TR Air-Force TF-X KAAN Fighter Jet

[Rooxbar]

I think all of this is just an sensationalist overreaction. We don't know the terms of agreement and speculations about how the Chinese wholesale own Pakistan as a country is a childish oversimplification. China does try to get its hands on info on critical projects via espionage and they're really good at it, but we have no idea what we're offering Pakistan to be able to conclude that it is worth stealing. Azerbaijan, Pakistan and any other country will have things to contribute to KAAN (if Lockheed Martin can use the helping hand of Norway and Denmark, we can use the helping hand of even 5 million strong nations, and this can happen via outsourcing of bulk manufacturing of less significant parts, and that's only one example, apart from other countries being able to help in procuring raw materials, which can have huge bottlenecks.)

But I do understand why this overreaction exists. Pakistan is not in a good condition, and many don't trust our bureaucracy to be competent enough to think of and put in place the required protections against espionage from the Chinese, and we can't also be sure that our foreign relations bureaucrats have gotten the explicit green light from U.S. in terms of further engine procurement in case of Pakistani involvement. Heck, I don't even know if this news will come as a complete surprise to Americans or not.

Also, you can have your critical opinions of Pakistani immigrants (which I share also), but understand that on a sentimental and idealized level there's this idea of friendship (among Pakistanis looking from afar at Turkey) that you could at least try to keep the illusion of, but it does worry me that we are making all of the influential diaspora lobbies of U.S. unite in their enmity of Turkey. Like why should we create an atmosphere and an image in India's mind for them to see it necessary to come and do military exercises with Greece for god's sake. Like there should have been no reason for that.

 

[Xenon54]

I was so optimistic for this project after the recent developments but they once again managed to kill those hopes...

Well, back to square one, dont follow, just be happy if something good comes out of it, if anything comes out of it that is...

Congrats to Pakistan for findig a clever way to pay China their debts.

 

[Heartbang]

We should give them an industrial work package that benefits us and keep the costs in check. This way Pakistan will also earn some money. Turkiye should also offer the right to priority purchase after Turkiye.

They should share some nuclear expertise in return if you catch my drift.

 

[Heartbang]

but it does worry me that we are making all of the influential diaspora lobbies of U.S. unite in their enmity of Turkey. Like why should we create an atmosphere and an image in India's mind for them to see it necessary to come and do military exercises with Greece for god's sake. Like there should have been no reason for that.

Also having the Indian lobby on board won't make much of a difference. The damage enacted upon via diasporas are already as big as it is.

As for the Indian Navy, I wouldn't worry about it.

 

[cr33pt3d]

They should share some nuclear expertise in return if you catch my drift.

I always thought that we don't need Pakistani help on that matter, i guess if needed we can develop such weapons, even more when i look at the CENK etc. the only issue with Pakistani Nukes is the payload is rather modest compared to others between 5-40 KT.

Pakistani Nuclear Forces

www.atomicarchive.com

 

[Huelague]

View attachment 59865 View attachment 59866 View attachment 59867
They have neither the money nor the technology, their international relations are bad, they have embargoes with the west, their backs to the west, what is our aim to include them in the project when they do us more harm than good?
View attachment 59868
I'm sorry, but the same goes for Azerbaijan, no matter how many bro countries there are, they have nothing to contribute to the project.

That’s a perfect example. Remember how the West looked and still look at us. Arrogance and condescending is not our business.

 

[Ahlatshah]

There are a lot of overreactions I see. None of us know the terms of agreement and obviously PAF will not get F110 Kaan either. Is anyone thinking we will give them the source codes of Kaan to anybody? Moreover, Pakistan is a huge country with a nuclear weapons, yes they are failed today but again none of us know what will become of them in 10 years. Greece was an economically failed state 10 years ago, but now they are buying arms like crazy and they found money one way or another.

US has never apply on embargo on engines to us so far. If they do, the reason will not be the Pakistan, that means we will not get F16s either. In that case, we will have to go AL41F until our engine is ready. So chill out.

