Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Glass🚬

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Polls are starting to hurt Scholz and he counterattacks by taking small steps...




What is german ppl thinking? Inflation is rising as hell and we didn't even send a tank.

ye, recession bells ringing already. gonna be interesting how benzin prices will go up now when its already this high.
 

Nykyus

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Israeli expert interview


Mikhail Gorin TV presenter
- And David Sharp, a military observer for the Israeli weekly "News of the Week", is in touch with us. Hello David.
- Good afternoon, Michael
- In recent days, reports from the fronts have changed. I mean from the fronts in Ukraine. If earlier there was a lull at first, then fighting began in the Donbass, but, as all experts noted, at first the parties checked each other and there were no such hostilities. But in recent days they are talking about the advantage of the Russian army, which is advancing in certain directions, and they are talking about their successes, achievements and the high density of this offensive. Please tell me how you can explain this turning point, if you can call it that, and the fact that the situation there has developed as Ukraine itself recognizes, if not desperate, then very serious.
- Uh, well, first I'd like to correct this a bit. In fact, the active offensive operations of the Russian army in the Donbass have been going on since the second half of April, there are different dates from which you can start a certain starting point, but this is not the point. This means that offensive active operations from the moment, or rather after a pause, when the troops were withdrawn from the Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv regions, ... er ... they were carried out all the time, and also on a fairly wide front, but in miniature when compared with an initial general offensive with spread fingers in different directions throughout Ukraine. So they went, and the main direction was, among other things, Izyum, from the side of the city of Izyum, and, of course, attempts to take full control of the rest of the Luhansk region with cities. There are two main settlements here, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, these are quite large cities. So offensive operations were carried out, the successes of the Russians were very small, but over time, to one degree or another, they accumulated. I note that there were many failures, the Russian army suffered serious losses. And at the moment, in fact, at the moment, the following is happening: by and large, this broad offensive in the Donbass, which has been going on since April and a significant part of May, has narrowed even more. That is, the Russian command has narrowed in terms of the width of the front. The Russian command, well, this is actually, everyone learns in the war to one degree or another, learns, including from their failures, and the same thing happens with the Russian command, which the more, the more to follow some, let's call it a textbook, in particular these textbooks, however, are reminiscent of the Second World War, but at least it is, from their point of view it is better, the way they started the war, they started the war is amazingly simple ... er ... with a minus sign. That is, they are trying to act according to textbooks, being a little more careful and approaching their tasks more realistically. So, at the moment, their main successes, if summed up like this, and the main potential for their further successes, is a ledge, the centers of which are the cities of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. In all other directions, we say today: war is a dynamic matter, it is difficult to predict anything, in all other directions of this Eastern Front, we also have the Southern Front, there is the right bank of the Dnieper - this is a separate conversation, but the main this Eastern Front, at the moment, Russian offensive actions are more or less stopped by the Ukrainian army. Somewhere the Russian military are licking their wounds, somewhere they are regrouping, somewhere they are pulling up reserves, this or that offensive is possible, but by and large it has been stopped, in particular, it concerns the very city of Izyum, which was talked about a lot during the week. But the situation on the Severodonetsk ledge is very alarming for the Ukrainian army, and here, by and large, here, in addition to external observation, I rely on some Ukrainian military sources, which I consider very serious, by and large Severodonetsk, possibly Severodonetsk with Lysichansk, are under the threat of operational encirclement and the city must apparently leave. Here, Severodonetsk will be abandoned. The question actually seems to be this: will the Ukrainian command manage to leave it competently, not only competently, but with the least damage, because the hit of large units in the environment, and we were evidence of such a situation in Mariupol, by the way, is a separate interesting conversation that happened and how much the game was worth the deal regarding the siege of Mariupol, and so the hit of large units, and very combat-ready ones, into the environment, and if the units that are surrounded are not released, these are definitely irretrievable losses, it doesn’t matter, at the first stage they can divert large enemy forces onto themselves , they can cause very serious damage to the enemy, at the second stage, the diversion of forces will not be significant, but most importantly, these are irretrievable losses, which is unacceptable for the Ukrainian armed forces and therefore I think that their plan will be to move away from the place of a clear potential encirclement with the least damage, retreat to prepared positions, take up a solid defense. Uh ... that’s why this is it, the successes that we see in fact, the advance of the Russian army was very small, from the same Popasnaya breakthrough towards Belogorovka, legendary, by the way, at the crossing over the Seversky Donets, despite the fact that the Russian the army somehow learns from its mistakes, there were in this place, in others ... uh ... at least three attempts to cross, which ended in a local disaster, when the Russian army in one of the cases from 70 to 100 armored vehicles were abandoned and destroyed, and there is video and photo confirmation of this ... uh ..., but these attempts are a separate conversation.
