Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

The West is incredibly frustrating, but they're doing exactly what they need to to make this war insanely costly for Russia.

With no apparent regard for what this is costing the Ukrainians - the lives lost, the lives ruined, the architectural treasures obliterated, the homes lost and so on. In my view the purpose of US aid to Ukraine is not to aid Ukraine. It is to harm Russia.

 

[FiReFTW]

With no apparent regard for what this is costing the Ukrainians - the lives lost, the lives ruined, the architectural treasures obliterated, the homes lost and so on. In my view the purpose of US aid to Ukraine is not to aid Ukraine. It is to harm Russia.

This is of course 100% true. But that's nothing new for the US, they never care much about the actual nation they "pretend" to help, they always only have their interests in it, every single time.

 

[Spitfire9]

The insanity is so high that they care more about energy prices than they do about a war in the heart of Europe. They even continue to talk about nonsensical issues like climate change when there is a big hot war in the middle of Europe… How much more delusional these people can be?

I have to disagree with your judgement that climate change is a nonsensical issue. Yes, there is a big, hot war in the middle of Europe (conveniently sized by the US to persist and exhaust Russia at the cost of the Ukrainians). However, the existence of war in Europe does not make additional discussion of a far more destructive threat - a worldwide one - inappropriate or delusional.

 

[Rooxbar]

This is of course 100% true. But that's nothing new for the US, they never care much about the actual nation they "pretend" to help, they always only have their interests in it, every single time.

That's only natural; the bigger portion of any blame which might exist falls on Ukrainian politicians, intelligentsia and public figures who could not (or didn't want to, because of self-interest) read the situation and help the populace adopt the expedient attitudes (helping them avoid ideologically charged attitudes which gave carte blanche to hawks).

Reciprocal escalation of cultural animosity and demonization fueled by the politicians and public figures on both sides and adopted by low-information populace landed them in this mess. The lion share of spurring on of this vicious cycle though falls on Russian maximalist desires when it came to Ukrainian politics and its control. Opposition to this in the Ukrainian intelligentsia and populace shouldn't have led to demonization, but practical maneuvering.

 

[contricusc]

I have to disagree with your judgement that climate change is a nonsensical issue. Yes, there is a big, hot war in the middle of Europe (conveniently sized by the US to persist and exhaust Russia at the cost of the Ukrainians). However, the existence of war in Europe does not make additional discussion of a far more destructive threat - a worldwide one - inappropriate or delusional.

What I’m talking abut is the proximity and the level of danger of each threat. The war is right now and it is far more dangerous. Climate change is just a theoretical threat in the distant future (even if we accept the curent “science” around it). Any discussion about very long term potential threats becomes irrelevant in the face of an imminent current and larger threat. Otherwise, you create the impression that you don’t care or minimize the current threat.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian servicemen inspecting a Ukrainian armored vehicle "Kozak-5". The armored vehicle "Kozak-5" got stuck in a swamp during the retreat of Ukrainian units from the Kursk region of Russia. Ukrainian armored vehicles "Kozak-5" have been produced by the Kiev company NPO "Praktika" since 2016. Ukrainian units damaged the front axle of the armored vehicle and abandoned it, but it remained on the move. Russian units pulled out the armored vehicle "Kozak-5", but after evacuating it to the rear, its gearbox and driveshaft broke. Now the vehicle has been sent for restoration. The armored vehicle "Kozak-5" is built on the chassis of the American SUV Ford F-550. The armored vehicle "Kozak" is the first Ukrainian armored vehicle protected from a mine explosion, it can withstand an explosion of up to 3 kilograms of TNT. The Kozak-5 armored vehicle can carry up to 8 people and reaches speeds of up to 120 km/h.

 

[Relic]

With no apparent regard for what this is costing the Ukrainians - the lives lost, the lives ruined, the architectural treasures obliterated, the homes lost and so on. In my view the purpose of US aid to Ukraine is not to aid Ukraine. It is to harm Russia.

You're not wrong. Such is life in geopolitics. Western aid is specifically geared towards ensuring that Russia leaves this conflict in geopolitical and domestic turmoil, while Ukraine leaves this war intact and closer to the West. Quietly, Western leaders are ok if that means hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives are lost in the service of a greater goal.

It sounds brutal, but that's geopolitics in a nutshell.

 

[blackjack]

It is said that the Russian public is undecided in trump or harris winning.

 

[Rooxbar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1853838042194235420

 

[Spitfire9]

UK MOD update on the conflict.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1853736943214842003

I note that the MOD analysis reports that Russia is succeeding in recruiting but I have read that the premium paid to get men to sign up can be extremely high (up to $40,000 in a country with average salary <$15,000).

