I've said it before, I'll say it again: Ukraine is not the best showcase to determine how suitable weapons systems are for Turkish Armed Forces. That conflict is fought basically without any side having air superiority. Any conflict we go in will probably not be an aerial tug-of war. It's going to be air dominance for either us or the enemy.
Let's consider the red teams in scenarios and how a hypothetical F-35 procurement will affect them. I'll grade it in terms of sustainability, impact, cost-effectiveness.
1- PKK in Iraq.
- Low sustainability due to F-35 maintenance being a horror show.
- Low impact due to existing aircraft adequately handling the job so far.
- Low cost-effectiveness because it's pricey.
2- PKK in Syria
- No sustainability due to US cutting spare parts or even locking software because they are allied to terrorists.
- Low impact due to existing aircraft adequately handling the job so far.
- Abysmal cost-effectiveness because Americans will never let us use it in that theatre anyways, billions for nothing.
3- Greece (including overflights and geopolitical pissing contest stuff)
- Low sustainability due to high probability of US embargos, also can be used to strong-arm Turkey into policy positions they wish.
- High impact because Greeks will at least be deterred by it. They at least won't have a "they weak now, attack!" moment, which is important against irrational actors such as the greek state.
- Moderate to high cost-effectiveness as even planes sleeping in the hangar serves the main purpose.
4- Iran proxies
- Moderate sustainability due to high probability of a strong US support in a hypothetical conflict.
- Moderate impact because existing aircraft mostly being adequate when dealing with militias, major upgrade on SEAD/DEAD, which is a serious increase in capabilities.
- Moderate cost-effectiveness. It gives us a solid capability, but for a lot of money.
5- US
So as you see, F-35's main function would not be over the battlefield, but to:
- Deter over-eager Greeks with reconquista fantasies (they absolutely exist and occupy high positions in the greek state).
- Do the heavy lifting whean SEAD'ing Iranian proxies.
- Acquisition of know-how from just using it. Then applying some aspects to KAAN, no need to reinvent wheel.
- Strengthening NATO ties. Yes, they are trying to partition our country. Yes, we have to play this game. No, we can't nuke DC, stop reading Metal Fırtına.
- Possibility of buying F-35Bs for TCG Anadolu. That ship deserves its fighter squadron.
See how little actual fighting factors into it?