TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Rooxbar]

Looks like goverment literally pressing all buttons ATM.

Today's news about joints exploration and refiniming of precious mineral deposit discovered few years ago with U.S.(talks dropped with China)

Last week news : New deals signed about natural gas/oil purchase from West( Exxon Mobile , Shell and Total )

And we are trying enter BRICS at the same time?

With recent revelations about Akşener, KK and his shenanigans inside CHP, his circle all being Mehmet Agar and Gultekin Uysal people, and PKK behavior around the time of election, it seems to me Gladio II did a controlled oppo operation during the election; the recent deals with Germany reinforce this, so it seems the disagreements with Fuller side of the intelligence community over the biggest arm of Gladio II, aka Gulenists, has been ironed out and the pre 2013 plans are reinstituted; this gives me doubts about this whole BRICS thing, might be a 5th column operation, along with this rhetoric about Israel, while having a fruitful domestic by-product of shutting up Islamists, without ever touching the main thing that will cripple Israel, 60 of its energy going through us from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Russian intelligence was not born yesterday (they banned Gulen schools as early as 2006, citing them as fronts for CIA; although I would've expected them to do it even earlier because of the coups against Karimov and Aliyev in late 90s and early aughts). Reportedly Russian officials had responded positively to enquiry of Turkish officials with regards to the possibility of joining behind closed doors, prompting them to apply, only to leak the application to close-to-Putin media, and Lavrov immediatley snubbing and declaring that no new members will be admitted for now, a fact not reported in any Turkish media afaik.

Another evidence I forgot to mention is Modern Diplomacy's piece here: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/09/turkiyes-membership-in-brics-will-strengthen-the-global-south/

Modern diplomacy is the mouthpiece of Italian mogul and right hand man of Licio Gelli, and esteemed member of P2 lodge Giancarlo Elia Valori. People familiar with the work of Ugur Mumcu and Paul Williams will be familiar with these names. When the prominent member of old Gladio is singing the praises of the BRICS application, you know what the underlying reasons must be.

 

[Sanchez]

With recent revelations about Akşener, KK and his shenanigans inside CHP, his circle all being Mehmet Agar and Gultekin Uysal people, and PKK behavior around the time of election, it seems to me Gladio II did a controlled oppo operation during the election; the recent deals with Germany reinforce this, so it seems the disagreements with Fuller side of the intelligence community over the biggest arm of Gladio II, aka Gulenists, has been ironed out and the pre 2013 plans are reinstituted; this gives me doubts about this whole BRICS thing, might be a 5th column operation, along with this rhetoric about Israel, while having a fruitful domestic by-product of shutting up Islamists, without ever touching the main thing that will cripple Israel, 60 of its energy going through us from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Is it because I'm in it and not an outside observer, that I think Turkish politics is unparalleled in terms of complexity throughout the world?

 

[Rooxbar]

Is it because I'm in it and not an outside observer, that I think Turkish politics is unparalleled in terms of complexity throughout the world?

It's not just you; during the Italian trials of Gladio in the 90s, the main prosecutor who was steeped in all this esoteric shit, said that if you think the relations between Vatican, P2 Lodge, Mafia families, Golden Triangle drug cartels, U.S. intelligence community and prominent financiers and IOR is complex in Italy, wait until you learn about Turkey. Read my edit to the previous post btw.

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

No, during the Italian trials of Gladio in the 90s, the main prosecutor who was steeped in all this esoteric shit, said that if you think the relations between Vatican, P2 Lodge, Mafia families, Golden Triangle drug cartels, U.S. intelligence community and prominent financiers and IOR is complex in Italy, wait until you learn about Turkey. Read my edit to the previous post btw.

And why is that such a mess? I mean, why Türkiye?

 

[Rooxbar]

And why is that such a mess? I mean, why Türkiye?

I mean anything like this mess has to have a complex array of causes; but people don't like that, it doesn't seem like truth when there's a complex web of causes interplaying. One prominent cause though is U.S. strategic thinking about Eurasia and the role of its control, which they think can be achieved through us, as exemplified in the work of Brzezinski.

