Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Nilgiri]

Honestly, Iam shocked rn
I just dont know whether the FSB is just outright incompetent or are the Russians truly this stupid..... like FFS, what does an assassination squad got to do with a SIMS game? Iam just shocked. Hell, somalia's intelligence may be even more sophisticated than those monkeys living in Russia.

Honestly, by now, comparing monkeys to the current Russians may be an insult to monkeys as even monkeys arent that stupid

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518775816636801024

maybe theres something to this whole "magic washing wheel go brrrrrrr....yay!" thing after all...

 

[Dmitry]

MAM-L are not powerful enough, while Tochka-U aren't long range enough nor it's accurate enough.

My best guess, is special forces sent to blow up the bridge. But that won't come easy as the bridge is now heavily guarded.

How about this option? Strike with the American M142 HIMARS, which has a range of 300 km.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

russian Special Forces - "Spetsnaz"
Some of their special equipment

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518937782428868610

Recep Ivedik approves!

"Pis burun!"

 

[Nilgiri]

Heres what I think Russian plans might be..

View attachment 43154

With:

1) moskva sunk (AAW capacity halved in one fell swoop)

2) neptune AShm numbers + potency unclear (and UKR will do everything it can to keep it that way....just look how careful they have been with releasing any Tb2 footage)

3) Plenty of LZ preparation by this point, especially since this is the last stretch of coastline ukraine has remaining.

4) NATO help regarding all the points above


I very much doubt Russia will try any landing like this given the high risk of commiting such a force concentration for it (which they have been amply terrible at so far)....especially without taking Odessa area first.

It will be another Dieppe that unfolds, possibly worse.

 

[Manomed]

Russian troops launched a missile attack on the railway bridge in Zatoka, Odessa region. As a result of the missile strike, the bridge from Zatoka towards Belgorod-Dnestrovsky was closed. The bridge was used to supply fuel from Moldova to the Ukrainian army. Also, warships of the Russian Navy launched a series of strikes on targets on the coast of the Odessa region.

The units of the Russian Armed Forces took control of a large base for the storage and repair of equipment left by the Ukrainian army. A large amount of Ukrainian military equipment was captured, about 100 units in total. Among the trophies of the air defense "Tunguska", air defense "Shilka", radar stations, means for servicing military equipment. In the hangar there were workshops for the repair and restoration of damaged Ukrainian equipment.

Those Tunguskas seem Unoperational Unlike some Ukrainians doesn't use them.

 

[Nilgiri]

I really hope you are right. The question is how far they are willing to go, and how many civilians they are willing to sacrifice. The Russian economy is well in the toilet by now, they won't be able to replace equipment losses like tanks and missiles. Poverty rates and unemployment will also skyrocket as more and more companies leave Russia. It will take them years and years to recover.

That opens up for a pretty scary scenario where Putin figures there is nothing left to lose and escalates into a tac-nuke on Kiev just to shut Zelenskyy up.
Considering his inner circle i doubt anyone there will have the strength to stop him if he would decide to cross that final rubicon. Accepting a humiliating defeat and/or a decade or so of economic stagnation and crippling sanctions could be impossible for him to swallow.

The best case scenario, at least from the non-russian side would be an utter defeat for Russia, 1945 rather than 1918. Revanchism from the defeat would be huge and they still have a ton of nukes. Rather not see someone even more unstable than Putin in charge of that arsenal

Any use of a nuclear weapon by Russia will prompt a full annihilation of it.

This has been communicated to them in the strongest terms possible (it is not talked about that much though).

Putin knows that and he has already gambled enough and lost.

He may salvage something (for his people and his persona) out of "holding" the corridor created between donbass and crimea.

That is infact what I first though would be the limit of objective if Russia went for war to begin with.

Here are my earlier pre war posts:

april 2021:

Ukraine-Russia War

defencehub.live

december 2021:

Russia lacks the offensive capacity to invade Ukraine.

I think if the Russians had the capacity they would have invaded Ukraine by now. I was actually shocked by the fact the Russians have mobilized about a 1/4 of its armed forces and it just about outnumbers 1/2 the Ukraine army. In the old days the Russians could have mobilized ten times this...

defencehub.live

as I sensed that is all Russia really was capable of logistically and financially (if it went for a war gamble in first place)

They stupidly went all out on Kiev etc as well, in a full "all in" that they were totally ill-prepared to see out past a week or two (if Ukraine stayed firm and went to work on methodically severing and liquidating russian invasion forces getting stuck there just like what ended up happening).

Given all this I very much doubt they will do anything more than saber rattle regarding their nukes.

NATO intel assets are keeping tabs on the moscow warhead authority (the name escapes me)....the NFZ "status quo" will be broken by NATO if they see indication of any decision + evidence to mate those with say iskanders.

