Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

God damn it WW3 is here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858245261610381374

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Lol no it's not. That's patently absurd. If NATO got involved the Russian military would be slapped into submission within weeks. Nobody is using a nuclear weapon so let's forget that nonsense.

The Ukrainian Army, supported by 200,000 NATO troops and all the equipment they bring to the fight, supported by NATO air power and Russian air assets that Russia has very little capability of countering effectively, would bring this war to a conclusion pretty quickly.

 

[blackjack]

Lol no it's not. That's patently absurd. If NATO got involved the Russian military would be slapped into submission within weeks. Nobody is using a nuclear weapon so let's forget that nonsense.

The Ukrainian Army, supported by 200,000 NATO troops and all the equipment they bring to the fight, supported by NATO air power and Russian air assets that Russia has very little capability of countering effectively, would bring this war to a conclusion pretty quickly.

Lets see if some countries have any weapons, Poland might be a little challenge but the islamic states of France and Germany would be a little more easy. Keep in mind Europe barely has any production for military equipment and you need power and energy or mostly from Russia to produce ammunition, vehicles and all that good shit. I dont think its a great idea to send greenhorns from NATO that are wondering why they are getting sent to defend some 3rd world shithole against a million russian soldiers with 10 times less artillery.

 

[Relic]

I can't believe it took them like 2 in a half year to finally come to this decision. (which many people online perceive that as desperation)
the next variables are.

1. how much ATACMs, shorm shadow and jassms can get produced?
2. How much will be given in 2 months assuming Trump puts a halt?
3. What air defenses are present in density?
4. Time period of when deliveries will happen? The longer it drags the more effective Russian air defenses would be giving more time for interceptions depending on the gains they make on Ukraine for each day which increased dramatically this month and will do so the next following months.
5. Will the deliveries get immediately targeted in Ukraine since most of Russia's massive strikes were only periodic.

Only countermeasures now is probably increased drone/aircraft surveillance with satellite imagery to target MLRS systems before they strike and maybe a more denser air defense network than before that allowed some of their air defense launchers to get destroyed by a barrages of missiles.

This is a "nothing burger"....

It's been telegrpahed for months, like many other calculated decisions by the West. Ukraine no longer has large quantities of ATACMS, SCALP-EG and Stormshadow. GMLRS and JSOW are mid range weapons that will do nothing to impact Russian assets and infrastructure. JASSM was never approved for transfer, which furthers adds to the lack of long range Western weapons in the inventory.

USA strategically waited for months to allow Russia to reposition it's long range strike aircraft and enhance the air defense at their bases. The impact of this decision will be minimal barring a significant surge of standoff weapons for Ukraine, which I very much doubt happens at this point.

This decision has only now been made because North Korea is actively joining the war and USA is looking to help Ukraine create balance.

If Ukraine had 500 long range cruise missiles and ATACMS in their inventory, this would be something real. My guess is that as of right now they have maybe 100 (non-domestic) long range strike weapons at their disposal. That includes a combination of Stormshadow, SCALP-EG and ATACMs.

 

[blackjack]

This is a "nothing burger"....

It's been telegrpahed for months, like many other calculated decisions by the West. Ukraine no longer has large quantities of ATACMS, SCALP-EG and Stormshadow. GMLRS and JSOW are mid range weapons that will do nothing to impact Russian assets and infrastructure. JASSM was never approved for transfer, which furthers adds to the lack of long range Western weapons in the inventory.

USA strategically waited for months to allow Russia to reposition it's long range strike aircraft and enhance the air defense at their bases. The impact of this decision will be minimal barring a significant surge of standoff weapons for Ukraine, which I very much doubt happens at this point.

This decision has only now been made because North Korea is actively joining the war and USA is looking to help Ukraine create balance.

If Ukraine had 500 long range cruise missiles and ATACMS in their inventory, this would be something real. My guess is that as of right now they have maybe 100 (non-domestic) long range strike weapons at their disposal. That includes a combination of Stormshadow, SCALP-EG and ATACMs.

more than 450 ATACMs were fired in operation Iraq freedom and war ended on a late date. You might need a little more than 500 that you are requesting assuming their positions don't get targeted and that they can get through a way denser modern air defense network.

