Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Western Media are such bullshit liars.

Who created such a bullshit false narrative that Russia is running out of weapons or they barely have any stock.

Weapon factories are still making weapons.

What Ukraine needs is long range capabilities to strike Russia's weapons factories.

The Allies won WW2 due to them striking Germany's weapon factories.

Give the Ukrainian what they need instead everybody is beating the bush with bullshit lies.

So many Ukrainian lives would not be thrown away.

Media from all countries are full of shit, for a variety of reasons... But make no mistake about it, Russia is losing equipment in Ukraine FAR faster than they can replace it. Even with their factories working around the clock to produce new armor, weapons and missiles, Russia's stockpile is dwindling much faster than they try to resupply it.

If you can produce 30 new MBTs per month, that sounds great on paper. Until you realize you're losing 150 per month, 5x what you can produce.

If you can produce 50 new cruise missiles per month, but you launch 100 per month, your stockpile starts to dwindle pretty quickly and you find yourself left with only your strategic reserve worth of them before too long.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... Send you Ukraine the following additional items over the next 12 months and Russia is going to be scrambling to stay in the fight.

MBTs / IFVs / APCs / MRAPs / Artillery

100 M1A1 Abrams MBT
100 Leopard 2A4/6 MBT
300 Leopard 1A5 MBT
100 T-72B MBT
60 PT-91 Twardy MBT
28 Challenger 2 MBT
300 Bradley M2 ODS IFV
100 Warrior IFV
150 Rosomak IFV
60 Marder IFV
60 AMX10-RC IFV
50 CV90 IFV
100 Stryker APC
200 M113 APC
100 VAB APC
200 Maxxpro MRAPS
100 Kirpi MRAPS
100 Bushmaster MRAPS
500 HMMWVs
36 M109A6
36 Panzerhaubitze 2000
36 M777
36 Panzermoerser
36 M120 RAK

Jets
48x F-16 (coalition)
36x F-18 (USA + Australia)

Key weapons systems / munitions

300 JASSM cruise missiles
100 Storm Shadow cruise missiles
100 Taurus cruise missiles
500 AMRAAM-120 missiles
500 AIM-9X missiles
1000 JDAMs
1000 Glide Bombs (1000 lb)
10,000 APKWS / Hydra 70 rockets
200 ATACMS missiles
3000 GMLRS
2 million 155mm HE shells
5000 155mm Excalibur shells
5000 155mm RAAM shells
2000 155mm sMART shells
2000 155mm, Vulcano shells
2000 Javelin anti-tank missiles
2000 NLAW anti-tank missiles
5000 TOW missiles
10,000 AT4 rockets
30,000 GRAD rockets
2500 Kamikaze drones
2500 Ordinance drones
**Cluster munitions**

Russia would just have a nightmare of a time trying to deal with the quantity and quality of those weapons. By the way, everything I just listed would cost less than $250 Billion USD, which is peanuts when split between the 35+ countries supporting Ukraine in the conflict.

 

[Gary]

Western Media are such bullshit liars.

Who created such a bullshit false narrative that Russia is running out of weapons or they barely have any stock.

Weapon factories are still making weapons.

What Ukraine needs is long range capabilities to strike Russia's weapons factories.

The Allies won WW2 due to them striking Germany's weapon factories.

Give the Ukrainian what they need instead everybody is beating the bush with bullshit lies.

So many Ukrainian lives would not be thrown away.

Take the middle path. The West are clearly bullshitting all along when they scream about Russians running out of Weapons, but the truth is, the West when it comes to supplying military equipment has a far larger industrial base than Russia and all it needs is the political will to keep supplying Ukraine until Russia is exhausted and it is achievable.

Only China at this point could tip the Balance in Russia's favor. That is if they wanted to lose trade with Europe.

 

[Ryder]

Take the middle path. The West are clearly bullshitting all along when they scream about Russians running out of Weapons, but the truth is, the West when it comes to supplying military equipment has a far larger industrial base than Russia and all it needs is the political will to keep supplying Ukraine until Russia is exhausted and it is achievable.

