Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[SilverMachine]

I mean, they're objectively gaining ground, every western government acknowledges that. A thousand dead grunts a day is bad news for the Rooskies if true, but it's nothing the people won't accept or the military can't absorb in the name of progress.

Again, every guy Ukraine loses is irreplaceable. For the Russians it's just "plenty more where those came from - go get some lifers from the prisons or hit up Kim for more cannon fodder from the hermit kingdom. We don't even have to go up a level with mobilization/conscription here."

Also, chances are if Russian losses are that high, Ukraine's not eactly having a party here either. Even if it's not a 1:1 equal ratio, they're losing dudes too.

 

[Spitfire9]

I mean, they're objectively gaining ground, every western government acknowledges that. A thousand dead grunts a day is bad news for the Rooskies if true, but it's nothing the people won't accept or the military can't absorb in the name of progress.

Again, every guy Ukraine loses is irreplaceable. For the Russians it's just "plenty more where those came from - go get some lifers from the prisons or hit up Kim for more cannon fodder from the hermit kingdom. We don't even have to go up a level with mobilization/conscription here."

Also, chances are if Russian losses are that high, Ukraine's not eactly having a party here either. Even if it's not a 1:1 equal ratio, they're losing dudes too.

I agree that in crude terms Russian manpower is inexhaustible. If North Korea chooses to continue to supply troops, that supply is inexhaustible. Ukraine does not have a limitless pool of troops in the same way. However, every man Russia sends to Ukraine (prisoners excepted) is a man removed from the labour force available to Russian industry when shortage of labour is causing major economic problems.

IMO Ukraine can't hold its own in this contest by the use of troops and armoured vehicles etc. I think that it needs to eat away at Russia's economy and at Russia's ability to support its war effort through attacks on its supply infrastructure - something it has been prevented from doing in full by its allies. Unless that changes I would see Ukraine slowly retreating from the land it holds until US support is withdrawn and the Ukrainian government is forced to sue for an end to the war.

I have no idea how the people of Ukraine will react if Zelensky tries to sell them the idea of part of their country being annexed by a vicious, corrupt regime.

 

[SilverMachine]

A lot of the actual factories and stuff aren't in the west of Russia, I doubt Ukraine can do a whole lot in terms of nullifying the equipment coming through. At least in more than a symbolic way, in some manner that actually turns the tide.

As far as the second part, who knows. I'd venture they're getting tired of it all. No idea how popular Zelensky himself is over there these days, but he does seem to have ditched a *little* of the messianic "we will prevail, we will win!" stuff lately, or at least tempered it. That's smart, because the worse this becomes he doesn't want to become Baghdad Bob, the people will see through it if he's only taking the good news from the generals and pretending everything's peachy.

 

[blackjack]

@Relic
Andrew Perpetua, Oryx and Warspotting all track both Russian and Ukrainian losses. You can also find a picture for every Russian vehicle on the Oryx website. You can also find thousands of Russian losses on the Reddit Combat Footage page. Covert Cabal also runs a YouTube channel in which he and his team use satelite imagery to track Russian vehicles and artillery removed from storage, used to replace Russian losses. It's fascinating how low Russia is on easily restored vehicles.



There are very good open source resources tracking the demise of the Soviet arsenal that was left to Russia.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855931152386629853

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting

Visually confirmed Russian losses in Russian war in Ukraine

ukr.warspotting.net

Covert Cabal

"War does not determine who is right, war determines who is left" -Unknown My goal is to create unbiased military analysis, which is something very rare these days. A lot of the military analyst I see in the media seem to be very partisan, or even just outright wrong giving incorrect...

m.youtube.com

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/

Ukraine war spotting has no recorded footage just photos anyone can make even with their own losses.Not even a time and date of where and when it occured. Covert cabal doesn't even offer an every update. Andrew from Twitter just pulls up a random excel which I can do to. Reddit only gives 2 updates in 24 hours while recording some old footage as stating it November like they are unsure on dates with their own claims.Is that it?
That still doesn't amount to what losses the Russia s inflict on Ukraine daily.

https://lostarmour.info/tags/lancet it's even harder trying to find Ukrainian equipment. They better get replenished soon as you say. Thanks for showing what vehicles get pledged, while I show depending on what month what lancets destroy with their recorded footage not counting the other drones and artillery they use.

The red cross source I posted here showing Russians willing to deliver 15 times more Ukrainian bodies for their own says it all. Surely the Ukrainians won't have any problems delivering the same amount of Russian bodies back with their own claims right?

