Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Ryder]

I mean, how many Hez guys lost in those shootouts though, Scott? Funny you don't seem so interested in the side-by-side here, not that I guess Hezbollah's exactly going to put out press releases listing numbers of guys sent off to meet their virgins. I'm kinda figuring the body count's not something Hez shouldn't be touting as some victory, if they were to tally their own slain in the same engagements.

No serious person figured Israel wasn't going to lose people in a ground invasion. It'll be far more than 14 when the dust settles, what was it in '06, a hundred or so from memory? The country's ready and willing to do that in order to prevail, and bet your ass they're the ones who are going to be prevailing here. The ground invasions' needlessly dumb I feel, but they're going to come out on top in the end.

Insurgents or terrorist groups will always have heavy losses regardless because to them its all for the greater good even killing 1 soldier for them is a jackpot for them to utilise as propaganda. But for modern conventional armies the whole point is to minimise casualties the bigger the casualties the more demoralising it is.

USA despite winning battles they still occurred enormous casualties in Vietnam and the footages of bodybags was more than enough for the public to call it the quits and throw in the towel. Same story in Afghanistan.

 

[Saithan]

The X-band radar in Türkiye has most probably been used to relay information to Israel. So in a way it's working as intended. But I think it's important that we shut it down for as long as Israels campaign is continuing.

IMO it'd limit the brazen act of relentless airbombing, though some might argue why it wasn't shut down much earlier.

Are those missiles engages from Jordans soil or from Israel and Sea ?

 

[SilverMachine]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

We don't really know. Publically-available information, it would seem not, unless they get a re-supply of a bunch more U.S. bunker-busters and/or the MOAB type things it seems they don't have already. "Publically-available information" is kind of key though, every state has some secrets & aces up their sleeve. They don't acknowledge they're a nuclear power, I don't see why they'd have loose lips about whether or not they have capacity to hit underground stuff.

There's also Stuxnet type options, and that was years and years ago, you'd have to figure that program/research wasn't just put on ice and there's probably newer & more devastating versions of that stuff to work with.

I don't think they're gonna hit the nuclear sites, but wouldn't be at all surprised if they *could*. Whether that's oldschool with the boom-booms or something more surgical & sabotage-y. All-in all it's probably gonna be more "Joe Biden wants 'proportional'? Okay, 200 of our actually-capable missiles zoning in on whatever Guard bases are nearest Tehran" type of thing.

And Scott, wait, what? *Hezbollah* can afford to absorb losses but the IDF can't? I get your point about recruiting, that more low-level guys will take their place in time, that always happens. That neither means A) you don't bother killing them, or B) that the new guys are as effective/capable - training still takes time, and that's what these guys have been doing for years. The replacement guys never turn out to be as good, that goes for leadership as well. Al Qaeda still exists, Bin Laden's son's at the helm, and they're a nothing. The guy that's replacing Nasrallah in Hez is *no* Nasrallah and never will be. Nobody even talks about whoever took over ISIS/ISoI after al-Qurashi.

Hezbollah's also far smaller an organization than the IDF is. Your point about the vicious cycle of violence is absolutely on-point, but let's not pretend losing 14 guys, or even 1400, is going to break Israel's will or whatever. A lot of the public doesn't like Netanyahu, but they're all on the same page that Iran and their little brothers need to be dealt with.

 

[Afif]

We don't really know.

We do. Because it not about those weapons only. Israel doesn't have the platforms to deliver them. It would require strategic bombers. Israeli air force don't have them.

 

[SilverMachine]

Pretty sure larger fighter frames like the 15 can carry & deploy bunker-busters. Likely not the MOAB, but don't know enough about that one, but yeah, I guess if shit *really* kicks off and it gets existential for Israel the U.S. would work something out with them if that became necesssary - even delivering that larger one themselves to the target with a B2.

Frankly, there's probably other ways to shut down the program or delay it mucho-bigtime than simply atomizing the site, though. And it tends to be the exact type of shit the Israelis excel at, the unexpected.

 

[Scott Summers]

Hezbollah announces the destruction of 3 Merkava tanks in the town of Maroun al-Ras, southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile total media blackout in Israel. Its forbidden to mention Israeli KIA's.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841493076780437865

Capturing of a Mossad spy in Lebanon

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841488934821339386

 

[Scott Summers]

The oldest killed terrorist was 23 and the youngest babykiller was 17.

