Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Woland]

I have to admit, I'm also not particularly confident about a Ukrainian victory. You can talk about Kursk all you like but it doesn't change the fact that Russia started making pretty major gains in Ukraine once this operation got underway which leads me to suspect that Ukraine diverted a substantial amount of its forces that were defending the country for the invasion of Russia and no longer has enough to hold back the Russian advance.

People also need to remember that Russians generally don't give a crap about their territory. The reason they like having such a big amount of land despite not enough people to populate it and most of it being fairly underdeveloped is because it fits perfectly with the Russian strategy of defense in depth. To put it another way for the US to lose even one state to enemy action, even one as worthless as, say, Oregon would be a major catastrophe. But for Russia Kursk is mostly nothing. It could be a problem if Ukraine pushes deep enough south to flank the Russian forces occupying Ukraine and prevent them from being resupplied but it doesn't seem thus far like they have enough gas to make it happen.

Basically, Ukraine's strategy in Russia has multiple options:

1) Capture territory in the hopes of a stronger negotiating hand against Russia. Not really working all that well and Russia isn't falling for it.

2) Pivot down south in order to cut off Russian reinforcements. Again Russia seems to have anticipated that and this area is their main focus.

3) Attempt to sabotage enough of Russia's mission-critical infrastructure in order to hinder their war effort but as I said before, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank to pull that off.

And to make it worse it doesn't look like even the Ukrainians themselves know what their actual objectives in Russia are. If I had to hazard a guess the initial idea was to prove to the Western powers, particularly the US, that Ukraine can still put up a fight and Russia is cowardly enough that there is no risk of escalation if NATO were to get involved a bit more seriously and provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine but that didn't work - so now Ukraine is left wondering what now?

I want Ukraine to win from both a moral and self-interested perspective. I just don't see how anymore and I really hope the rest of the ex-USSR nations are paying attention and preparing themselves for the fallout.

I've written here previously what I think the reasons for the Kursk invasion are. Optics are incredibly important for ensuring support continues or increases. Polls show that American voters want Ukraine to win and view Russia very negatively. You can see the impact Kursk had below:

The US's aid to Ukraine is primarily divided into two components:
PDA - Presidential Drawdown Authority. Weaponry from existing American stocks, delivered very quickly
USAI - Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Orders for production from US defense industry, can take years to manufacture and arrive

After the resumption of US aid to Ukraine in April, only a significant portion of USAI was spent:
PDA: $2.9 billion
USAI: $9.7 billion

Remaining unspent:
PDA: $8.9 billion
USAI: $4.1 billion

We can also think of these numbers a bit differently, by amount of PDA delivered each year since the start of the war:
2022: $12.8 b
2023: $13 b
2024: $2.9 b

Essentially in 2024 Ukraine has received very little military aid from the US, with the vast majority of what was paid for being orders with US manufacturers that will take 2+ years to arrive. A substantial increase in military aid is worth more than Pokrovsk.

Of lesser importance but somewhat indicative of mood is the issue of lifting restrictions on the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows. The Biden administration is risk-averse and DC in general moves very slowly, but pressure by members of Congress on the Biden administration to lift restrictions has increased substantially. Finally, the Kursk invasion (and voters' perception) will certainly impact either Harris or Trump (in different ways).

 

[Anastasius]

I've written here previously what I think the reasons for the Kursk invasion are. Optics are incredibly important for ensuring support continues or increases. Polls show that American voters want Ukraine to win and view Russia very negatively. You can see the impact Kursk had below:

View attachment 70250

The US's aid to Ukraine is primarily divided into two components:
PDA - Presidential Drawdown Authority. Weaponry from existing American stocks, delivered very quickly
USAI - Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Orders for production from US defense industry, can take years to manufacture and arrive

After the resumption of US aid to Ukraine in April, only a significant portion of USAI was spent:
PDA: $2.9 billion
USAI: $9.7 billion

Remaining unspent:
PDA: $8.9 billion
USAI: $4.1 billion

We can also think of these numbers a bit differently, by amount of PDA delivered each year since the start of the war:
2022: $12.8 b
2023: $13 b
2024: $2.9 b

Essentially in 2024 Ukraine has received very little military aid from the US, with the vast majority of what was paid for being orders with US manufacturers that will take 2+ years to arrive. A substantial increase in military aid is worth more than Pokrovsk.

