Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[chiphocks]

SU 35 is already death end since years ago, bringing SU 35 is not relevant. More over we are developing KF21/IFX with South Korea with American engine and Lockheed Martin help, so ordering SU 35 pose great risk to KF21/IFX program (for IFX) under CATSAA regime.

I think it is just soft message, supporting General Andika previous statement ( My opinion)

and that's why TNI sounds like saying "I'm sorry, forgive us for turning you down, i know we already have an agreement but things just got tooo complicated with those Westerns" to the Russian.

 

[Gundala]

The priority is to have more MRCA but still maintain fleet diversification since we lost SU 35. The original plan was 2 SKA of viper which then changed to Rafale. The shift of the global power balance and regional security prolly the reasons why 08 decided to push on Rafale thru strategic security approach. It costs more? Yea, still maintain the Op Req for the intended role? yea, can we maintain them? we have to. (cost approach vs security approach).

When the future of MRCA can fulfill the intended number to cover our air space then the need of single engine patrol can be replaced by T50i in certain "safer" area where the "hot zone" patrol will be relly upon the shoulder of Rafale & KF21. Thats how I see it.

Eagle II intended role is the same as our Sukhoi. US only need single seat for their Eagle II, that might not be the case here. Our heavy fighter might still serve a purpose as air supperiority & bomb truck. The original plan to have SU35 in Iswahjudi has both strategic & tactical approach behind it, for instance if we look at the coverage we might understand certain part of the tactical purpose behind it. So yeah, 2 SKA of heavy fighter is still needed in the eyes of our AU.

Now we have to stop arguing about more Rafale compare to more Eagle II. Both serve different purpose, intended role & Operational requirerment. The priority is to have more MRCA (specially Kupang) and adding additional Heavy fighter in Java. We need more MRCA first and slowly adding additional Heavy one since the "kebutuhan/keamanan" say so. Keep in mind that jet fighter falls into the catagory of air defense system, with the lack of ground base air def system the need of adidtional number of jet fighters is inevitable.

 

[NEKO]

The priority is to have more MRCA (specially Kupang) and adding additional Heavy fighter in Java.

IIRC previously there will be 2 new squadron in the eastern region (kupang and papua), I think Kalimantan also need new capable fighter stationed there.

 

[Umigami]

IIRC previously there will be 2 new squadron in the eastern region (kupang and papua), I think Kalimantan also need new capable fighter stationed there.

What's the best fighter for papua?
Boramae, Rafale, FA50 ?

 

[NEKO]

What's the best fighter for papua?
Boramae, Rafale, FA50 ?

Maybe we should relocate our flanker to Papua.

 

[Umigami]

Maybe we should relocate our flanker to Papua.

Why flanker?

 

[Parry Brima]

Maybe we should relocate our flanker to Papua.

Why flanker?

To make australia ketar-ketir

 

[NEKO]

For political reasons and also flanker have long range capability, eastern region lacking infrastructure, equipment and AFB compared to western region.

I don't think our flanker will be enough to make Australia ketar-ketir.

 

[Lordimperator]

You can get EX with PW but you have to spend money more to certified it.

fighter for papua?
Boramae, Rafale, FA50 ?

Against RAAF F35? Rafale and boramae

 

[Mandala]

From Airspace Review.

 

[JATOSINT]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1474703331045957632

 

[Chestnut]

why it sounds like TNI is being forced to buy Rafale???
looks like it's not just the US that doesn't agree about SU35, but Indonesian government also disagree

Because they are, they're just not going to admit it publicly due to political reasons.

The only fighter that they made abundantly clear for the longest time now is the Block 70/72V. With the second choice being the the F-15E/EX or more FA-50's. Simply put, the TNI knows that the Rafale would be a complete detriment to their operational tempo more so than the Sukhois already in service. All the bells and whistles that the F3R provides means fuck all if you still need at least another 10 years AFTER delivery in order to reach FOC for it, let alone being able to conduct heavy MRO by themselves instead of sending them to back to France, not to mention that French ordnance costs A LOT more than whatever Raytheon produces due to economy of scale.

The Air Force isn't stupid, they just know that in Indonesia, user preferences/requirements takes a back seat to political considerations.

