Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

UkroTurk

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Well, during our war of independence USSR turned out to be our great friend.

So, there are circumstances for everything.
USSR and Russian İmperia were different things. Today what we are seeing is pure Russian imperialism. Fascist Putin acts as if he were the Russian tsar however he hasn't got any Blueblood. İndeed he was a poor christian.

Without Ukrainian scientists, sportmen, Philosophs USSR were nothing.
 

Gary

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And after 2 decades they were in a position to claim the straits and northeastern Anatolia and pushed TR into the US's lap.

Their help to the formation of the Republics first heavy industry steps is undeniable, but on the other hand, the 'great aid' in the war of independence is largely composed of aid from different sources, most of which the communist party both usurped and advertised. The Russians calculated that by giving alms, the Turkish state could become a client state. However, when they realized this miscalculation, they did not hesitate to show their teeth.

The above statement could be the words of an idiot politician of Armenian descent. And it may have even provoked a reaction in the Russian public opinion. But it should also remind us of a vein in Russian dynamics that never dies.
He's talking about Bangladesh war of independence not Turkish war on independence.

The Bangladesh war of independence has support from left leaning India and its Soviet ally.
 

GoatsMilk

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Neither the Russians nor the West nor China could be classified as muslim friends.

Most Muslims know the score concerning the situation with the others, but countless muslims have been hoodwinked into thinking the Russians are their friends. In Turkiye the "Muslim first" are the most ignorant of Russia and their biggest supporters.
 

Gary

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Today what we are seeing is pure Russian imperialism. Fascist Putin acts as if he were the Russian tsar however he hasn't got any Blueblood.

All powers started as criminals, some are successful and some are not.

Russia today is no different.
 

contricusc

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You see, in 2001 in Afghanistan, no one in the U.S will ever imagine that in 20 years time they have to flee the country humiliated...at the time the general wisdom is, we got it under control, we just put a loyalist government in Afghanistan and they're going to fight there instead of us, what could possibly go wrong ? The same naiveness shown today for what appears to be a young war.

Again, you are comparing two very different wars that have nothing in common. In Afghanistan, the US went without local allies to topple a regime and impose a friendly one (something very similar to what Russia tried initially in Ukraine). The US had to create a friendly Afghan regime from scratch, and their “nation building” project failed, as the cultural differences were just too much to overcome. The US thought that with the same strategy they used in Europe to convert former dictatorships into prosperous democracy, they would be able to create a westernized Afghan state. Of course, 20 years were nowhere near enough for something like this. Such a process would probably take more than a century in a country so culturally different such as Afghanistan.

In Ukraine, Russia is trying to make the impossible (erasing Ukrainian identity and culturally erase them). The US has the much easier mission of simply supporting the status qvo, which is an independent Ukraine.

The thing is for Russia, whatever the scenario is, the West is never in the game of Endurance, they got tired, bored, lose interests and so on.

This is a grave misunderstanding and underestimation of the West. By all accounts, the West is playing a long term game of Endurance. Take the EU for example. This is a long term project with objectives lasting decades. The slow expansion and integration of new countries is a process that takes time and endurance. The EU is in it for the long haul. Make no mistake about that. Long term, the EU plans to absorb all the European countries, including the likes of Serbia, Albania, Ukraine or Belarus.

Now that Europeans have an opening at taking Ukraine out of the Russia sphere of influence, they will not give up the opportunity. Even if the US loses interest in the conflict, the EU will not, and the EU has the resources to outlast Russia in any long term conflict.
U.S losses is only piecemeal in number, but again persist long enough (add that to domestic problems) and people will start looking for answer. People will start dumb question like, why are we spending so much abroad, and not build schools instead blah blah blah...and in return the Politicians (who needed their vote) will naturally start to cease support gradually.

The thing is, he benefit of ruining Russia far outweights the cost for the US. Even if the public would get bored of this, the political establishment knows too well that this war is too effective for the US in ruining Russia on the cheap. Remember that the US did not lose interest in arming the Afghan mujahedeen when they fought the Soviet Union. It was the Soviets who decided to pull out and cut the losses.

Motivated yes, but the numbers will not be their advantage...in Afghanistan and Viet Nam the two underdogs understand their weakness and goes underground, Ukraine on the other hand is going head on knee to knee which will gradually scrape their overall power.

Ukraine doesn’t need to go underground because it receives high tech military equipment and can pound Russian forces from a position of strength. By all credible accounts, Ukraine is inflicting more pain to Russia than Russia is to Ukraine on the battlefield. The casuality ratio favors Ukraine, and the weapons depletion ratio also favors them, because the replenishment capacity of the West is much stronger than Russia’s.

