Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Politico is reporting an extremely important development. The Biden administration is "considering" sending JASSM cruise missiles to Ukraine to be used by Ukraine's newly acquired F-16s.

Why is this an important development? Two reasons.

1. This reporting means that JASSMs WILL be delivered. There has not been a single article of weaponry that the U.S. media hasn't sent to Ukraine, after first leaking to the public through the media that they were "considering" sending it. This is what they did with Bradleys, Strykers, HIMARS, F-16s, Patriots, ATACMS, etc. JASSMs are are inbound. It's simply a matter of time.

2. JASSMs are a HUGE problem for Russia. Their air defense systems have had a hard time dealing with British and French Stormshadow cruise missiles and JASSM performs similarly. The difference is that USA has the ability to provide MANY more JASSMs to Ukraine, to give the Ukrainians another long range option to compliment ATACMS. USA has produced more than 2000 standard range JASSM cruise missiles with a range of 370'ish kms. They are now producing JASSM-ER models with a range of up to 1000 kms and are in the process of producing the new JASSM-XR to further increase the weapons range. USA currently builds approximately 550 JASSMs per year and is increasing production to approximately 750 units per year, with a goal of producing more than 10,000 JASSMs.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/biden-missiles-ukraine-russia-00174147

JASSM / JASSM ER | Missile Threat

The JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) is a conventional, stealthy, air-launched ground attack cruise missile designed for the U.S. Air Force and international partners. An extended range version, AGM-158B JASSM-ER, was developed alongside the standard variant, and went into service...

missilethreat.csis.org

 

[Relic]

Waiting for video confirmation to confirm, but Russian Telegram is buzzing about another large Rusian convoy being ambushed and destroyed by a HIMARS strike. Apparently this time the ambush took place near Korenevo as Russian tried to bring in reinforcements.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824328611643486280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824333849578422641

 

[Relic]

Another Russian column tried to advance near Kurakhovo and Ukraine's 79th Brigade was waiting for them. Russia attacked with 3 MBTs and 23 armored vehicles of multiple varieties...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824697324511080759

 

[Relic]

Right now is a critical time to ensure that support for Ukraine continues. Mobilization is in full swing and Ukrainians continue to train in large numbers, both I'm Ukraine and across Europe. That said, this remains a high attrition war for both sides and Ukraine is going to require fresh donations of armor and artillery in order to reconstitute some of it's battered battalions / brigades, while continuing to train new ones.

With Ukraine trying to expand control in the Kursk region and create defensive positions, attrition will naturally be much higher than it has been. That's a universal truth in peer-to-peer war. Russia suffers significant casualties on the offensive and so to does Ukraine.

The following is armor and artillery that has been pledged to Ukraine, but is scheduled to arrive later this year and into 2025...

MBTs
19 Leopard 2A4
14 Leopard 2A4
25 T-72EA
77 Leopard 1A5

Total: 135

IFVs
20 Marder 1A3
35 CV9035NL
80 BMP-2
?? BMP-1A1

Total: 135+

Artillery
9 DITA 155mm
72 CAESAR 155mm
16 Zuzana 2 155mm
18 2S22 Bohdana 2 155mm
36 RCH-155 155mm
18 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
Total: 169

The above is a good start, and will help keep Ukraine in the war over the next 4-6 months, but much more will have to be pledged in order for Ukraine to be able to continue to exhaust Russia's Soviet stockpile and damage the Russian army to the point that it's offensive capability is deeply degraded. I believe that the following must be pledged and delivered by the summer of 2025.

MBTs
62 M1A1 Abrams
62 Leopard 2
100 Leopard 1A5
100 T-64
100 T-72

Total: 424

IFVs / AFVs
200 Bradley M2-ODS
100 Stryker
150 BMP-1/2
50 Marder 1A3
50 CV9035/40
50 Rosomak
50 AMX-10RC

Total: 650

Artillery
100 M198 155mm
36 M777 155mm
54 M109 155mm
36 RCH-155 155mm
36 Panzerhaubitze 2000
36 Krab 155mm
72 CAESAR 155mm
72 2S22 Bohdana 2 155mm
8 Archer 155mm

Total: 450

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the Russian Zemledeliye mining machine in action in the Kursk region of Russia. The Zemledeliye remote mining machine fires 122 mm rockets, according to some sources 140 mm, performing remote mining in the border areas of the Sumy region of Ukraine. The ammunition currently includes two rockets with mines of different types, which is enough to solve most typical tasks. The Zemledeliye remote mining engineering system machine began to be used in Ukraine since 2022. Technical information about the Zemledeliye mining machine is in the link to the video in the comments to the video.

