Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[SilverMachine]

As Sanchez says, a hypothetical underground nuclear test doesn't mean Iran has a nuke ready to use. Comparing them to North Korea is frankly moronic - NK has dozens of these things, and have dwindled them down small enough to fit on their (even if unreliable) ICBMs.

Iran's nowhere near anything like that, most-generous-to-Iran-case-scenario. Their "expertise" is in rockets, not in nukes, they're super primitive in that regard. Obviously there's no confirmation there even *was* a test here, just some suspicious seismic activity that doesn't seem natural, but yeah, as Sanchez says, if it *gets* confirmed, you have to move now. Nobody, all the other middle-eastern countries (bar maybe Syria - even Lebanon doesn't) included, wants a nuclear Iran. You'd have the backing of everyone, west, east, global south, to Flintstones-era their entire military pre-emptively.

As for Corvus' "why can Israel have nukes and Iran can't?" - Hahahaha. You know damn fucking well why, Israel's not going to use them offensively. Iran? Even all the Arab states agree full well Iran would use them on Israel. Plus, if Iran's successful in getting one, bet your ass Egypt & Saudi Arabia & Jordan & the UAE are starting up programs, pronto. Someone's letting them off the chain at some point when that spreads. This is the definition of "nip this in the bud", any means necessary, Iran's not getting a bomb, we'll kill millions if we have to to prevent it. Not just Israel's position on this, either, literally the entire region bar Iran's own proxies.

 

[Zoth]

One thing is for sure, Türkiye needs Nukes.

While i kind of agree with this, what Turkey needs is domestic Nuclear Energy capabilities first, which sadly we are far far away from it, there are some attempts to learn know how with Nuclear Plants like Akkuyu and some others that will be built later on.

It all boils down into mastering the Nuclear Plants, when you have the capability of utilizing Nuclear Energy, making the Nukes is not that much of an hassle if you also have the capabilities to make long range Rockets(which Turkey kind of achieved this with Tayfun and planning to move even further soon).

If against all odds, in a hypothetical scenario where Iran successfully develops Nukes and decides to threatens it's neighbors, what Turkey might end up doing in short term is probably signing a deal with Pakistan about Nuke sharing, since there are hints that ANKA-3 will be able to carry nukes of Pakistan.

 

[Scott Summers]

He cant go back to Wall Street anymore.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844295174828196037

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844114872214356396

 

[Ryder]

What you call a one sided view is a neutral view that simply looks at the facts with no skin in the game. The reality is that part of Cyprus has been illegally occupied by Turkey for 50 years, and Cyprus is not allowed to function as a free democratic republic where all citizens have equal rights.

The attempt at reunification through the Annan plan has been an attempt to force Greek Cypruots to basically accept second hand citizen status in their country, with limited movement and property rights and disproportionately low representation in the country’s leadership, as well as foreign troops on their soil in perpetuity.

As for the Blue Homeland maritime claims, they are in the same league with China’s claims in South China Sea. Everyone looking at the issue from a neutral point of view will tell you that the Blue Homeland doctrine is completely bonkers.

I don’t have anything against Turkey, but in both cases it is obvious who is in the right and who is in the wrong. You may not agree with my opinion, but this is how things look like from a neutral perspective.

What the Greeks did to the Turkish Cypriots is what the Zionists are doing to the Palestinians.

Thank God the Turks intervened.

Eoka B was literally a Greek Isis they went around butchering Turkish Cypriot villages.

The West as you see with Israel is perfectly fine when the inferior race gets butchered Isis style.

The Turks the Saved their kin while the Arabs failed to save their kin. Thats the difference.

 

[byzero]

The Greeks committed massacres in many places such as Crete and Thessaloniki, killing tens of thousands of people just because they were Muslims and Turks. They tried to do the same in Cyprus, but we intervened.

 

[Barry]

Man doesn't care about historical facts, the mistake you guys always make is engaging these bad-faith arguments and bad actors consistently.

 

[Iskander]

Is Soleimani's Successor an Israeli Agent?