Of lesser importance but somewhat indicative of mood is the issue of lifting restrictions on the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows. The Biden administration is risk-averse and DC in general moves very slowly, but pressure by members of Congress on the Biden administration to lift restrictions has increased substantially. Finally, the Kursk invasion (and voters' perception) will certainly impact either Harris or Trump (in different ways).

I made another comment after that one pointing out that Ukraine DOES seem to have found Russia's weak point. It has nothing to do with Western arms deliveries and restrictions (or lack thereof), relying on those to change the course of conflict is as dumb as the Germans waxing lyrical about wunderwaffes that will turn back the Allied offensive any day now. What Ukraine is doing now is making a gradual switch to asymmetrical warfare instead of trying to brute-force Russia in a head-to-head contest. I suspect the loss of territory on the Ukrainian front is part of that strategy, a tactical withdrawal to bait Russian forces into overstretching themselves and committing the same critical error that they made at the start of the war.

 

[SilverMachine]

The Russians have imposed Communism on my county, and for this alone I wish for their total destruction as a country.

And there it is.

As the other guy said, you're not really worth listening to on the topic, now that this is out there. Look, it's understandable - plenty of people in the region hate Russia, it's deserved in a lot of ways and it is what it is.

But when you're talking (seriously, apparently not just being facetious & trolling) about the desirable outcome here is the Russian Federation being either forcibly broken up into little powerless vassal states by NATO, or the same thing through internal civil war strife, like...I don't know what to tell you man. Every world leader opposing Russia & supporting Ukraine in this thing is going to disagree with that notion, because it's completely batshit.

But I suspect you know this.

 

[Agha Sher]

Novohrodivka, a town of 14.000 inhabitants, has been captured by Russia in 3/4 days. The towns infrastructure is completely intact and the Ukrainians were only able to offer sporadic resistance. With the capture of this important town, Russia has opened the road to Pokrovsk.

This is very concerning from Ukraine's pov. The Pokrovsk front is falling apart at a increasingly faster pace.

 

[TheInsider]

Novohrodivka is not that important but Pokrovks is. Pokrovsk is a railroad junction and a logistical hub.


Russian missile attacks get more frequent and they use more missiles and UAVs with greater success rates.

Ukraine needs an airforce. Ukraine also needs long-range missiles like JASSM that can hit missile and UAV factories or component, subsystem suppliers deep inside Russia. Russian production of long-range missiles, UAVs, and glide bombs has to be reduced.

 

[contricusc]

But when you're talking (seriously, apparently not just being facetious & trolling) about the desirable outcome here is the Russian Federation being either forcibly broken up into little powerless vassal states by NATO, or the same thing through internal civil war strife, like...I don't know what to tell you man. Every world leader opposing Russia & supporting Ukraine in this thing is going to disagree with that notion, because it's completely batshit.

The problem with those world leaders you are citing is that they have ulterior motives. They don’t want Russia completely destroyed because they fear that China will remain without a counterbalance in Asia. They already see Russia as being weak, and their main concern is now China.

Some US politicians, like Vivek Ramaswamy, have said it clearly that the US should offer Russia the chance to become its friend if they abandon their friendship with China.

Those politicians do not care about the interests of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. They only care about the interests of the US and maybe other big powers like France or the UK. For them, Russia is not a threat. But if Russia would collapse, they fear the risk of nuclear weapons getting in the wrong hands, and China becoming too dominant in Asia.

I don’t care about such concerns, because what I care for is the safety of Eastern Europe, and a collapsed Russia would be the perfect outcome in this case.

There is nothing batshit crazy about wishing safety for your region. I’d say it is a lot more crazy that those world leaders care more about their geopolitical games than about peace.

Under those world leaders actions we ended up with the first big land war in Europe since WW2. This is how well they understand Russia and geopolitics. They failed, so it is crazy to believe that they know what they are doing, or that they have good intentions. Those leaders made lots of wrong decisions, and continue to do so. If they were good leaders, they would have managed to secure peace, but they didn’t, so I discard their opinions as being the ones of fools or of people with bad intentions.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-51" striking a Ukrainian T-64BV tank. The video was filmed on August 11 in the village of Cherkasskoye Porechny, Kursk region of Russia. The video is unique in that the drone strike was filmed by the Ukrainian and Russian armies simultaneously. At first glance, the Ukrainian T-64BV tank withstood the drone strike, apparently due to the tank's net protection, but after moving forward, it stopped and a fire started inside. It is unknown whether the crew managed to leave the tank, but as a result of the fire and detonation of ammunition, the tank was completely destroyed.