 

[Soldier30]

The new FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky" controlled via fiber optic cable has begun to be used by the Russian army in the Kursk region. The Russian FPV drone "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky" was developed by the Novgorod Scientific and Production Center "Ushkuynik", the manufacturer did not provide technical details and photos of the drone.
As reported, the drone was used in the Kursk region to attack Ukrainian armored vehicles about seven times. Control of the drone "Vandal" via fiber optic cable provides complete invulnerability from electronic warfare equipment, and you can also see excellent image quality. The disadvantages of this method of controlling the drone include limitations on range and flight routes and a higher price for the drone.

 

[Woland]

Germany military aid update, delivered in the past 3 weeks:

• 2 IRIS-T SLS launchers
• 10 Sonobot 5 USVs
• 26 Vector UAVs
• 1 Bergepanzer 2 ARV
• 6 High Mobility Engineer Excavators (armoured)
• 50 CR 308 rifles
• 10 HLR 338 precision rifles
• 700 MK 556 assault rifles
• 14,000 155mm shells
• material for explosive ordnance disposal
• 55,000 First aid kits

Source: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

 

[Afif]

Looks like Russians blew out another patriot battery.

 

[UkroTurk]

Ukraine may join NATO even with occupied territories, says Czech President

He recalled the experience of Germany.



I don't think that full restoration of control over the entire territory is a prerequisite. If there is demarcation, even of some administrative border, then we can accept it as temporary and accept Ukraine in the territory that it will control at that time, into NATO," he said in an interview with Novinky.

Pavel: Do NATO by mohla vstoupit i okupovaná Ukrajina - Novinky

Vstup Ukrajiny do NATO by neměl být podmíněn tím, aby plně kontrolovala celé své území, řekl v rozhovoru pro Novinky a Právo prezident Petr Pavel. Očekává, že v příštích letech by mohla Ukrajina jednat s Ruskem o míru. Dohoda by mohla znamenat, že by Rusko dlouhodobě okupovalo část jejího území...

www.novinky.cz

Pavel recalled that Germany was accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance in 1955, although part of the country was occupied by the Soviet Union. "Therefore, I think there is a solution, both technically and legally, to allow Ukraine to join NATO without entering into conflict with the Russian Federation," the president added.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_185912.htm

 

[Lool]

Ukraine may join NATO even with occupied territories, says Czech President

He recalled the experience of Germany.



I don't think that full restoration of control over the entire territory is a prerequisite. If there is demarcation, even of some administrative border, then we can accept it as temporary and accept Ukraine in the territory that it will control at that time, into NATO," he said in an interview with Novinky.

Pavel: Do NATO by mohla vstoupit i okupovaná Ukrajina - Novinky

Vstup Ukrajiny do NATO by neměl být podmíněn tím, aby plně kontrolovala celé své území, řekl v rozhovoru pro Novinky a Právo prezident Petr Pavel. Očekává, že v příštích letech by mohla Ukrajina jednat s Ruskem o míru. Dohoda by mohla znamenat, že by Rusko dlouhodobě okupovalo část jejího území...

www.novinky.cz

Pavel recalled that Germany was accepted into the North Atlantic Alliance in 1955, although part of the country was occupied by the Soviet Union. "Therefore, I think there is a solution, both technically and legally, to allow Ukraine to join NATO without entering into conflict with the Russian Federation," the president added.

Honestly, the sole belief that Ukraine would even enter NATO even in a 1000 years is hilarious

 

[Relic]

Germany announced the delivery if new military aid to Ukraine. The package consists of the following...

