Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Era_shield]

Here’s a list of the times nuclear states clashed, either with a non-nuclear or another nuclear state, and the clash was either a loss or stalemate for the nuclear armed state, but nuclear escalation did not occur. It’s not rare for nuclear states to take loss without escalating

• 1953 USA and UK - Korea
• 1959 and 1961 USA - Cuba
• 1956 UK - Egypt
• 1962 France - Algeria
• 1962 USA and USSR - Cuban M Crisis
• 1967 UK - Aden
• 1957 PRC - Northern India
• 1969 PRC and USSR
• 1975 USA - Vietnam
• 1975 PRC and China
• 1979/80/81/84/88 PRC - Vietnam
• 1987 PRC and India
• 1989 USSR - Afghanistan
• 1990 India - Tamil Eelam
• 1996 Russia - Chechnya
• 1999 India and Pakistan
• 2000 Israel - Lebanon
• 2001 India - Bangladesh
• 2006 Israel - Lebanon
• 2021 PRC and India

As repeated many times - Putin is bluffing about nukes.

 

[chibiyabi]

Poland wasnt that close to Ukraine for the last 400 years

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579922833752350737

they knew, if UA finish, poland will be next

I must admit, pretty strong defences there
I really wonder how Ukraine will pass through and break such defences

Will Ukraine win it or will Luhansk be forever gone to filthy Russian pig, Putin! Only time will tell

only Ukrainian knew how to deal with russian, they will find a way, with helps from US, british n neighbouring countries except. belarus .

 

[Anastasius]

Russia can produce food, energy and has nuclear weapons, so in reality no one can destroy Russia. Only possibility is that it comes from within. Also , the longer this lasts , there is distinct possibility that friendly governments towards Russia to appear. Basically, they want that the politics of 19th century to return. What other side wants , well Pelosi visit in to Erevan tells you that. These are basically disgusting devils , both want in their own way to play the second half of the game in which the first half ended 1923. Basically all it can be done is to buy the time and do something with it. I think , that's exactly what's happening now.

Russia can't produce all that much food or energy. Even before the war they were cutting supplies to Europe because they are badly needed within (there are cities in Russia who only just recently started having heating - one guess as to why) and using nuclear weapons would be quite literally Russia committing suicide because everyone else will immediately go into panic mode and preemptively nuke them, including their "best friend" China to stop a potential rogue state. Not to mention that it's debatable how much of Russia's nuclear arsenal is actually functional.

Your issues with the West are irrelevant. I don't give two fucks about Pelosi's visit to Armenia, everyone knows Democrats are fishing for votes, I still want Russia to stop being a cancer that poisons everything around it.

 

[Ryder]

 

[Lool]

Russia can't produce all that much food or energy. Even before the war they were cutting supplies to Europe because they are badly needed within (there are cities in Russia who only just recently started having heating - one guess as to why) and using nuclear weapons would be quite literally Russia committing suicide because everyone else will immediately go into panic mode and preemptively nuke them, including their "best friend" China to stop a potential rogue state. Not to mention that it's debatable how much of Russia's nuclear arsenal is actually functional.

Your issues with the West are irrelevant. I don't give two fucks about Pelosi's visit to Armenia, everyone knows Democrats are fishing for votes, I still want Russia to stop being a cancer that poisons everything around it.

Not only that
But using nuclear bomb in Ukraine means the creation of nuclear winter for at least 6 months and this will 100% spread to Russia.
General russian population lives in areas near Europe as it is relatively warmer compared to areas that are far away from Europe; therefore, any sort of nuclear winter that will hide the sun's rays for AT LEAST 6 months means the death of vegetation and life and eventually the indirect end of the Russian Federation

Putin using nukes in Ukraine is akin to killing all of Russia indirectly rather than directly

 

[UkroTurk]

Let us compare;

Greek Army invaded Turkey, they come near to Ankara. Great offensive started and we began to win against Greek army for the first time since the invasion. At that time Greek army calls for ceasefire and Ataturk stops the offensive instead of sweeping them to Agean...

Russia would use this opportunity to bolster their defences in Luhansk and Kherson, and continue to press hard in Donetsk. If i can see that Ukranian officials would be seeing too.