Motivation on Ukraine's side would only be effective with continuing support by their Western allies, lose that support and there's no point for Igor to be motivated because there's nothing left to fight Russia with.
This is why Western support will continue. The EU will not stop supporting Ukraine. This is an existential fight from the perspective of Eastern European countries that happen to be part of the EU, and they will continue to push for support. Defeating Russia will resolve many problems for the EU, and will allow it to accelerate the process of expanding in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

The war is like a year long and Bali is getting flooded by men of fighting age from Ukraine (and Russia)

Yes, lots of men will flee the conflict, for good reasons, but this is an issue for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainians have more reasons to fight because they are in an existential war. For the Russians, it’s just a useless war that doesn’t serve any purpose.


Yes, that's why they only likely have to wait long enough until that very support scraped thin enough over time. They have the industry, and more importantly population to sustain this. 142 million vs 40 million its very clear who will run out of men early. Especially when the casualty ratio on both side are humongous.

If Ukraine inflicts casualties at a higher than 1:4 rate, Russia would run out of men first. If Russia runs out of modern equipment first, the casuality rate will greatly increase in the favor of Ukraine. There are many reports saying the Russians are losing men at a 7:1 ratio in Bakhmut, because of their human wave tactics and lack of precision ammunition.

Just in case anyone forget, Ukraine is 2nd rate in importance to other more pressing issues (like Taiwan).

For the US, yes. For the EU, no. And the EU has enough resources to sustain Ukraine until it wins the war. Russia has no way of outlasting the EU economically or industrially.

The war in Afghanistan and Viet Nam is also tiny both from monetary and manpower and loss perspective, but their gradual tiredness is always there and it repeats again and again, either in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq and later on probably Ukraine.
The wars in Viet Nam and Afghanistan did not serve the purpose of eliminating a major geopolitical threat like Russia. The war in Ukraine has more benefits and much lower costs. The cost/reward ratio of this war is much better for the West.
 

Gary

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Again, you are comparing two very different wars that have nothing in common. In Afghanistan, the US went without local allies to topple a regime and impose a friendly one (something very similar to what Russia tried initially in Ukraine). The US had to create a friendly Afghan regime from scratch, and their “nation building” project failed, as the cultural differences were just too much to overcome. The US thought that with the same strategy they used in Europe to convert former dictatorships into prosperous democracy, they would be able to create a westernized Afghan state. Of course, 20 years were nowhere near enough for something like this. Such a process would probably take more than a century in a country so culturally different such as Afghanistan.
But the end goal is the same, the preservation of friendly government. They fail. Miserably
In Ukraine, Russia is trying to make the impossible (erasing Ukrainian identity and culturally erase them). The US has the much easier mission of simply supporting the status qvo, which is an independent Ukraine.
Well that depends on what is the next course of action from both sides, the war is still young, very young, both sides has the means to prolong war for many years to come if need be.
This is a grave misunderstanding and underestimation of the West. By all accounts, the West is playing a long term game of Endurance. Take the EU for example. This is a long term project with objectives lasting decades. The slow expansion and integration of new countries is a process that takes time and endurance. The EU is in it for the long haul. Make no mistake about that. Long term, the EU plans to absorb all the European countries, including the likes of Serbia, Albania, Ukraine or Belarus.
Long term game of endurance in peace not in war where you have to face the ugliness that comes with it.
Now that Europeans have an opening at taking Ukraine out of the Russia sphere of influence, they will not give up the opportunity. Even if the US loses interest in the conflict, the EU will not, and the EU has the resources to outlast Russia in any long term conflict.

Ukraine just in case you forgot anything is already out of Russian influence since the Maidan, now the task isn't to actually "pull" Ukraine, rather its the task of preserving it under orbit. This is historically the hard part.

Not gonna say Russia will 100% win, but its wise not to say Russia will not get it goal 100% too.

My point is, the advantage is clearly there, how are they going to exploit it ? That's Russia's problem.
The thing is, he benefit of ruining Russia far outweights the cost for the US. Even if the public would get bored of this, the political establishment knows too well that this war is too effective for the US in ruining Russia on the cheap. Remember that the US did not lose interest in arming the Afghan mujahedeen when they fought the Soviet Union. It was the Soviets who decided to pull out and cut the losses.
Domestic politics trumps government interests all the time, everytime.

Just imagine the U.S leaving Viet Nam even though they know doing so would likely cause a domino effect on communism in SE Asia, possibly losing grip in that particular region.

