TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Saithan]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

 

[Ryder]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

Ethiopia lost Eritrea which meant being landlocked.

After losing eritrea, Ethiopia began their gamble in taking Somalia.

A lot of people say the reason why they invaded Somalia was not just because of Islamists but also to gain land and a access to a sea port or the ocean itself.

Ethiopia blames being landlocked for being poor hence why its trying to get itself a coast.

Whats hilarious even the Ottomans numerous times denied the Ethiopians in gaining a coast LOL.

 

[TR_123456]

One prominent cause though is U.S. strategic thinking about Eurasia and the role of its control, which they think can be achieved through us, as exemplified in the work of Brzezinski.

I think you need to update this statement.

 

[Rooxbar]

I think you need to update this statement.

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

 

[TR_123456]

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

The strategic thinking of the US in the ME does not include us is what i meant.

 

[SomaliPop]

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

 

[SomaliPop]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

 

[Kartal1]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470