The only people that wants the Rafale is just Prabowo and people in parliament that stands to benefit from money from this deal. The fact the SMI has been very reluctant to approve the funds that Prabowo wants is pretty indicative of that.

I genuinely won't be surprised if the Rafales end up as hangar queens because Prabowo cares more about his own image and ego than he does about maintaining a functioning Air Force.

 

[HellFireIndo]

Honestly, I was always in favor of more F-16V and modernization of the rest than getting just a handful of F-15EX. As for the Rafale plan, getting KF-21 makes more sense in the long run tbh (to fill the medium fighter quota), if we can seriously commit to it, rather than introducing a new platform, logistics, and MRO "supply chain" we cannot maintain efficiently. Prioritizing political considerations over a rational approach always mess up our policymaking process, overcomplicating everything and giving us an abortion of an end-product.

(Yeah, I have been resurrected)

 

[JATOSINT]

Honestly, I was always in favor of more F-16V and modernization of the rest than getting just a handful of F-15EX. As for the Rafale plan, getting KF-21 makes more sense in the long run tbh (to fill the medium fighter quota), if we can seriously commit to it, rather than introducing a new platform, logistics, and MRO "supply chain" we cannot maintain efficiently. Prioritizing political considerations over a rational approach always mess up our policymaking process, overcomplicating everything and giving us an abortion of an end-product.

(Yeah, I have been resurrected)

Don't forget to weigh the fact that KF-21 is still an experimental fighter

It is still prone to delays, substandard performance, etc, ---> bigger risk

 

[Indos]

Don't forget to weigh the fact that KF-21 is still an experimental fighter

It is still prone to delays, substandard performance, etc, ---> bigger risk

The fact that we only have approved foreign loan about 1.1 billion USD for MRCA program. This is the program for 2020-2024. This is what should be the focus. There is unlikely first, second, or third batch like what Alman hopes, especially not during unpredictable future economic situation we have after Omicron emerges. Next administration can make another different order as they have their own thinking on what fighter best to buy under their term.

So base on that money, what kind of fighter that can make full squadron for former F 5 squadron ? At least it should be around 11-12 just like the number we get from SU 35 order. We get both embargo from USA and EU in the past, not only USA, so buying Rafale is not a diversification move. While buying Russian is not an option anymore after CATSAA regime.

We get embargo right after USSR collapse in 1991, so as long competition between USA and his new rival, China, still exist, we are not likely to get embargo from USA. Even USA helps Indonesia invade Christian majority country, East Timor, during the heat of cold war. Ours and US interest is alligned in SCS. USA needs Indonesia as important country in ASEAN to balance China power. It will be long rivalry since China is not USSR which has wrong economic policy since the start of cold war.

What will happen after that (2025-2029) will let to new administration to decide. I doubt Prabowo will win in next election, so we will likely have a leader that has different point of view compared to Prabowo point of view. KF 21 so far has met the expectation and current development shows it is ahead of previous schedule, better assessment about the plane performance inshaAllah can be gotten in next administration after flight test data are taken. For the mean time, we have to focus on that 1.1 billion USD foreign loan approval.

 

[JATOSINT]

The fact that we only have approved foreign loan about 1.1 billion USD for MRCA program. This is the program for 2020-2024. This is what should be the focus. There is unlikely first, second, or third batch like what Alman hopes, especially not during unpredictable future economic situation we have after Omicron emerges. Next administration can make another different order as they have their own thinking on what fighter best to buy under their term.

So base on that money, what kind of fighter that can make full squadron for former F 5 squadron ? At least it should be around 11-12 just like the number we get from SU 35 order. We get both embargo from USA and EU in the past, not only USA, so buying Rafale is not a diversification move. While buying Russian is not an option anymore after CATSAA regime.

We get embargo right after USSR collapse in 1991, so as long competition between USA and his new rival, China, still exist, we are not likely to get embargo from USA. Even USA helps Indonesia invade Christian majority country, East Timor, during the heat of cold war. Ours and US interest is alligned in SCS. USA needs Indonesia as important country in ASEAN to balance China power. It will be long rivalry since China is not USSR which has wrong economic policy since the start of cold war.