Now it is worth noting that the situation in Severodonetsk is difficult, it will most likely be abandoned in the near future. How exactly this will happen, we will see. But in general, in other places, the Ukrainian army holds the line, and if they retreat, then slowly.
We must understand the advantage in firepower, in firepower, in equipment, especially in aviation, it is on the side of ... er ... the army of the Russian Federation. Lend-lease has already started working, but, firstly, not yet at full capacity, and secondly, even what has been delivered, it still needs to be fully mastered. The main task of the Ukrainian army is gaining time, at the moment gaining time when inflicting maximum losses on the enemy, gaining time in anticipation that ... uh ... incoming weapons from the West will be mastered and new units will be prepared and formed in the rear, but new units are being formed in the rear. Both this and that is a non-trivial task, not a task of several days, or even weeks, therefore time is very important, and during this time not to suffer heavy losses and try to inflict those on the enemy so that he is exhausted.
- Well, apparently, everything that you say is understood by the Russian side, which is why they are increasing their offensive in these areas as much as possible. Tell me, please, if what you talked about happens: Severodonetsk, Lysychansk will be abandoned, according to what scenario? - this is the second question, what will this give the Russian side.
- Well, about Lisichansk, I would not be in a hurry, again, it is important not to get ahead of ourselves, whether with a plus or minus sign. What will it give ... well, quite large, if Kherson is left out of the brackets ... Kherson, Melitopol, occupied in the very first days of the war, Mariupol not so long ago, well, Mariupol was doomed from the very beginning, the whole question was how long its defenders, and there there was heroic resistance without exaggeration, they can hold on. So this will be the first large, truly large settlement of Severodonetsk, which they will take. It will be a tactical success purely on the battlefield, and, of course, a propaganda success. In addition, Severodonetsk and Lysichansk ... again, we are moving into the field of propaganda, these are the last, in fact, large settlements of the Luhansk region. Initially, most of the Lugansk region was under Russia, in general, initially. Here, if they take it in its entirety, this is some kind of image in the PR area that you can flaunt. In addition, they even say... er... they say, even Lavrov said yesterday or the day before yesterday that the liberation of the DPR and LPR is our goal, which we clearly outlined. In fact, there are more goals that he hints at more or less directly. But now, having occupied Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, again at the moment this is purely hypothetical, they can talk about the liberation of the LPR and some achievement of one of the goals of the operation, a goal that was drawn in hindsight.
- Well, it’s clear, that is, theoretically, the Russian side can say at any moment that the tasks of the special military operation that they outlined and launched have been achieved and stop the hostilities.
- Well, they can say something. The question is how they will sell it to their own population, and here we will notice that this is about the Luhansk region, about the Donetsk region - there is still far from their task in terms of its complete capture is far from being completed. So, with the Donetsk region, if they can with the LPR in the event of the occupation of Severodonetsk and maybe further Lisichansk, this is not the case with the DPR and, accordingly, everything continues here. In addition, who knows what is in the head of Mr. Putin, it is difficult, one can only guess. Initially, according to all the signs and objective data, all the information, it is natural that he did not set a goal when he started with the capture of the purely Donetsk and Lugansk regions as a whole, the goals were much broader, I think that they have not abandoned them even now, but at least some of them. How they are going to implement this and what is on their mind both militarily and strategically is an interesting question, one can argue, one can start from their actions on the fronts. But what will we do in the near future, but for now Severodonetsk is a weak point in the Ukrainian defense, this is a place where the Russian army has the potential to advance, this is obvious.
- David, please tell me, returning to your words about the supply of weapons under Lend-Lease - this is from the American side, European countries also continue to supply weapons. True, there are disputes about which weapons will be supplied and which will not. For example, the Americans today announced quite officially that they will not supply weapons with which the Ukrainians will be able to shell the territory of Russia. The question is: all these deliveries - will they be able to balance the forces of the parties, I mean Ukraine and Russia? That is, to make them approximately equal? Or is it all the same superiority in fire, tactical, weapons, technical equipment, in terms of the number of personnel, Russia will still have an advantage?
