The essence of the UAE proposal is that a “reformed” Palestinian Authority, as the internationally recognized governing authority for Gaza, could invite international partners to support security and humanitarian aid in Gaza during a “stabilization mandate” that might last up to a year. The Emiratis are said to favor Fayad, the PA’s prime minister from 2007 to 2013, as leader of the reform effort. The Israelis appear willing to accept him. Fayad did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.
The Emirati proposal envisions that the PA would solicit military and intelligence support from a range of countries. Despite Netanyahu’s past strident opposition to the PA, Dermer is said to have conveyed that Israel might tacitly accept this approach.
Possible Arab security providers include Egypt, Morocco, Qatar and the UAE itself, officials said. The parties discussed potential security backing from non-Arab countries, too, including Italy, Rwanda, Brazil, Indonesia and perhaps a leading Central Asian nation. The United States would provide command-and-control and logistical support from a nearby base in Egypt. A potentially controversial part of the plan would be armed support from U.S.-based security contractors.
The back-channel group has discussed seeking backing for this stabilization force from the U.N. General Assembly, rather than the Security Council, where it might face a Russian veto or paralyzing negotiations. The initial stabilization period would be followed by a “reconstruction mandate” that could stretch for years.
In its white paper, the UAE is said to have detailed its basic ideas: After fighting ends, the “reformed” PA would issue its invitation to security providers. Israel would agree not to undermine this Gaza effort by making provocative moves in the West Bank that could explode the security situation there. The Emiratis also hope the United States will work to refine a “road map” toward an eventual Palestinian state, even though Israel wouldn’t endorse it.
The Emirati plan envisions a gradually expanding zone of internationally supported security moving from north to south in Gaza, one sector at a time. This approach is similar to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s proposal for security “bubbles,” though the emissaries don’t use that term. Though Netanyahu publicly rejected Gallant’s proposal, Dermer’s involvement suggests he might be ready to accept a rebranded version of it.
The Emiratis have played a growing role in Gaza, with a hospital there and other humanitarian efforts. They have tapped a network of supporters of Mohammed Dahlan, a former top PA security official from Gaza who has lived in Abu Dhabi since Hamas came to power. Dahlan, a controversial figure in Palestinian circles, doesn’t intend to return to the enclave, officials said. But the UAE hopes he will continue tapping a network of longtime supporters behind the scenes, officials told me.
Given Netanyahu’s past disdain for day-after planning, it’s good that his team is finally engaging these issues seriously. But the real requirement in Gaza — the sine qua non, literally, is a real and lasting end to the war. And the Abu Dhabi dialogue, encouraging as it is, hasn’t done anything yet to silence the guns.
