last year for example with the expansion of Lockheed Martin plant capacity to produce ⬆️ 1000+ JASSM per year (from the usual ~400-500) and other important stuff.


The post also claimed that NATO are scrapping the barrel and could not replaced destroyed items. Just look at the contrast of production between the two. There are now roughly 21 operational Su-57 compared to the nearly 900 F-35s


Compared to US (singular) annual productions and spending projection, the aid to Ukraine is what could only be described a trickle.

https://twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1605924205484072960?s=20
FjYGATeUoAEEVZj

FjYGJjKVIAA7IBx


In fact, if the Sierra army depot is a military on its own it would be top 4 in the world, so I don't understand where he got the idea that NATO already burned all its stocks for Ukraine, the Abrams haven't even arrived yet. :confused:

https://www.defensemedianetwork.com...e-providing-a-second-life-for-army-equipment/

 
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Dmr

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Ahhh the "Western Weapons not suitable for war" gang strikes again
Pretty much evert western weapon system sent to Ukraine was proven to be far more effective in combat than any of it's Russian counterparts.
 
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