TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Saithan]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

 

[Ryder]

I think a security agreement like this could work to reduce the gungho'ness...

As I see it, Ethiopia has been jumping around flirting with recognizing Somaliland for some harbour rights. I was thinking why in f-name didn't they try to get access to the sea back when Eritrea broke away and got their independence.

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

I should add that Ethiopia having grabbed some land from Somalia, might not feel super excited about the defence and security agreement...

Ethiopia lost Eritrea which meant being landlocked.

After losing eritrea, Ethiopia began their gamble in taking Somalia.

A lot of people say the reason why they invaded Somalia was not just because of Islamists but also to gain land and a access to a sea port or the ocean itself.

Ethiopia blames being landlocked for being poor hence why its trying to get itself a coast.

Whats hilarious even the Ottomans numerous times denied the Ethiopians in gaining a coast LOL.

 

[TR_123456]

One prominent cause though is U.S. strategic thinking about Eurasia and the role of its control, which they think can be achieved through us, as exemplified in the work of Brzezinski.

I think you need to update this statement.

 

[Rooxbar]

I think you need to update this statement.

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

 

[TR_123456]

Are there new developments I'm not aware of?

The strategic thinking of the US in the ME does not include us is what i meant.

 

[SomaliPop]

Some land swapping to ensure sea access for permanent peace would have worked wonders. imagine how little access Bosnia has, but that is still better than nothing.

But there is too much tribal mentality going on in those regions and they need a national education plan to eradicate that and that is going to take time.

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

 

[SomaliPop]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

 

[Kartal1]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470

 

[Scott Summers]

Belgrade prior to the visit by President Erdogan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844422651953209470

Turkish flags on Serbian streets. This was unthinkable or unimaginable 20 years ago.

Our relations with Serbia has radicaly changed from cold to hot.

 

[Ryder]

The dispute regarding coastal access isn't really the issue at hand here.

The naval deal we signed with Turkey has put an end to this as it gives Mogadishu the capacity to enact a blockade on the north.

The real issue lies with Ethiopian troops in the south and the restive Somali population within Ethiopia itself. Addis pacified Somalis within Ethiopia's borders (about 10% of the population and 30% of the landmass) by coming to a bunch of deals with Somaliland, Puntland and Southern Somalia that denied basing opportunity for any would be Somali rebels. Since Southern Somalia collapsed, Ethiopia has created a buffer zone there in the early 90's and Mogadishu legitimized their presence with a bilateral military agreement because of the khawarij terrorists lurking there.

In response to Ethiopian aggression, Somalia declared it wouldn't renew the military agreement come 01/01/2025 and has invited Egyptian troops to deal with Al Shabaab. This would put Egypt on Ethiopia's border and would give them a free hand in fomenting a rebellion in Ethiopia's Somali region.

Right now, Ethiopia would not be able to withstand unrest in the Somali region. Addis has proved incapable of pacifying the Amhara or Tigray regions and its currency was devaluated by about 140% in the past few months. An Ethiopian civil war instigated by Somalis would lead to its collapse.

So they will try to annex the buffer zone to stop this. Somaliland is also close to collapsing after a military defeat last year so it's likely Ethiopia will try to make a move there as well, a hostile Somalia is already bad for Ethiopia but a hostile Somalia in control of the north is an existential threat due to geographic reasons.

Their chances of actually succeeding are pretty much non existent but Turks here should understand the gravity of the situation. I think people broadly underestimate just how intense Somali nationalism can become in the face of Ethiopian expansionism. If Ethiopia refuses to back down by January, we will be forced to go through with some political reforms to take back the buffer zone and put down Somaliland. Those reforms would doom us to total war and it would become politically impossible for us to stop at Somalia's internationally recognized borders. It would truly become a regional war with casualties in the millions.

Somalia really won the Ogaden war as they smashed Ethiopia militarily until the Soviets along with its puppets and proxies sent troops and massive amounts of aid to save Ethiopia from defeat.

It really mirrors the Somali Adal Sultanate which nearly smashed Ethiopians until the Portuguese intervened.

Somalia for centuries have always resisted Ethiopia.

 

[Saithan]

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

 

[SomaliPop]

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

I see. I'm sorry for the confusion.

 

[SomaliPop]

Somalia really won the Ogaden war as they smashed Ethiopia militarily until the Soviets along with its puppets and proxies sent troops and massive amounts of aid to save Ethiopia from defeat.

It really mirrors the Somali Adal Sultanate which nearly smashed Ethiopians until the Portuguese intervened.

Somalia for centuries have always resisted Ethiopia.

Huh, that's interesting.

