Well,he is right.
We discussed this with some Think Tanks,this war is about Germany.
The US wants the Germans to get in line.
It definitely seemed like France and Germany were on board with Russia annexing Ukraine. It seems to me with England leaving the EU they have thrown their lot in with the Anglo-American world. This will become important later.
The French have been barking for a couple of years now about creating an EU army, if that were to happen it renders NATO obsolete for Europe and potentially creates a rival to NATO meaning american global hegemony.
I think the logic of the french/german dominated EU was that if they get on with Russia and bring Russia under their sphere of influence that they could eventually be a rival or at least counter the USA's influence, of course this mindset is foolish and the Russians have exploited that naivety every step of the way. If Russians were successful in taking Ukraine they would have looked to take the Baltics next and then who knows, after that Russia will not see herself as an equal to France. It was a failed policy. Russia before the Ukraine war believed herself a super power on par with the USA, had they successful annexed Ukraine their no way they would look at little France with anything other then contempt.
When you look at libya where we faced off against a Russian/French alliance, we must remember operation irini in which the French used the EU mechanisms to basically try and put a weapons embargo on the Turkish backed side, while the Russians were free to ship in weapons to Haftar a Haftar whose also being supported by Assad and Iran. If you remember the French tried to threaten us with their warships and if the French are to be believed we locked onto them and them to f'off. This led to Macron running to NATO and when he didnt get the support he expected he claimed NATO was suffering brain drain. After this incident who next tried to stop our support? A German ship boarded one of our civilian ships illegally.
Turkey and Germany traded barbs on Tuesday after German soldiers boarded a Turkish vessel on behalf of an EU military mission in the Mediterranean, with Berlin calling its NATO ally’s protests unjustified and Ankara saying the move was illegal.
thearabweekly.com
"Turkey protested on Monday after German forces belonging to the European Union’s Irini mission, tasked with enforcing a UN arms embargo against Libya, boarded and searched a Turkish cargo ship the EU suspected of taking weapons to Libya illegally."
So collectively you can France and Germany working together against Turkiye while siding with Russia and their actions in Libya.
There is even talk of the Russians being in on it,which means that the US and Russia planned this together.
If you look at the signs its obvious.
I definitely think its reasonable to think France and Germany were in on it. When i look at the americans i think they played the Russians, they made the Russians think they were not interested in it. Who can remember bidans, "we are not going to go war over it". He spoke in such a way as to entice the Russians. From the Russian perspective they knew they had France and Germany on board and everything looked like the americans would stay out of it. To me it looked like a trap or bait and the Russians fell for it. Again outplayed by the anglo-american world.
While all this was happening the outlier nation was the UK, they were consistent in their position against Russia. When we look at Britain's history for the past 300 years, its number one geopolitical concern has been about keeping Europe divided, to never allow any power to grow so big on the continent that i can challenge Britain directly. Having left the EU its somewhat clear that the British who quite rightly see themselves as a premier European nation would never allow themselves to come under French or German influence. By rushing to Ukraine's side the basically helped break the german/franch/russian axis. Living in this country, i always find that what Britain does in any situation is critical to understanding the bigger picture.
Why didnt Russia karpet bomb Ukrainian cities at the beginning of the war?
Take a look at Syria or Grozny.
Why bombing cities now?
Remember Russia was spreading all the bullshit about Ukraine being a brother nation and that Ukrainians were really Russians. They had hoped to take the country very quickly and incorporate that massive nation, its big population and industrial capacity into its union. If they destroyed the cities they would have to rebuild it at great cost and pacifying that nation would be costly and the changes on internal insurrection would be greater.
As to why they are bombing the cities now, its because Russia is losing the war. They are desperate to create as much death and destruction on the Ukrainian side in the hopes that the Ukrainians come to the table and they can annex what they currently hold, this can be sold by Putin as a victory. Bombing all the cities is a desperate tactic, its not going to work. From a wishful 3 day war to when the Americans decide to end it by what weapons they supply, why not let russia bleed is the american position. A big win for America.
Look at what the US is sending and what it wants European countries to send to Ukraine.
Why not send 100 Abram tanks,F-16s,Patriots at the start of the war if the US cares so much?
The USA gets to dick on Russia, a quick end is good for Ukraine and its actually good for Russia to. The worst outcome for Russia is a long protracted, bloody and costly war that they lose in the end anyway. My own feeling is this war has about a year left, but the USA is good if it goes on 10 years. Russia bleeds and Americans collects pay checks and influence all along the way.
Also worth keeping in mind that the more america encourages europeans states to send weapons, it helps raise animosities and divisions between Russia and other states. A good example is south cyprus talking about sending 80 tanks to Ukraine, this was a country that was basically a haven for Russian oligarghs, eu passports, money laundering, even allowing Russians war ships to refuel. So what america is doing is causing russians links to EU countries to break down.
And remember once these countries send their russian junk to ukraine, they end up looking to america for replacements making money for america and making those nations more dependent on America.
There is also the other psychological game at play, the longer the war goes on the weaker and more pathetic it makes Russia look and a big part of their global strategy was their perception of great strength. Just think how most Turks saw Russia before the war and how they see them now as a good example.
Why no oligarch ever fought for his possessions taken by the ''West''?
They probably know its futile.
The US already lost the ME,it doesnt want to lose Europe.
The US is deeply entrenched in the mideast and with Isreal they will have a permanent colony who just so happens to have the most advanced military in the region. This doesnt even include their pkk project is coming along.
Why Poland is being weaponized to the teeth?
Poland is the nr 1 ally of the US in Europe now,why do you think?
When we look back Poland could see the game and spoke out against German dealings with Russia. Polands number one security concern is that if Germany and Russia become good friends will they unite together against Poland as happened a few times in history. It actually makes perfect sense for Poland to bring the USA in, that is their hedge against Germany and Russia working together to undermine Poland. If i was polish i would do the same.
I would even suggest that if Turkiye can develop her military to a French level that Turkey and Poland along with Ukraine form a strategic relationship. That can hedge us all against such things.
Many many more questions.
no doubts.
On a side note if the EU truly wanted to turn into a global power, all they had to do was accept Turkiye. A country thats western in outlook and wanted to be part of the western world. With Turkey onboard the EU would have been able to expand influence easily across the middle east, Africa, caucuses and central asia. But we are in the unique position that all these nations who have global aspirations see us as an enemy be it France, Germany, USA or Russia.
1000+ JASSM per year (from the usual ~400-500) and other important stuff.
