Live Conflict War in Afghanistan

Anastasius

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To be honest,
"occupation" label on Taliban act is not appropriate word.

Furthermore,
the Taliban are the people of Afghanistan,
not outside invader.
Taliban does have members from outside countries fighting in Afghanistan. And they are absolutely an oppressive regime. The only difference is, most of Afghanistan supports this oppressive regime for some bizarre reason. If I was in charge of Turkey, I would only care about finding some way to get the Hazaras and Uzbeks and other Turkic people out of that shithole (exchange them for the "refugees"/migrants flooding in from that region like was done with Greece) and then leave them to slaughter each other for whatever pointless reasons they want.

If there's one thing talking to US service members who have been in Afghanistan and tried to work with the puppet government has taught me, it's that Afghanistan cannot be fixed. ANA "troops" are fundamentally retarded just going off the stories they have told me, so it's absolutely no surprise they fell apart in the face of the Taliban, who have the support of Pakistan and likely China as well. Only Afghanistan can pull itself out of the savagery it has fallen into and that requires at least a century of zero external intervention.

Or a NATO-style intervention where the Taliban were completely crushed like the first time (forget the fairy tales about American "defeat" - America was killing Taliban by the dozens, we just didn't have the balls to go full scorched earth and purge the country from end to end with brutality and "re-education" that would make Nazis and Soviets blush, which is the only way to completely exterminate the Taliban's backwardness from the region) but this time there's an actual plan on how to re-organize he country, Marshal Zhukov style.
 

guest_07

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Exactly. RTE not minding his words tells us that he is oblivious or not caring. He may not be able to change his rhetoric because he’s been using it for so long, but that would also be proof that he is no longer capable.
I'm have been a supporter of Erdogan
in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Iraq, etc.

I just don't agree with his choosing of word for this case.
 

Titanium100

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The ball is in Pakistan's corner.. I know the Taliban have already won and will likely win this conflict nothing locally will be able to reverse the taliban hold on Afghanistan they just overcame mulitple coalitions and Afghan gov't itself will not outlast the relentless Taliban.. They have technically won the conflict imho but Pakistan should be prepared to enter Afghanistan in favor of Taliban to end the Kabul regime in weeks if necesssary.

Pakistan will not and shall not tolerate a prolonged Conflict in any shape of way and the most important aspect is anti-pakistani elements entering Afghanistan. Hence Afghanistan is crucial for Pakistan and can't allow foreign entities to wage some sort of proxies there. Pakistan should approach the taliban and tell them we want to team up. Some Indians sending ammo and stuff like that will eventually trigger Pakistan to take massive action.

Afghanistan will fall within weeks in that case if Taliban gets backing from PK they were already winning and if Pakistan rolls in the airforce and the troops this little skirmish ends immediately..

This is the right course of Action it shall not gamble it's future generations prosperity this is a core state interest that Afghanistan sees peace immediately and benefit for the future generations. Pakistan should be busy addressing everyone so people know Pakistan's true intention here. by the time August-setptember comes Pakistan should roll in it's armed forces and airforce... This is the same reasons why Turkey penetrated Syria and Iraq because they didn't want refugees or continued unrest on it's borders. Enough is enough for Pakistan it should addresse all relevant players in local afghan theater that this is unacceptable for Pakistan if ceasefire attempt fails Pakistan should join hands with Taliban as they are clearly the stronger side in Afghanistan and nobody can undo them.. Just put them in power immediately by smashing the kabul element within weeks and everything is basically over
 

Kaptaan

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Looking forward to Talibans reaction.
No idea what Erdo is trying to do here. Very provocative use of language and liable to make things worse.

he ball is in Pakistan's corner
I agree. Pakistan has to step forward. I can't for life of me understand why Pk is so apoogetic and defensive about it's role inside Afghanistan. Thus far just about every country in the Northern Hemisphere* has at some point intruded in, send soldiers to support one faction against another in Afghanistan or indirectly done so. Therefore why should Pakistan feel defensive when it is the most connected neighbour and is effected most by what happens in Afghanistan? Rest of the world just walks in on some flimsy excuse because they are worried about their interests on the other side of the world but Pakistan is supposed to explain and defend it's every move.
 