«The commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian IRGC, Brigadier General Ismail Qaani, who was appointed to this position after the death of Qasem Soleimani, is currently under guard and is being interrogated, Middle East Eye reports».

«According to the publication, the Iranian leadership suspects that Mossad agents permeate the entire IRGC leadership to the very top. In particular, only the highest-ranking IRGC generals had information about the last movements of the eliminated former head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
Arab media previously discussed the mysterious disappearance of Qaani after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah. Reportedly, the general himself was supposed to be present at that meeting in the bunker, but at the last moment refrained from going. The last time Ismail Qaani appeared in public was two days after Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli attack. He was seen in the office of Hezbollah spokesman in Tehran Abdullah Safi al-Din, after which he mysteriously disappeared...» - writes Haqqin az.

Преемник Сулеймани – агент Израиля?

haqqin.az

 

[byzero]

Mossad has infiltrated the most important institutions of the Iranian state. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad established a counter-intelligence department to combat Mossad. We later understood that even the head of this organization was working as a Mossad agent.

 

[SilverMachine]

That'd be pretty "Otto Skorzeny's unwittingly working for the Jews against Egypt" level hilarious, Iskander. Doesn't sound all that implausible either, they 99% had people inside the Guard in order to kill the Hamas guy in the Guard's safehouse. I'd want more backing the idea in order to believe it, a guy that high up, but yeah, interesting.

 

[Afif]

we'll kill millions if we have to to prevent it. Not just Israel's position on this, either, literally the entire region bar Iran's own proxies.

We? Who is this 'we'? Your country is not as invested in ME as excited you seems to be getting at the mention of (hypothetically) killing millions.

I think you shouldn't constantly moan about some others' provocative posts with regard to Israel, when you (yourself) are saying similar disturbing thing.

 

[Ryder]

Mossad has infiltrated the most important institutions of the Iranian state. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad established a counter-intelligence department to combat Mossad. We later understood that even the head of this organization was working as a Mossad agent.

The Middle East is full of sellouts. Not surprised at all.

 

[SilverMachine]

We? Who is this 'we'? Your country is not as invested in ME as excited you seems to be getting at the mention of (hypothetically) killing millions.

I think you shouldn't constantly moan about some others' provocative posts with regard to Israel, when you (yourself) are saying similar disturbing thing.

Yeah, 'cause obviously I was referring to Australia, alone, on its lonesome, not you know, the-entire-democratic-world. And some of the non-democratic ones like the Saudis & Jordan. Australia can't do shit, we're 20-ish million and a world away with a military that isn't worth shit aside from some top-tier special forces. Yeah, I was talking about Australia.

Look, if Iran gets a bomb or even gets close, shit's going down, no question about it. And it's not just going to be Israel leading the charge, count on it. You'll even have the freakin' French raining down hellfire. The French.

 

[Sanchez]

Iran's nowhere near anything like that, most-generous-to-Iran-case-scenario

Iran's been ready to develop a nuke at moment's notice for the last 20 years. Reason they haven't wasn't because they were unable to but because they did not wish to climb the escalation ladder at the time. All expert opinion from around the world supports this.

Iran? Even all the Arab states agree full well Iran would use them on Israel.

Can you back this up? That Iran would use a first strike against Israel? Same Iran that has shown 3 times over the course of this war in the last year that they do not want to be the party that escalates the conflict. This is MAD, and would open Israeli second strike options as their right. Doubt Iran wants to be nuked either. If anything, they have shown time and time again that they do not wish to escalate and wouldn't escalate.

Damn Iran and all, but let's be real for a second here.

 

[contricusc]

I don't think Annan plan was anything about second 'hand' citizenship. Though, I get why Greek Cypriots claim it was biased.

It was extremely biased to say the least. Greek Cypriots were not entitled proportional representation in the Senate or the Supreme Court, and they had restrictions on the areas of the island where they were allowed to live and hold property. They basically had to share power in a 1-1 ratio with a population that is between 3 and 4 times smaller. In a normal democratic country, people’s votes and representation should be equal. Not to mention the presence of foreign troops on their soil in perpetuity and the inability of displaced cypriots to claim back their stolen properties.

