Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611129090978742278

 

[GoatsMilk]

We're escalating slowly, gauging the Kremlin's reaction, while clearing out the backlog of mostly obsolete Western weapons, which will allow for the purchase of a lot of new toys among the Western countries. In the process, we're bleeding the Russian army (and thus its threat) dry for a generation and deeply hurting the Russian (they're not our friends) economy at the same time. This will be the cheapest price the NATO and its allies will ever have to pay to clean out Russia of its Soviet war arsenal. Ukraine is a willing combatant and the West's interests (the neutering of Russia) are being served.

Make no mistake, the West is fine with this dragging out and costing Russia copious lives and resources. The West has frozen roughly $350 Billion of Russian assets that they'll eventually approve the redistribution of. By comparison, they collectively spent something like $50 Billion supporting Ukraine in 2022. There is PLENTY more to spend before it's actually a spending burden for the West.

There is about 950 million people that live in NATO countries. That number jumps to about 1 billion people when you add the other countries (such as Australia) that are also supporting Ukraine. If we spend $100 Billion making Russia's life miserable, that's only $100 per person living in a NATO country. That's a complete drop in the bucket. By comparison, Canada alone, spent more than $500 Billion dollars to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. That's what ONE NATO country spent. If Canada puts out $5-7 Billion as it's share of spending on Ukraine, that's absolutely NOTHING.

As far Ukraine is concerned their biggest obstacle has not been the Russian army but trying to get her allies to give her the weapons she needs to end the war. Countries like the USA are happy for this drag out because like you say it causes bigger costs to Russia. But i suspect that with the right weapons the Ukrainians could end this war within 3 months.

 

[MaciekRS]

As far Ukraine is concerned their biggest obstacle has not been the Russian army but trying to get her allies to give her the weapons she needs to end the war. Countries like the USA are happy for this drag out because like you say it causes bigger costs to Russia. But i suspect that with the right weapons the Ukrainians could end this war within 3 months.

It looks like we are entering new phase of the war and weapons are finally coming. There are even talks now about Leopards (few from each country, about 100 total).
I wonder why now? Is it because russia decided to put it all on the table with general mobilisation and attack from and with Belarus? We will see in few days.
Russians need to finally understand that they already lost, the more they are in it the more they are loosing.

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukraine and allies know that soon Russia will attack massively in a month.

 

[Relic]

New American $3 Billion defense package for Ukraine has been released and it's enormous. This is what it contains.

50x Bradley M2 IFVs with 500 TOW missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition.
100x M113 APCs
138x HMMWVs
55x MRAPs
18x M109A6 Paladin, 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers
18x Vehicles to support howitzers
36x 105mm Howitzers
70,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells
1200 rounds of 155mm RAAM munitions
500 Excalibur GPS guided 155mm artillery shells
95,000 105mm artillery rounds
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
Undisclosed number of GMLRS rounds for HIMARS
Undisclosed number of RIM-7 Sparrow air defense missiles
4000 Zuni anti aircraft rockets
2000 AT4 anti-armor rockets
Undisclosed number of sniper rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers and small arms ammunition
Undisclosed number of claymores
Undisclosed number of night vision and optics
Spare parts and equipment

That's an insanely large package of goodies (the first of many in 2023). Lots and lots of dead Russians as result of this. Wow! It's plainly obvious that they're equipping Ukraine for a spring offensive. Now that the door has been oppened to Bradleys and Paladins, expect Ukraine to get quite a few of each in subsequent packages. The USA has more than 6200 Bradleys in its inventory and is in the process of buying 700 more of the newest version. They also have about 1400 M109A6 /A7 Paladins. If I were to guess, I would expect about 250 Bradleys and 54 Paladins to eventually make it to Ukraine this year.

More Than $3 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

The Defense Department announced the Biden Administration's commitment of $3.075 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine.

www.defense.gov

 

[UkroTurk]

If I remember correctly There is Czech air defence system that merge BUK platform with Italian equivalent of Sparrow missile, isn't it?
I forgot its name.

Edit:
Found it: KUB CZ with Aspide missile.

https://en.topwar.ru/5504-cheshskie-zrk-kub-s-osnascheniem-raketami-aspide-2000.html

Expecting something like this but with Sea Sparrow.

Currently, the Polish Army is one of the operators of the Kub air defense system

In the 1990-2000s, the most recent Kub-M3 air defense systems went through a series of modernization programs, the purpose of which was to extend the service life, as well as increase combat and operational characteristics.

The main factor limiting the further service of "Cuba" were 3M9M3 missiles with expired service life, and they decided to replace them with a modified Sea Sparrow naval missile system, which also had a semi-active radar seeker.

