TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Saithan]

Why doesn't Turkey do some "land swapping" with the PKK so that they can exchange Kurdish independence for permanent peace?

While we're at it, why doesn't Turkey give up Istanbul to Greece so there's no more historic resentment between your people and theirs? I'm sure that would bring permanent peace.

I'm sorry for the perceived tribal mentality of my people, but how about yours?

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

 

[SomaliPop]

mate I was refering to the war Ethiopia had with Eritrea, and not Somalia. So what I was saying is a sliver of land between djibota and Eritrea for Sea access would have solved Ethiopias problem. post war talks and such.

Your comparison with a terrorist organization doesn't fit in with any Scenario, I mean you wouldn't swap or hand over land or anything to Al-Shabab right ?

I see. I'm sorry for the confusion.

 

[SomaliPop]

Somalia really won the Ogaden war as they smashed Ethiopia militarily until the Soviets along with its puppets and proxies sent troops and massive amounts of aid to save Ethiopia from defeat.

It really mirrors the Somali Adal Sultanate which nearly smashed Ethiopians until the Portuguese intervened.

Somalia for centuries have always resisted Ethiopia.

Huh, that's interesting.

Very few foreigners know about Adal and what it meant to us historically. I really appreciate the fact that you do, it's very rare.

When it comes to the Ogaden war, we expected some pushback from the Soviets but not to that extent. Also we didn't think Cuba out of all countries would be willing to deploy troops to the Horn, inshallah America nukes them in the second cold war. It is what it is, we can't change the past now.

That war was a colossal setback for our country and led to our collapse, but it was inevitable. It was always politically impossible for any unified Somalia to leave Western Somalia to its fate under Ethiopia's rule. It's why the civil war has lasted so long btw, our elites understood that unification would quickly lead to war and American sanctions aka famine in our country.

That's why current Ethiopian aggression has been a blessing in disguise for our country, as it gives us legal justification for war and opens political room for us to unite our country. The progress we made in 2024 alone was greater than what we managed to accomplish in the prior decade and we expect 2025 to be even more significant.

 

[Ryder]

Huh, that's interesting.

Very few foreigners know about Adal and what it meant to us historically. I really appreciate the fact that you do, it's very rare.

When it comes to the Ogaden war, we expected some pushback from the Soviets but not to that extent. Also we didn't think Cuba out of all countries would be willing to deploy troops to the Horn, inshallah America nukes them in the second cold war. It is what it is, we can't change the past now.

That war was a colossal setback for our country and led to our collapse, but it was inevitable. It was always politically impossible for any unified Somalia to leave Western Somalia to its fate under Ethiopia's rule. It's why the civil war has lasted so long btw, our elites understood that unification would quickly lead to war and American sanctions aka famine in our country.

That's why current Ethiopian aggression has been a blessing in disguise for our country, as it gives us legal justification for war and opens political room for us to unite our country. The progress we made in 2024 alone was greater than what we managed to accomplish in the prior decade and we expect 2025 to be even more significant.

Ottomans in the Horn of Africa and in the East of Africa is barely known even in Turkish sources.

I had to find this stuff out due to stupid wikipedia which is a shame then tried to look for the books. I did find it for free as an ebook now they are all gone.

Ottoman age of Exploration book talks about this how the Ottomans sent expeditions into the Horn of Africa, India and Indonesia to fight off European colonialism and to secure their trading routes.

Ottomans even once went deep into Ethiopia.

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846537047185440801

 

[Rooxbar]

Öcalan’la görüşme, DEM’in muhataplığı ve Suriye’nin kuzeyi…

Her şey Sn. Devlet Bahçeli’nin DEM Partililerin elini sıkmasıyla başladı. Ardından yeni bir “çözüm süreci” lafları tedavüle sokuldu. Bahçeli’nin uzattığı o el siyaseten çok anlamlıydı. Niçin uzattığına dair yaptığı açıklamalar çok daha anlamlı ve kıymetliydi. Ne yazık ki DEM Parti bunun...

www.yenisafak.com

Özetle dediğim şuydu:

-Biz Kürtlerin kazanımından rahatsızlık duyan bir parti değiliz. Bizim Hükümetimiz Suriye’deki Kürtlerin ne yönetiminden ne de kazanımlarından rahatsızlık duyar. Tersine memnuniyet duyar. Çünkü Kürt de biziz, Türk de biziz. Türkiye Kürtlerin de devletidir. O yüzden partimizin ve hükümetimizin Kürtlere düşmanlık beslediği veya onların kazanımlarından rahatsızlık duyduğu iddiası asılsızdır, yalandır. Eğer öyle olsaydı Irak’taki Kürt yönetimiyle derin kapsamlı ilişkiler kuran bir hükümet olmazdık.


