As I mentioned earlier. Satellites had been used in an "attempt" to find the
Ranger (a WW2 era carrier), the result is Hawaii got "bombed" multiple times and the Ranger safely gets back to port. The amount of accumulated institutional knowledge the US navy has gained since then in EMCON and general spoofing has increased since then. So there's every reason to believe that yes, US navy of the 21st century will fare better than the Ranger in 1986.
As for submarines, its either a flight of MH-60R Romeo above them or Virginias back on their asses.
If a missile is launched (probably Kalibr), US satellites, military and civilian WILL detect and triangulate those.
NASA's FIRMS are known to detect fires big and small, and missile lauch does generate quite an amount of IR signature
Fire Information for Resource Management System
firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov
And once the general search area has been known. This, will come to visit in mere minutes. Maybe not scary for us sitting in our bench, scary and pretty sorry for the guys on the receiving end in a barrel under the sea. Remember, in those airspace the only one that will fly is US's. In other words, the Kalibr carrying submarine is alone with swarms of US aviation on top. They will not like it.
In peacetime, the standard E-2D that a CVN carries is 5, in wartime could be more than that, and there's no guarantee that a CVN will operate alone. It's not rare to have multiple CSG groupings like we saw in Desert storm (against a country with no Navy).
image: task force Zulu 1991.
A constant flight of 4-5 AEW&C is not a problem. And again depending on geography USAF AWACS and other intelligence gathering assets flying from allied airbase will ease the burden. And again, this is the US, their intelligence gathering are a league of its own. With satellites constellation above, human intelligence that is proven accurate in predicting Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Do YOU know that AWACS can detect and tracked both air and surface targets (periscopes) ? lol
In other words any opposing submarine will be blind once they enter they designated operating area, not only Russian but actually everyone. They can't raise their communication periscope because the threat of US aviation and to be honest not many US opponents has nuclear attack submarine that could combat dive for eternity, in the end they'll have to surface and probably die. That includes the silent (for 1980s standard) blackhole submarine.
I mean it's not like Russia is good at hiding anything, from officers killed in Ukraine to Moskva everyone knows how good are their OPSEC and EMCON.
Now that long range cruise missile are known vulnerable against US navy defensive rings, the usual boo hoo will come with their secret weapons, the ballistic and glide missile now that plasma stealth are known bunk.
As if they forgot that ASBM has its own limitations and many of those are not yet proven and/or matured. The Chinese unveiled the DF-21D ASBM back in 2011 and guess what, this is the 2020s and we recently figured out that China is still testing those ASBM in their ranges, moral of the story ? announcements =/= it works.
ASBM hasits achilless heel, that is its kill chain. The biggest issue here is actually the simplest of things, looking for what they're firing at. There are thousands of ships sailing the modern ocean and onboard ASBM sensors has no way to tell what they are seeing. Coastal systems (radars) has no way to tell if the ships they're looking at are tankers or aircraft carriers.
, that is unless you believe the usual physics defying explanations that comes from the same members again and again.
And because there's no way for radars to know if what its looking at is a tanker or a warships, the US navy could easily rigged any barges at sea to spoof radar based surveillance system.
Spoofing not only adding complexity to shore based radars, it will definetly add an even more significant hurdles and stress to ASBMs equipped with radar seekers, which because of the size and shape limitations could only accommodate radars with a tiny fraction than than land based system.
So forgot the "ASBM can manuver" shit, you can't even tell what you're shooting at. And this is a bigger hurdles for a country that fails to kill a SINGLE Ukrainian HIMARS.
During the 1971 Indo-Pak war, the Indian navy modifies its frigates to emit radio chatter of that of an aircraft carrier, fooling an incoming PAF air attack. So what's the chance here that the even more sophisticated US military spoof a barge with radio and IR signature from that of an aircraft carrier. Or even active electronic attacks and decoy.
this thing radiate the same RCS as a warship.
Both radar and satellite based surveillance has been known to be defeated by the US, so what options are there left ?