Only China at this point could tip the Balance in Russia's favor. That is if they wanted to lose trade with Europe.

If a Kalashikkov factory can be striked it would make a lot of difference for Ukraine.

You cant send soldiers by throwing shoes

Even if with heavy casualties the Russians the factories are still making weapons.

Regardless if its fast or even slow.

 

[Ravager]

Make no mistake about it, the West isn't actually running out of anything critical, it simply comes down to the political will to support things. Here are some examples.

Main Battle Tanks

The United States has more than 5500 M1A1 and M1A2 Abrams MBTs. More than 3000 of those tanks are being stored, with no intention of using them again, as the U.S. continues production of newer versions to replace them. The United States has committed 31 of those Abrams to Ukraine (they'll arrive in the fall) and could easily send them 500 of them (pulled from storage) without degrading their Army's fighting capacity at all. The Marine Corps literally just retired more than 400 M1A1 Abrams as they move to lighter vehicles, and had no plans for those tanks moving. They could be sent to Ukraine by year's end, without the U.S. military blinking

Germany and Belgium have a combined more than 350 Leopard 1 MBTs in storage. Some of those Leopard 1s belong to arms dealers, who supply want to sell them to the Western governments at hyper inflated prices. Again, that's a political decision to negotiate for them, but those Leopard 1s are absolutely available. 130 of them have been promised so far. 220-300 have not been, but could be.

Germany and their private industry also have approximately 50 more Leopard 2 MBTs in storage, requiring modernization before being sent to Ukraine. This can be done at any time. Rheinmetall can get several out the door each month, they just need somebody to pay for the contract. Meanwhile, they're buying 25 more back from the Government of Switzerland than which can also be sent. I estimate that Getmany (through private industry) could send upwards of 75 more Leo 2's to Ukraine, without taking anything from their own army.

Poland has purchased 1000 new K2 MBTs from South Korea and 250 Abrams from USA Their plan is plan is only to feature 2 MBTs in their army, which means the remainder of their PT-91 Twardys and many (eventually all) of their Leopard 2s can be sent to Ukraine as their new MBTs arrive. They possess approximately 100 PT-91s and T-72s that are completely expendable at this point and could be send to Ukraine ASAP. As for Leopard 2s, they probably won't send anymore right now, but as their Abrams' arrive, they could probably send 40-50 more prior to the end of 2023 and into early 2024.

Britain has approximately 230 Challenger 2 MBTs, of which, less than 150 are planned to be upgraded to Challenger 3 and remain in service into the future. Britain has donated 14 Challenger 2s to Ukraine. They could triple that number to 42, without changing any of the long term plans for their tank fleet.

Czech Republic has been modernizing T-72s bought up from around the world by third parties and sending them to Ukraine. Thus far they've modernized about 60 of the initial 90 that were purchased from third partied by USA and the Netherlands . Another 40+ are already marked for the next contract, as the world is scoured for more sellers. By time that Czech initiative is complete, they'll likely to have send more than 150 modernized T-72s to Ukraine, paid for by third parties. They have about 90 more to go.

Between Canada , Spain , Sweden , Finland , Norway , Greece and Portugal there are roughly 40-50 more Leopard 2s that could be donated as soon as a couple months from now. Again, there would have to be the political will to make it happen.

Both Cyprus and Morocco have significant numbers of T-80 and T-72 MBTs that they are looking upgrade with Western tanks. Morroco is purchasing an undisclosed number of Israeli Merkava 2/3 MBTs and the rumor is that the West is going to buy all 158 of them (T-72B3), further upgrade them and send them to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Cyprus has 82 T-80s that Ukraine also wants. Cyprus is rumored to be the second European buyer of the Merkava 2/3s. We could very well see a Western deal where NATO countries purchase the Israeli tanks for Cyprus, in exchange for their T-80s, which would then go to Ukraine.

Pakistan is another interesting source for tanks. The Pakistanani economy is in shambles and they've already been selling arms to Ukraine through British funding and German ports. Pakistan has 320 T-80UD MBTs that were sold to them by Ukraine. The Pakistani government has made it clear that at the right price, they'd be willing to sell some of them back. How many exactly it's hard to say, but it certainly wouldn't be an insignificant amount.