Now its up to Putin if he can win the battlefield at U.S home front the way Vo Nguyen Giap manages to do so.


Ukraine doesn’t need to go underground because it receives high tech military equipment and can pound Russian forces from a position of strength. By all credible accounts, Ukraine is inflicting more pain to Russia than Russia is to Ukraine on the battlefield. The casuality ratio favors Ukraine, and the weapons depletion ratio also favors them, because the replenishment capacity of the West is much stronger than Russia’s.

Yes but that makes them easier person per person to kill. Its easier to kill men in arms at the battlefield (and cheaper to do so) rather than the exhaustive effort to track insurgents blending with the population.
This is why Western support will continue. The EU will not stop supporting Ukraine. This is an existential fight from the perspective of Eastern European countries that happen to be part of the EU, and they will continue to push for support. Defeating Russia will resolve many problems for the EU, and will allow it to accelerate the process of expanding in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
50/50, if the war ends fast enough the will of the population stays. But if the war is prolonged long enough the will if the people naturally drops over time to unacceptable level.

In both Viet Nam and Afghanistan during the decades there are other factors that looks very simple yet it led to final abandonment of allies. Menial things like domestic politics, rising gas prices, economic downturn, natural disaster which in turn sway public opinion from being pro war to pro peace quit. You think the people in EU and US is very keen on showing power? So does Ron Kovic and the millions (anti communistic Americans) that supported intervention in Viet Nam. Enthusiasm does always comes early eh ?

I mean just look at the early enthusiasm, modern internet only amplifies what people has been thinking since.


The question is not about if Russia could use the same tactics by the Taliban and Viet Cong, the question is will they opt for that ? Because as easy as it might sounds, long war does atrit both force to unimaginable level of tragedy and sacrifice. The kind of sacrifice that put the Vietnamese into the bomb sight of B-52 in Linebacker II. Will they go for it ? the Russians will have to answer that not me.

But in case they do, please know that this hypothethical fighting force does have the backing of industry and manpower, something earlier fighting force in the last 50 years lacked.
 
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GoatsMilk

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The scary part is that Russians agree with him. The mere thought of capitalizing on a horrible disaster is despicable. The toilet stealing orcs must be terminated with extreme prejudice.

At this point they are a bunch of barking dogs that the world laughs at, however one of the most important things he said was "raising certain forces", basically implying that they are behind separatist forces, namely the PKK.

remember when the Russian jet was shot down and the atmosphere in Turkiye is we were on the brink of war with Russia, the pkk affilated kurds rushed to shake hands with the Russians.


1450869574026.jpg


As Turks and as Muslim we forget that the biggest supporter of terrorism in Turkiye has been the Russian. Its long overdue but all the Muslims and Turkic peoples occupied by Russians should be supported in every capacity possible.

We should be doing more to help Ukraine as a starter.
 

Angry Turk !!!

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At this point they are a bunch of barking dogs that the world laughs at, however one of the most important things he said was "raising certain forces", basically implying that they are behind separatist forces, namely the PKK.

remember when the Russian jet was shot down and the atmosphere in Turkiye is we were on the brink of war with Russia, the pkk affilated kurds rushed to shake hands with the Russians.


1450869574026.jpg


As Turks and as Muslim we forget that the biggest supporter of terrorism in Turkiye has been the Russian. Its long overdue but all the Muslims and Turkic peoples occupied by Russians should be supported in every capacity possible.

We should be doing more to help Ukraine as a starter.
The more advanced our weapons technology is, the easier it will be to kill these monkeys and we're doing quite well in that regard. Some certain Countries should do the same and create a separatist group inside russia.
 

contricusc

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But the end goal is the same, the preservation of friendly government. They fail. Miserably

The big difference is that the Ukrainian government is a natural one supported by the people of Ukraine, while the Afghan and Vietnamese governments were artificial ones with very little local support. There’s a huge difference between the two.

The heavy task of changing the natural government of a country is with the Russians now. They failed in Afghanistan when faced with Western support for the armed resistance, and they will fail even more in Ukraine. Russia is weaker than the Soviet Union, and Ukraine is much stronger than the Mujahedeen of the Soviet-Afghan war.

Well that depends on what is the next course of action from both sides, the war is still young, very young, both sides has the means to prolong war for many years to come if need be.

Long term game of endurance in peace not in war where you have to face the ugliness that comes with it.

