TR Military Operations in Northern Iraq

[Kartal1]

Protests, collapse of government allowing pro-iranian groups to take over (less likely) or Iranian ballistic attacks forcing the autonomous region to turn to Iran (more likely) ?

While I will pass the first option I think the second scenario is possible.

Taking in account hlthay by the time of this happening Iran will have full control over the Iraqi Central Government we may conclude that the actions would be supported by them.

In this case for the Barzanis to survive and protect all the wealth and prosperity which they accumulated trough the decades they will want to push for independence. We know that Turkiye will never allow this and as I said above there is a compromising option for both sides. Federative or confederative option under the protection and laws of Turkiye. There are positives, but also negatives from this move. For sure a very dangerous situation, but I personally prefer it next to Iranian domination of the Middle East. It's just that the leash must be very tight. Barzanis are acting pragmatic in the last years if we don't count the show with the independence fiasco for the occasion of Masoud Barzani's retirement. We must encourage this pragmatic approach.

If it wasn't for the domestic political calculus, from what you say it seems possible to tear the reformist branch away from the traditionalist pro-Iranian branch through diplomacy / carrot and stick

Iran really outplayed TR in the middle east

With the risk of being lynched I want to express my opinion on the situation.

Abdullah Ocalan started this shit and he can be the one putting an end to PKK. He expressed his willingness of cooperating with the State and also expressed many times his dissatisfaction of the PKK leadership.

From Suleymaniye to Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo, his face is the symbol of the PKK no matter if traditionalist or reformist. If the symbol of this organization talks everybody will have to listen. He is an idol for them and I think he has the power to give us PKK on a plate for us to decide what we should do with it.

 

[YeşilVatan]

I think an immense buildup of cheap ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones is in order. I know Iranian rocketry is very good, but our technological and industrial base is better. We can catch up. We need to be able to do it both ways, cheap mass bombardment AND precision strikes.

Then we start funneling arms and funding to proxies. See what sticks.

 

[Kartal1]

I think an immense buildup of cheap ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones is in order. I know Iranian rocketry is very good, but our technological and industrial base is better. We can catch up. We need to be able to do it both ways, cheap mass bombardment AND precision strikes.

Then we start funneling arms and funding to proxies. See what sticks.

This would help us achieve some level of deterrence. What we lack compared to the Iranians are the militias.

We have double digit number of military bases in the north of Iraq. Their strength and coordinates are known while Iran operates "underground". They don't have military bases. They have ghosts.

I am very sorry we missed our chances with the Turkmen based on sectarianism. If we did what we had to do in 2001, then continued efforts and support the Turkmen now we wouldn't have needed to discuss at least the half of the problems we discuss, but unfortunately we were busy pleasing the US all these years.

 

[YeşilVatan]

This would help us achieve some level of deterrence. What we lack compared to the Iranians are the militias.

We have double digit number of military bases in the north of Iraq. Their strength and coordinates are known while Iran operates "underground". They don't have military bases. They have ghosts.

I am very sorry we missed our chances with the Turkmen based on sectarianism. If we did what we had to do in 2001, then continued efforts and support the Turkmen now we wouldn't have needed to discuss at least the half of the problems we discuss, but unfortunately we were busy pleasing the US all these years.

Early AKP rule cost this country a lot of lives, money and opportunities.

 

[Bozan]

While I will pass the first option I think the second scenario is possible.

Taking in account hlthay by the time of this happening Iran will have full control over the Iraqi Central Government we may conclude that the actions would be supported by them.

In this case for the Barzanis to survive and protect all the wealth and prosperity which they accumulated trough the decades they will want to push for independence. We know that Turkiye will never allow this and as I said above there is a compromising option for both sides. Federative or confederative option under the protection and laws of Turkiye. There are positives, but also negatives from this move. For sure a very dangerous situation, but I personally prefer it next to Iranian domination of the Middle East. It's just that the leash must be very tight. Barzanis are acting pragmatic in the last years if we don't count the show with the independence fiasco for the occasion of Masoud Barzani's retirement. We must encourage this pragmatic approach.

With the risk of being lynched I want to express my opinion on the situation.

Abdullah Ocalan started this shit and he can be the one putting an end to PKK. He expressed his willingness of cooperating with the State and also expressed many times his dissatisfaction of the PKK leadership.