- 1 IRIS-T SLS air defense system
- 14,000 155mm artillery shells
- 10 unmanned surface vessels
- 26 Vector reconnaissance drones
- Explosive ordnance
- 6 High mobility engineers excavators
- 1 Bergepanzer engineering vehicle
- 700 MK 556 assault rifles
- 10 HLR-338 sniper rifles
- 50 CR 308 rifles
- 55,000 first aid kits

Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government

War in Ukraine: This list provides an overview of Germany’s lethal and non-lethal military support for Ukraine.

www.bundesregierung.de

Denmark announced a new $115 million military aid package for Ukraine. The funding will be used to purchase weapons directly from Ukraine's domestic arms industry. This is important because it has been noted that Ukraine's own industry has substantially more capacity to produce weapons than Ukraine can fund with its own budget.

Countries such as Denmark , Canada , Portugal and the Baltics, that have largely run out of many of the weapons systems that they have been sending to Ukraine, can instead inject those funds directly into Ukraine's own production capacity.

Denmark announces $115 million military aid package, says supplied equipment can be used in Kursk Oblast

The package is aimed at meeting both Ukraine’s short-term and long-term defense needs. The funds will be used to purchase new military equipment from the Ukrainian defense industry and the country’s i...

www.yahoo.com

 

[contricusc]

Honestly, the sole belief that Ukraine would even enter NATO even in a 1000 years is hilarious

It is almost a certainty that Ukraine will join NATO in the future. The amount of modern weapons and training invested in the Ukrainian military will not be wasted. After the war is over, Ukraine will have the most experienced army in Europe, and one of the most modern in terms of equipment, so it would be crazy to let them out of NATO.

 

[Lool]

It is almost a certainty that Ukraine will join NATO in the future. The amount of modern weapons and training invested in the Ukrainian military will not be wasted. After the war is over, Ukraine will have the most experienced army in Europe, and one of the most modern in terms of equipment, so it would be crazy to let them out of NATO.

"After the war is over"?
Do you really think that Ukraine would be able to win this war? Do you really believe that Ukraine (if it exists after the war) would even have the galls to fight in any other war after losing a decent chunk of its population?

Finally, "the amount of modern weapons and training invested in Ukraine wont be wasted" is an absolutely true statement. However, you failed to realise that it has already done its purpose which is inflicting serious damage to Russia without having to lose even 1 NATO soldier to the point that they wont be able to heavily intervene in any future events worldwide since the Russians would be exhausted from the Ukrainian war and wont have that much active personnel

The West used Ukraine for the preparation of other global events that would turn out in a catastrophic manner if Russia or China were to intervene; thus, the main goal of the Ukrainian war has already been completed and the West/USA is just prolonging it for the bonus gains, as some may say

IMO, the greatest losers in this war are the Ukrainian people themselves. Not the Russians and not the Europeans but the Ukrainians themselves

 

[Spitfire9]

"After the war is over"?
Do you really think that Ukraine would be able to win this war? Do you really believe that Ukraine (if it exists after the war) would even have the galls to fight in any other war after losing a decent chunk of its population?

Finally, "the amount of modern weapons and training invested in Ukraine wont be wasted" is an absolutely true statement. However, you failed to realise that it has already done its purpose which is inflicting serious damage to Russia without having to lose even 1 NATO soldier to the point that they wont be able to heavily intervene in any future events worldwide since the Russians would be exhausted from the Ukrainian war and wont have that much active personnel

The West used Ukraine for the preparation of other global events that would turn out in a catastrophic manner if Russia or China were to intervene; thus, the main goal of the Ukrainian war has already been completed and the West/USA is just prolonging it for the bonus gains, as some may say

IMO, the greatest losers in this war are the Ukrainian people themselves. Not the Russians and not the Europeans but the Ukrainians themselves

One thing that is clear to me is that the US has little interest in providing Ukraine with the unfettered means to win the conflict. It appears to see the Ukraine war as a proxy contest between itself and Russia, one aimed to drain Russia militarily and financially. Provided Russia does not defeat Ukraine or vice versa, Russia will continue to suffer more and more damage. Ukraine, too, but I think that the interests of Ukraine and its people are of minimal importance to the US.