 

[Spitfire9]

@Relic
Andrew Perpetua, Oryx and Warspotting all track both Russian and Ukrainian losses. You can also find a picture for every Russian vehicle on the Oryx website. You can also find thousands of Russian losses on the Reddit Combat Footage page. Covert Cabal also runs a YouTube channel in which he and his team use satelite imagery to track Russian vehicles and artillery removed from storage, used to replace Russian losses. It's fascinating how low Russia is on easily restored vehicles.



There are very good open source resources tracking the demise of the Soviet arsenal that was left to Russia.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855931152386629853

Losses ∙ Russia ∙ WarSpotting

Visually confirmed Russian losses in Russian war in Ukraine

ukr.warspotting.net

The red cross source I posted here showing Russians willing to deliver 15 times more Ukrainian bodies for their own says it all. Surely the Ukrainians won't have any problems delivering the same amount of Russian bodies back with their own claims right?

Not sure about that. IMO if one side is advancing, more enemy bodies should fall into their hands. The side retreating should not have so many enemy bodies fall into their hands.

 

[blackjack]

Not sure about that. IMO if one side is advancing, more enemy bodies should fall into their hands. The side retreating should not have so many enemy bodies fall into their hands.

Having an air force and 10 times the artillery, Ukrainian losses have always been significantly high rather if they stayed or retreated.Go ask the red cross why the Russians are generous in always trading more dead bodies back to Ukraine and even POWs?

This reminds me of News sources coming out of nowhere that Trump spoke to Putin giving Ukraine favorable treatment of a peace treaty. But Trump didn't contact the Kremlin and his son is still so cheerful on his social media accounts about cutting aid to Ukraine.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of combat use of the Russian 152-mm self-propelled gun 2S43 "Malva" in the Kursk region of Russia. The self-propelled gun "Malva" is mounted on the chassis BAZ-6910-027 "Voshchina". Judging by the video, the artillery gun used is still 2A64, it is planned to replace it with a longer-range one.

 

[Woland]

A short update about Russian offensive in Kursk oblast. 12.11.24:
- 3 BTR-82A;
- 1 MTLB;
- 2 trucks with 2A36;
- 3 BMP-3;
- 4 MRAP

Since 07.11 till 12.11 RUAF have lost at least 77 AFV. That’s what only visible and confirmed with video. Including the fact that Russian and Ukrainian mechanised battalions don’t have 30/40 AFV due to the structure (in general 17-24 per battalion. Same with tanks) it means that they have lost three (3) battalions of AFV.

Source:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1856352964178292939

 

[Spitfire9]

For the second day in a row, Russian forces have suffered record-high losses in Ukraine.

The estimated number is 1,950 troops lost in a single day, according to Ukraine's Armed Forces and The Kyiv Independent.

With that source, the number given has to be suspect but I think that a new record number of casualties may be true.

 

[blackjack]

Another update on the same day of actual visual proof worth more than a tweet with no visual proof as usual from the Ukrainian side

100 sq km for a day is quite a lot than the usual 40 sq kms. 2000 Russian casualties seems very accurate to.

 

[Relic]

Another update on the same day of actual visual proof worth more than a tweet with no visual proof as usual from the Ukrainian side
View attachment 72000

100 sq km for a day is quite a lot than the usual 40 sq kms. 2000 Russian casualties seems very accurate to.

Again,

There are thousands of videos on the Reddit Combat Footage page. All the same destruction is posted, both Russian and Ukrainian. Nobody is trying to present a reality in which Ukraine isn't losing substantial amounts of equipment as well. Guys like Andrew Perpetua post all of the painful Ukrainian losses as well. Whether that's destroyed fighter jets, a bunch of Bradleys, Leopards and Abrams, or even a Patriot Launcher / RADAR... They post it and count it all.

You're the only one trying to push pure propaganda as if Russia isn't losing anything, when in reality they're grinding through equipment at an insane level.

Why not just have meaningful conversation with us? Do you really think Russia is using hundreds T-62s and T-55s and thousands of BMP-1s because they want to? Do you really think they're pulling M-46s and old D-30s out of storage because they want to?... Of course not. They're doing it because they've burned through many of their best T-90s, T-80s, T-72s and BMP-2/3s.

Why do you think Ukraine has so many T-72s and T-80s in their inventories? It's not because they just had a vast pre-war supply of them. Some of it has had to do with Western aid, but many of those units were captured from the Russians during the 2022 Ukrainain counter offensive and they were put to use by the Ukrainians. Again, you can reference the ORYX list for the hundreds of MBTs and IFVs Russians left behind as they retreated in 2022, allowing those vehicles to fall into Ukrainian hands.