Finally, Ukraine has anywhere from 300-500 T-64, T-72 and T-80 MBTs in longer term storage. It was announced just recently that Ukraine is partnering with Rheinmetall to modify, modernize and repair these stored tanks. Ukraine will send their own engineers and experienced employees to Germany and they'll run the project, with the help of Rheinmetall employees, at their German facilities.

Right there I just showed you 1000-1500 more MBTs that the West could purchase for / send Ukraine, without taking away from their own combat units at all. That represents more tanks more tanks that Ukraine has had since the beginning of the conflict.

How about infantry fighting vehicles?

The United States is building 700 new Bradley M4s and will be replacing nearly 1000 Bradley M2 ODS (the model being sent to Ukraine). The USA can easily afford to send 500-700 of the older Bradley variant to Ukraine. They have more than 4500 of them in operation and they've only committed about 150 of them to Ukraine so far.

Britain has more than 700 Warrior IFVs that they are in the process of being replaced, with deliveries having already started this year. While it will be some time before all of their older Warriors are expendable, they're certainly able to ship a percentage by year's end. The first 100 Warrior IFVS could be in Ukraine by the fall if the political will to get them there exists.

Similarly to Britain, Germany has approximately 400 Marder IFVs that they are in the process of replacing with Boxer AFVs. Germany industry has between 100-200 more in storage. The Germans have committed to sending 60 Marders to Ukraine so far. They could easily double that number by the end of 2023, simply by paying to have private industry sell them out of storage.

Between Sweden , Norway , The Netherlands and Finland . they have more than 1000 CV90 IFVs. Thus far Sweden has stepped up to send 50 of them to Ukraine. Those 4 countries could easily combine to double that number to 100, sending an additional 50..

France has 250 AMX10-RC AFVs that theybare currently replacing. They've committed 40 to Ukraine so far. They could easily double that number to 80, by sending 40 more, as the vehicle is being phased out of their military.

Poland is sending Ukraine 150+ Rosomak IFVs in a deal that was announced last month. Some number of those units can and will be sent to Ukraine right away, with Poland backfilling their own military using newly purchased ones as they roll off the assembly line. Roughly 100 will enter Ukraine during 2023, with the rest to come throughout 2024.

There is roughly 1000 more IFVs that could be donated in very short order, without damaging the integrity of the militaries of any of those nations.

Therefore, I just listed upwards of 2500 MBTs and and IFVs that the West could easily send. None of it's new and none of it is imporant to the fabric of any Western military. I could go on and do the same with armored personnel carriers, MRAPs and artillery, but I think you get the point. It's not correct that the West is running out of armor to send Ukraine. They have more that they could afford to send in the future, than they've already donated to this point. It's all about political will power, Ukraine's continuing will to fight, and how badly NATO wants to neuter the Russian Army.

Just out of curiosity .... Who's going to pay the bills ?? My head still can't wrap around it on how the west could finance the whole bussiness without serious dent in their day to day economy ...

 

[Ryder]

Media from all countries are full of shit, for a variety of reasons... But make no mistake about it, Russia is losing equipment in Ukraine FAR faster than they can replace it. Even with their factories working around the clock to produce new armor, weapons and missiles, Russia's stockpile is dwindling much faster than they try to resupply it.

If you can produce 30 new MBTs per month, that sounds great on paper. Until you realize you're losing 150 per month, 5x what you can produce.

If you can produce 50 new cruise missiles per month, but you launch 100 per month, your stockpile starts to dwindle pretty quickly and you find yourself left with only your strategic reserve worth of them before too long.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... Send you Ukraine the following additional items over the next 12 months and Russia is going to be scrambling to stay in the fight.