-Suriye halkı yarın kendi anayasasını yapar ve o anayasada tıpkı Irak’takine benzer Kürt otonom bölgesinin kurulmasına karar verilirse buna hiç bir itirazımız olmaz. Bizim itirazımız, yıllar yılıdır ülkemizle savaşım halinde olan PKK’yadır. PKK eliyle oluşturulmak istenen “İkinci İsrail” devletçiğine ülkemizin güvenliği ve birliği açısından asla izin vermeyiz.

Google translation:

In summary, what I said was this:

-We are not a party that is disturbed by the gains of the Kurds. Our Government is not disturbed by the rule or the achievements of the Kurds in Syria. On the contrary, he is pleased. Because we are both Kurds and we are Turks. Türkiye is also the state of the Kurds. Therefore, the claim that our party and government has hostility towards the Kurds or is disturbed by their achievements is unfounded and a lie. If that were the case, we would not be a government that had deep relations with the Kurdish administration in Iraq.

-If the Syrian people make their own constitution tomorrow and it is decided to establish a Kurdish autonomous region, just like the one in Iraq, we will have no objection to this. Our objection is to the PKK, which has been at war with our country for years. We will never allow the "Second Israel" statelet to be created by the PKK for the security and unity of our country.

They did the same thing early in the Syrian civil war (which some members here (with some blatant revisionism) were arguing with me that they didn't), now what different result are they expecting? The rational answer is that they cannot expect a different result, therefore they don't care about the lessons learnt in the past decade; they see this as their only chance to still have the West's backing.

 

[CAN_TR]

This party is full of such treacherous thugs...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845909276369317967

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846522973835940280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846231910810333349

nursuz s2kler.

 

[Kartal1]

Lets look at this a bit logically. PKK's armed wing in Turkiye is 90% done, we are at the end of the "lock" in the north of Iraq and we are already directly involved in combat operations in Gara, we are 30km deep in Hakurk (after Hakurk there is Qandil). The US is leaving Iraq and they will probably leave Syria till 2030, they will be concentrating more resource on Asia-Pacific, leaving the MENA to other players like Turkiye to deal with the problems.

Look at the statements of the PKK so-called leaders and see the panic they are in. Their middle level field commanders are afraid to come out of their caves because they are going to be fried. PKK is taking its last breaths as the organization we know it. This is why it is so important for them to concentrate on the political side of things and transform the struggle into mainly a political one. The US sees this and that's why they push the PKK towards reformation by giving them the needed time, land and guarantees in Syria. Of course they will not succeed as the Syrian status quo is going to the trash bin very soon and PKK will not like the results.

To fully destroy PKK and its idea is nearly impossible and if by any chance we will need decades for it. What we can realistically do tho, is weaken PKK to such a state where they are no more a danger to the Turkish national and regional security and contain them both militarily and politically where they are no more a significant factor. This is only possible with the proactive approach we demonstrate currently in Iraq, intensive diplomatic efforts with our regional partners and political determination. I think that we managed to achieve a lot in this year and I hope we keep up the good work. Next year will be a tough one, but regardless I don't think you should fall for this rhetoric. A possible peace process is always a theme of talk every year, but the realities on the field point at different story.

 

[Rooxbar]

This party is full of such treacherous thugs...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1845909276369317967

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846522973835940280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846231910810333349

nursuz s2kler.

They talk a big game when it comes to placating their base but when it comes to confrontations with the Western powers they show such cowardice that it pushes them to maximalism.