All kind of independence comes at a price. That fighter project will be accomplished and there is no turning back.

 

[dBSPL]

The export of combat aircraft, which creates a 50-year industrial bond, involves the difficulty of entry into this field in parallel with the rate of 'Reward'. It is not enough just to have military doctrines, technology and system engineering. In particular, this field is an area of direct political struggle. You need not only political power but also strong financial means. In short, the two or three countries that dominate the market in this area, one of which is a superpower and the other is its successor, are the countries with which you will compete. And this is an area where you are entering from scratch, where you have never existed before, except for under-license production for Lockheed. Let me write more clearly, the suggestions of friends who say that we should have the same conditions as the UK etc are flattering, but I think we are not at that point.

So, You have to make your package attractive so that you can turn industrial cooperation into political power.

TAI facilities are planned for two aircraft per month. Let's stretch it upwards and revise it to 3 aircraft per month. We will probably participate in a lot of tenders in the 2030s. And just think the industrial collaborations that is offered in big tenders(over 70-80 ACs), around the world (excl. Middle east bc of lack of industrial infrastructure) High production volumes are important for us to recover the cost of the project in a shorter time, and to quickly turn a technical asset into political power.Also, TAI's work does not end with KAAN's serial production, there are mountains of projects in the next 50 years.All those military projects and planning aside, If we don't see a corporate spin-off, the main production weight will have to shift to the targeted civilian passenger narrowbody and maybe later widebody aircraft.

Let me go back to Pakistan. The minimum number of aircraft Pakistan could be acquire is between 80-100. This really has nothing to do with the economy. This is about their balance of power in the region. The people of Pakistan were not more prosperous than they are today when Pakistan was incurring costs, both political and other, many times higher than they should have been in terms of some of the infrastructure and industrial acquisition issues related to nuclear balance. Or starting to JF-17 journey.

Each country has different realities and risk factors. For example, if KSA or UAE invests in this aircraft, the minimum number of aircraft it would want to buy starts in the 60s. And this aircraft will definitely be chosen by one of the Gulf countries, whether this number will be higher or not depends on the developments we will see in the next few years. Before it has even made its first flight, it seems to have probably achieved a x2 ratio. So one plane for TAF, one plane for export. There is no reason why this should not be x3 or even x5. However, in order to reach these production numbers, it could be usefull to examine Lockheed's industrial models for international production.

Spoiler: F-16 productions outside US

F-16 production is split over 5 different production lines in as many different countries: Fokker in The Netherlands, Sabca in Belgium, Samsung in Korea, Turkish Aircraft Industries in Turkey and the Forth Worth production line in the US. The Forth Worth production line has changed name twice over the years as General Dynamics was acquired by Lockheed, which then merged with Martin into Lockheed Martin Aero. A total of 4428 F-16s have been produced at the time of writing (February 2010), the vast majority of which on the Fort Worth production line: 3501 airframes, or roughly 79%).

Construction of the YF-16 prototypes and the Full Scale Development aircraft was done on the Fort Worth production line. When volume production started for the first customers (USAF and the European Participating Air Forces), two European production lines were involved as well, as part of a compensation package. Both SABCA in Belgium and Fokker in the Netherlands produced parts (both for European and USAF airframes), and were responsible for the assembly of the European F-16s: SABCA for Belgian and Danish F-16s, Fokker for Dutch and Norwegian F-16s. Sabca produced a total of 222 airframes (covering roughly 5%) and Fokker produced 300 airframes (covering 7%).

In 1988, Turkish Aircraft Industries started building F-16s for the Turkish Air Force, and later TAI also produced F-16s for the Egyptian Air Force. A total of 277 F-16s have been built by TAI so far, representing 6% of the total fleet.

In 1995, a fifth and final production line started building F-16s: Samsung in South Korea produced a total of 128 F-16aircraft for the RoKAF. Samsung accounts for 3% of total F-16 production.