Ceasefire is Russia's decisive tactic.

Remember history.

The First: Russia invaded the Crimea! West, EUR , entire world and some Ukrainians though : " Russians stopped they wouldn't go further."

The Second: Russians didn't stop after the Crimea, they invaded Donbass.. Again the west and entire world believed " Russians couldnt go further."

The third : 2022 Russian army is officially in Ukraine. Russian tanks, fighters, troops, artillery hit civilians. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, mauriopol, Melitopol, Zaporoje were invaded however some of them liberated.

Again Entire world believe : " Russians won't go further because they understand that the western world support Ukraine. "

Now here is the real story

The fourth: 2025, New nationalist president of Russia abolished ceasefire, Russian army attacking on Kharkiv region. 2 million Ukrainian citizens are under siege.

Entire world: " let's give Kharkiv, Russians wont go further, they don't need Kyiv."


The fifth: 2026 , Russian president: "Odessa is Russian City".
The world: give" Odessa and stop the Russians."

The sixth: 2027, The new Russian president claims :" Kyiv is historical Russian capital city."
Again Russian army is in Kyiv Region. Capital occupied.

Entire world :" let give Russians what they want in sake of energy security. The winter is coming.'"

Ukraine brings it's capital to Lviv City.

The seventh: 2030 , Belarus attacks on Lviv . Russians: " there hasn't been any Ukrainian state in history"
The world: "Europe is under Russian threat and let Ukraine be Russians'"


The 8th: 2032, Russians:" Poland has nuclear weapons which could hit Moscow " ..............!!!!

The 9th:???

You may choose the next country maybe Türkiye ?!

 

[Era_shield]

Surprise surprise

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579864482486312960

Progressives are mentally deranged.

 

[Mailman]

Progressives are mentally deranged.

Who is Elon Musk?!??

 

[Gary]

If Kherson fell back to Ukraine, black sea fleet base in Sevastopol is in grave danger to the point where Russia will have to evacuate their fleet due to the threat of HIMARS and other systems like the Harpoons.

I expect very strong Russian resistance in Kherson city itself.

 

[UkroTurk]

black sea fleet base

The base lost its importance since Russian warships can't approach to the western cost of Black Sea.

At the very beginning of the war, it became a base for the transfer of troops and weapons, and the Black Sea Fleet provided them with fire support.

But then the unexpected happened. The flagship cruiser Moskva (and several other ships) was sunk, and the fleet lost significant firepower. The Russian troops had to leave Serpent's Island - not only a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, but also the closest point to Odessa, as well as a foothold from which one could support a potential offensive from Transnistria.

Crimea itself is under attack. An ammunition depot near Dzhankoy exploded, there were explosions at a military airbase in the village of Gvardeyskoye, Simferopol region.

since the explosions on August 9 at the Saki airfield, more than 200 km from the advanced Ukrainian positions. Eight or nine combat aircraft were destroyed there.

In Saki, Russia has lost more than half of the combat aircraft of the local naval aviation, a Western official told the newspaper.


Finally the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine could hit the bridge from its position.



So

After the last strikes, the Black Sea Fleet is mainly a coastal defense flotilla, which occasionally launches missile strikes.

 

[UkroTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579885292605288448

İt sounds like this:

Russians: "let's ceasefire... if Ukrainian Army Stops defeating our Army and they stop taking back occupied territories, We won't hit the Ukrainian city centers and we won't attack on residential buildings".

What does ceasefire mean for Russians ?
Stop killing civilians? No worries, Ukrainian Army don't blindly attack on Russian cities and don't kill civilians.


Please Mr.Erdoğan don't do this...

 

[Lool]

İt sounds like this:

Russians: "let's ceasefire... if Ukrainian Army Stops defeating our Army and they stop taking back occupied territories, We won't hit the Ukrainian city centers and we won't attack on residential buildings".

What does ceasefire mean for Russians ?
Stop killing civilians? No worries, Ukrainian Army don't blindly attack on Russian cities and don't kill civilians.


Please Mr.Erdoğan don't do this...