It was assumed that the use of Sea Sparrow missiles would ensure a cost-effective modernization program, extend the life of the air defense system, retaining the original tracked chassis, with minimal refinement of the SURN.

 

[Relic]

Zelensky confirming that Scholz and the Germans are sending Ukraine "dozens" (you'd assume at least 3 dozen) Marder IFVs, as well as the previously mentioned Patriot Missiles Battery, to match the American contribution.

Merry Christmas Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611390809974214657

Can we get upgraded Slovakian and Polish Mig-29's into Ukraine already? They're ready to part with them. 30-40, along with all the ammunition for them, would probably double the size and strength of the Ukrainian Air Force right now.

 

[Afif]

Zelensky confirming that Scholz and the Germans are sending Ukraine "dozens" (you'd assume at least 3 dozen) Marder IFVs, as well as the previously mentioned Patriot Missiles Battery, to match the American contribution.

Merry Christmas Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611390809974214657

Can we get upgraded Slovakian and Polish Mig-29's into Ukraine already? They're ready to part with them. 30-40, along with all the ammunition for them, would probably double the size and strength of the Ukrainian Air Force right now.

unlikely.

 

[Ecderha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611374804418072576

 

[Ecderha]

putin cannon fodders

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611398213831131136

 

[Ecderha]

night hunt for putin soliders

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611465570448187410

 

[Ecderha]

Enable sound ON

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611349472423940097

 

[bisbis]

It is very interesting, some members say that Ukraine, which is still fighting with the weapons given by other countries, even with volunteers, will soon achieve victory.

I think it's like waiting for the lottery jackpot without buying a ticket. I don't know if you're aware, but the armored vehicles left by the soviets in European countries are gone, countries have started to give away the armored ones they keep in reserve in their warehouses.

even now, they have started to give out old missiles like the sea sparrow, which are still waiting in the warehouse.

If the Russians keep the current state of war without doing anything, maybe 1 year later, no aid will come to Ukraine.

If the russians don't make a new attack, they guarantee the worst current territory.

I am not even counting the economic and social crises in Europe and the USA.

I think Europe cannot survive a cold winter without electricity and a second gas.

In the 2nd winter, European states cannot give their citizens the economic support they used to have.

For this reason, Europe may cut its support to Ukraine and turn to an agreement with Russia despite the USA.

 

[MaciekRS]

It is very interesting, some members say that Ukraine, which is still fighting with the weapons given by other countries, even with volunteers, will soon achieve victory.

I think it's like waiting for the lottery jackpot without buying a ticket. I don't know if you're aware, but the armored vehicles left by the soviets in European countries are gone, countries have started to give away the armored ones they keep in reserve in their warehouses.

even now, they have started to give out old missiles like the sea sparrow, which are still waiting in the warehouse.

If the Russians keep the current state of war without doing anything, maybe 1 year later, no aid will come to Ukraine.

Do you know how many tanks are still in reserve? How many armored vehicles? Not new, but still better then russian ones.
US will start sending Bradleys, they have about 6000 of them in reserve and those are solid enough to even T72s (as they prove in Iraq)
UK have about 500 Warriors, and what about 300 Challengers 1 from Jordan? Jordan is happy to replace it.

In Poland, there are still some 100 PT91 to go and what next? IF US provide us with replacement Abrams, 200 Leo 2 is ready to go. Sonner or later they WILL be gone as our tank force will be of Abrams and K2 (after 2025)

The truth is Russia has many things from cold war era, but the other side has that too. AND whats more important russia CANT outproduce west. They thought Europe will freeze this winter and what happened?

And look how many Ukrainian soldiers went abroad to train on something. You think they train for the 6 months in US, in UK, in Poland just how to shoot from handgun? I dont think so


There is russian forum where today some russian user wrote "This war has long been lost, just not everyone wants to admit it"

 

[Relic]

It is very interesting, some members say that Ukraine, which is still fighting with the weapons given by other countries, even with volunteers, will soon achieve victory.

I think it's like waiting for the lottery jackpot without buying a ticket. I don't know if you're aware, but the armored vehicles left by the soviets in European countries are gone, countries have started to give away the armored ones they keep in reserve in their warehouses.

even now, they have started to give out old missiles like the sea sparrow, which are still waiting in the warehouse.

If the Russians keep the current state of war without doing anything, maybe 1 year later, no aid will come to Ukraine.

If the russians don't make a new attack, they guarantee the worst current territory.

I am not even counting the economic and social crises in Europe and the USA.

I think Europe cannot survive a cold winter without electricity and a second gas.

In the 2nd winter, European states cannot give their citizens the economic support they used to have.

For this reason, Europe may cut its support to Ukraine and turn to an agreement with Russia despite the USA.

