Let me correct that for you.
If there's no insurgency,
then make one
Here's the thing, Taliban is a decentralized org, this is no longer one man show during the Mullah Omar era, the only thing that unites Talibs is the common enmity of US occupation in the land and the suffering it brought. Hence no wonder why some Hazaras, Uzbek or Tajiks now join the fight. Basically the ANA is just to corrupt and brutal in its conduct of war that it isolates the rural people into embracing Taliban.
as history and recent events showed us, the loyalty of the so called "Top commanders" are at best FLUID.
and here's my favorite card of all time. the Uyghurs.
it's very naive to think that ultra conservatives will just bow down to Chinese money and forgot the Uyghurs persecution right next door like some members here suggest, maybe for the Taliban top delegation in Doha but not for the rank and file in the ground (including many field commanders) who have a deep sense of loyalty . Being a decentralized org, there's always room for an eventual split.
these people are people that basically believe that when they die, they will go to heaven and they're fighting for the just cause of Allah. It's hard to underestimate the fealty to fellow muslims next door.
I watch this interview with PBS on Afghan Taliban and they say thing s like this = "
Even if we die, we WIN". So the possibility of rogue element goes berserk are still a big possibility , because they believe even if such things are illogical it doesn't matter, what they know is they will be rewarded by god.
Now who's going to guarantee some recently high on victory men from wrecking havoc towards the disbelievers next doors ???
The west would only need to propagate those Uyghur stories harder and louder, it'll eventually do the job done.
winning wars=/=successful nation building, ISIS was just as successful militarily in Iraq and Syria right before they declare their caliphate.
it's an open question if Taliban will be capable to hold the entire nation, also noting that many of their fighters will be demobilized as they've won the war.
For some demobilized fighter, life will goes on as usual. But in Jihadis case that's hardly the norm, most will want to continue their Jihad, and what's the best motivation for them knowing that right next door , next to the Wakhan corridor there's millions of muslim population under genocide from an evil atheistic commie regime. Sounds like a good plot for the CIA to exploit ??? no???
If Taliban manage to curb them then OK, now what if they don't???
Are some countries gonna follow the foot step of Alexander, GB, USSR and the USA in Afghanistan ???
if yes, the said countries just give team Biden a huge win.