What will happen after that (2025-2029) will let to new administration to decide. I doubt Prabowo will win in next election, so we will likely have a leader that has different point of view compared to Prabowo point of view. KF 21 so far has met the expectation and current development shows it is ahead of previous schedule, better assessment about the plane performance can be gotten in next administration after flight test data are taken. For the mean time, we have to focus on that 1.1 billion USD foreign loan approval.

1. CMIIW, the 1.1 billion is this year's PSP, not the whole fighter procurement budget/PSP for 2020-2024

2. How can you say Rafale is not a diversification move (oc assuming it is one of the considerations) while you also mentioned the history of TNI being embargoed by RUS and US, and now we are being targeted by CAATSA----> It is better to have more than one option

3. Indo-US interests on SCS issue are not completely aligned, Jakarta does not want to get caught up in US aggressiveness towards china (and vice versa). For example, remember when we reject their request to host P-8?

 

[Chestnut]

3. Indo-US interests on SCS issue are not completely aligned, Jakarta does not want to get caught up in US aggressiveness towards china (and vice versa). For example, remember when we reject their request to host P-8?

Keep in mind that Dassault did withheld parts for the ROCAF's fleet of Mirage 2000s after being asked to by the PRC.

 

[Indos]

1. CMIIW, the 1.1 billion is this year's PSP, not the whole fighter procurement budget/PSP for 2020-2024

2. How can you say Rafale is not a diversification move (oc assuming it is one of the considerations) while you also mentioned the history of TNI being embargoed by RUS and US, and now we are being targeted by CAATSA----> It is better to have more than one option

3. Indo-US interests on SCS issue are not completely aligned, Jakarta does not want to get caught up in US aggressiveness towards china (and vice versa). For example, remember when we reject their request to host P-8?

PSP is for MRCA program. MRCA program is only 1.1 billion USD (total foreign loan approval) and it is for 2020-2024. Just see the Airmen video. This is (1.6 billion USD) what has been approved by Bappenas and shown by Air Force presentation in early 2021 and then SMI slash it further into 1.1 billion USD according to AH.

EU Not to Renew Arms Embargo on Indonesia | Arms Control Association

www.armscontrol.org

Yup of course we are not fully ally of USA, the same thing like what happen during Soeharto regime. We are not like Singapore or Australia even during Soeharto regime. We still have independent stance for many issues like Palestinian and others and never want to be like Singapore or Philippine. Regardless of that our position is vital to withstand China power and we are likely to do that but will not do thing like Australia do to China. Even India who has real conflict with China still has good trading relation until now with China. USA understand our position as well, the same thing USA understand India who still buy S 400 from Russia. Indonesia is heavy weight country in Asia Pacific with is expected to be top ten nominal GDP country in 2030.

 

[Indos]

This the year 2020-2024 is clearer in here. This for domestic acquisition for Air Force.

 

[Indos]

Bappenas only approve 20.7 billion USD defense procurement for 2020-2024 ( in which large majority will be financed by foreign loan). The news I believe you all know. That is for total procurement ( foreign and domestic).

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Rabu, 23 Jun 2021 17:19 WIB

Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (PPN/Bappenas) Suharso Monoarfa buka-bukaan pemerintah menganggarkan belanja militer sebesar US$ 20,7 miliar atau Rp 298,08 triliun (kurs Rp14.400). Anggaran ini berlaku untuk 2020-2024 mendatang.

Translation :

Minister of National Development Planning (PPN/Bappenas) Suharso Monoarfa, said transparently that the government has budgeted military spending of US$ 20.7 billion or Rp. 298.08 trillion (exchange rate of Rp. 14,400). This budget is valid for 2020-2024.

Bappenas Ungkap Belanja Militer 2020-2024 Hampir Rp 300 T

Menteri PPN/Kepala Bappenas Suharso Monoarfa buka-bukaan pemerintah menganggarkan belanja militer sebesar US$ 20,7 miliar atau Rp 298,08 triliun.

finance.detik.com

March 2021

The breakdown for foreign loan approval (2020-2024) is 8.6 billion USD for Air Force, 7.5 billion USD for Navy, and 4.4 billion USD for Army. Just see the Airmen video. You can see domestic acquisition as well which is financed with domestic loan. MRCA is 1.6 billion USD, but AH said SMI only approve 1.1 billion USD.