Titanium100

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No idea what Erdo is trying to do here. Very provocative use of language and liable to make things worse.


I agree. Pakistan has to step forward. I can't for life of me understand why Pk is so apoogetic and defensive about it's role inside Afghanistan. Thus far just about every country in the Northern Hemisphere* has at some point intruded in, send soldiers to support one faction against another in Afghanistan or indirectly done so. Therefore why should Pakistan feel defensive when it is the most connected neighbour and is effected most by what happens in Afghanistan? Rest of the world just walks in on some flimsy excuse because they are worried about their interests on the other side of the world but Pakistan is supposed to explain and defend it's every move.

Pakistan has always been involved in one way or another in the last 40 years but the reason they have chosen to find middle ground is because it wants it ended immediately with a ceasefire without upsetting the ANA but the Afghan gov't has shown it's true colors being extremely hostile towards Pakistan and going against Pakistan core state interests. Everybody knows Pakistan has major stake here but since the Afghan gov't is taking decision against the Pakistan core interest Pakistan will have to intervene militarily and show it's true intention..

Pakistan will not tolerate by means anti-elements in Afghanistan and this afghan gov't has shown to be the one behind the PLA insurgents and these bombings against the chinese engineers all link to Afghan gov't via Pakistan state enemies this is a hostile entity without a shadow of doubt.. They are on the edge of crossing the red-lines and Pakistan without doubt will intervene imho and they are currently concerned by this Afghan gov't elements and their decisions which is suicidal to say the least.. Trying Pakistan's resolve has failed time and time again and this time won't be different..

Pakistan realize what this is all about and will not be hesitant to end this weak kabul regime within weeks when it is absolute necessary nobody will be able to assist them against a rampaging nuclear armed Pakistan that is angry. They are walking on a very thin ice if you ask me and the explosion point for Imran Khan/Bajwa is at near hand
 
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Kaptaan

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America was killing Taliban by the dozens, we just didn't have the balls to go full scorched earth and purge the country from end to end with brutality and "re-education" that would make Nazis and Soviets blush, which is the only way to completely exterminate the Taliban's backwardness from the region) but this time there's an actual plan on how to re-organize he country, Marshal Zhukov style.
The issue you raise is related to why America went to Afghanisan -

  • to hunt down AQ and OBL consequent to the 9/11 event in which case Taliban are secondary. If so then you just spent 20 years bombing everything for no reason.
  • to transform Afghanistan from a tribal and medieval society by dragging it into 21st century - meaning nation building project. If so why have you left after 20 years? It would take about 100 years to transform a society. That is time required to let 2-3 generations die out and let natural evolution take place. If so then America and you have taken nation building do please invade Africa, South America etc and 'fix' many countries there as well.

I notice people keep using 'savages' etc for Taliban and wider Afghan society. It;s important to first understand there there is lot of convergence between ethnic groups of Afghanistan and region around them such as Central Asia. So why the 'savages'? The real issue here is not even Islam. From sociological point of view it is patriarchy. This is the real source of the problem.

Tough tribal societies in this part of the world often having warrior instincts are patriarchal. This included Turkic peoples as well as the Iranics. Indeed Iranics were less tribal then Turkics historically. When Islam came along it was melded into these patriarchal, tribal societies.

In 1880s the Russian's came along to this part of the world as did the British. Both drew lines so as to avoid clashing with each other and left the region inbetween their zones to be what is now Afghanistan. This gave the divide which even exists today. The region on the south or what is today Pakistan came under the British rule by about 1850. The Russians had most of Central Asia by 1870s and the zone in between or Afghanistan became the 'buffer' or sort of no man's land.

