The fact that we only have approved foreign loan about 1.1 billion USD for MRCA program. This is the program for 2020-2024. This is what should be the focus. There is unlikely first, second, or third batch like what Alman hopes, especially not during unpredictable future economic situation we have after Omicron emerges. Next administration can make another different order as they have their own thinking on what fighter best to buy under their term.
So base on that money, what kind of fighter that can make full squadron for former F 5 squadron ? At least it should be around 11-12 just like the number we get from SU 35 order. We get both embargo from USA and EU in the past, not only USA, so buying Rafale is not a diversification move. While buying Russian is not an option anymore after CATSAA regime.
We get embargo right after USSR collapse in 1991, so as long competition between USA and his new rival, China, still exist, we are not likely to get embargo from USA. Even USA helps Indonesia invade Christian majority country, East Timor, during the heat of cold war. Ours and US interest is alligned in SCS. USA needs Indonesia as important country in ASEAN to balance China power. It will be long rivalry since China is not USSR which has wrong economic policy since the start of cold war.
What will happen after that (2025-2029) will let to new administration to decide. I doubt Prabowo will win in next election, so we will likely have a leader that has different point of view compared to Prabowo point of view. KF 21 so far has met the expectation and current development shows it is ahead of previous schedule, better assessment about the plane performance can be gotten in next administration after flight test data are taken. For the mean time, we have to focus on that 1.1 billion USD foreign loan approval.