- Er... well, first of all, supplies, part of the supplies that were made before the war even without lend-lease, during the war before lend-lease and now these days, it has already played a huge role. That is, in the fact that somewhere the Russian army ... A huge role in the successes of the Ukrainian army and in how the successes of the Russian army are limited, and somewhere they are reset to zero in the truest sense of the word, that is, this has already played and is playing a huge role. So... now, as to whether they can? It all depends on the pace of deliveries, the quantity and range of weapons. And this is largely a political decision. It is difficult to predict anything here, well, on the other hand, two and a half months ago it was difficult to predict that, for example, Western-made heavy artillery would go massively. Today, by and large, we can talk about mass deliveries of ... er ... precisely Western-made 155-mm heavy artillery. In total, plus or minus, if you estimate only open sources like this, because it happens in hindsight, it turns out that something has arrived that was not previously announced from one side or another, and so here is the number of 155-mm guns - self-propelled and towed, that arrived and literally in the coming days will be like a fait accompli in Ukraine, plus or minus to the 200th. This is a very significant quantity, this is an essential quality. Here you can say who exactly put what. In total, by the way, from European countries, if each drop by drop, but in general a lot comes.
- Well, it still takes time to master this technique.
- Undoubtedly. That is why...
- Prepare staff.
- Yes.
- Well, here, by the way, we can return to Biden's statement, who said that, this is a good example, Biden said that we will not supply missiles that are capable of hitting Russia. Uh ... this is a slightly vague statement, because in those places where the border, where the Ukrainian troops are on the border, yes, to strike at the territory of Russia sometimes 500 m, something with a range of 500 m is enough. Therefore, I don’t really understand , what does he mean. But here it is still worth emphasizing this statement. Over the past few days, it has been talked about that the Americans will approve the delivery, but in fact this matter has been decided, like, as they say, from hour to hour, from day to day, we must receive some kind of official statement about what exactly is being delivered. But we are talking about the supply of the so-called MLRS, that is, American-made multiple launch rocket systems. So far, Czech systems, Polish ones, in fact the same Soviet counterparts, have been supplied to Ukraine. So the Americans made this decision. This means that the whole question is here - these are important weapons systems that can seriously affect the course of hostilities. That is, not that they can directly change, but they can seriously influence. It depends on the quality, on the quantity, on the nomenclature. What we have?
These are some installations from which various missiles can be used. There are missiles, cluster missiles, missiles with a cluster warhead with a range of 32, 45 kilometers and, finally, 70 kilometers of high-precision missiles. So, I assume that if the Americans deliver at least with a range of 32, 45 and these high-precision 70 km, a large number of installations, a large number of missiles - this will be a huge step forward in strengthening the Ukrainian armed forces and in everything related to the balance on front lines. If, as I understand it, purely my guess, Biden meant not to supply missiles capable of hitting Russian territory, he meant the range of ammunition that is over 70 kilometers, and it can also be used from these installations. Is it so? Or it was about something more nomenclature going wider than 70 and above, we'll see soon. But this is an example of such a weapon, like 155-mm artillery, which can very seriously affect the balance of power. Weapons, ammunition and reconnaissance systems, thanks to which these guns and missile systems can be used for their intended purpose. If you can't find a target on the Russian side, no matter how many guns you have 100 or 1000, that is, target designation is important. Intelligence, target designation - these are unmanned systems, these are radars, this is help from the Americans, for example, in terms of satellite intelligence. So, if these funds are available in the right amount, as well as armored vehicles, which, in general, are also not enough, I'm talking about Western-made armored vehicles, the Ukrainian army can not only successfully restrain the Russian offensive, but also counterattack itself. The whole problem is that at the moment you can say this: lend-lease is late, that is, it is late, someone will say that it is generally three months late, someone will say a month. But even if we are modest and say that the pace and quantity are a month behind what would be more or less optimal, this is quite a serious period. But a lot depends on the Western allies. If they decide, first of all, the Americans, of course, although the Germans are here too, if they decide on quick deliveries ... er ... a wider range of armored vehicles, artillery and precision weapons of a fairly long range, at least what I noted - 70 km and below, then the Ukrainian armed forces, well, the country's leadership itself, the people of their country can look at the future with great optimism. I have no doubt about this, but again, everything depends on political decisions in the West in this regard.
- David, thanks for your comments. All the best
 