From Suleymaniye to Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo, his face is the symbol of the PKK no matter if traditionalist or reformist. If the symbol of this organization talks everybody will have to listen. He is an idol for them and I think he has the power to give us PKK on a plate for us to decide what we should do with it.

I don't think you should be lynched for this opinion. I think Ocalan has passed away or is about to, as there has been a contact ban for a year or more now. But yes, the sooner the conflict ends the more cards TR will have in the middle east, otherwise Iran will dominate.

That being said, it would be political suicide for any party to attempt a such a process at the moment, which is a handicap. Unless it's Erdogan, he can do what he wants.

Also whoever the interlocutor, it should definitely not be the traditionalists or the ones on the Iran line. In Syria, it should try unite the opposition with the PKK side at least to dilute PKK and extreme elements in the opposition.

 

[Sanchez]

Something's cooking.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1750210546903785687

 

[Afif]

Something's cooking.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1750210546903785687

When something isn't cooking though? In ME something is always cooking.

 

[Bogeyman]

Something's cooking.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1750210546903785687

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1750248887481143728

The United States and Iraq will begin negotiations on the complete withdrawal of all American military presence in the country.

 

[YeşilVatan]

Biden backed off from Afghanistan, and now he abandonds Iraq. He must be very secure about his chances in the upcoming election. Serious question: how will they supply their meat shields around Kamışlı for example?

This bodes ill for us guys. I believe dislodging Iranian proxies will be a priority in the following years, even if we manage to crush PKK in Syria and Iraq both.

 

[Sanchez]

Biden backed off from Afghanistan

This is not entirely true. Plan was Trump admin's. He just followed it to the letter.

 

[YeşilVatan]

This is not entirely true. Plan was Trump admin's. He just followed it to the letter.

Objective reality may be just that, but American public thinks Biden is responsible, except maybe his most ardent supporters.

 

[Scott Summers]

I don't think you should be lynched for this opinion. I think Ocalan has passed away or is about to, as there has been a contact ban for a year or more now. But yes, the sooner the conflict ends the more cards TR will have in the middle east, otherwise Iran will dominate.

That being said, it would be political suicide for any party to attempt a such a process at the moment, which is a handicap. Unless it's Erdogan, he can do what he wants.

Also whoever the interlocutor, it should definitely not be the traditionalists or the ones on the Iran line. In Syria, it should try unite the opposition with the PKK side at least to dilute PKK and extreme elements in the opposition.

A federal state like that of the USA, Switzerland or Germany has their benefits and its far better to live in a federation than to see a new Safavid Empire dominating the region together with Israel and blocking our oil supplies and trade routes.

Risks of a federation:

1.- Every state has their own laws.
2.- Every state has her own flag.
3.- Every state has her own police.
4.- Every state has a governor.


Benefits:

1.- If the State of Trabzon want to build a new airport, they dont have to wait for green light from the President in Ankara. The governor of Trabzon is the King in Trabzon.
2.- If the State of Istanbul wants to kick Syrian refugees out, than they have the right to do that. Governor Ekrem Imamoglu could even build a wall around Istanbul.
3.- Seperatist terrorism could come to and end, because every State gets a reasonable volume of autonomy.
4.- One Constitution for all.
5.- Federal institutions for interstate cases like Federal Police, Federal Court, Federal Railways, Federal Bank etc.

 

[Sanchez]

Objective reality may be just that, but American public thinks Biden is responsible, except maybe his most ardent supporters.

I'd say it's more like 60/40 tbh but doesn't really matter. US public won't really care if they leave Syria, not a real point of contention.

This bodes ill for us guys. I believe dislodging Iranian proxies will be a priority in the following years

This I agree with. Even in the best case scenario, US leaves it all, keeps carriers in the Med for Israel and in Red Sea for convoys, and we try to go toe to toe with an emboldened Iran.

 

[YeşilVatan]

A federal state like that of the USA, Switzerland or Germany has their benefits and its far better to live in a federation than to see a new Safavid Empire dominating the region together with Israel and blocking our oil supplies and trade routes.

Risks of a federation:

1.- Every state has their own laws.
2.- Every state has her own flag.
3.- Every state has her own police.
4.- Every state has a governor.