Buffer.png


What followed after 1870s is fascinating not only from political history but also from sociological evolution of the region. One region now was going to be a test lab -

1. Central Asia /modern 'Stans'. Under Russian rule this region went through forced change. Heavy handed tactics involving purges, mass killing, population transfers to Siberia were practiced all the way to Stalin's era. Under Soviets patriarchy was seen as a hurdle in preventing social revolution to a proper socialist society. Thus destruction of patriarchy and Islam was the chosen method to bring change., By undoing patriachy the femal half of society can be cultivated to give birth to a new generation who think differantly from their fathers and forefathers. The Chinese are doing something like this with the Uighurs. The net result of these aggresive Soviet policies was emergence of modern Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan. To demonstrate the result of this forced change all you have to do is look at the same kith/kin living across the Amu Darya border. Tajiks/Uzbeks in Afghanistan and their brothrers/sisters on north side of Amu Darya River. The differance is amazing.

Female, Samarqand, Uzbekistan 1915.

1626774977295.png


A veil-burning ceremony in Andijan on International Women's Day in 1927

1626774870810.png




The British in the south of what became Pakistan adopted a very 'soft' approach. Instead of trying to reform or change society they went in for co-opting the ruling elites of the region. So tribal heads, local Khans, Maliks, landed gentry, royalty would be given British education including sending private schools, Oxford University etc and crateted a class of 'brown sahibs'. In addition they inducted the yeoman class into their civil and military serivice. By doing this they craftly bought a very cost effective handle on native societies by inducting the 10% into their club. That however left 90% mass entirely like they had lived for centuries.

You see the effects of this today in Pakistan. That 10% brown sahibs still control the state. This includes people like Imran Khan ,Bhuttos and the rest of the elite. They live a schizoid life. One foot in the west and one foot in the east. They are forced to have two faces. One face is to placate the mass of the population who still remain conservative the other face is living it good in the West. If you look at the personal lives of all these Khans, Bhuttos etc you will see this duality.

This is our Prime Minister's other face in 1990

1626776034632.png


The yeomanry that provided the British with military and civil officials today is the middle class and still forms the bulk of the manpower for government/military officials. This group today is about 30% of the country which leaves 50% belonging to the class still fodder for radical Islamic parties with mullahs holding sway.

Then we have Afghanistan which was left as buffer and asides from Kabul where some foreign influence permeatd but rest of the country of mountains/valley remained pretty well as it was. Tribal, patriarcal with mutation of Islam perfectly designed to provide sanction to those practices. Taliban are the military and political manifestation of that. So unless you decide to wipe them out and then re-configure the society which would take at least three generation nothing much will change right now. We will have to wait for evolution to take it's sweet time.

You might wonder why has the 50% tribal/conservative mass not followed the Afghan way. The reasons are -

100 years of British rule and raising of the elite class along with large middle class has now provided a large social anchor which means the state is firmly in hands of this group. Thus despite trouble it has stood solid and it will continue to stand solid particularly as with each year more of the population graduate into trappings of middle class.

The 50% mass still can be easily manipulated by the mullahs and cause trouble but most of the clergy have been bought out by the state. However large scale militarization of this class has been prevented. The various military operations against TTP etc were about wiping the radical armed groups that posed challange.

That said the state is aware that this group has to be reformed or it will be cause of much instabilty. Various policies ranging from using hard force, to education - for instance all madaris now will be registered and recieve money to teach normal subjects which might give the students a chance in a modern economy. Female education and huge social investment in basic female heathcare etc. This of course will take long time.

I hope this explains the underlying dynamic of te canvas of this region and help you understand the underlying reasons informing the events.
 

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Saithan

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No idea what Erdo is trying to do here. Very provocative use of language and liable to make things worse.


I agree. Pakistan has to step forward. I can't for life of me understand why Pk is so apoogetic and defensive about it's role inside Afghanistan. Thus far just about every country in the Northern Hemisphere* has at some point intruded in, send soldiers to support one faction against another in Afghanistan or indirectly done so. Therefore why should Pakistan feel defensive when it is the most connected neighbour and is effected most by what happens in Afghanistan? Rest of the world just walks in on some flimsy excuse because they are worried about their interests on the other side of the world but Pakistan is supposed to explain and defend it's every move.