 

[Rooxbar]

One mistake people make is thinking these disparate alliances form a singular unitarian force with omnipotence and omnipresence. But in fact, despite mostly having converging interests, they sometimes do clash, they don't have consistency of goals, gargantuan long-term planning and prescience, etc. They do make a lot of mistakes, often stupid ones (a lot of prominent actors perished in assassination and counter-assassination in the 80s and 90s), and despite the influence over the judiciary through influential actors, bribery and blackmail, many instances of excessive and flagrant unlawfulness has landed many actors in prisons, etc. It's chaotic and messy, and you work with what you got not some rational 50 year plan or something.

 

[YeşilVatan]

With recent revelations about Akşener, KK and his shenanigans inside CHP, his circle all being Mehmet Agar and Gultekin Uysal people, and PKK behavior around the time of election, it seems to me Gladio II did a controlled oppo operation during the election; the recent deals with Germany reinforce this, so it seems the disagreements with Fuller side of the intelligence community over the biggest arm of Gladio II, aka Gulenists, has been ironed out and the pre 2013 plans are reinstituted; this gives me doubts about this whole BRICS thing, might be a 5th column operation, along with this rhetoric about Israel, while having a fruitful domestic by-product of shutting up Islamists, without ever touching the main thing that will cripple Israel, 60 of its energy going through us from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Russian intelligence was not born yesterday (they banned Gulen schools as early as 2006, citing them as fronts for CIA; although I would've expected them to do it even earlier because of the coups against Karimov and Aliyev in late 90s and early aughts). Reportedly Russian officials had responded positively to enquiry of Turkish officials with regards to the possibility of joining behind closed doors, prompting them to apply, only to leak the application to close-to-Putin media, and Lavrov immediatley snubbing and declaring that no new members will be admitted for now, a fact not reported in any Turkish media afaik.

Another evidence I forgot to mention is Modern Diplomacy's piece here: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/09/turkiyes-membership-in-brics-will-strengthen-the-global-south/

Modern diplomacy is the mouthpiece of Italian mogul and right hand man of Licio Gelli, and esteemed member of P2 lodge Giancarlo Elia Valori. People familiar with the work of Ugur Mumcu and Paul Williams will be familiar with these names. When the prominent member of old Gladio is singing the praises of the BRICS application, you know what the underlying reasons must be.

"Even I can't stop my candidacy" -Gılışdar

We need a guy who can crush these shadowy networks. Send them all to artisanal quarries and televise the whole thing.

 

[Sanchez]

This will have its effects on our policies in the region as well.

"Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt will today declare a new regional alliance on common defence& security. The new 'tripartite alliance' is primarily motivated by desire to counter what the three states perceive as 'Ethiopian designs' on Red Sea."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844307153391321526

 

[Saithan]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

 

[Ryder]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

Ethiopia lost Eritrea which meant being landlocked.

After losing eritrea, Ethiopia began their gamble in taking Somalia.

A lot of people say the reason why they invaded Somalia was not just because of Islamists but also to gain land and a access to a sea port or the ocean itself.

Ethiopia blames being landlocked for being poor hence why its trying to get itself a coast.

Whats hilarious even the Ottomans numerous times denied the Ethiopians in gaining a coast LOL.

 

[TR_123456]

One prominent cause though is U.S. strategic thinking about Eurasia and the role of its control, which they think can be achieved through us, as exemplified in the work of Brzezinski.

I think you need to update this statement.

 

[Rooxbar]

I think you need to update this statement.

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

 

[TR_123456]

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

The strategic thinking of the US in the ME does not include us is what i meant.

 

[SomaliPop]

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

 

[SomaliPop]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

 

[Kartal1]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470

 

[Scott Summers]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470

Turkish flags on Serbian streets. This was unthinkable or unimaginable 20 years ago.

Our relations with Serbia has radicaly changed from cold to hot.

 

[Ryder]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

Somalia really won the Ogaden war as they smashed Ethiopia militarily until the Soviets along with its puppets and proxies sent troops and massive amounts of aid to save Ethiopia from defeat.

It really mirrors the Somali Adal Sultanate which nearly smashed Ethiopians until the Portuguese intervened.

Somalia for centuries have always resisted Ethiopia.

 

[Saithan]

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

 

[SomaliPop]

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

I see. I'm sorry for the confusion.