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Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

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Bogeyman said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503804282532859905
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Just to shed some light on this bill, approximately 6.7 billion is earmarked for humanitarian and refugee aid for fleeing Ukrainians, as well as to ship food, clothing, clean water and medical supplies into the country.

Roughly $6.5 billion is earmarked for defense spending, with $3 billion earmarked for weapons transfers to Ukraine, from the existing American supply. The remaining $3.5 billion is for the transfer or American troops and military assets to NATO's eastern flank.

The remaining money in the bill is to facilitate to immediate purchase of weapons from Ukraine that will not come from the American stockpile.

I'd like to see Canada up their loan to Ukraine to $1 billion (U.S.) and for Britain and France to follow suit. I'd then like to see the EU double their commitment from $1 billion to $2 billion, to slap Putin in the face, re-enfircing the idea that if he really wants to "win" the war, it will be at the cost of tens of thousands of Russia's sons, leaving tens of thousands of Russian mothers, fathers, wives and children, grieving the unnecessary loss of their loved ones. Turn it into an absolute meat grinder for them.
 
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Nilgiri

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Lool said:
Not really
Putin planned for the Ukraine invasion to follow the same scenario as Crimea's invasion; i-e, a max of 2 to 3 days without any significant resistance. He actually planned his war based on the assumptions clearly based above. Thus, he got screwed now since he actually faced stiff resistance from Ukraine and had to go to the planning board again; however, a new plan takes time to develop and the war has already started. By the time a new plan has been developed, Putin would have lost a decent chunk of military equipment and soldiers
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Well 2 - 3 days with decapitation strike objective on kiev etc was the best case scenario

I think even the worst case scenario was 1 week - 2 weeks if you look at the force structure at large commited....given even the 2 - 3 day stuff (going as best as can be in Putin + planners heads) would have needed some semblance of follow up.

But its gone well past that now and the logistics will punish in extra ways going forward for the quagmire crawl... assuming same X-factor coefficients for escalation and/or deterioration.

The BTG concept was in hindsight a bad move for their (already poor) logistics too, but maybe traditional arrangement would have been just as bad or worse, hard to say.
 
Nilgiri

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Just a momentary pause at this juncture of the conflict....

We must remember that the human mind in general wants easy answers in terms it has gotten most used to over its existence thus far...

IMO, the human mind must become aware of this cognitive need/bias if it is to elevate itself....

Consider certain elements from other angles and sides of the situation..... in this case an (apparent) take from some operators that were caught up in the malestrom of the strike near lviv recently....and what such "privileged" SOF are generally used to (compared to the situation in UKR).

Also consider what may or may not be the thresholds of the power structure in Russia that Putin has arraigned around himself.

================================================================

Earlier quotes of context:

COIN problem in some SOF:

Nilgiri said:
Yep, very well said.

It's not for nothing that my buds that are in the know stateside have told me US army seriously needs a decade or more to "unlearn" all the COIN bad habits it has picked up for the last couple (in AFG and IRQ)....to make it more a regular conventional army (to deal with other conventional forces) like it was prior.
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Putin and power:

Blackbeardsgoldfish said:
Wanna wager a guess on how much longer Putin will stay in power?
Click to expand...

Joe Shearer said:
Between three to six months. He has eroded his own support base.
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T-123456 said:
Another decade.
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Nilgiri said:
Yeah I see him sticking around a real long time too..... things work really different in Russia compared to rest of world.
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============================

Consider this (supposed) account I pasted at bottom.... and earlier putin chat preceding it:

SOFSOP.jpg



War and power are complicated things in the end, folks should try not get tunneled into precise+narrow takes+narratives too much.

The disinfo and propaganda also runs heavy on all sides in fog of war.

Lot of things (proper analysis wise) we will only know much later to run things more objectively.

But it is clear the war is not going as intended for Putin and Russia....the logistics situation, unit composition elected and the sheer duration so far illustrate that (along with tenacity and resilience Ukrainians are putting up).

I personally have a feeling this will grind on in some kind of quagmire for quite some time, and there is no easy resolution that can be projected at this point....as much as I support and sympathise with UKR side on it.

This is not a small bear....and the bear trap is of nature of slow bleed.

Members comments are most appreciated regarding any aspect of this.
 
Xenon54

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Nilgiri said:
Just a momentary pause at this juncture of the conflict....

We must remember that the human mind in general wants easy answers in terms it has gotten most used to over its existence thus far...

IMO, the human mind must become aware of this cognitive need/bias if it is to elevate itself....

Consider certain elements from other angles and sides of the situation..... in this case an (apparent) take from some operators that were caught up in the malestrom of the strike near lviv recently....and what such "privileged" SOF are generally used to (compared to the situation in UKR).

Also consider what may or may not be the thresholds of the power structure in Russia that Putin has arraigned around himself.

================================================================

Earlier quotes of context:

COIN problem in some SOF:




Putin and power:









============================

Consider this (supposed) account I pasted at bottom.... and earlier putin chat preceding it:

View attachment 41062


War and power are complicated things in the end, folks should try not get tunneled into precise+narrow takes+narratives too much.

The disinfo and propaganda also runs heavy on all sides in fog of war.

Lot of things (proper analysis wise) we will only know much later to run things more objectively.

But it is clear the war is not going as intended for Putin and Russia....the logistics situation, unit composition elected and the sheer duration so far illustrate that (along with tenacity and resilience Ukrainians are putting up).

I personally have a feeling this will grind on in some kind of quagmire for quite some time, and there is no easy resolution that can be projected at this point....as much as I support and sympathise with UKR side on it.

This is not a small bear....and the bear trap is of nature of slow bleed.

Members comments are most appreciated regarding any aspect of this.
Click to expand...
Also many forget how high Putins aproval rate is, espacially these days, Russians like him and want him, they think the war is justified and most are oblivious to how rest of the world thinks of them and Russia.

The Russian leader saw an increased approval rating from 69 percent in January 2022, to 71 percent in February, 2022. That is the highest Putin's approval rating has hit in Levada Center polling since May 2018, when he scored a 79 percent approval rating.


Russians also lack any kind of empathy towards strangers, the first and foremost is own interest at no matter what cost, this is not a generalization but a fact, people who area gainst the war are a small minority.
 
Hexciter

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xenon5434 said:
Also many forget how high Putins aproval rate is, espacially these days, Russians like him and want him, they think the war is justified and most are oblivious to how rest of the world thinks of them and Russia.

The Russian leader saw an increased approval rating from 69 percent in January 2022, to 71 percent in February, 2022. That is the highest Putin's approval rating has hit in Levada Center polling since May 2018, when he scored a 79 percent approval rating.


Russians also lack any kind of empathy towards strangers, the first and foremost is own interest at no matter what cost, this is not a generalization but a fact, people who area gainst the war are a small minority.
Click to expand...
Because of that reasons, the world is isolating them from the rest of the world. Problem will rise here for them, they have been tasted the forbidden fruit. Can they do without after that?
 
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