You are describing your pov as neutral. However, as third party person I could make the same claim and say, blue homeland looks reasonable to my eye. Have you looked to the Greek claimed EEZ? It look absurd and ridiculous.

I am neutral, and I assume you are too. In this case, I ask you what is ridiculous about Greek EEZ claims, since they are in accordance with generally accepted international law?

Look at these maps, which show the EEZs of Greece, Cyprus and Turkey according to internationally recognized criteria:

Marine Regions · Greek Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

Marine Regions · Cypriote Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

Marine Regions · Turkish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

You will see that Greek claims coincide with the generally accepted methodology of determining an EEZ. On the other hand, if you look at the claimed Blue Homeland map of Turkish EEZ, it basically swallows a large number of Greek islands as if they were Turkish, and the sea between them. Those islands would basically be surrounded by foreign waters according to this doctrine, which is absurd:

File:Blue Homeland.jpg - Wikimedia Commons

commons.wikimedia.org

As a neutral outside observer in this matter (I really have no preference between the countries involved), I think the EEZs should be determined according to the generally accepted international laws in the same way the EEZs of other countries are determined. Turkey however doesn’t recongnize the international laws because it knows it is in the wrong and their claims are outside the conventional rules.

 

[contricusc]

You cannot landlock a country which has one of the longest coastline to both Aegean and Mediterranean Sea just because you think you are an Island nation when you have a big ass mainland.

There are internationally recognized criteria of determining the EEZ of a country. Why shouldn’t they apply to the Greek and Turkish EEZs? If you apply the same criteria that are used for the rest of the world, Greek claims are in accordance to generally accepted conventions.

On the other hand, Turkish Blue Homeland claims are basically ignoring and swallowing many Greek islands, as if they didn’t exist or they were part of Turkey. That position is completely unreasonable, as seen from outside.

 

[contricusc]

What the Greeks did to the Turkish Cypriots is what the Zionists are doing to the Palestinians.

Thank God the Turks intervened.

It was ok for Turkey to intervene. The problem is, it forgot to leave, and it brought settlers from the mainland in order to alter its demographics. Also, there is the problem of displacing many innocent Greek Cypriots form their houses and their lands, which is equivalent to what the Israelis did in Palestine.

Eoka B was literally a Greek Isis they went around butchering Turkish Cypriot villages.

The West as you see with Israel is perfectly fine when the inferior race gets butchered Isis style.

The Turks the Saved their kin while the Arabs failed to save their kin. Thats the difference.

Again, there is nothing wrong with Turkey saving their kin. It is actually commendable. The problem is that they are not allowing Cyprus to become a normal independent country without outside military interference even 50 years after the events. This turns a legitimate intervention into military occupation.

Cyprus is no longer at risk of ethnic cleansing and it should be allowed to unite under a unique democratic government elected by all its people under an equal vote, as it is in all democratic countries. Also, all Cypriots should be allowed to live anywhere on the island, no matter their ethnicity, as it happens in all normal countries.

What happened 50 years ago should not dictate the present situation. People need to move on and build a normal country, based on the values of the XXI century.

 

[Zoth]

It was ok for Turkey to intervene. The problem is, it forgot to leave, and it brought settlers from the mainland in order to alter its demographics. Also, there is the problem of displacing many innocent Greek Cypriots form their houses and their lands, which is equivalent to what the Israelis did in Palestine.



Again, there is nothing wrong with Turkey saving their kin. It is actually commendable. The problem is that they are not allowing Cyprus to become a normal independent country without outside military interference even 50 years after the events. This turns a legitimate intervention into military occupation.

Cyprus is no longer at risk of ethnic cleansing and it should be allowed to unite under a unique democratic government elected by all its people under an equal vote, as it is in all democratic countries. Also, all Cypriots should be allowed to live anywhere on the island, no matter their ethnicity, as it happens in all normal countries.

What happened 50 years ago should not dictate the present situation. People need to move on and build a normal country, based on the values of the XXI century.

Lmao, sure thing, if Israel leaves Palestine, we may also think of abandoning Cyprus, go ask them.

