Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Germany has announced that they will deliver the following additional components of military aid to Ukraine by the end of 2024.

2x IRIS-T SLM Air Defense Batteries
2x IRIS-T SLS Air Defense Batteries
10x Gepard Air Defense Systems
30x Leopard 1A5 MBTs
12x Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers
4x Zuzana 2 howitzers
400x MRAPS
Logistics vehicles
155mm artillery shells
35mm ammunition for Gepards
Small arms
Small arms ammunition
1x Field hospital

Drones, air defense, and artillery systems: Germany announces aid to Ukraine by the end of the year

Germany has announced military aid for Ukraine. It includes weapons that will be delivered by the end of 2024

mil.in.ua

 

[Relic]

Politico is reporting an extremely important development. The Biden administration is "considering" sending JASSM cruise missiles to Ukraine to be used by Ukraine's newly acquired F-16s.

Why is this an important development? Two reasons.

1. This reporting means that JASSMs WILL be delivered. There has not been a single article of weaponry that the U.S. media hasn't sent to Ukraine, after first leaking to the public through the media that they were "considering" sending it. This is what they did with Bradleys, Strykers, HIMARS, F-16s, Patriots, ATACMS, etc. JASSMs are are inbound. It's simply a matter of time.

2. JASSMs are a HUGE problem for Russia. Their air defense systems have had a hard time dealing with British and French Stormshadow cruise missiles and JASSM performs similarly. The difference is that USA has the ability to provide MANY more JASSMs to Ukraine, to give the Ukrainians another long range option to compliment ATACMS. USA has produced more than 2000 standard range JASSM cruise missiles with a range of 370'ish kms. They are now producing JASSM-ER models with a range of up to 1000 kms and are in the process of producing the new JASSM-XR to further increase the weapons range. USA currently builds approximately 550 JASSMs per year and is increasing production to approximately 750 units per year, with a goal of producing more than 10,000 JASSMs.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/biden-missiles-ukraine-russia-00174147

JASSM / JASSM ER | Missile Threat

The JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) is a conventional, stealthy, air-launched ground attack cruise missile designed for the U.S. Air Force and international partners. An extended range version, AGM-158B JASSM-ER, was developed alongside the standard variant, and went into service...

missilethreat.csis.org

 

[Relic]

Waiting for video confirmation to confirm, but Russian Telegram is buzzing about another large Rusian convoy being ambushed and destroyed by a HIMARS strike. Apparently this time the ambush took place near Korenevo as Russian tried to bring in reinforcements.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824328611643486280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824333849578422641

 

[Relic]

Another Russian column tried to advance near Kurakhovo and Ukraine's 79th Brigade was waiting for them. Russia attacked with 3 MBTs and 23 armored vehicles of multiple varieties...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824697324511080759

 

[Relic]

Right now is a critical time to ensure that support for Ukraine continues. Mobilization is in full swing and Ukrainians continue to train in large numbers, both I'm Ukraine and across Europe. That said, this remains a high attrition war for both sides and Ukraine is going to require fresh donations of armor and artillery in order to reconstitute some of it's battered battalions / brigades, while continuing to train new ones.

With Ukraine trying to expand control in the Kursk region and create defensive positions, attrition will naturally be much higher than it has been. That's a universal truth in peer-to-peer war. Russia suffers significant casualties on the offensive and so to does Ukraine.

The following is armor and artillery that has been pledged to Ukraine, but is scheduled to arrive later this year and into 2025...

MBTs
19 Leopard 2A4
14 Leopard 2A4
25 T-72EA
77 Leopard 1A5

Total: 135

IFVs
20 Marder 1A3
35 CV9035NL
80 BMP-2
?? BMP-1A1

Total: 135+

Artillery
9 DITA 155mm
72 CAESAR 155mm
16 Zuzana 2 155mm
18 2S22 Bohdana 2 155mm
36 RCH-155 155mm
18 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
Total: 169

The above is a good start, and will help keep Ukraine in the war over the next 4-6 months, but much more will have to be pledged in order for Ukraine to be able to continue to exhaust Russia's Soviet stockpile and damage the Russian army to the point that it's offensive capability is deeply degraded. I believe that the following must be pledged and delivered by the summer of 2025.

MBTs
62 M1A1 Abrams
62 Leopard 2
100 Leopard 1A5
100 T-64
100 T-72

Total: 424

IFVs / AFVs
200 Bradley M2-ODS
100 Stryker
150 BMP-1/2
50 Marder 1A3
50 CV9035/40
50 Rosomak
50 AMX-10RC

Total: 650

Artillery
100 M198 155mm
36 M777 155mm
54 M109 155mm
36 RCH-155 155mm
36 Panzerhaubitze 2000
36 Krab 155mm
72 CAESAR 155mm
72 2S22 Bohdana 2 155mm
8 Archer 155mm

Total: 450