 

[Trakya_forever]

There will be no wimner of this war except for the planners. Both sides have already lost.

 

[Samba]

There will be no wimner of this war except for the planners. Both sides have already lost.

Today's war should be won in a week or month time. Otherwise, it is lost, whether you win or not.

 

[Agha Sher]

Russia has captured 5 villages today as well as entered the city of Solydove on the Pokrovks front. the battle for the 6th village is ongoing.

Additionally, Hrodivka (an important town) has been operationally encircled (Russia already controls 50% of the town).

There is no organised Ukrainian defence in this sector anymore - only sporadic attempts to stop the Russians. Russia has also passed the last defense line the Ukrainians had built - There is no other defense line all the way to the Dneipr river.

If Russia has enough reserved and armor, a armored thrust could endanger all of Donetsk. Situation is exteremely concerning for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828469793445343633

 

[SilverMachine]

The problem with those world leaders you are citing is that they have ulterior motives. They don’t want Russia completely destroyed because they fear that China will remain without a counterbalance in Asia.

They "fear" Russia being completely destroyed because Russia won't be completely destroyed without getting triple-digit amounts of nukes set off the chain first.

Not just Putin. Any Russian leader, even the cuddliest friendliest hypothetical imaginable, flat-out isn't going to let it happen. Get your head right, Russia isn't being "destroyed" in the aftermath of this, nor does any sane person in the let's-support-Ukraine sphere (okay, fair, maybe some of the more extremist/nationalist Ukrainians, but alas) across the globe want that.

Goddamn I'm glad you're just a dude on a forum and don't hold any power in the world, this type of talk is scary stuff, in addition to being completely juvenile.

 

[contricusc]

They "fear" Russia being completely destroyed because Russia won't be completely destroyed without getting triple-digit amounts of nukes set off the chain first.

Your statement sounds juvenile, not my opinions. How many nukes did the Soviet Union set-off when it disintegrated? Exactly the same number that Russia will set-off when it will disintegrate.

The disintegration of Russia into smaller states doesn’t have to come through nuclear war. It is enough for ethnic-dominated regions to rebel against Moscow and for the central government to be stretched to the limit with its military power, making negotiation a better option than fighting the rebels.

The elite in Moscow and St.Petersburg will be willing to make a lot of concessions in order to preserve their power and wealth. They won’t go nuclear for small provinces like Dagestan, Cecenia or Ingushetia, just like they allowed many countries to get independence when the Soviet Union was becoming unsustainable.

Not just Putin. Any Russian leader, even the cuddliest friendliest hypothetical imaginable, flat-out isn't going to let it happen. Get your head right, Russia isn't being "destroyed" in the aftermath of this, nor does any sane person in the let's-support-Ukraine sphere (okay, fair, maybe some of the more extremist/nationalist Ukrainians, but alas) across the globe want that.

If it gets to the point where the economy collapses and the army is unable to sustain the war while at the same time there are ethnic rebellions in many parts of Russia, it won’t be up to the Kremlin leader to “let this happen”.

Nuclear weapons are not a magic tool to resolve a country’s collapse. If a country cannot be kept together by conventional means, it won’t be kept together by nuclear weapons, that’s for sure.

Goddamn I'm glad you're just a dude on a forum and don't hold any power in the world, this type of talk is scary stuff, in addition to being completely juvenile.

With today’s weak leaders, it is no wonder that people are so used to the weak leadership that they can’t even accept there is a better alternative. Western leaders have failed to even combat petty crime in their countries, they are afraid to put criminals in jail and are unable to defend their borders from unarmed people coming in dinghies. Of course such incompetents are afraid of Putin and fold to every bluff he makes.

What I’m talking about shouldn’t be perceived as ”scary stuff”, it should be the actual desire of the West if the leaders had any backbone and were anchored in reality. But what can you expect from people who got their countries flooded by illigal migrants and can’t stop the boats or secure their land borders?

 

[Fatman17]

 

[SilverMachine]

Contricusc, the USSR dissolved from within, under peaceful circumstances.