I think the safe zone is the first step PAF may establish even if only 5-10 km deep, which may explain the visit to Iran to see how it’s done. The fence won’t last long against surging refugee stream a
 

Titanium100

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I think the safe zone is the first step PAF may establish even if only 5-10 km deep. The fence won’t last long against surging refugee stream a

Buffer zone is off the table here because it doesn't fall in line with Pakistan core interests here but A friendly regime is and the taliban are reasonable and the better choice here but Pakistan doesn't tolerate anti-elements who are behind the terrorist attacks on Pakistani soil the Afghan gov't is linked to PLA insurgents via Afghan gov't getting some sort of desi finanicing this is a warfare on Pakistan and the only way to reply is to uproot the kabul regime entirely and all the anti-elements that is hazardous to Pakistan stability.. I am confident that patience is running out and they are walking on thin ice.. I won't be surprised to see a unilateral incursion which is last resort but Pakistan may have reached that level currently and there is no other offer on the table currently because the Afghan gov't hostilities is not doing them any favors... Cooperating with anti-Pakistani elements and terrorist groups such as PLA who target Pakistani state projects and CPEC etc etc.. Just nah man they will be deemed sooner or later terrorist organistation and black listed In Pakistan I mean the Afghan gov't will be black-listed.. Pakistan has all the pretexts to go in an clean house.. PLA constant attacks, CPEC installation targetting and other state interests all linked to Afghan gov't via third part financing this will eventually come hurting them at their worst point and their most vulnerable period once a raging Pakistan gets out of it's shell which could just be weeks away from that...

All these elements such as PLA and other elements will not vanish until Pakistan cleans Afghanistan of ANA officials and their puppet elements. As strange as it may sound with Taliban Afghanistan is peaceful and quiet. IEA is the realistic alternative and much friendlier neighbour that everyone will enjoy having. Not this incompetent regime that is corrupt to the bones and full of criminals who will initiate all types of terrorist activities if you pay them right they are Hazardous not only to Pakistan but the future economy to the entire region where countries like Uzbekistan and other central Asian and even China wants to see them gone from an economical point of view.. Everyone appreciates deep down sane people who act upon their own state interests unlike this corrupt regime.. It is a pest to central asia as awhole
 
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Titanium100

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Looks like Turkey wants to deploy and it sounds as if it is gonna be more broad this is a good initiative. Having Turkey deploy thru out the country this suits everyones interest as long as they are not combatant which they are not.. Pakistan itself won't have anything against this deployment of turkey on the larger picture and so should Taliban.. Honestly Taliban should charm turkey as they will gain more from them.. Taliban asking for Turkey's exit does nothing of benefit for them rather than having the turks stay and invest in their government and armed forces.. Ending the Kabul regime will be good for all sides imho the whole central asia including China, Turkey, Pakistan etc etc

 

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Looks like Turkey wants to deploy and it sounds as if it is gonna be more broad this is a good initiative. Having Turkey deploy thru out the country this suits everyones interest as long as they are not combatant which they are not.. Pakistan itself won't have anything against this deployment of turkey on the larger picture and so should Taliban.. Honestly Taliban should charm turkey as they will gain more from them.. Taliban asking for Turkey's exit does nothing of benefit for them rather than having the turks stay and invest in their government and armed forces


Taliban's have no problem with Turkey or Erdogan, they just consider them an element of NATO as Turkey came to Afghanistan with US and NATO. They consider Turkey an important muslim country and insist that Turkey should withdraw their forces.
Erdogan statement is positive (His gov't has nothing against Taliban's ideology and believes he will easily negotiate with Taliban), hope he could use his religious charm.
 

Anastasius

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Looks like Turkey wants to deploy and it sounds as if it is gonna be more broad this is a good initiative. Having Turkey deploy thru out the country this suits everyones interest as long as they are not combatant which they are not.. Pakistan itself won't have anything against this deployment of turkey on the larger picture and so should Taliban.. Honestly Taliban should charm turkey as they will gain more from them.. Taliban asking for Turkey's exit does nothing of benefit for them rather than having the turks stay and invest in their government and armed forces

Pretty much all governments have accepted Taliban rule as a predetermined conclusion. I can only hope for two things:

1) Taliban helps stop the migrant flow.