 

[Relic]

Lets see if some countries have any weapons, Poland might be a little challenge but the islamic states of France and Germany would be a little more easy. Keep in mind Europe barely has any production for military equipment and you need power and energy or mostly from Russia to produce ammunition, vehicles and all that good shit. I dont think its a great idea to send greenhorns from NATO that are wondering why they are getting sent to defend some 3rd world shithole against a million russian soldiers with 10 times less artillery.

You don't want to believe me, and that's fine, but the Russian Army is in the worst shape it's been I decade. The majority of their active army is built from conscripts with little to no training. They've lost most of their best MBTs and are increasingly using old T-72s and a high number of ancient T-62s. They've lost so many BMPs that BTR-82s have become their most common "IFV" to transfer troops. Their self-propelled artillery has been hammered and they are increasingly using old D-30s, D-20s and now we're seeing very old M-46s joining the fight.

The Russian Army wants no part of a combined NATO Army that has not lost 1% of it's active fighting force and is actually significantly stronger now than it was before the Russian invasion.

Not to mention, I'll say it again... Russia has absolutely no answer to NATO's air power or Naval supremacy.

 

[Relic]

more than 450 ATACMs were fired in operation Iraq freedom and war ended on a late date. You might need a little more than 500 that you are requesting assuming their positions don't get targeted and that they can get through a way denser modern air defense network.

500 is simply a number I put out to have an immediate impact on the Russians and blunt their current offensive. It's not a war winning quantity. There is no realistic war winning quantity. If we agree that nukes are not getting used, there is no silver bullet for either side in this war.

 

[blackjack]

You don't want to believe me, and that's fine, but the Russian Army is in the worst shape it's been I decade. The majority of their active army is built of conscripts withe little to know training. They've lost most of their best MBTs and are increasingly using old T-72s and a high number of ancient T-62s. They've lost so many BMPs that BTR-82s have become their most common "IFV" to transfer troops. Their self-propelled artillery has been hammered and they are increasing using old D-30s, D-20s and now we're seeing very old M-46s joining the fight.

The Russian Army wants no part of a combined NATO Army that has not lost 1% of it's active fighting force and is actually significantly stronger now than it was before the Russian invasion.

Not to mention, I'll say it again... Russia has absolutely no answer to NATO's air power or Naval supremacy.

This article is from like a month ago.
https://dzen.ru/a/ZurkBaaPODQW0C0N
The decree comes into force on December 1. The staffing level of the Russian Armed Forces will now be 2,389,130 people, including 1.5 million military personnel (almost 900 thousand more are civilian personnel: drivers, medical workers, cooks, psychologists and representatives of other specialties).

This is already the third increase in the Russian army's staff since the beginning of the Central Military District. In August 2022, Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the staffing level by 137 thousand servicemen, and in December 2023 - by another 170 thousand.

Ukrainians and Russians have actual experience in a modern warfare battlefield, Most of NATO battles have been with countries where people use AKs and flip flops. Also, Ukrainians and Russians have this strong belief that this country is theirs to a NATO soldier they are just fighting for some 3rd world shithole that dragged them in this mess(morale is always important for war). Russians' troops have constantly been rotated. Also based on shell, artillery and rocket production it still seems that Russia still outproduces NATO. With these factors in mind, I think it's safe to say who gets more casualties and deaths. Production for T-90s, latest BMPs, howitzers and MLRS systems have not stopped while they use the rest of their soviet stockpile in this war.

AFAIK I dont think there will be that much willing participants to join the NATO military especially with the shortages those countries talk about in terms of manpower before the Ukraine war(now there will be less participation to join NATO because of a possible conflict now with Russia)

I don't think Iran cared about blowing up some F-35s in Israel like Russia with way more missiles than Iran would care if they blew up airbases. The same with ships getting blown up with torpedoes, cruise missiles, zircons and khinzals.

 

[blackjack]

500 is simply a number I put out to have an immediate impact on the Russians and blunt their current offensive. It's not a war winning quantity. There is no realistic war winning quantity. If we agree that nukes are not getting used, there is no silver bullet for either side in this war.

The only thing that can blunt Russia's current offensive is for them to receive more equipment and artillery. I dont think it would be a strategic choice to use ATACMs missiles on spread out foot soldiers firing these missiles like MLRS systems.