Benefits:

1.- If the State of Trabzon want to build a new airport, they dont have to wait for green light from the President in Ankara. The governor of Trabzon is the King in Trabzon.
2.- If the State of Istanbul wants to kick Syrian refugees out, than they have the right to do that. Governor Ekrem Imamoglu could even build a wall around Istanbul.
3.- Seperatist terrorism could come to and end, because every State gets a reasonable volume of autonomy.
4.- One Constitution for all.
5.- Federal institutions for interstate cases like Federal Police, Federal Court, Federal Railways, Federal Bank etc.

Then in a moment of weakness (istanbul earthquake for example) the State of Kurdistan does a referandum for independence. US declares a no flight zone in the east and they are GONE. Access to Azerbaijan gone, any power projection into the fertile crescent gone, Tigris and Euphrates gone.

Think bro, think.

 

[Kartal1]

Very serious developments!

Today two trucks carrying supplies to the PKK passed again trough the same logistics corridor from Gara towards the village of Sergele. They were hit and destroyed in the previously emptied village of Mije.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1750233553659371760

After these developments PKK attacked Peshmerga control point close to the village of Sergele. After the initial attack they attacked the position with an RPG. There are wounded on both of the sides in results of the fighting.

KRG Interior statement:

"𝐀𝐝𝐝𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐊𝐊

Media affiliated with the PKK have falsely claimed that they were attacked by Peshmerga forces in Amedi district.

We clarify to the people of Kurdistan and all Kurdistanis around the world that PKK gunmen on 24 January 2024, tens of kilometres away from the Turkish border in the Amêdi region, without regard for the official and legal institutions of the region, infiltrated a Zerevani checkpoint and subsequently launched a rocket attack on it.

Zerevani Peshmerga forces defended themselves from their positions.

The PKK gunmen's actions align with a pattern of attacks and destabilizing activities, seeking to undermine the security and stability of the Kurdistan Region.

Unfortunately, they have become integral to regional plans challenging the sovereignty of Kurdistan.

Kurdistan Region will not be an arena for resolving regional conflicts and supports all peaceful efforts and initiatives to resolve issues and consolidate peace and security.

However, we reserve the right to defend our forces and will resolutely oppose any attempt to target the Kurdistan Region and its official institutions."

 

[Ryder]

Iran has numerous separatist problems.

Why arent we emboldening Southern Azerbaijanis to rise up against the Khomeini State.

Turkiye and Iran are going to clash in the future lets be honest. Right now Iran is getting the upper hand.

Whats with Turkish Islamists constantly cucking for Iranians? They are Sunnis and the Secratarian Iranian state will wipe them out when the time comes. We seen how Shia militias committed numerous atrocities against Sunnis in Iraq they justified it by saying they are Saddam supporters or Isis members.

Necmettin Erbakan was stupid for thinking Iran will be a great friend for Turkiye even including them in the D8.

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

Whats with Turkish Islamists constantly cucking for Iranians?

They have lost their identity and minds, they are like dogs looking for an owner. They are lost causes...

 

[Ryder]

They have lost their identity and minds, they are like dogs looking for an owner. They are lost causes...

Its hilarious seeing Turkish liberals, Turkish Islamists and Turkish Kemalists just cucking for someone. Turkish leftists cuck for Russia or China.

None of them want to put their nation first.

Its pathetic to be honest. They should stop trying to suck up to any nation regardless if its Saudi, Iran, Israel, EU and the USA.

They should put Turkiye first.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1750539330089627674

There was news that the USA would withdraw from Iraq and Syria

Pentagon officially announced that Iraq withdrawal talks will begin in the coming days

Iraq wants a definite period for withdrawal, the USA puts forward three factors independent of time:

•DAEŞ threat
•Operational and environmental requirements
•Capability levels of Iraqi security forces


The US withdrawal plan from Iraq has become official.

 

[Bozan]

Iran has numerous separatist problems.

Why arent we emboldening Southern Azerbaijanis to rise up against the Khomeini State.

Turkiye and Iran are going to clash in the future lets be honest. Right now Iran is getting the upper hand.

Whats with Turkish Islamists constantly cucking for Iranians? They are Sunnis and the Secratarian Iranian state will wipe them out when the time comes. We seen how Shia militias committed numerous atrocities against Sunnis in Iraq they justified it by saying they are Saddam supporters or Isis members.

Necmettin Erbakan was stupid for thinking Iran will be a great friend for Turkiye even including them in the D8.

There is no organization in southern Azerbaijan that is like the PKK or something, civilians are very disorganised which makes it easy to target dissidents and eliminate them quickly