For this ceasefire to work, Ukraine needs to agree to the deal
I dont think Zelensky will agree while his army is having the momentum and Russia controlling all the strategic lands in Ukraine

If Zelensky agreed, then he is either a moron or a weak assh*le who shouldnt have agreed to such a war and just surrendere Ukraine peacefully; at least lives will be spared

As for Erdogan, I think he wants the ceasefire to reduce the global natural gas prices as it is freaking high rn and this is causing a strain on Turkey's deficit. For september, Turkish current account recorded a 3.1 billion dollar deficit while recording a 6.2 billion dollar surplus (if you exclude the energy bill). Thus, energy alone costs the govt around 10 billion dollars per month and is set to increase even more as a new gas war will occur.

This or either Erdogan is a complete moron who cant understand how wars are waged and I truly hope it isnt the latter

 

[Ecderha]

People which spend time for Analysis of Present Maps, Intel any info which checked is it real or not.
This research work is done in collaboration with
@DefMon3, @NLwartracker and @ArtisanalAPT.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580192296502726657

 

[Gary]

If Kherson fell back to Ukraine, black sea fleet base in Sevastopol is in grave danger to the point where Russia will have to evacuate their fleet due to the threat of HIMARS and other systems like the Harpoons.

I expect very strong Russian resistance in Kherson city itself.

If Ukraine pierce through Nova Kakhovka and Kherson, while simultaneous attacks are launched towards Melitopol, followed by mopping up operations southwards. It would have put them in range to fire ATACMS, Hrim-2s or Harpoons.

Black sea fleet could soon order its ships to set out to sea or face the same fate the Pacific fleet of imperial Russia faced during the siege of Port Arthur in the Liaotung peninsula.

capsized Russian warship in Port Arthur, 1905)

While ships could be readily dispersed, the supporting infrastructure of the Russian navy (fuel, munitions arsenal etc) would not likely be able to evacuate in time before Ukraine started to fire on them.

The Russian navy could be pushed back in the hundreds of km towards the port of Novorosiysk. While losing their ability to lob Kalibr when their arsenal either getting destroyed or captured by advancing Ukrainian.

Hence I see Russia will put maximum effort for Ukraine not to gain foothold in Kherson or Nova Kakhovka.

 

[Lool]

People which spend time for Analysis of Present Maps, Intel any info which checked is it real or not.
This research work is done in collaboration with
@DefMon3, @NLwartracker and @ArtisanalAPT.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580192296502726657

I really wonder what will ukraine do in order to bypass those defenses

 

[Kathirz]

https://censor.net/en/news/3372835/ramstein_meeting_will_be_held_on_october_12_austin

ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS

☝️50 країн , які збираються, щоб допомогти Україні, це означає, що світ гуртується навколо вас, - глава Пентагону 🗣Українські війська змінили динаміку війни, підкреслив Ллойд Остін Українські солдати звільнили сотні містечок від російської окупації та повернули тисячі кілометрів квадратних...

t.me

What would be announced ? I've seen reports about Germany to send more pzh2000 and HIMARS.
US? maybe Reapers? I think it would be a good answer to iranian drones.

 

[Ecderha]

I really wonder what will ukraine do in order to bypass those defenses

Just observation and Think will help to find solution.

"The interesting thing about the Dragon's Teeth is that they are simply precast blocks dropped on the ground.
I seems simple to push a 2 ton block Out of the way with a 40 ton tank.
They are NOT cast into a concrete base or anything."

 

[Ecderha]

More Clear View from other perspective KerchBridge attack

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580045519056826369

 

[Ecderha]

October 7th imagery from Airbus Pleiades Neo shows the temporary bridges over the Nova Kakhovka locks on the dam installed by russian forces in Kherson.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580049554618994688

BTW how much do these images cost?
About $20/km2 for Very High Resolution (VHR) images like Neo, and $10/km2 for high resolution imagery. Normally you end up buying larger areas to look for things of interest, but cut them down for presentation like this. You can find out more info here https://tehrhart.blogspot.com/2022/08/blog-post.html

 

[Ecderha]

Smart Artillery Ammo

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580093468562444288