F-16 aircraft production lines - F-16.net

www.f-16.net

Fokker - 300 Airframes
TAI (TUSAŞ) - 277 Airframes
Sabca - 222 Airframes
KAI - 128 Airframes
Now I think there's a production line opening under TATA. (edit: This project did not materialize, thanks to @Heartbang for info)

Actually I don't mean opening final assembly lines in different parts of the world. JSF's supply chain could also be a good example. I mean, if your marketing model is a "joint fighter", Let them embrace the KAAN, let them feel KAAN belong to 'all of' us.

 

[Heartbang]

Now I think there's a production line opening under TATA.

I heard that plan has been canceled after Indian air force selected Rafale's.

 

[boredaf]

Greece was an economically failed state 10 years ago, but now they are buying arms like crazy and they found money one way or another.

Okay, this comparison is so wrong I wish I could give it an "exceptionally wrong" award.

Greece is part of the biggest economic zone on the planet, they didn't find money "one way or the other", they were backed by EU all the way to the hilt. And one of the reasons for that, and the reason why they are modernizing their military is us. EU will back them because they can use them against us, just like they did before. Because EU as a whole is rich beyond our dreams right now.

Pakistan does not have anything like EU supporting it. Only country that is willing to support them in a same manner is China and they are even less benevolent than EU. China only cares about China and they fuck over every country that is indebted to them one way or the other.

I would rather not sell Kaan at all, just like China does with J-20, than sell it countries that are in the pockets of our potential enemies.

Edit: To help with my point, last time I checked, Greece still owed about 300 billion euros to EU. Nobody is going to give anything close to that to Pakistan while they are on everyone's shit list.

 

[Ahlatshah]

Okay, this comparison is so wrong I wish I could give it an "exceptionally wrong" award.

Greece is part of the biggest economic zone on the planet, they didn't find money "one way or the other", they were backed by EU all the way to the hilt. And one of the reasons for that, and the reason why they are modernizing their military is us. EU will back them because they can use them against us, just like they did before. Because EU as a whole is rich beyond our dreams right now.

Pakistan does not have anything like EU supporting it. Only country that is willing to support them in a same manner is China and they are even less benevolent than EU. China only cares about China and they fuck over every country that is indebted to them one way or the other.

I would rather not sell Kaan at all, just like China does with J-20, than sell it countries that are in the pockets of our potential enemies.

Edit: To help with my point, last time I checked, Greece still owed about 300 billion euros to EU. Nobody is going to give anything close to that to Pakistan while they are on everyone's shit list.

Thank you for you lesson, I didnt know money come to Greece from EU until you say so, much appreciated!

It was just an example. Let me give you our example. About 40 years ago, we borrowed just 2 million (2.000.000) USD from Luxemburg, like a company not a country. Our people had to brought bread via ration those days. Nobody gave us money that exceed our GDP like Greece, but Ozal came out and changed everything. Now we are making almost all kind of weapons.

All I am trying to say, we dont know the future. It is normal up and downs for the countries and we are talking about at least ten years later on. May be Pakistan getting their legs together, may be not. And I am confident we will not give anything to anybody free of charge.

 

[godel44]

My ideal partners for Kaan are Azerbaijan and Qatar. Qatar could contribute a lot financially and can be a good buyer, too.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

I love that Azerbaijan is included in our MMU regardless of the significance of their input, I'm not so sure about Pakistan though, Mainly because of the looming instability that's threatening it.

 

[Nilgiri]

While I understand your point quite well. I and many others still don't think including Pakistan into the project is necessary at this moment. Let's just say Pakistan can join in 2040.

Why do we need to include Pakistan now and not later. The very move to include Pakistan into the project now is the same as giving the senate reasons and excuses to postpone the sale of F110.

Do you really think that the US senate won't use any sand grain of excuse to hinder and prevent the sale of those engines ? They're not rational and like so many others pointed out Pakistan already has JF17 and a supplier to those jets. But where do we get our jets ?

Pakistan as many has pointed out area country dependent of China, UAE, KSA their economy hasn't developed for a long time @Nilgiri can tell you.

I could keep on going and you could probably as well.