This is a really uninformed take.

The reason the USA is sending Sea Sparrow missiles to Ukraine is because they have thousands of them stockpiled and the Ukrainians have retrofitted (with U.S. help) their Soviet made, BUK launchers to fire them. Because they can't get Russian missiles for their BUK launchers anymore, it was imporant to add an ammunition source. The U.S. have thousands of Sea Sparrow missiles just sitting around. These cheap missiles are ideal for intercepting Russian drones so they don't have to waste their more advanced, more expensive NASAM, Patriot, S-300 and Iris-T missiles on them.

The 4000 Zuni rockets the Americans just sent, are being retrofitted to Ukrainian aviation, again, because they no longer have access to Russian rockets. They're ideal for unguided helo strikes, in support of Ukrainian infantry and armor advances. The Americans have thousands more of the Zuni rockets in storage.

Next, we're about halfway through worst of winter alreadyband the Ukrainians are managing. I'm sure it's not comfortable at times, but people are freezing to death en masse, by any stretch of the imagination. In terms of the two armies, the Ukrainians (with the help of countries like Canada, Britain, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Estonia) are much better equipped against the cold. Legacy Russian units at the front line are enduring the winter undersupplied against the cold.

There is looming economic crisis in the West. The United States alone spends $800+ billion dollars on defense every single year. That's about 13x what Russia spends. It's absolutely peanuts for them to send Ukraine $1-3 Billion per month in military equipment. It's literally a drop in the bucket for them compared to their budget.

Some of the European countries my falter in their support, but Britain won't. Canada won't. Germany won't any time soon. Poland won't. Turkey won't (even know thei support is quiet), etc. Those countries have too much to gain from Russia leaving this conflict severely damaged for a generation, with their conventional army neutered.

Russia is going to pay a huge price by continuing to mobilize. Their economy is already contracting. Their gas and oil sales are dipping. Their population has been shrinking and will continue to do as they send hundreds of thousands of their young men to their graves.

Russia is not winning this war. They're posturing like everything is under control, but Putin and his regime know they're in trouble. They can't out spend or outproduce the West. They can't train troops (sufficiently) nearly as fast. They lack the industrial base to keep up it's only a matter of time until all of what's left of their army's will to fight, is gone.

There will be American Abrams and German Leopard tanks delivered in 2023. The stage is being set for them. There will dozens more self propelled howitzers and hundreds more IFVs. Eventually, American F-16s will make their way over as well, when the pilots are trained and the logistics support is in place. The United States, alone, has more than $18 billion more dollars already approved by Congress this year. That's at least 6 more packages the size of the one announced today. Meanwhile, Russia is pulling ancient tanks out of storage, running out of their best cruise missiles and equipping their soldiers like dogs heading to the slaughter.

Russia has bitten off more than they can chew here. They're on a path to becoming alienated from half the world for a generation. All because of an attempted land grab.

Here is the GDP of NATO: $34.2 Trillion.

Here is Russia's GDP: $1.8 Trillion.

Most in the west are willing to be a little bit uncomfortable, in order to watch Russians suffer immensely. They're not our friends.

 

[Bogeyman]

Russia sends more military equipment to Belarus​

More military equipment from Russia arrived in Belarus as part of the Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV), the Belarusian Defense Ministry confirmed on Friday.

In a statement, the Defense Ministry said the bolstering of the RGV is "exclusively in the interests of strengthening the security and defense of the Union State (of Russia and Belarus), based on the evolving situation" at the country’s borders.

President Alexander Lukashenko also visited a military base in the southwestern Brest region where Russian troops are already stationed.

On Oct. 10, Lukashenko said he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the deployment of a joint regional group of troops "in connection with the aggravation on the western borders of the Union State (of Russia and Belarus)."

Up to 9,000 Russian troops and several hundred armored vehicles will join the Belarusian forces on the Belarus-Ukraine border, according to the Belarusian Defense Ministry.

Russia sends more military equipment to Belarus

Russia, Belarus continue to build up regional grouping to ‘strengthen security, defense’ of both countries, says Belarusian Defense Ministry - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[Relic]

Do you know how many tanks are still in reserve? How many armored vehicles? Not new, but still better then russian ones.
US will start sending Bradleys, they have about 6000 of them in reserve and those are solid enough to even T72s (as they prove in Iraq)
UK have about 500 Warriors, and what about 300 Challengers 1 from Jordan? Jordan is happy to replace it.

In Poland, there are still some 100 PT91 to go and what next? IF US provide us with replacement Abrams, 200 Leo 2 is ready to go. Sonner or later they WILL be gone as our tank force will be of Abrams and K2 (after 2025)

The truth is Russia has many things from cold war era, but the other side has that too. AND whats more important russia CANT outproduce west. They thought Europe will freeze this winter and what happened?