MBTs / IFVs / APCs / MRAPs / Artillery

100 M1A1 Abrams MBT
100 Leopard 2A4/6 MBT
300 Leopard 1A5 MBT
100 T-72B MBT
60 PT-91 Twardy MBT
28 Challenger 2 MBT
300 Bradley M2 ODS IFV
100 Warrior IFV
150 Rosomak IFV
60 Marder IFV
60 AMX10-RC IFV
50 CV90 IFV
100 Stryker APC
200 M113 APC
100 VAB APC
200 Maxxpro MRAPS
100 Kirpi MRAPS
100 Bushmaster MRAPS
500 HMMWVs
36 M109A6
36 Panzerhaubitze 2000
36 M777
36 Panzermoerser
36 M120 RAK

Jets
48x F-16 (coalition)
36x F-18 (USA + Australia)

Key weapons systems / munitions

300 JASSM cruise missiles
100 Storm Shadow cruise missiles
100 Taurus cruise missiles
500 AMRAAM-120 missiles
500 AIM-9X missiles
1000 JDAMs
1000 Glide Bombs (1000 lb)
10,000 APKWS / Hydra 70 rockets
200 ATACMS missiles
3000 GMLRS
2 million 155mm HE shells
5000 155mm Excalibur shells
5000 155mm RAAM shells
2000 155mm sMART shells
2000 155mm, Vulcano shells
2000 Javelin anti-tank missiles
2000 NLAW anti-tank missiles
5000 TOW missiles
10,000 AT4 rockets
30,000 GRAD rockets
2500 Kamikaze drones
2500 Ordinance drones
**Cluster munitions**

Russia would just have a nightmare of a time trying to deal with the quantity and quality of those weapons. By the way, everything I just listed would cost less than $250 Billion USD, which is peanuts when split between the 35+ countries supporting Ukraine in the conflict.

Even if it dwindles i doubt it will be running out any time soon as some people said.

As long as those Russian weapon factories are churning out weapons the longer this war will go.

Ukraine cant afford to be locked in a attrition when it will try to liberate all of its territory including Crimea.

 

[Woland]

Just out of curiosity .... Who's going to pay the bills ?? My head still can't wrap around it on how the west could finance the whole bussiness without serious dent in their day to day economy ...

US military aid is just 5.6% of US defense yearly spending. This war provides an excellent opportunity for the US to erode Russia’s military, with no boots on the ground and little risk to US lives. Spending 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy Russia’s military capability for years to come is an absolutely incredible investment. If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia, being the US’s #2 geopolitical opponent, is ~$100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a return of 2x-3x.  Meanwhile the US can pivot to Asia as it wanted, leaving Europe capable of defending itself from a Russian threat for the foreseeable future.

Moreover most of what the West is sending is older equipment that was in the process of being replaced. As the US and other countries send their older equipment, they are placing orders with their arms industry to replace it with modern equipment better suited for the 21st century.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676248699557806080

 

[Gary]

Even if with heavy casualties the Russians the factories are still making weapons.

Russian goal to wholly annex Ukraine is no longer a realistic option. That means, if I'm Putin, the next best thing to do is gearing for a perpetual war, which means the Ukraine state would still exist, but due to war factor its chance to develop and operate normally will be impossible to do, Russia might be under sanction and its economic growth crippled, but its hard to see Ukraine having any economic growth, or outside countries willing to invest in the country which is in an active war. Overtime this will hurt them the same way sanctions hurt Russia.

That means, from Russian perspective, they no longer need to produce weapon to win land, they only need to produce weapons that is continuously available for a forever war. In the goal to exhaust the targeted country. That + relying on captured weapons (as both party did) to re-equip military units.

I think this is what is inside Putin mind when he opted for a long war. Also this is what Blackjack mention some time ago.

This war will be a contest on who get exhausted first, not between Ukraine and Russia, but between Russia and the Western backers of Ukraine. Russia might have the smaller industrial base, but the West have a history of getting tired in the long run even against non industrial power. (lel)

So we will see who blink first

 

[Ecderha]

putin army -> Cargo 200 (code name), the code word referring to casualties for transportation in the russian military
Compressed wood boxes full with putin soldiers bodies.