Surely you grasp the difference to what you're proposing, right? Like, it's coming as bad-faith discussion with you at this point, seems the other guy's probably right about you. NATO has zero desire to curbstomp Russia as a nation-state into broken-up oblivion, as it likewise has zero interest in Russia coming apart at the seams through violent internal strife/upheaval.

Call that weak if you will. Most people call that "we'd like a non-irratiated planet to continue".

At this point I think I'm done with you, though. We'll just have to wait and see how this thing pans out, we'll resume the "did the invincible glorious Ukraine show every military analyst that their weaknesses were purely made up and vanquish the evil Russian orcs?" hypothetical a couple years down the line. Keep on keepin' on, though.

 

[Agha Sher]

Selydove a town of 25K inhabitants (before evacuation) is being reported abandoned by Ukraine after 1 day of fighting. Russian troops are being reported in the town center.

 

[Perun]

Is there a download link for that report

View attachment 70282 View attachment 70283 View attachment 70284 View attachment 70285

 

[Agha Sher]

RU sources: RU forces has entered the town Myrnohrad from the south. Taken the village of Lisivka and preparing to enter the village Vodyane.

Ukr sources: RU forces entered the town of Ukraine south of Myrnohrad and west of Lisivka.

Collapse continues.

 

[TheInsider]

Russians are encircling Pokrovks. Once Pokrokvs falls, Ukraine might be forced to order a big retreat.

RU sources: RU forces has entered the town Myrnohrad from the south. Taken the village of Lisivka and preparing to enter the village Vodyane.

Ukr sources: RU forces entered the town of Ukraine south of Myrnohrad and west of Lisivka.

Collapse continues.

 

[Agha Sher]

First F-16 destroyed. Ukr media announced the death of a F-16 pilot. He was killed while performing a combat mission.

Edit:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828823292167508297

 

[contricusc]

Contricusc, the USSR dissolved from within, under peaceful circumstances.

Surely you grasp the difference to what you're proposing, right? Like, it's coming as bad-faith discussion with you at this point, seems the other guy's probably right about you.

While the circumstances were different, it doesn’t mean the outcome can’t be the same. Think about the rebelion in Cecenia. They sent the military to quell the rebelion. What would have happened if at that time the Russia military was fighting a serious war like the one in Ukraine and didn’t have the resources to fight the Cecen rebels?

Do you think they would have stopped the rebels with nukes? It is more likely that they would have just negotiated with them and allowed for an independent Cecenia, because they would have had no better option if the army was not in a position to intervene.

NATO has zero desire to curbstomp Russia as a nation-state into broken-up oblivion, as it likewise has zero interest in Russia coming apart at the seams through violent internal strife/upheaval.

Unfortunately NATO just wants to weaken Russia, not to desintegrate it. This is why they are not helping Ukraine sufficiently and are not allowing it to strike in Russia using the donated missiles. I just hope that the situation will evolve in a way that Russia’s collapse will become inevitable despite NATO not trying to achieve that.

Call that weak if you will. Most people call that "we'd like a non-irratiated planet to continue".

This thing with nukes and an irradiated planet is just a scary story not anchored in reality. First of all, even if it would come to a few nukes being used in a war, it will be most likely to happen on the frontline with tactical nukes, which don’t cause too much radiation.

As for a “radiated world” because some bigger nukes have been detonated, that’s just another myth. Think about the time when nukes were being developed and tested. There used to be nukes being detonated all the time.

There have been over 500 atmospheric detonations and over 1500 underground ones, yet we don’t live in an irradiated planet and humans did not go extinct. And keep in mind that the Soviets once detonated the Tsar bomb, which was much bigger than any strategic nuke of today, as it was too big to be delivered by any other means than a gravitational drop. And dispite all that, the world didn’t end, it just moved on.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating for the use of nuclear weapons, I’m just pointing out that this scary scenario with the world being ended if a few nukes are used is complete bonkers.

At this point I think I'm done with you, though. We'll just have to wait and see how this thing pans out, we'll resume the "did the invincible glorious Ukraine show every military analyst that their weaknesses were purely made up and vanquish the evil Russian orcs?" hypothetical a couple years down the line. Keep on keepin' on, though.

We shall see what happens in the future. I just hope Ukraine will continue to receive strong support in both weapons and money so they can continue the war and consume Russia. They will soon develop even better long range weapons themselves, and they will be able to inflict even more damage to mainland Russia, so there is hope.