It seems to me that a much cheaper solution to maintaining Russian troop levels would be to increase use of North Korean troops. Apart from reducing cost (no recruitment premium needed), each North Korean soldier supplied would avoid reducing the Russian pool of labour by one, at a time when Russian industry is almost certainly suffering its worst ever labour shortage.

 

[Relic]

Interesting times are on their way. Trump is about to win the election. He has promised that he'll end the war in Ukraine. Most people assume that means he's going to immediately cut off Ukraine's support and make a deal with Vladimir Putin. If what people suspect is true, he'll pretty much trade the Donbas and what Russia controls now, coupled with a Ukarainian withdrawal from occupied Russia, in exchange for the end of the war and a promise to Putin that Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO.

Without the United States' leadership in military hardware for Ukraine, the war effort will fall short barring Europe making an extremely unlikely decision to go all in, in support of Ukraine's war effort.

Just keeping it real. I'm obviously a Ukraine supporter but I've always tried to keep it honest regarding the levels of military and macro economic support that Ukraine is getting and how much it needs to continue it's war effort. Barring a significant change of heart from Trump, the $50 Billion usd loan from the G7 might be the last military / economic support that America participates in. An even bigger blow is if the Trump Government bans Ukraine from buying American made weapons with that loan.

Joe Biden now has 2 months to send the final $4 Billion usd in remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority military supplies to Ukraine. I'll be curious to see if that's even an option. That would represent a staggering rate of package deliveries that I don't see taking place, which means that at least some of that money most likely remains on the table.

Again, very interesting times. Unless Europe steps up enormously (which doesn't look likely) I can see a reasonable end to the war by no later than next summer, with Ukraine continuing to exist, with some Western defense guarantees, but with Russia annexing approximately the 20% of Ukraine they've taken and Ukraine withdrawing all of their troops from Russian territory.

 

[blackjack]

Well trump won, good luck zelensky, he called you a salesman before and doesn't like the money being spent on you. Pray the orange man doesn't fuck you over these coming two months.

Pray that he gets assassinated these coming 2 months, or beg Biden to pull a 9/11 times 1000 to get the US somehow involved in the war before Trump starts his term. Godspeed to you Zman.

 

[contricusc]

Interesting times are on their way. Trump is about to win the election. He has promised that he'll end the war in Ukraine. Most people assume that means he's going to immediately cut off Ukraine's support and make a deal with Vladimir Putin.

Only time will tell if Trump will be able to deliver on his pre-election promises.

Once he becomes president, he may find the situation to be much more difficult to deal with than what he expects. And there will be a lot of pressure on him to not give Putin a clear victory. The media will make sure that he is labeled “Putin’s puppet” if he offers Russia advantageous terms, and he may be forced to do the opposite to save face and keep his image of being a strong negotiator.

In the other scenario where he does Putin’s bidding as many people expect him to, there is a strong possibility of a mobilization among European leaders to help Ukraine and sabotage Trump’s peace deal, as Trump will antagonize the EU with his tariff threats and bullying style.

But the sure thing is that Trump’s election win will have an impact on the war, and the situation is likely to become more fluid next year.

 

[blackjack]

Only time will tell if Trump will be able to deliver on his pre-election promises.

Once he becomes president, he may find the situation to be much more difficult to deal with than what he expects. And there will be a lot of pressure on him to not give Putin a clear victory. The media will make sure that he is labeled “Putin’s puppet” if he offers Russia advantageous terms, and he may be forced to do the opposite to save face and keep his image of being a strong negotiator.

In the other scenario where he does Putin’s bidding as many people expect him to, there is a strong possibility of a mobilization among European leaders to help Ukraine and sabotage Trump’s peace deal, as Trump will antagonize the EU with his tariff threats and bullying style.

But the sure thing is that Trump’s election win will have an impact on the war, and the situation is likely to become more fluid next year.

Assuming he gives a shit about being called Putin's puppet on his last term and I am sure he was already called Putin's puppet back in 2016 and didn't give a shit. Let's see if the guy that is not too keen on giving money to Ukraine will continue giving money to Ukraine(Even you got to wake up and smell the coffee right now)

Edit:

12:50 watch and read Zelensky's body language. Prayers the orange man doesn't fuck him over. I am sure the US is very financially important to Ukraine

 

[SilverMachine]

Ukraine was done no matter who won this, but yeah, bet on Zelensky being more amenable to talks going forward. Sounds like he's already started last week in a round-about way with the "hey buddy, let's stop striking each other's energy plants, hm?" overture through other countries.

Just take what you can get, man, it's hardly ideal but it's the best you're going to get. Biden's tit just so dried up, and the Europeans are running out of boom booms to spare. Also, while you're at it, set your country on the path to having an election once shit wraps up, your benefit-of-the-doubt there won't last forever.

