TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Saithan]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

 

[Ryder]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

Ethiopia lost Eritrea which meant being landlocked.

After losing eritrea, Ethiopia began their gamble in taking Somalia.

A lot of people say the reason why they invaded Somalia was not just because of Islamists but also to gain land and a access to a sea port or the ocean itself.

Ethiopia blames being landlocked for being poor hence why its trying to get itself a coast.

Whats hilarious even the Ottomans numerous times denied the Ethiopians in gaining a coast LOL.

 

[TR_123456]

One prominent cause though is U.S. strategic thinking about Eurasia and the role of its control, which they think can be achieved through us, as exemplified in the work of Brzezinski.

I think you need to update this statement.

 

[Rooxbar]

I think you need to update this statement.

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

 

[TR_123456]

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

The strategic thinking of the US in the ME does not include us is what i meant.

 

[SomaliPop]

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

 

[SomaliPop]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

 

[Kartal1]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470

 

[Scott Summers]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470

Turkish flags on Serbian streets. This was unthinkable or unimaginable 20 years ago.

Our relations with Serbia has radicaly changed from cold to hot.

 

[Ryder]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

Somalia really won the Ogaden war as they smashed Ethiopia militarily until the Soviets along with its puppets and proxies sent troops and massive amounts of aid to save Ethiopia from defeat.

It really mirrors the Somali Adal Sultanate which nearly smashed Ethiopians until the Portuguese intervened.

Somalia for centuries have always resisted Ethiopia.

 

[Saithan]

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

 

[SomaliPop]

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

I see. I'm sorry for the confusion.

 

[SomaliPop]

Somalia really won the Ogaden war as they smashed Ethiopia militarily until the Soviets along with its puppets and proxies sent troops and massive amounts of aid to save Ethiopia from defeat.

It really mirrors the Somali Adal Sultanate which nearly smashed Ethiopians until the Portuguese intervened.

Somalia for centuries have always resisted Ethiopia.

Huh, that's interesting.

Very few foreigners know about Adal and what it meant to us historically. I really appreciate the fact that you do, it's very rare.

When it comes to the Ogaden war, we expected some pushback from the Soviets but not to that extent. Also we didn't think Cuba out of all countries would be willing to deploy troops to the Horn, inshallah America nukes them in the second cold war. It is what it is, we can't change the past now.

That war was a colossal setback for our country and led to our collapse, but it was inevitable. It was always politically impossible for any unified Somalia to leave Western Somalia to its fate under Ethiopia's rule. It's why the civil war has lasted so long btw, our elites understood that unification would quickly lead to war and American sanctions aka famine in our country.

That's why current Ethiopian aggression has been a blessing in disguise for our country, as it gives us legal justification for war and opens political room for us to unite our country. The progress we made in 2024 alone was greater than what we managed to accomplish in the prior decade and we expect 2025 to be even more significant.

 

[Ryder]

Huh, that's interesting.

Very few foreigners know about Adal and what it meant to us historically. I really appreciate the fact that you do, it's very rare.

When it comes to the Ogaden war, we expected some pushback from the Soviets but not to that extent. Also we didn't think Cuba out of all countries would be willing to deploy troops to the Horn, inshallah America nukes them in the second cold war. It is what it is, we can't change the past now.

That war was a colossal setback for our country and led to our collapse, but it was inevitable. It was always politically impossible for any unified Somalia to leave Western Somalia to its fate under Ethiopia's rule. It's why the civil war has lasted so long btw, our elites understood that unification would quickly lead to war and American sanctions aka famine in our country.

That's why current Ethiopian aggression has been a blessing in disguise for our country, as it gives us legal justification for war and opens political room for us to unite our country. The progress we made in 2024 alone was greater than what we managed to accomplish in the prior decade and we expect 2025 to be even more significant.

Ottomans in the Horn of Africa and in the East of Africa is barely known even in Turkish sources.

I had to find this stuff out due to stupid wikipedia which is a shame then tried to look for the books. I did find it for free as an ebook now they are all gone.

Ottoman age of Exploration book talks about this how the Ottomans sent expeditions into the Horn of Africa, India and Indonesia to fight off European colonialism and to secure their trading routes.

Ottomans even once went deep into Ethiopia.