Cyprus is paying the price of trying to ethnically cleanse it's Turkish citizens, why would Turkey leave Cyprus after it sacrificed so much to save it's kin? Get off your high horse, it's the same price Ukraine is paying for trying to cleanse it's Russian ethnicities from it's eastern border.

People have moved on, the island is divided into two and it will stay that way, you can go cry in a corner or try uniting the island by force, otherwise there is nothing you can do, the status quo will prevail.

 

[Zoth]

There are internationally recognized criteria of determining the EEZ of a country. Why shouldn’t they apply to the Greek and Turkish EEZs? If you apply the same criteria that are used for the rest of the world, Greek claims are in accordance to generally accepted conventions.

On the other hand, Turkish Blue Homeland claims are basically ignoring and swallowing many Greek islands, as if they didn’t exist or they were part of Turkey. That position is completely unreasonable, as seen from outside.

Turkey is not signatory of UNCLOS, even in case of 2 countries who signed UNCLOS, there are multiple examples where islands given limited EEZ in favor of mainland(coastline) of countries.

So, you can't use Unclos in case of Turkey, sovereignty > customary law.
Even if Turkey were a signatory of UNCLOS you couldn't force Turkey to agree Greece's 12nm claims because it simply is not favorable for any sane country thus the casus belli.

 

[contricusc]

Lmao, sure thing, if Israel leaves Palestine, we may also think of abandoning Cyprus, go ask them.

The correct thing would be for Israel to leave, at least the territories it occupied following the previous wars. Of course they won’t do it, but I was talking about what is right and wrong, not about what will happen.

Cyprus is paying the price of trying to ethnically cleanse it's Turkish citizens, why would Turkey leave Cyprus after it sacrificed so much to save it's kin? Get off your high horse, it's the same price Ukraine is paying for trying to cleanse it's Russian ethnicities from it's eastern border.

Turkey should leave Cyprus and Russia should also leave Ukraine. It is one thing to intervene to save your kin, and another thing to occupy territories.

Cyprus should not pay for its mistakes in perpetuity, just like WW2 perpetrators have been forgiven and are not under occupation anymore.

People have moved on, the island is divided into two and it will stay that way, you can go cry in a corner or try uniting the island by force, otherwise there is nothing you can do, the status quo will prevail.

The fact that nobody can or wants to do anything about it doesn’t change the fact that the situation is unjust and Turkey is perpetuating a problem instead of working on resolving it.

The topic was brought up when I said that Turkey should change its stance and allow Cyprus to return to normal, in order to mend its relations with Europe and be able to join the EU. I was not advocating for any military solution to the Cypriot problem, I was advocating for Turkey to uniterally change its stance and accept a decent compromise.

The EU has shown that it wants Turkey in, as they were actually throwing Cyprus under the bus by supporting the Annan plan only to appease Turkey, so if Turkey would offer an acceptable solution to the Greek Cypriots, the path to EU membership would be open.

But if you think that acting like a pariah country hated by its neighbors (like Israel and Russia do) is the best way forward for Turkey, you are entitled to your opinions. I would prefer a Turkey that is conciliatory and has good relations with its neighbors, and it is part of the EU.

 

[contricusc]

Turkey is not signatory of UNCLOS, even in case of 2 countries who signed UNCLOS, there are multiple examples where islands given limited EEZ in favor of mainland(coastline) of countries.

So, you can't use Unclos in case of Turkey, sovereignty > customary law.
Even if Turkey were a signatory of UNCLOS you couldn't force Turkey to agree Greece's 12nm claims because it simply is not favorable for any sane country thus the casus belli.

Nobody can force Turkey to accept the customary law, because as you say, sovereignty is above that. But from a neutral perspective, customary law is how conflicts should be resolved in an acceptable way. The party that challenges customary law is in the wrong, because it doesn’t accept what is considerd acceptable by the vast majority.

Why should Greece give up its claims when they are in accordance with customary laws? It would be more reasonable to expect Turkey to give up its claims, since they are not in accordance with customary law.

Maybe some negotiation coukd go a long way in getting to a middle path, but a middle path would need to be much closer to the Greek position, since they are “right” according to the customary laws.