Very few foreigners know about Adal and what it meant to us historically. I really appreciate the fact that you do, it's very rare.

When it comes to the Ogaden war, we expected some pushback from the Soviets but not to that extent. Also we didn't think Cuba out of all countries would be willing to deploy troops to the Horn, inshallah America nukes them in the second cold war. It is what it is, we can't change the past now.

That war was a colossal setback for our country and led to our collapse, but it was inevitable. It was always politically impossible for any unified Somalia to leave Western Somalia to its fate under Ethiopia's rule. It's why the civil war has lasted so long btw, our elites understood that unification would quickly lead to war and American sanctions aka famine in our country.

That's why current Ethiopian aggression has been a blessing in disguise for our country, as it gives us legal justification for war and opens political room for us to unite our country. The progress we made in 2024 alone was greater than what we managed to accomplish in the prior decade and we expect 2025 to be even more significant.

 

[Ryder]

Huh, that's interesting.

Very few foreigners know about Adal and what it meant to us historically. I really appreciate the fact that you do, it's very rare.

When it comes to the Ogaden war, we expected some pushback from the Soviets but not to that extent. Also we didn't think Cuba out of all countries would be willing to deploy troops to the Horn, inshallah America nukes them in the second cold war. It is what it is, we can't change the past now.

That war was a colossal setback for our country and led to our collapse, but it was inevitable. It was always politically impossible for any unified Somalia to leave Western Somalia to its fate under Ethiopia's rule. It's why the civil war has lasted so long btw, our elites understood that unification would quickly lead to war and American sanctions aka famine in our country.

That's why current Ethiopian aggression has been a blessing in disguise for our country, as it gives us legal justification for war and opens political room for us to unite our country. The progress we made in 2024 alone was greater than what we managed to accomplish in the prior decade and we expect 2025 to be even more significant.

Ottomans in the Horn of Africa and in the East of Africa is barely known even in Turkish sources.

I had to find this stuff out due to stupid wikipedia which is a shame then tried to look for the books. I did find it for free as an ebook now they are all gone.

Ottoman age of Exploration book talks about this how the Ottomans sent expeditions into the Horn of Africa, India and Indonesia to fight off European colonialism and to secure their trading routes.

Ottomans even once went deep into Ethiopia.

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846537047185440801

 

[Rooxbar]

Öcalan’la görüşme, DEM’in muhataplığı ve Suriye’nin kuzeyi… | Mehmet Metiner

Her şey Sn. Devlet Bahçeli’nin DEM Partililerin elini sıkmasıyla başladı. Ardından yeni bir “çözüm süreci” lafları tedavüle sokuldu. Bahçeli’nin uzattığı o el siyaseten çok anlamlıydı. Niçin uzattığına dair yaptığı açıklamalar çok daha anlamlı ve kıymetliydi. Ne yazık ki DEM Parti bunun...

www.yenisafak.com

Özetle dediğim şuydu:

-Biz Kürtlerin kazanımından rahatsızlık duyan bir parti değiliz. Bizim Hükümetimiz Suriye’deki Kürtlerin ne yönetiminden ne de kazanımlarından rahatsızlık duyar. Tersine memnuniyet duyar. Çünkü Kürt de biziz, Türk de biziz. Türkiye Kürtlerin de devletidir. O yüzden partimizin ve hükümetimizin Kürtlere düşmanlık beslediği veya onların kazanımlarından rahatsızlık duyduğu iddiası asılsızdır, yalandır. Eğer öyle olsaydı Irak’taki Kürt yönetimiyle derin kapsamlı ilişkiler kuran bir hükümet olmazdık.


-Suriye halkı yarın kendi anayasasını yapar ve o anayasada tıpkı Irak’takine benzer Kürt otonom bölgesinin kurulmasına karar verilirse buna hiç bir itirazımız olmaz. Bizim itirazımız, yıllar yılıdır ülkemizle savaşım halinde olan PKK’yadır. PKK eliyle oluşturulmak istenen “İkinci İsrail” devletçiğine ülkemizin güvenliği ve birliği açısından asla izin vermeyiz.

Google translation:

In summary, what I said was this:

-We are not a party that is disturbed by the gains of the Kurds. Our Government is not disturbed by the rule or the achievements of the Kurds in Syria. On the contrary, he is pleased. Because we are both Kurds and we are Turks. Türkiye is also the state of the Kurds. Therefore, the claim that our party and government has hostility towards the Kurds or is disturbed by their achievements is unfounded and a lie. If that were the case, we would not be a government that had deep relations with the Kurdish administration in Iraq.