 

[FiReFTW]

Interesting times are on their way. Trump is about to win the election. He has promised that he'll end the war in Ukraine. Most people assume that means he's going to immediately cut off Ukraine's support and make a deal with Vladimir Putin. If what people suspect is true, he'll pretty much trade the Donbas and what Russia controls now, coupled with a Ukarainian withdrawal from occupied Russia, in exchange for the end of the war and a promise to Putin that Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO.

Without the United States' leadership in military hardware for Ukraine, the war effort will fall short barring Europe making an extremely unlikely decision to go all in, in support of Ukraine's war effort.

Just keeping it real. I'm obviously a Ukraine supporter but I've always tried to keep it honest regarding the levels of military and macro economic support that Ukraine is getting and how much it needs to continue it's war effort. Barring a significant change of heart from Trump, the $50 Billion usd loan from the G7 might be the last military / economic support that America participates in. An even bigger blow is if the Trump Government bans Ukraine from buying American made weapons with that loan.

Joe Biden now has 2 months to send the final $4 Billion usd in remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority military supplies to Ukraine. I'll be curious to see if that's even an option. That would represent a staggering rate of package deliveries that I don't see taking place, which means that at least some of that money most likely remains on the table.

Again, very interesting times. Unless Europe steps up enormously (which doesn't look likely) I can see a reasonable end to the war by no later than next summer, with Ukraine continuing to exist, with some Western defense guarantees, but with Russia annexing approximately the 20% of Ukraine they've taken and Ukraine withdrawing all of their troops from Russian territory.

It was about time that someone smart ends this pointless war and not let it drag on for 5 more years with millions more dead.

 

[Relic]

It was about time that someone smart ends this pointless war and not let it drag on for 5 more years with millions more dead.

It's absolutely awful for the Ukrainians, who have plenty of fight left in them, but lack the funds and the domestic military capability to fund / fight this war on their own.

They'll be forced to forfeit 20% of their country and all the resources located in those territories and Russia will be allowed to bully another country in its proximity and take more of their land.

The West had a glaring opportunity to exhaust the Soviet stockpile using very little funding (relatively speaking). Walking away from that strategy is a mistake. Another $200 Billion usd in funding would have been enough to leave Russia's armor stockpiles in shambles. It looks like Ukraine will probably only receive $50-$75 Billion usd worth of those funds, which will leave the job undone And will leave Russia as a significant offensive threat to region in the coming years.

 

[FiReFTW]

It's absolutely awful for the Ukrainians, who have plenty of fight left in them, but lack the funds and the domestic military capability to fund / fight this war on their own.

They'll be forced to forfeit 20% of their country and all the resources located in those territories and Russia will be allowed to bully another country in its proximity and take more of their land.

The West had a glaring opportunity to exhaust the Soviet stockpile using very little funding (relatively speaking). Walking away from that strategy is a mistake. Another $200 Billion usd in funding would have been enough to leave Russia's armor stockpiles in shambles. It looks like Ukraine will probably only receive $50-$75 Billion usd worth of those funds, which will leave the job undone And will leave Russia as a significant offensive threat to region in the coming years.

You underestimate the willpower of the Russian people, they would have won this war regardless, only with many more million dead people and Ukraine would be even more exhausted and destroyed, already generations of Ukranian young men are dead, I wonder how their population will grow in the future to be honest.
This was the best case scenario for Ukraine... well... the best case would have been to negotiate a peace after the offensives they did when they held much more Ukranian land but that was long ago, sadly the West blinded by wanting to weaken Russia as much as possible was completely incompetent at preventing what happend in the past months where Ukraine has less and less land and it keeps losing more and more, so in the end they will have even less land available because of this st*pidity.

 

[Soldier30]

Ukrainian media published a video allegedly showing North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region of Russia. It is unknown who is actually shown in the video, perhaps this is trolling Russian soldiers. It is reported that DPRK soldiers in Russia are taught mine-explosive work and the basics of the Russian language.

 

[Soldier30]

Four Ukrainian kamikaze drones attacked the Russian city of Kaspiysk in Dagestan today, the video was published by local eyewitnesses. Some of the ships of the Russian Caspian Flotilla are stationed in Kaspiysk. Presumably, Ukrainian kamikaze drones of the A-22 "Flying Fox" aircraft type were used, the drones are based on the Aeroprakt A-22 aircraft. Some of the drones were shot down with small arms. Judging by the video, one of the drones presumably exploded near the decommissioned Russian missile boat "Stupinets" of Project 12411T, another drone exploded near a small missile ship of Project 21631. Presumably, Russian electronic warfare was operating in the port area, distorting the GPS signal, which is why the drones missed. At the moment, it is unknown whether the ships were damaged or not.