 

[contricusc]

"After the war is over"?
Do you really think that Ukraine would be able to win this war? Do you really believe that Ukraine (if it exists after the war) would even have the galls to fight in any other war after losing a decent chunk of its population?

Yes, my base case scenario is that Ukraine will win in the end. Ukraine’s army is getting better equipment than before, while the European MIC is ramping up production capability. Russia is suffering tremendous equipment losses, and it won’t be long before they will run out of Soviet gear to refurbish. This is when things will start to get really ugly for the Russians.

Finally, "the amount of modern weapons and training invested in Ukraine wont be wasted" is an absolutely true statement. However, you failed to realise that it has already done its purpose which is inflicting serious damage to Russia without having to lose even 1 NATO soldier to the point that they wont be able to heavily intervene in any future events worldwide since the Russians would be exhausted from the Ukrainian war and wont have that much active personnel

I don’t “fail to realize“ that the equipment was already put to good use against Russia, but my assumption is that there will be lots of equipment left in Ukraine’s hands at the end of the war, when Russia is forced to retreat. Ukraine will have a very strong, experienced and advanced military at the end of the conflict, and they will be very easy to integrate in NATO, to further strengthen the Eastern side.

The West used Ukraine for the preparation of other global events that would turn out in a catastrophic manner if Russia or China were to intervene; thus, the main goal of the Ukrainian war has already been completed and the West/USA is just prolonging it for the bonus gains, as some may say

Let’s get things straight here. Russia invaded Ukraine, and the West saw an opportunity to weaken Russia by helping Ukraine. The “main goal” of the Ukraine war was for Russia to change the regime in Kyiv (because Russia started the war), and they failed in their goal. As for the West, there are diverging goals at play. The US just wants to prolong the war and weaken Russia as much as possible, while the EU wants to defeat Russia, liberate Ukraine and get it in the EU and NATO in the future.

IMO, the greatest losers in this war are the Ukrainian people themselves. Not the Russians and not the Europeans but the Ukrainians themselves

The greatest losers in wars are always the people involved. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, they didn’t have much choice. The Russians chose to start the war, and the Ukrainians had to choose between being occupied and subjugated by a tyrant, or fighting to remain free. They made the hard but right choice.

 

[contricusc]

One thing that is clear to me is that the US has little interest in providing Ukraine with the unfettered means to win the conflict. It appears to see the Ukraine war as a proxy contest between itself and Russia, one aimed to drain Russia militarily and financially. Provided Russia does not defeat Ukraine or vice versa, Russia will continue to suffer more and more damage. Ukraine, too, but I think that the interests of Ukraine and its people are of minimal importance to the US.

Unfortunatelly you are completely right. Hopefully the EU and some of the more involved European nations will have enough resources and determination to help Ukraine win the war in the end. Europe is slowly ramping up weapons manufacturing, while at the same time Russia is slowly exhausting its Soviet era stockpile of equipment that can be easily refurbished. Once they run out of old tanks and IFVs to repair and send to the front, they will have a very big problem.

 

[MaciekRS]

russians are trying to build ponton bridges, no luck

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1825813691159253218

 

[SilverMachine]

Yes, my base case scenario is that Ukraine will win in the end.

Out of curiosity, and I'm not mocking you for the (what I consider incredibly naive) assumption/operating thought, but why is this?

Even just going by the numbers, Russia vastly outnumbers them: Ukraine's just opened a new front of all things, dispersed their armies out further, they're incapable of really pushing Russia back as we've seen. The last offensive was their do-or-die, it's not going to happen now. This Kursk thing has a real chance of backfiring, too, as plenty of people have mentioned - they've deployed a whole lot of irreplaceable crack troops and equipment in a venture that could likely see them cut off, surrounded, and destroyed, and on top of that it hasn't stopped Russia marching further toward taking Pokrovsk.

Top-notch western military equipment is great and all, but you ultimately still need people to use it. For all of Russia's losses, they can be replaced, whereas Ukraine's already in dire straits in terms of filling out the ranks.