What you see in the post bellow is that russian army collect dead bodies of putin soldiers.
Then they use Machine to Compress dead russian bodies and putin them in a wood box.
After that they send them to russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676293931179319297

 

[GoatsMilk]

The longer this war goes on the more balance will be shifted in favor of Russia. Ukraine has to gain something with this offensive. Nato might decide to play a bigger hand by giving Ukraine longer-range missiles and fighter aircraft like F-16s but eventually, war comes down to who has more items. Airdefence missiles for the Ukranian systems will dry up, ammo stocks will dry up, barrels start cracking, etc. NATO countries eventually will feel the fatigue of war as none of those systems are free in fact NATO systems are really expensive.

Just yesterday things were so bad that wagner marched on Moscow.

The industrial capacity of the west absolutely shits on the industrial capacity of Russia. If America handed over just %5 of the military hardware they currently hold, forget manufacturing anything new, it would make Ukraine the 3rd most powerful nation on earth after the USA and China.

The longer it goes on the worse it is for Russia, hence why the attempted coup, hence all the panic and hence why they needed it to be a 3 day war.

All Ukraine has do, is what she's doing now, gradually grind down and whittle Russian forces away, western hardware is going to keep coming.

Remember the most potent and powerful tool Russia had going into this war was their information war. they have been at it every stage of the way trying to convince the world that ukraine is a lost cause and everything goes good for Russia. beginning with the retreat of Kiev calling it a "good will gesture".

As far as NATO is concerned this is the best thing that could have happened, they all get screw Russia and none of them need to do any of fighting or dying.

The only strategy i see left for the Russians other then to retreat and accept defeat is continue a propaganda campaign to try and deceive the west into not supporting Ukraine under illusions that it is a futile endeavour. That's all they got left.

So every time i read these reports that seem to portray the war is lost for Ukraine, i really just see a Russian paid shill. Remember we had the same bullshit even before the war started trying to convince us that the best Ukraine could have done was surrender. You got to wonder how many western media personalities on the Kremlins payroll. They were able to bribe top bureaucrats, a journalist on 30K to 50K a year would be exceptionally easy to bribe.

I even suspect some of the big twitter handles shilling for Russia are receiving kickbacks from Moscow.

 

[Ecderha]

newest russian High tech copecage!
As one Ukraine solider posted at beginning of russian Invasion -> "Thank God that they are so stupid"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676298639344300034

 

[Ecderha]

Ukraine army.
Got be love it.
Moto: Stay Positive

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675973206828625920

 

[Relic]

Just out of curiosity .... Who's going to pay the bills ?? My head still can't wrap around it on how the west could finance the whole bussiness without serious dent in their day to day economy ...

We all are. Do you know that my country alone (Canada) spent nearly $500 Billion on Covid-19? That's more than twice what the entire West has spent on aiding Ukraine so far. When you look at the way Federal debt works vs personal debt, the 35+ countries supporting Ukraine (including Ukraine themselves) could split a $1 Trillion USD defense cost for Ukraine proportionately and it wouldn't change our lives at all.

That's the reality! It's all about the political will to make it happen!

 

[chibiyabi]

Russian goal to wholly annex Ukraine is no longer a realistic option. That means, if I'm Putin, the next best thing to do is gearing for a perpetual war, which means the Ukraine state would still exist, but due to war factor its chance to develop and operate normally will be impossible to do, Russia might be under sanction and its economic growth crippled, but its hard to see Ukraine having any economic growth, or outside countries willing to invest in the country which is in an active war. Overtime this will hurt them the same way sanctions hurt Russia.

That means, from Russian perspective, they no longer need to produce weapon to win land, they only need to produce weapons that is continuously available for a forever war. In the goal to exhaust the targeted country. That + relying on captured weapons (as both party did) to re-equip military units.

I think this is what is inside Putin mind when he opted for a long war. Also this is what Blackjack mention some time ago.

This war will be a contest on who get exhausted first, not between Ukraine and Russia, but between Russia and the Western backers of Ukraine. Russia might have the smaller industrial base, but the West have a history of getting tired in the long run even against non industrial power. (lel)

So we will see who blink first

you forget the reason of why this war started, its all about the oligarch wants UA in their armpit, just like what happen in RU, if this war prolonged, the most loss are the oligarch.