2) Taliban stops attacking Turkic minorities.

There are more but these are the two that I hope that Erdogan, as incompetent a diplomat as he is, can at least wring out of this. Maybe Pakistan can be leveraged to pressure the Taliban on this. Turkey wins roughly zero out of getting involved in conflict in Afghanistan. "Victory" is impossible without unmentionable brutality being carried out that will be condemned worldwide.
 

Titanium100

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Pretty much all governments have accepted Taliban rule as a predetermined conclusion. I can only hope for two things:

1) Taliban helps stop the migrant flow.

2) Taliban stops attacking Turkic minorities.

They have a large portion of turkics in their ranks. The taliban in turkic areas are technically ethnic turkics and the same with the tajiks. This taliban has followers from both Turkics and Tajiks something the pre-2001 taliban version didn't enjoy.. The easiest areas that went to Taliban control currently without struggle were Tajik and Turkic areas because majority of the tajiks and turkics are pro-taliban and taliban members and enjoy support amongst their populations

 
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Blank1

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All the terrorist elements financed by the enemies of Pakistan successfully wasted 20 years, billion's of dollars and 3 trillion's by the champion of humanity. They have achieved nothing that they could gloat about. Their only success they had was butchering millions of civilians in Afghanistan and thousands in Pakistan.
Their action helped evolved Taliban's, now the superpower killers. All the assets that was suppose to be used against Taliban's are now in the hands of Taliban's, So rude of them they didn't even say thank you.

MOST of the terrorist elements are exterminated with extreme prejudice, They have to numb their pain with bringing new rentals to the field PTM etc. who are having seriously bad days, their barking wont last longer. Any one left will die off on its own, Killed by Taliban's or will receive more then needed love.

Pakistan got no desire to militarily intervene in Afghanistan, Don't get your hopes high, they waited 20 years for a reason. PAK already told Kabul regime to stay the F away from spin boldak border crossing, only thing they could do was to bitch about evil PAF.
 

Titanium100

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All the terrorist elements financed by the enemies of Pakistan successfully wasted 20 years, billion's of dollars and 3 trillion's by the champion of humanity. They have achieved nothing that they could gloat about. Their only success they had was butchering millions of civilians in Afghanistan and thousands in Pakistan.
Their action helped evolved Taliban's, now the superpower killers. All the assets that was suppose to be used against Taliban's are now in the hands of Taliban's, So rude of them they didn't even say thank you.

MOST of the terrorist elements are exterminated with extreme prejudice, They have to numb their pain with bringing new rentals to the field PTM etc. who are having seriously bad days, their barking wont last longer. Any one left will die off on its own, Killed by Taliban's or will receive more then needed love.

Pakistan got no desire to militarily intervene in Afghanistan, Don't get your hopes high, they waited 20 years for a reason. PAK already told Kabul regime to stay the F away from spin boldak border crossing, only thing they could do was to bitch about evil PAF.

No bro... Military intervention is a must here without a doubt.. Pakistan will not tolerate anti-elements in Afghanistan you can bet this on your life.. Pakistan is ready to end this saga once and for all.. If it refuses it will smash anything that moves. this has already come to a conclusioin but any from of militants or undesired element will meet full force here. The key thing here is peace and Pakistan will not tolerate even the slightest of India meddling. This will send Pakistan into cloud 9 and come in faster than flash himself and rip everything apart... There is two types of Pakistan's a pissed off one and a rational one and nobody triggers Pakistan like India.. Just the conspiracy of India dropping ammos is enough to send Pakistan flying in like a MOFO in heat... Nobody rustles Pakistan's jimmies like India which is quitely useful at times and it comes handy... A rustled Pakistan is awhole different animal and unpredictable..

Pakistan is already about to be triggered but the final straw will come soon just wait in the next weeks Afghan gov't will trigger pakistan beyond return with something that has to do with the eastern border nation which is the absolute trigger point for Pakistan...
 
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