You're not going to see me try to hide the losses being experienced by the Ukrainians. I've posted the attrition of their best equipment, many of times. But why do you feel the need to cover up Russian losses when there is so much open source intelligence about them?

It's just not productive to the conversation. Post all the videos you want, that's quality information. But don't be so blindly partisan as to think that Russia isn't occurring mind boggling losses during these offensive campaigns.

 

[blackjack]

Again,

There are thousands of videos on the Reddit Combat Footage page. All the same destruction is posted, both Russian and Ukrainian. Nobody is trying to present a reality in which Ukraine isn't losing substantial amounts of equipment as well. Guys like Andrew Perpetua post all of the painful Ukrainian losses as well. Whether that's destroyed fighter jets, a bunch of Bradleys, Leopards and Abrams, or even a Patriot Launcher / RADAR... They post it and count it all.

You're the only one trying to push pure propaganda as if Russia isn't losing anything, when in reality they're grinding through equipment at an insane level.

Why not just have meaningful conversation with us? Do you really think Russia is using hundreds T-62s and T-55s and thousands of BMP-1s because they want to? Do you really think they're pulling M-46s and old D-30s out of storage because they want to?... Of course not. They're doing it because they've burned through many of their best T-90s, T-80s, T-72s and BMP-2/3s.

Why do you think Ukraine has so many T-72s and T-80s in their inventories? It's not because they just had a vast pre-war supply of them. Some of it has had to do with Western aid, but many of those units were captured from the Russians during the 2022 Ukrainain counter offensive and they were put to use by the Ukrainians. Again, you can reference the ORYX list for the hundreds of MBTs and IFVs Russians left behind as they retreated in 2022, allowing those vehicles to fall into Ukrainian hands.

You're not going to see me try to hide the losses being experienced by the Ukrainians. I've posted the attrition of their best equipment, many of times. But why do you feel the need to cover up Russian losses when there is so much open source intelligence about them?

It's just not productive to the conversation. Post all the videos you want, that's quality information. But don't be so blindly partisan as to think that Russia isn't occurring mind boggling losses during these offensive campaigns.

To keep it short I ask for evidence for statistics that none can provide here other than myself as proof. I never disagreed that both sides had high casualties just that some are higher than others.

 

[Woland]

To keep it short I ask for evidence for statistics that none can provide here other than myself as proof. I never disagreed that both sides had high casualties just that some are higher than others.

A response typical of the Russian school of propaganda:
- spend minimum amount of time while forcing your opponents to spend maximal time refuting your claims/screenshots
- when claims countering yours are presented, simply say "this is not proof" or "I'm asking for statistics"

You behave like a typical troll and having you here as a moderator does disservice to this community.

 

[blackjack]

A response typical of the Russian school of propaganda:
- spend minimum amount of time while forcing your opponents to spend maximal time refuting your claims/screenshots
- when claims countering yours are presented, simply say "this is not proof" or "I'm asking for statistics"

You behave like a typical troll and having you here as a moderator does disservice to this community.

Here we go again a guy that can never give a direct answer is still mad I am a moderator (you should complain about it the 3rd time next).

All you have to do is give a time, date, and recorded footage of Ukrainians supposedly causing massive casualties in a single day besides me being the only one that can provide that as vice versa. The information you gave me still proves my point that the casualties from the Ukrainians are still more massive with a huge reason why they keep getting pushed back with no plans yet when they will start another counteroffensive somewhere in 2025.

Ukraine Aid is Important, But So is Oversight of This Funding and Assistance

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a devastating loss of life, widespread humanitarian crisis, and other global effects. As of April, Congress has appropriated more than $174 billion to assist Ukraine. This includes funding to purchase missiles, ammunition, and combat vehicles for Ukraine...

www.gao.gov

Another bill has to be passed if they want to make any progress again to start any major counteroffensive and the chances of that happening are slim with the transition to the trump administration in less than 2 months with him not being so lenient in raising money past the 175 billion dollars that was already spent on Ukraine. Any news or claims of higher Russian casualties than Ukraine are just delusions because Ukraine has not made progress on their last major offensive like they have done with their previous major offensives and Russia is still pushing them back. Europe only paying the bill is just going to rake up Ukrainian casualties at a higher number than before.