We have to be smart about some of these decisions and stupidity is unfortunately what we seem to be having all day long.

well I for one still consider Hürjet more important than Kaan, so I hope we get at least 80-100 of them and we keep this project to ourselves.

I have little to add to anmdt comment earlier. Strategic projects should not be run based on "hope" w.r.t parties external to you.

If there is a clear segmented plan that is not revealed now then we will have to give it time and discuss later. If this is nebulous stuff instead, then it is cause for concern like it would be for any country at the current juncture of its 5th gen project with much left to do.

The economy of Pakistan is just downstream phenomenon to its public trust in its establishment (a deep conflict of priorities and realities faced by each and which ideologies add to this separation even more). Folks wanting to read more on the deeper layers can read the Imran Khan thread for example where Saiyan has given a fairly deep account of it.

That will not be addressed any time soon as the establishment has only indicated it will double down on current system for foreseeable future....and simply put they have all the guns and the high ground to make it so.

The financial capability is sequestered in the establishment and few elite and the burden socialized on the large population basically. As one of my Pakistani friends puts it "there is still long way to go in the march to achieving North Korea"... i.e the degree a militarised elite can dictate and enforce on the larger population in peculiar authoritarian motte and bailey and serf system adopted.

So Turkish establishment can decide to make a call on the former w.r.t its interests, that is its prerogative just like the US did so in the cold war and then the Chinese increasingly. i.e larger economy only has so much relevance in the end w.r.t what a country establishment can elect to pursue and allot the financial backing for it (i.e the degree it would take for Pakistani economy to contract to have an impact on defence spending to put it another way).

Or it can announce nominal stuff and adopt realpolitik wait and see behind that. Something I would do in their shoes.

We will only really know giving time and actions to play out past words on the surface anyway.

The cost on Pakistani larger population will just endure and worsen and the results of any later blowback from their insular establishment's policy creating severe paralysis and even reversal in the limited economy and basic living condition is hard to predict right now.

With regards to 5th gen aircraft, the precarious state of the internal situation of Pakistan governs some part of decision by the Chinese to offer the FC-31 "at most" and keep J-20 close to its chest. Even here w.r.t FC-31, it will be very limited cooperation on capability ToT with the Pakistanis is what I have been told by Pakistanis in the know and active in this discussion.

Similar to infra+construction being basis for CPEC loans rather than actual export factories....China invests what it sees as best ROI for it first even within a "Friendship" agreement....and certainly does not involve anything that carries significant security risk (or core economic IP in the CPEC equivalent)...... to strategic project (there is frequent American presence in Pakistan Airforce bases for example for end use weapon and system monitoring and there is not a non-zero level of Pakistan-US defence relationship).

Maybe Turkiye in its MMU ecosystem develops domestic tier and export tier similarly for strategic programs to limit exposure of critical elements while harnessing an export demand and balanced strategic cooperation dividend perceived....and maybe this announcement will be first part of that developing over time too, I guess lets see. Everyone looking to hedge their bets behind the scenes increasingly in today's geopolitical world generally.

 

[TsumugiShirogane]

The decision to include Pakistan itself is a telling sign about the situation of the project. Now that F110's are off the table, things are going to turn real ugly from 2028 onward. The serial production of the jet with domestic engines, which can challenge the JSF out on the sky, isn't happening til 2045+. With the economy and demographics as is, yeah. Dark times ahead.

 

[Cabatli_TR]

One of the main goals of independent defense industry is to end our intellectual property and operational dependence to the outside. In this regard, it is our most vital issue to sell our platforms to friendly countries solely for our own benefits. If we reject some of big Muslim countries, which are our natural markets in order not to anger West in this regard, then who will we sell these systems? To what extent did they care about Turkiyes objection when they sold Scalp missiles to Greece or when they established a base in Dedeağaç or formed an alliance with PYD terrorists ? so Freedom will have to be realized not only at the platform level but also in a mental sense . Adjusting our foreign policy in order not to anger the Turk enemy lobbies which were influential in the US Congress, cannot be evaluated under the scope of freedom in this context because no matter what we do, they will always use even our existance as a reason of hostility in US political system.