Do I think this will ultimately come to some negotiated political outcome with Russia (somewhat) going home? Absolutely. That's not going to be a "win" for Ukraine - a third of Ukraine will now be Russian territory, and they'll have lost more-or-less an entire generation of men.

A "lose" situation for Russia is still leaving Ukraine with more territory than they had initially, at the cost of not even a full mobilization of troops. Yes, Russia has a bloody nose from all of this, no question. But there's zero possibility here of a situation in which Zelenskyy "wins" this conflict. Man for man pound for pound, they've lost far more than Russia has, and they're not forcing Putin's troops home en-masse in any meaningful way.

 

[FiReFTW]

Out of curiosity, and I'm not mocking you for the (what I consider incredibly naive) assumption/operating thought, but why is this?

Even just going by the numbers, Russia vastly outnumbers them: Ukraine's just opened a new front of all things, dispersed their armies out further, they're incapable of really pushing Russia back as we've seen. The last offensive was their do-or-die, it's not going to happen now. This Kursk thing has a real chance of backfiring, too, as plenty of people have mentioned - they've deployed a whole lot of irreplaceable crack troops and equipment in a venture that could likely see them cut off, surrounded, and destroyed, and on top of that it hasn't stopped Russia marching further toward taking Pokrovsk.

Top-notch western military equipment is great and all, but you ultimately still need people to use it. For all of Russia's losses, they can be replaced, whereas Ukraine's already in dire straits in terms of filling out the ranks.

Do I think this will ultimately come to some negotiated political outcome with Russia (somewhat) going home? Absolutely. That's not going to be a "win" for Ukraine - a third of Ukraine will now be Russian territory, and they'll have lost more-or-less an entire generation of men.

A "lose" situation for Russia is still leaving Ukraine with more territory than they had initially, at the cost of not even a full mobilization of troops. Yes, Russia has a bloody nose from all of this, no question. But there's zero possibility here of a situation in which Zelenskyy "wins" this conflict. Man for man pound for pound, they've lost far more than Russia has, and they're not forcing Putin's troops home en-masse in any meaningful way.

Most people here are ignorant and can't comprehend what you just wrote, even tho its the truth, so you are just wasting your time.

 

[Spitfire9]

Out of curiosity, and I'm not mocking you for the (what I consider incredibly naive) assumption/operating thought, but why is this?

Even just going by the numbers, Russia vastly outnumbers them: Ukraine's just opened a new front of all things, dispersed their armies out further, they're incapable of really pushing Russia back as we've seen. The last offensive was their do-or-die, it's not going to happen now. This Kursk thing has a real chance of backfiring, too, as plenty of people have mentioned - they've deployed a whole lot of irreplaceable crack troops and equipment in a venture that could likely see them cut off, surrounded, and destroyed, and on top of that it hasn't stopped Russia marching further toward taking Pokrovsk.

Top-notch western military equipment is great and all, but you ultimately still need people to use it. For all of Russia's losses, they can be replaced, whereas Ukraine's already in dire straits in terms of filling out the ranks.

Do I think this will ultimately come to some negotiated political outcome with Russia (somewhat) going home? Absolutely. That's not going to be a "win" for Ukraine - a third of Ukraine will now be Russian territory, and they'll have lost more-or-less an entire generation of men.

A "lose" situation for Russia is still leaving Ukraine with more territory than they had initially, at the cost of not even a full mobilization of troops. Yes, Russia has a bloody nose from all of this, no question. But there's zero possibility here of a situation in which Zelenskyy "wins" this conflict. Man for man pound for pound, they've lost far more than Russia has, and they're not forcing Putin's troops home en-masse in any meaningful way.

I think that what happens in the next few months depends on
- continuing American support by the next administration (low probability IMO)
- continuing EU, UK, Norway support (high probability IMO)
- whether rules of engagement allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to attack Russia
- whether Russia starts running low on fighting vehicles, missiles
- how much US and Europe ramp up weapons and munitions production

On paper Russia should lose this war (Russian GDP about $2 trillion, Ukraine allies' GDP about $40 trillion). The longer the war lasts, the more western weapons production should rise compared to Russian weapons production.