I feel like people here don't realize how much 175 billion dollars is from the US(which is not counting Europe or funding from US going way back to 2014) and how that funding got Ukraine nowhere but got them pushed back after each major bill has been passed. Less money = less weapons and less weapons = more casualties. So please understand why I ask questions and ask for evidence when some goofs are telling me Russian casualties=Ukrainian casualties when Ukrainians are getting pushed back along with no major bills being passed now with the US election results. Saying Ukrainians have equal casualties with Russia under these circumstances is like saying native Americans had equal casualties to conquistadors

 

[SilverMachine]

Again, the point is that it doesn't *matter* if Russian casualties are at a higher rate than Ukraine's, even if one can prove that.

They can eat the losses with a grimace and and continued marching on, Ukraine can't. A grinding war of this nature goes Russia's way in 100% of any scenarios anyone chooses to run, short of western boots on the ground.

 

[UkroTurk]

They can eat the losses

That's why Russians imported meat from north Korea because there is no meat in the butcher!

Russians are struggling with the losses immensely, if there were free media in Russian federation you would know how difficult to manage the war.

Putin is not God, he has limits.

 

[SilverMachine]

Dude. Why *wouldn't* they use plentiful North Korean cannon-fodder instead of their own guys, if it's on offer?

That doesn't mean there aren't a shitload more Russian men they can throw into this thing. There are, Russia's barely really mobilized much at all for this conflict. They're not even on a real full-on war footing. If they have to, they can. Thing is, NK and China cozying up to them lately is super fruitful - if Kim's willing to show his loyalty to the little bald karate-and-judo-and-shirtless-horse-ridey guy by offering up combat virgins as artillery cover by the thousands, of course Putin's going to welcome that. Easiest solution, you know the NK fat-man is serious about the alliance, and you don't waste any of your own guys in case you need them down the line.

Russia has limits, absolutely. They're just nowhere even close to approaching them, fighting...fucking Ukraine of all places. If this spirals into Russia V.S. Poland or whatever (even without a full NATO response as a whole), then you'd likely see Russia rounding up a majority of guys between 18-50 to throw at the fight. They...haven't been doing that with Ukraine, like at all. They're just burning through their criminals and sending whoever's willing to volunteer for combat, there's no major-level draft.

Think the last numbers were 300 000 mobilized, and most of that is supply-chain, only volunteers going into combat. Supplemented by the get-out-of-jail-free convicts choosing likely-death over continued incarceration. Most analysts estimate the entirety of the Rooskie armed forces (active and reserves totaled, draft enacted, everyone mobilized to go) as at *least* 2 million, probably closer to 3. Don't kid yourself, if this was Russia at full mobilization from the start this thing wouldn't have gone the route it has with this quagmire/near-stalemate. The reason it has, the reason the Ukrainians have done better than epected since the start, is because Russia dipped a toe into Ukraine, they didn't jump all-in with everything they had.

 

[Spitfire9]

Another bill has to be passed if they want to make any progress again to start any major counteroffensive ...

I do not think that counteroffensive by Ukraine has had much probability of success in retrieving Ukrainian soil since late 2022.

Ukraine has an area or about 900,000 sq km. To my knowledge (please do correct me if wrong) less than 1% of Ukraine territory has changed hands since 2023.

On that tack, I am not going to enter into a debate about whether Ukraine ceases to be internationally recognised because one of the countries signatory to its recognition withdraws that recognition. Think 'Budapest Memorandum'. Think 'Russia'.

I do not think that Russia will drive the Ukrainians out of Ukraine. I do not think that Ukraine will drive the Russians out of Ukraine. In my view the outcome of this war will be decided by President Trump forcing either Ukraine or Russia to give way. In Ukraine's case by threatening to cut support to Ukraine, in Russia's case by by threatening to increase support to Ukraine.

In the absence of decisive intervention by the US, I guess that Russia should be forced to stop eventually by what is happening to the Russian economy. That promises to get worse and worse.

 

[Spitfire9]

I would expect Russia to push harder to gain ground after Trump's win . The report below tends to confirm the same. Although I have no evidence to support the number given, higher casualty numbers make sense to me.

Russia ‘suffering 2,000 casualties a day’ as war’s Kursk counter-offensive falters, Ukraine claims

Russia is suffering nearly 2,000 casualties a day trying to recapture the Kursk region and seize ground along the main front line in eastern Ukraine, according to Kyiv’s military.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[SilverMachine]

A little skeptical in the sense that first it was "1000" now it's "2000", but yeah, rising casualty numbers do make sense in recent weeks. The qualifier of course being that that's because there's been a lot of fighting and Russia's beaten back the Ukrainians to take more of their land, so...