While I will pass the first option I think the second scenario is possible.Protests, collapse of government allowing pro-iranian groups to take over (less likely) or Iranian ballistic attacks forcing the autonomous region to turn to Iran (more likely) ?
Taking in account hlthay by the time of this happening Iran will have full control over the Iraqi Central Government we may conclude that the actions would be supported by them.
In this case for the Barzanis to survive and protect all the wealth and prosperity which they accumulated trough the decades they will want to push for independence. We know that Turkiye will never allow this and as I said above there is a compromising option for both sides. Federative or confederative option under the protection and laws of Turkiye. There are positives, but also negatives from this move. For sure a very dangerous situation, but I personally prefer it next to Iranian domination of the Middle East. It's just that the leash must be very tight. Barzanis are acting pragmatic in the last years if we don't count the show with the independence fiasco for the occasion of Masoud Barzani's retirement. We must encourage this pragmatic approach.
With the risk of being lynched I want to express my opinion on the situation.If it wasn't for the domestic political calculus, from what you say it seems possible to tear the reformist branch away from the traditionalist pro-Iranian branch through diplomacy / carrot and stick
Iran really outplayed TR in the middle east
Abdullah Ocalan started this shit and he can be the one putting an end to PKK. He expressed his willingness of cooperating with the State and also expressed many times his dissatisfaction of the PKK leadership.
From Suleymaniye to Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo, his face is the symbol of the PKK no matter if traditionalist or reformist. If the symbol of this organization talks everybody will have to listen. He is an idol for them and I think he has the power to give us PKK on a plate for us to decide what we should do with it.