Netanyahu just sending young concripts to death. He will sacrifice everything to stay out the hands of the Israeli courts.

He would never send his son.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841617041280651282

 

[SilverMachine]

Where do you get this nonsense? The IDF personnel losses are *all over* Israeli media. There's no "blackout" or "forbidden" nature of reporting it.

Also, again, there's an edit button, and you're chronically double & triple posting again.

 

[satria]

Al-Qassam Brigades broadcasts scenes from the battles with the occupation forces in Rafah

 

[Soldier30]

The Israeli army demonstrated the use of UH-60A Yanshuf 3 helicopters and CH-53K King Stallion helicopters to evacuate the wounded. Both helicopters are American-made. In the video, the 669th Air Rescue and Evacuation Unit evacuates wounded soldiers from Lebanon. Initially, the unit rescued downed pilots behind the front line, but gradually the tasks expanded to evacuate soldiers. Let me remind you that Merkava Mk.IV tanks are currently on the border with Lebanon, and they may have already entered the adjacent territory.

 

[SilverMachine]

That's interesting about the Merkavas only just going in now. Of course we know the guys killed were reconnaissance/commando types so stands to reason they'd go in first, but yeah, it's been a couple days since this kicked off, you'd figure the tanks would have been rolling in before just now.

Sounds like another few dozen Hez guys went down in a Beirut strike, not much/any word on actual IDF achievements in the south yet though. Interested to find out what-and-who went boom for the IDF's human cost so far.

 

[Huelague]

The Israeli army demonstrated the use of UH-60A Yanshuf 3 helicopters and CH-53K King Stallion helicopters to evacuate the wounded. Both helicopters are American-made. In the video, the 669th Air Rescue and Evacuation Unit evacuates wounded soldiers from Lebanon. Initially, the unit rescued downed pilots behind the front line, but gradually the tasks expanded to evacuate soldiers. Let me remind you that Merkava Mk.IV tanks are currently on the border with Lebanon, and they may have already entered the adjacent territory.

Will Russia protect Iran if US start attacking Iran?

 

[SilverMachine]

Fuck no. They have their own problems/preoccupations about now. Iran's of interest to Russia, but not at the cost of materiel important in securing Russia and their baby brother next door.

 

[contricusc]

Will Russia protect Iran if US start attacking Iran?

With what? They couldn’t protect their own territory in Kursk against Ukrainian attacks. How could they possibly protect Iran from the US?

 

[Huelague]

What about China?

 

[Rooxbar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841589587522576467

@dBSPL @Sanchez

This kind of refutes my point about this being a more restrained response, doesn't it? At the time we thought maybe there was 30 hits; now it seems there was much more. True they didn't kill anyone (except for that one unfortunate guy), but Israel also didn't bombard Iranian soil, so it's kind of a balanced tit-for-tat rather than a restrained response.

 

[Rooxbar]

With what? They couldn’t protect their own territory in Kursk against Ukrainian attacks. How could they possibly protect Iran from the US?

That's whataboutism. Just as Syria was proxy warfare, Iran will be the same.

 

[contricusc]

That's whataboutism. Just as Syria was proxy warfare, Iran will be the same.

It’s not whataboutism. I am simply pointing out clear facts that Russia is in no position to help someone, especially against a much stronger foe like the US.

Russia couldn’t even help Armenia (which was part of their security alliance) against Azerbaidjan. How can you expect them to be able to protect Iran against the US?

 

[Rooxbar]

It’s not whataboutism. I am simply pointing out clear facts that Russia is in no position to help someone, especially against a much stronger foe like the US.

Russia couldn’t even help Armenia (which was part of their security alliance) against Azerbaidjan. How can you expect them to be able to protect Iran against the US?

That point about Armenia doesn't support the argument, as that was not a case of ability but of will.

 

[contricusc]

That point about Armenia doesn't support the argument, as that was not a case of ability but of will.

It was a combination of both. If they were not involved in Ukraine, they would have had a much sronger deterrence and Azerbaidjan would have had second thoughts about the war. But since Russia was already struggling in Ukraine, the Azeris knew they won’t be able to help Armenia, so they took advantage of Russia’s weakness. The lack of will from Russia’s part had its roots in its inability to fight on another front, after the difficulty it was already facing in Ukraine, and the need to not anger Turkey, as Russia was already isolated politically after the Ukraine invasion. Things are interlinked, and Russia’s weakness caused by the war in Ukraine puts it in a position where it is unable to help any of its allies.