The probability of Kaan having a big Western partner or customer is almost not possible. In this case, we are approaching times when we will decide scope and depth of our strategic relations with all our friends by using our technological instruments witout thinking approval of others and if necessary, we will even change the status quo the regions in our favor (Karabakh and Libya wars). This situation will directly harm Western benefits indeed and they will try to threaten us with different instruments but no steps will be taken before these calculations are done.

As for embargo, as I said, in the current conjuncture, opening a new embargo page against Turkiye will damage interests of the West in the region in this climate so they cant take this risk. Probably F110 engines will also be produced in Turkiye. The most they can do is prevent the sale of engines to the Kaans to be sold to Pakistan in future but as they know, we are in the last 10 years when they can threaten us with embargo rhetorics. This process will probably end in 2033/34 and they know very well that at the end of this process, Turkiye will have domestic engines like China. It doesn't make sense to take risks for processes that they cant stop so I think they will enter into a race to make more cooperation contracts with Turkiye and to get a bigger share from the market that will be created. In this process, they will learn to digest new World order in order to use Turkiye's influence for their own benefit. Turkiye will also form a new structure with TFX KAAN under its own influence. Next to the Western(US/Europe/S.Korea), Russian and Chinese tech block, a new block of countries using Turkish aircrafts will be created as well. KAAN is such a platform that will create its own sphere of influence and unity among countries operating them. Turk block will symbolize KAAN technological unity of mostly composed of Turk-Muslim majority countries, some of which will be oil-rich, one is a nuclear power. In addition, the countries that will operate Kaan will be those who are willing to deeply cooperate with Turkiye not only for industry but also in political area and geopolitic problems. Otherwise, these aircrafts will never be allowed to be sold to a country that may cause problems in the future.

 

[Huelague]

My ideal partners for Kaan are Azerbaijan and Qatar. Qatar could contribute a lot financially and can be a good buyer, too.

Malaysia.

 

[TheInsider]

HİK uçakları milli sistemlerle uçacak

Havadan Erken İhbar ve Kontrol (HİK) Uçağı Modernizasyonu ve İş birliği Protokolü İmza Töreni, IDEF 2023’te gerçekleştirildi.

www.defenceturk.net

"Within the scope of the modernization project to be carried out under the coordination of the Presidency of Defence Industries, we will provide ASELSAN's systems such as IFF Mode 5 Responder, Karetta CRPA Antenna, Mission Computer Hardware to our aircraft".

Havelsan will probably be responsible for the software update. Havelsan contributed heavily to the Peace Eagle project.

https://www.havelsan.com.tr/en/sectors/defense-and-security/air/air-surveillance-systems/peace-eagle-aew-c-project

 

[MADDOG]

Turkish Aerospace Industries introduces concept OKU (Autonomous Wingman Concept)

Turkish Aerospace Industries is developing the Autonomous Wingman Concept (OKU), essentially a Turkish version of MUM-T (manned-unmanned teaming). This concept integrates piloted and unmanned aircraft to enhance air superiority, adapt to changing threats and increase operational efficiency. It involves forming flight formations and task forces for collaborative missions, using technologies like AI, autonomy and communication. The goal is to enhance pilot effectiveness, reduce risk and standardize this concept across multiple aerial platforms.

 

[Heartbang]

Turkish Aerospace Industries introduces concept OKU (Autonomous Wingman Concept)

Turkish Aerospace Industries is developing the Autonomous Wingman Concept (OKU), essentially a Turkish version of MUM-T (manned-unmanned teaming). This concept integrates piloted and unmanned aircraft to enhance air superiority, adapt to changing threats and increase operational efficiency. It involves forming flight formations and task forces for collaborative missions, using technologies like AI, autonomy and communication. The goal is to enhance pilot effectiveness, reduce risk and standardize this concept across multiple aircraft platforms.

The logo feels familiar.