 

[bakhmut_bob]

We all are. Do you know that my country alone (Canada) spent nearly $500 Billion on Covid-19? That's more than twice what the entire West has spent on aiding Ukraine so far. When you look at the way Federal debt works vs personal debt, the 35+ countries supporting Ukraine (including Ukraine themselves) could split a $1 Trillion USD defense cost for Ukraine proportionately and it wouldn't change our lives at all.

That's the reality! It's all about the political will to make it happen!

Incredibly naïve or intentional propaganda. our lives wont change in the short term, but when the debt bomb arrives, its going to be bad. the stupidity of the western voting base has allowed the government to run rampant not only with our money, but the money of future generations. Most people's standard of living will decrease significantly. And the people it will hit the most will not be happy. If you think whats going on in France right now is bad, be sure to have your TV on (if they are allowed to televise it) when the dollar Armageddon hits the US. People who have been used to the government taking care of them will not be satisfied with what the government will be offering. The political will you speak of is the will of these politicians to line their own pockets and burn a hole in ours. This war is the result of greedy politicians wanting even more money, even if it risked the lives of millions of innocent people.

 

[Gary]

you forget the reason of why this war started, its all about the oligarch wants UA in their armpit, just like what happen in RU, if this war prolonged, the most loss are the oligarch.

The oligarchs doesn't want UA lel, this is Putin and his own private venture. Not even close circle of Putin knows he's about to invade until the day before the actual invasion.

 

[chibiyabi]

The oligarchs doesn't want UA lel, this is Putin and his own private venture. Not even close circle of Putin knows he's about to invade until the day before the actual invasion.

you forgot this name Viktor Medvedchuk

 

[Gary]

you forgot this name Viktor Medvedchuk

Don't know what Viktor Medvedchuk has to do with this, but it seems the plan to invade is poorly consulted and no one actually wants it to happen

On this occasion, the phone call made Lavrov one of the very few people who had any knowledge of the plan ahead of time. The Kremlin’s senior leadership all found out about the invasion only when they saw Putin declare a “special military operation” on television that morning.​

​

Later that day, several dozen oligarchs gathered at the Kremlin for a meeting arranged only the day before, aware that the invasion would trigger western sanctions that could destroy their empires. “Everyone was completely losing it,” says a person who attended the event. While they waited, one of the oligarchs spied Lavrov exiting another meeting and pressed him for an explanation about why Putin had decided to invade. Lavrov had no answer: the officials he was there to see in the Kremlin had known less about it than he did.​

​

https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49​

​

Now Putin is doubling down on everything to keep the war continuing ad invinitum.

 

[chibiyabi]

Don't know what Viktor Medvedchuk has to do with this, but it seems the plan to invade is poorly consulted and no one actually wants it to happen

On this occasion, the phone call made Lavrov one of the very few people who had any knowledge of the plan ahead of time. The Kremlin’s senior leadership all found out about the invasion only when they saw Putin declare a “special military operation” on television that morning.​

​

Later that day, several dozen oligarchs gathered at the Kremlin for a meeting arranged only the day before, aware that the invasion would trigger western sanctions that could destroy their empires. “Everyone was completely losing it,” says a person who attended the event. While they waited, one of the oligarchs spied Lavrov exiting another meeting and pressed him for an explanation about why Putin had decided to invade. Lavrov had no answer: the officials he was there to see in the Kremlin had known less about it than he did.​

​

https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49​

​

Now Putin is doubling down on everything to keep the war continuing ad invinitum.

so where putin got the consultations if not from his kremlin senior officer, remember, in putin era oligarch grow like mushrooms in rainy season..

 

[Gary]

Just a casual reminder that Britain , unlike Russia is not labelled a terrorist state by our resident internet hero. And their leaders are not on the ICC arrest warrant + their countrymen speak on the internet as if they're some sort a country on a humanitarian mission.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675574898000003072

On other news, Russian air power unlike its army cousins are able to continuously grow as their production isn't very far away from their loss rate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675819913196503041

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675820577922387968