blackjack

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This is clearly a Smerch ...Tornados has half the launchers. That explains why the reload time is cut by half.....and even more times will be needed to arm those missile with fuzes. HIMARS has automatic fuze btw
hw.PNG
this looks like your old photo but 12 launchers

1654094855386.png

and it seems that most are (>136) Tornado-G ( A glorified version of the Grad 122mm MLRS) instead of the heavy Tornado S. There only like 20 Tornado S lolol
deagel source gives production number of 40 for the tornado-S since wiki doesnt account for 2020 or 2021 https://www.deagel.com/Artillery Systems/Tornado/a002668 and even with the 40 number you can go give Ukraine 100 or 200 or 500 HIMARs but it wont stop the range dilemma for the Ukrainians. https://rzhevtorg.ru/drugoe/kompleks-tornado.html?

MLRS "Tornado S" is focused on long distances. Due to the loss of accuracy in unguided projectiles, these installations use additional guidance systems. This made it possible to increase the range of destruction to 200 km, although the greatest efficiency is achieved within 120 km. Targets are hit by a salvo or single launches.

And the scant information about the appearance in Russia of the latest long-range guided missile for the Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system sounds quite fantastic. It is capable of hitting targets at a range of up to 200 kilometers with a deviation of the hit from the designated "point" by only a meter!
 

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MOSCOW, June 1. /TASS/. Sukhoi and MiG companies merged with the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), a member of the Rostec state corporation, press service of UAC said on Wednesday.

"Relevant records were made on June 1 in the United State Register of Legal Entities," the press service said. The UAC Board of Directors approved the merger in November 2021 and shareholders of three companies supported it in January 2022, it added.

"The implemented restructuring ends an important stage in corporate transformation of UAC, which implies in particular the transition from the three-tier to the two-tier governance system in the corporation. Sukhoi and MiG brands, strong and known worldwide, will remain in produced aircraft and reputed designer schools will continue developing," Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov said in a comment.


The strike was delivered by the teams of Russia’s Central Military District, the Russian Defense Ministry specified

MOSCOW, June 1. /TASS/. The Russian Defense Ministry uploaded a video clip showing Uragan multiple launch rocket systems striking Ukrainian camouflaged combat hardware.
"The Defense Ministry of Russia posted clips showing the teams of Uragan multiple launch rocket systems fulfilling firing tasks during the special military operation," the ministry said in a comment to the video.
In fulfilling their assigned missions, the Uragan teams received reconnaissance information supplied by Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles, it said.
"After receiving the target data, the battery moved into its firing position and delivered a strike against the enemy’s camouflaged armor and stronghold, using the reconnaissance data provided by the Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles," the ministry added.

The strike by Uragan multiple rocket launchers was delivered by the teams of Russia’s Central Military District, subsequently wiping out the Ukrainian army’s armored vehicles, manpower and firepower, the ministry said.
The 220mm Uragan multiple launch rocket system is designed to strike enemy manpower and armor on the march and in amassment areas, cripple command posts and military infrastructure sites at a distance of 10 km to 35 km. Put into service in 1975, the rocket systems boast a high maneuverability and are able to be rapidly deployed. Russia’s Uragan underwent its baptism of fire in Afghanistan and was employed during the Chechen campaigns and in Syria.
 
E

Era_shield

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Lets have a Facts about russian junks compared with West platforms
Russian zombies mass-reported that tweet so that non-members can't see it, so here it is in full:

Thomas C. Theiner


russian trolls in my mentions: "You're afraid to compare the M270 and M142 to the super-modern russian Tornado (G/U/S) launchers!"

Fine, let's have a laugh 🧵

1) Tornado-G is an "update" of the BM-21 Grad that still needs to be loaded by hand.

1/n Image
The Tornado-G has a GLONASS receiver and can be aimed and fired from the cabin... but no guided rockets exist for it and the rockets have just 25-30% of the range of GMLRS missiles. And as the targeting computer doesn't always work - the russians had to re-add optical sights.
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2) The Tornado-U doesn't exist. You read that on wikipedia, didn't you? There is an Uragan-1M, of which in 8 years only 6x were built. It can fire Uragan and Smerch missiles (as in the photo). Do guided Uragan missiles exist? Nope.

For this one the russians copied the
3/n Image
American missiles-in-a-pod reload system (photo). So yeah, the Uragan-1M is better than an BM-27 Uragan, thanks to GLONASS, fire computer, and faster reloading... but it doesn't have guided missiles and the unguided rockets it fires have less than half the range of GMLRS.

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3) Tornado-S is an update of the BM-30 Smerch. It has GLONASS, a fire computer, and can be fired from the cabin... but as with the Tornado G, the russian had to add back optical sights for this one.

Only 20 were built as due to russia's endemic corruption the company making
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them went bankrupt in 2018.
And yes - the Tornado-S still needs to be reloaded missile by missile, which takes an hour (photo).
Of the much promoted 9M54x guided missile series only the 9M542 entered mass production in 2014, but just around 400 have been built since then.

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During the same time the US bought 60,000 GMLRS missiles.
And as russian precision machinery sucks the CEP of the 9M542 (photo) is 100% worse than that of GMLRS missiles.

Now you know, why it didn't make sense to compare the junky Tornado-G/S and Uragan-1M to GMLRS systems.

7/n Image
• • •
 

Ecderha

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Great video of a Ukraine father coming home.

Isn't this what every free man and woman fights for?
For family?
For their way of life?
For country?
For FREEDOM?

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What is russia and Putler fighting for?
Stealing grain?
Land?
Other people prosperity?
Hate and envy?
When you see a Russian tank loaded with loot
 

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