Just like NATO has various analysis and resources it has regarding the state, presence and threat value of the delta SSBNs.

Russia most definitely does not want to charge into that precipice at all.

They (USSR) were lucky to escape the last one in Cuban missile crisis given what LeMay was pressuring Kennedy to do.

"Sooner or later we will have to fight these people, and we might as well do it now when we enjoy 10:1 strategic superiority".

 

[Dmitry]

Here is an interesting article about Neptune rockets with spy details.
About how Russia blocked their development, about how they were miraculously rescued from warehouses before a missile attack and delivered to the coast, about how an artificial malfunction was discovered in them right before use.

https://censor.net/en/news/3334018/after_shelling_of_warehouses_of_luch_design_bureau_all_neptunes_were_found_intact_chornovol

I think there will be a lot of litigation with this. Rumors have long been circulating in Ukrainian society that there are traitors and Russian agents in the top leadership and around Zelensky. Basically, these rumors are based on the closing and sabotage of weapons programs during Zelensky's term.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Threatening to use nukes is a clear sign of desperation.

 

[Nilgiri]

Military defeats in ww1 led to the Tsar getting overthrown.

Perhaps it can happen here.

Russians cant accept defeat no matter what. They will find something to save face.

Something along the lines of mariupol + corridor providing it (sadly)....for some extended length of time (I really dont know when/if Ukraine will get enough force concentration ability to remove Russia from all of these spots and crimea + donbass too without causing major costs on Ukraine too).

Rest will likely be some form of Russia clamming up, becoming a client state of China....and turning into a very large version of North Korea essentially.

It will not be rehabilitated and will shrivel to an even lesser entity than it is now....further enhanced by emigration and persistent demographic issue continuing.

During this long term process, Russia could sign peace deals, armstices etc (to gather RnR time and test everyone else's resolve/attitude to it etc)....but re-enter a war state each year or every so many years to "flex" whatever it can on Ukraine (just like you said Russia will not psychologically let things go at these tiers of mental + blood investment)....especially if some opportunity arises for it.

So Ukraine and allies basically have to prep and evolve strategy for this.

Ukraine will survive (and large core of it hopefully gets back to some working order) but be subject to further manic bear attacks (in the problem zones and border areas) ....over extended period of time till the bear is bled out and aged enough....and faces some resolution on that stuff way downroad. Too far away (IMO) to really contemplate and analyse though.

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518998355380248576

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518961758525923328

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519068953598959617

 

[Hexciter]

Britain decided to give the latest technology long-range radar-guided search-and-destroy anti-tank Brimstone missiles to the Ukrainian army.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519060978641608704

 

[Lordimperator]

Ukraine will survive (and large core of it hopefully gets back to some working order) but be subject to further manic bear attacks (in the problem zones and border areas)

Larger scale of North & South Korean warzone, also any chance Ukraine would get the Crimean back?

 

[chibiyabi]

Larger scale of North & South Korean warzone, also any chance Ukraine would get the Crimean back?

then all the hardwares promissed to UA should be on the ground right now if that want to happen.

 

[HTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519068953598959617

This is a significant and huge escalation.

Bulgaria is heavily dependent on Russian gas.

I wonder if Turkey is going to start delivering gas to Bulgaria which, in fact, is Russian gas. In case of Sofia, this could be seen as a symbolic Russian sanction. Poland on the other hand needs to start rationing gas, I guess.

 

[HTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519057068296183808

Well.

 

[HTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518743189657694208

 

[UkroTurk]

Still Poland and Bulgaria can reverse import Russian gas from other EU countries.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518961758525923328

AFAIK Gepard doesn't use programmable ammunitions it won't be effective like Korkut.

Those Tunguskas seem Unoperational Unlike some Ukrainians doesn't use them.

Again , regarding Tunguska ,they can't be effective against cruise missiles since they don't use programmable ammunitions.

Turkish Korkut CIWS have happened a mere effective SPAAG currently.

 

[UkroTurk]

How about this option? Strike with the American M142 HIMARS, which has a range of 300 km.

View attachment 43168

Ukraine can hit the Kerch bridge with Neptune's .

We don't know which rockets of HIMARS have been supplied. Just ATACMS has 300km range.

İ think they just supply GMLRS. Let's see.

Meeting Announcement for S. 3522, the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022

The Committee on Rules’ consideration of the following measure is postponed subject to the call of the Chair: H.R. 350—Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2022 The Committee on Rules will still meet on Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT in H-313, The Capitol on the following measure:

rules.house.gov

The Committee on Rules will meet on Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT in H-313, The Capitol on the following measures:

• S. 3522—Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022

Lend-lease will enable Biden rapidly send weapons to Ukraine.