-If the Syrian people make their own constitution tomorrow and it is decided to establish a Kurdish autonomous region, just like the one in Iraq, we will have no objection to this. Our objection is to the PKK, which has been at war with our country for years. We will never allow the "Second Israel" statelet to be created by the PKK for the security and unity of our country.

They did the same thing early in the Syrian civil war (which some members here (with some blatant revisionism) were arguing with me that they didn't), now what different result are they expecting? The rational answer is that they cannot expect a different result, therefore they don't care about the lessons learnt in the past decade; they see this as their only chance to still have the West's backing.

 

[CAN_TR]

This party is full of such treacherous thugs...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845909276369317967

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846522973835940280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846231910810333349

nursuz s2kler.

 

[Kartal1]

Lets look at this a bit logically. PKK's armed wing in Turkiye is 90% done, we are at the end of the "lock" in the north of Iraq and we are already directly involved in combat operations in Gara, we are 30km deep in Hakurk (after Hakurk there is Qandil). The US is leaving Iraq and they will probably leave Syria till 2030, they will be concentrating more resource on Asia-Pacific, leaving the MENA to other players like Turkiye to deal with the problems.

Look at the statements of the PKK so-called leaders and see the panic they are in. Their middle level field commanders are afraid to come out of their caves because they are going to be fried. PKK is taking its last breaths as the organization we know it. This is why it is so important for them to concentrate on the political side of things and transform the struggle into mainly a political one. The US sees this and that's why they push the PKK towards reformation by giving them the needed time, land and guarantees in Syria. Of course they will not succeed as the Syrian status quo is going to the trash bin very soon and PKK will not like the results.

To fully destroy PKK and its idea is nearly impossible and if by any chance we will need decades for it. What we can realistically do tho, is weaken PKK to such a state where they are no more a danger to the Turkish national and regional security and contain them both militarily and politically where they are no more a significant factor. This is only possible with the proactive approach we demonstrate currently in Iraq, intensive diplomatic efforts with our regional partners and political determination. I think that we managed to achieve a lot in this year and I hope we keep up the good work. Next year will be a tough one, but regardless I don't think you should fall for this rhetoric. A possible peace process is always a theme of talk every year, but the realities on the field point at different story.

 

[Rooxbar]

This party is full of such treacherous thugs...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845909276369317967

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846522973835940280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846231910810333349

nursuz s2kler.

They talk a big game when it comes to placating their base but when it comes to confrontations with the Western powers they show such cowardice that it pushes them to maximalism.

 

[CAN_TR]

Lets look at this a bit logically. PKK's armed wing in Turkiye is 90% done, we are at the end of the "lock" in the north of Iraq and we are already directly involved in combat operations in Gara, we are 30km deep in Hakurk (after Hakurk there is Qandil). The US is leaving Iraq and they will probably leave Syria till 2030, they will be concentrating more resource on Asia-Pacific, leaving the MENA to other players like Turkiye to deal with the problems.

Look at the statements of the PKK so-called leaders and see the panic they are in. Their middle level field commanders are afraid to come out of their caves because they are going to be fried. PKK is taking its last breaths as the organization we know it. This is why it is so important for them to concentrate on the political side of things and transform the struggle into mainly a political one. The US sees this and that's why they push the PKK towards reformation by giving them the needed time, land and guarantees in Syria. Of course they will not succeed as the Syrian status quo is going to the trash bin very soon and PKK will not like the results.

To fully destroy PKK and its idea is nearly impossible and if by any chance we will need decades for it. What we can realistically do tho, is weaken PKK to such a state where they are no more a danger to the Turkish national and regional security and contain them both militarily and politically where they are no more a significant factor. This is only possible with the proactive approach we demonstrate currently in Iraq, intensive diplomatic efforts with our regional partners and political determination. I think that we managed to achieve a lot in this year and I hope we keep up the good work. Next year will be a tough one, but regardless I don't think you should fall for this rhetoric. A possible peace process is always a theme of talk every year, but the realities on the field point at different story.

Well militarily it's true inside Türkiye but their sympathizers should be dealt with no tolerance, the ongoing Claw Lock is going well but there is still PKK's stronghold Gara, there are still active tunnels in regions that are under control, there is still Talabani which is pushing every button to destabilize Northern Iraq, but the real threat is what the US established in Syria. We have to contain them in there at any cost, they shall never be allowed to spread to Iraq.

We have to act more aggressive in Syria, like what Israel was doing over the years against Hamas & Hezbollah "mowing the grass", the US is arming them up well then we have to find and destroy those weapon caches. I don't like this passive coward policies, whenever the west is busy with other things we have to hammer down on PKK in Syria, short but intense. This is not a region and they are not people you can deal with diplomacy and patience.