The Europeans are ready to play the long term game, no matter if it’s during peace or war. This conflict is in Europe, so we just can’t ignore it and forget that it exists. There are millions of Ukrainians in European countries that will remind us on a daily basis that they have a country that needs to be defended. And there are also Poles, Romanians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Finns who will never forget about this war until Russia is defeated. For us in Eastern Europe, this is not a proxy war that we can forget about. This is an existential war that must be won at all costs.

And it will be won.

Ukraine just in case you forgot anything is already out of Russian influence since the Maidan, now the task isn't to actually "pull" Ukraine, rather its the task of preserving it under orbit. This is historically the hard part.

It’s actually the easy part when the population supports your side. It is hard only when the population is against you.

Not gonna say Russia will 100% win, but its wise not to say Russia will not get it goal 100% too.

My point is, the advantage is clearly there, how are they going to exploit it ? That's Russia's problem.

Russia will lose this war. It is up to them to decide how heavily they want to lose it. The more they prolong it, the heavier their defeat will be. When they started the invasion last year, people were content with just helping Ukraine defend its 2021 borders. Now people want Ukraine to restore its legally recognized pre 2014 borders, and that incoudes Crimea.

If the Russians smarten up, they would try to broker a deal now when they give back all Ukrainian lands in exchange for peace and lifting of most sanctions. But since they are not that smart, they will go on with this war until their country will collapse. If the war drags on for a few more years, Europeans will want to see Russia desintegrate as a punishment for this war. Restoring Ukraine’s border will not be enough.

There are other issues that need resolving, such as Transnistria, Kaliningrad (maybe independence would be a good solution for Kaliningrad), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and why not also Chechnya, Dagestan, the Kuril Islands and more. There are lots of potential independent republics in Russia. They just need the external help to rise up against Moscow, and a weakened Russia.

Now its up to Putin if he can win the battlefield at U.S home front the way Vo Nguyen Giap manages to do so.

Even if Putin wins the hearts of Trumpists, and they manage to win the US elections, he will never win the hearts of Eastern Europeans, the British and the Nordic countries. Half of Europe supports Ukraine no matter the cost, and there is nothing Putin can do to change that.

Europe will not abandon Ukraine, and there will be enough pressure from the European allies so that the US will keep the help flowing as well.
 

Gary

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The big difference is that the Ukrainian government is a natural one supported by the people of Ukraine, while the Afghan and Vietnamese governments were artificial ones with very little local support. There’s a huge difference between the two.

The heavy task of changing the natural government of a country is with the Russians now. They failed in Afghanistan when faced with Western support for the armed resistance, and they will fail even more in Ukraine. Russia is weaker than the Soviet Union, and Ukraine is much stronger than the Mujahedeen of the Soviet-Afghan war.



The Europeans are ready to play the long term game, no matter if it’s during peace or war. This conflict is in Europe, so we just can’t ignore it and forget that it exists. There are millions of Ukrainians in European countries that will remind us on a daily basis that they have a country that needs to be defended. And there are also Poles, Romanians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Finns who will never forget about this war until Russia is defeated. For us in Eastern Europe, this is not a proxy war that we can forget about. This is an existential war that must be won at all costs.

And it will be won.



It’s actually the easy part when the population supports your side. It is hard only when the population is against you.



Russia will lose this war. It is up to them to decide how heavily they want to lose it. The more they prolong it, the heavier their defeat will be. When they started the invasion last year, people were content with just helping Ukraine defend its 2021 borders. Now people want Ukraine to restore its legally recognized pre 2014 borders, and that incoudes Crimea.

If the Russians smarten up, they would try to broker a deal now when they give back all Ukrainian lands in exchange for peace and lifting of most sanctions. But since they are not that smart, they will go on with this war until their country will collapse. If the war drags on for a few more years, Europeans will want to see Russia desintegrate as a punishment for this war. Restoring Ukraine’s border will not be enough.

There are other issues that need resolving, such as Transnistria, Kaliningrad (maybe independence would be a good solution for Kaliningrad), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and why not also Chechnya, Dagestan, the Kuril Islands and more. There are lots of potential independent republics in Russia. They just need the external help to rise up against Moscow, and a weakened Russia.



Even if Putin wins the hearts of Trumpists, and they manage to win the US elections, he will never win the hearts of Eastern Europeans, the British and the Nordic countries. Half of Europe supports Ukraine no matter the cost, and there is nothing Putin can do to change that.

Europe will not abandon Ukraine, and there will be enough pressure from the European allies so that the US will keep the help flowing as well.

I could be wrong....or even right.

Right now it's too early to tell. It's like trying to paint without light, no one really knows where this war really is going.
 

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