And look how many Ukrainian soldiers went abroad to train on something. You think they train for the 6 months in US, in UK, in Poland just how to shoot from handgun? I dont think so

Exactly. Some of these guys seem to be huffing the hopium/copium cocktail.

The Americans not only have 6200 Bradleys, They're in the process of buying 700 more of the newest model. They'll happily give Ukraine several hundred M2 models. Less for them to store.

The Brits are phasing out their Warrior IFVs as well. You'll likely see those get donated. Maybe not all 500 of them, but 200 wouldn't shock me.

Canada builds the LAV 6.0. We have close to 700 of them. The Americans bought about 5000 of them off us. Expect a few hundred of those to make their way to Ukraine at some point if need be.

Not a single Abrams tank has been sent to Ukraine yet. The USA has thousands of them in storage. They could send 500 of them to Ukraine (over time) without blinking.

There are enough Leopard 2's (A4, A5, A6) around to send 200-300 of them to Ukraine as well. Namely from Poland (who is switching to Abrams and K2's), Germany and other western countries that have them in storage.

Poland will definitely send the rest of its PT91's as Abrams and K2's stream in to the country. They likely have a few dozen more T-72's they can send as well.

The Czech Republic and Morocco (funded by USA and Netherlands) are jointly involved in a project that will see about 150 more T-72's be restored, upgraded and sent to Ukraine as well. Ukraine also has hundreds of their own T-72's in storage. Some of them are quietly being sent to Poland, The Czech Republic and Slovakia, for restoration.

Turkey has hundreds of heavily upgraded American made M60 Patton tanks in it's service. They'd like more Leopards instead. A deal at 2 or 3 to 1 could easily be worked out to see Ukraine get 200-300 Pattons in exchange for Turkey getting 100 more Leopards, similar to what the United States did with Poland.

Artillery will not be a concern, especially as the collective West ramps up its 155mm production. 18 M109 Paladins were announced today. The Americans have 1400 more and are buying more of the latest variant. You'll see them send 50-100 of them this year, as ammunition for them comes on line fairly quickly.

France is likely going to send 16 more CAESAR howitzers that were being built for Denmark. The Danes are going to have them re-routed to Ukraine instead.

Ukraine bought 100 Panzerhaubitze 2000's off Germany. They're not due to start arriving until 2024. You'll see Germany instead send more of its existing ones (later this year) in return for keeping some of the new ones as they role of the assembly line. That's best deal for both Germany (who gets brand new howitzers for free) and Ukraine (who doesn't care about them being older models, but needs them now).

Italy is also refurbishing an unknown number (I've heard roughly 30) M109 Howitzers as well. Not sure on the timeline for their arrival in Ukraine, but it will be in 2023.

I'm not sure exactly how many Krab howitzers Ukraine has had delivered from Poland. I know the Poles donated 18 of them and Ukraine bought 60'ish more. I suspect the remainder of them to arrive in Ukraine this year.

Air defenses in Ukraine are only going to keep improving. By the end of 2023 they'll have at least the following. 6 NASAM batteries. 4-6 Patriot batteries. 4 Iris-T SLM. 2 SAMP/T. That's on top of their own S300 systems and things like BUK, using American missiles.

Eventually, you'll see jets sent to Ukraine. The Americans are phasing out hundreds of their older F-16s, which are still considerably more advanced than anything Ukraine is flying now. You can either send F-16's to Ukraine, or you can send Poland and Slovakia F16's in exchange for them sending their Mig-29's to Ukraine.

Training is a huge one. Tens of thousands more Ukrainians are going to train in the U.K. this year. They're then going to go to artillery and armored schools set up by the USA, in Germany. Meanwhile, infantry will train in Poland and other Eastern European countries. Ukrainian Special Forces units will go to unspecified locations and train with / be trained by their Western counterparts.

We're just seeing the beginning of what the West can do for Ukraine.

 

[Nilgiri]

The Ukrainian-Russian war has resulted in much discussion on the tactical and operational use of drones (UAV & RPA) but where does Ukraine's capabilities come from? Join Chris as he talks to Dr. Julia Muravska about the impact of the 2014 conflict on Ukraine's emerging drone industry, the current developments in terms of R&D and construction, as well as further potential of collaboration with NATO and the EU.

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611402791322271744

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611379641276661760

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611341858927693824

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611505817815257088

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611135082739236864

 

[Ryder]

Turkiye has so many M48s and M60s.

We should send them to Ukraine and deny it by saying it comes from another country.

Ukraine will need every new and old weapon they can get.