Defense: French industry threatened by new competitors
South Korea, Turkey and Israel are formidable competitors for the French military-industrial complex, which has some weaknesses despite its strengths and its rank as the world's third largest arms exporter.
By Jean-Michel Bezat Published yesterday at 4:17 p.m., modified at 12:44 a.m.
Reading Time 4 min.
France proudly displays the success of what is commonly called the defense industrial and technological base (BITD):
4,000 companies working for the armed forces, 450 of which are considered strategic and 600 export in the wake of the giants Airbus, Dassault Aviation, Nexter, Naval Group, MBDA, Thales or Safran.
Born in the 1960s from the Gaullist ambition for independence, it produces almost all military equipment, preventing land, naval and air forces from having to buy it “off the shelf” from the Americans and other Europeans.
This ambition has a weakness, inherent to France's status as a middle power: its armies offering a limited outlet, the BITD must export to survive. And the Rafale weighs heavily with its Safran engines, its Thales electronics and its MBDA missiles: in 2022, the eighty Dassault combat aircraft sold to the United Arab Emirates represented two thirds of the 27 billion euros in exports from the country in this market, bringing it to third place in the world in 2022, behind the United States and Russia. Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers “The sale of Rafale to Saudi Arabia would be a success by default for the tricolor aircraft in the ruthless competition from arms dealers”
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France is single-product. Without the Rafale, it would be marginalized,” notes Marc Chassillan, arms engineer and defense consultant.
In decline in Europe, it is also increasingly dependent on countries in the Middle East. It struggles to sell frigates and submarines in a very competitive market. Its manufacturers have abandoned infantry equipment and no longer produce Leclerc tanks, an export failure. The Jaguar and Griffon armored vehicles, designed more for asymmetric conflicts (Afghanistan, Sahel, etc.), have only found a buyer in Belgium thanks to close military cooperation between Paris and Brussels.
Although the Caesar cannon is in high demand, Nexter cannot meet all requests.
A “plethoric offer”
In land weapons, “the global supply has become plethoric,” recalls Mr. Chassillan. Second-tier exporters are pointing the end of the barrel (United Arab Emirates, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, etc.),
but the historic heavyweights of the defense market are worried about more formidable competitors: South Korea, Turkey and Israel. “[These players] benefit from an upgrade of their products and uninhibited export control,” underlines the government’s 2023 report to Parliament on arms exports, while “intra-European competition does not weaken ". Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers The Caesar cannons, showcase of the war economy
When Poland ordered 1,000 K2 tanks, 500 K9 howitzers, hundreds of missiles and fifty FA-50 planes from South Korea in 2022, the industrialists of the Old Continent were surprised, without being able to respond. Neither the German Krauss-Maffei Wegmann nor the American General Dynamics were capable of delivering so many tanks, Leopard 2 and Abrams respectively. No more than Nexter Caesar or Airbus dozens of Eurofighter planes.
In a Europe which had ruled out the scenario of a high-intensity conflict for thirty years, industrial resources have atrophied.
South Korean industrialist Hanwha recalls that his country has been “ready for war” since the 1953 armistice with North Korea, seventy years of the Cold War when it was able to develop an arms industry. in the service of his conscription army, before setting out to conquer foreign markets with powerful state support. Seoul supplies equipment meeting NATO standards at competitive prices.
When you can have two K2s for the price of a Leopard 2, the choice is quickly made, summarizes Mr. Chassillan.
In 31st place among exporters in 2000, South Korea occupied 9th in 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and it is aiming for 4th in 2027. Read also: Article reserved for our Defense subscribers: “order books full, but arms sales which did not follow in 2022 »
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This export ambition is shared by Turkey [12th world exporter in 2022], notes Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), who is preparing a book on the geopolitics of armaments. The constitution of a BITD is a strategic sovereignty issue for Ankara too. The country also produces a lot for its mass army. Export guarantees him profitability, and he also wants to bite into the European market, like South Korea. »
An “exceptional contract raid”
Israel and its high-tech BITD also benefit from global rearmament. “It made an exceptional raid of contracts in 2023 and will gain several places in the world ranking”, of which it occupied 10th place in 2022, calculates Mr. Chassillan.
The Hebrew State notably sells its 155 mm Atmos howitzer, remotely operated turrets, anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft systems (sold to equip the German “shield”) or active protection of armored vehicles.
France retains its strong points: missiles, observation satellites, etc. Thales, which has just been strengthened by the acquisition of the American Imperva, remains a reference in cyber activities, and especially radars. The new entrants have also not reached the level of the Americans and Europeans in the motorization of combat aircraft. But France is lagging enormously behind in drones, in which Dassault and the general staff have long lost interest, while Turkey offers a complete range. Also read the interview: Article reserved for our subscribers François Lecointre, former chief of staff of the armed forces: “Naively, our societies thought that war was now archaic”
The general armaments delegation of the Ministry of the Armed Forces also admits that France has missed the “offset”, these compensations in local production and technology transfers. It has long favored employment on the national territory and has been reluctant to transfer knowledge to foreign clients, even though these concessions had become a necessary step to land large contracts.
Warsaw saw in the agreement with Seoul “the culmination of cooperation built over many years” by two countries worried about a withdrawal of the American protective umbrella. “It’s a win-win operation,” underlines Renaud Bellais, co-director of the Defense Observatory of the Jean Jaurès Foundation. Poland wants fast deliveries and local production; South Korea can draw on its enormous arms stocks and internationalize its industry. »
Delivery schedule
France has been evolving its doctrine for several years. Like the Americans' Foreign Military Sales, "a new logic of state-to-state strategic partnership is being put in place", with military, diplomatic and economic dimensions. , underlines Mr. Péria-Peigné,
citing Greece, India and the United Arab Emirates. It must make it possible to structure a long-term offer to sell several types of weapons to the same country (planes, helicopters, frigates, satellites, etc.), while remaining at the cutting edge of technology. “France will remain in the lead with a new range of equipment,” judges the IFRI researcher. Also read the report: Article reserved for our subscribers With its new drone school, the army wants to increase the number of operators within the regiments
The Russo-Ukrainian war brought to light a new, increasingly strong constraint: the delivery schedule and the availability of materials. “They tend to become central criteria” in the negotiation of contracts, repeats the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, to manufacturers.
Because the risk of marginalization is real. Of the 100 billion euros of arms purchases from European Union countries concluded between the start of the conflict in Ukraine and the summer of 2023, 78% were made to non-European manufacturers, with the Americans scooping them up. 63%, calculated Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations; of the 22% remaining to the Europeans, Paris only won 12%, or 2.5 billion euros.
Jean-Michel Bezat
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