 

[CAN_TR]

Lets look at this a bit logically. PKK's armed wing in Turkiye is 90% done, we are at the end of the "lock" in the north of Iraq and we are already directly involved in combat operations in Gara, we are 30km deep in Hakurk (after Hakurk there is Qandil). The US is leaving Iraq and they will probably leave Syria till 2030, they will be concentrating more resource on Asia-Pacific, leaving the MENA to other players like Turkiye to deal with the problems.

Look at the statements of the PKK so-called leaders and see the panic they are in. Their middle level field commanders are afraid to come out of their caves because they are going to be fried. PKK is taking its last breaths as the organization we know it. This is why it is so important for them to concentrate on the political side of things and transform the struggle into mainly a political one. The US sees this and that's why they push the PKK towards reformation by giving them the needed time, land and guarantees in Syria. Of course they will not succeed as the Syrian status quo is going to the trash bin very soon and PKK will not like the results.

To fully destroy PKK and its idea is nearly impossible and if by any chance we will need decades for it. What we can realistically do tho, is weaken PKK to such a state where they are no more a danger to the Turkish national and regional security and contain them both militarily and politically where they are no more a significant factor. This is only possible with the proactive approach we demonstrate currently in Iraq, intensive diplomatic efforts with our regional partners and political determination. I think that we managed to achieve a lot in this year and I hope we keep up the good work. Next year will be a tough one, but regardless I don't think you should fall for this rhetoric. A possible peace process is always a theme of talk every year, but the realities on the field point at different story.

Well militarily it's true inside Türkiye but their sympathizers should be dealt with no tolerance, the ongoing Claw Lock is going well but there is still PKK's stronghold Gara, there are still active tunnels in regions that are under control, there is still Talabani which is pushing every button to destabilize Northern Iraq, but the real threat is what the US established in Syria. We have to contain them in there at any cost, they shall never be allowed to spread to Iraq.

We have to act more aggressive in Syria, like what Israel was doing over the years against Hamas & Hezbollah "mowing the grass", the US is arming them up well then we have to find and destroy those weapon caches. I don't like this passive coward policies, whenever the west is busy with other things we have to hammer down on PKK in Syria, short but intense. This is not a region and they are not people you can deal with diplomacy and patience.

 

[Kartal1]

We have something important here. There are currently at least 2 Turkish Armed Forces personnel in the UNIFIL in Nakura and by the looks the HQ is going to be besieged. Do we have any information about an UN action plan? This is the same base which the IDF attacked earlier, causing injuries to Indonesian soldiers.

 

[dBSPL]

Radical decisions need to be made in the supply of the military systems. When you no longer have deterrence, when you continue your life as a barrier to prevent any kind of risk that would threaten their national security no matter what is done to you, when their intelligence agency is openly working with the most important terrorist organizations in your country and conducting psychological warfare without stopping, and when there is no understanding left in their government that cares about the alliance of the Turkish state with any slightest sympathy, the real troublesome part of the matter is that we are still hoping for help from them like idiots in love with their executioners. However, this understanding will not be easily destroyed, because this platonic understanding in the country is quite strong and widespread. Domestic politics is already in shambles. We couldn't even create a $20 defense contribution fund, the proposal was withdrawn due to the backlash. I can't blame most of them, past mistakes that wasted resources became the main argument of this debate. But at some point we have to decide whether we are going to drown in domestic issues or whether we are going to recognize the abyss the world is heading to and take urgent measures together.

 

[boredaf]

We couldn't even create a $20 defense contribution fund, the proposal was withdrawn due to the backlash. I can't blame most of them, past mistakes that wasted resources became the main argument of this debate.

Oh buzz off with this rhetoric. When people can barely afford their rents and basic needs, of course it was going to meet with backlash. It wasn't just a "20" for a lot of people 750 lira is one or two bills or one big grocery shopping trip. If the government wants to create more fund for the military they should consider cutting the obscene budget of the Diyanet first, it is ridiculously and needlessly large.

Radical decisions need to be made in the supply of the military systems. When you no longer have deterrence, when you continue your life as a barrier to prevent any kind of risk that would threaten their national security no matter what is done to you, when their intelligence agency is openly working with the most important terrorist organizations in your country and conducting psychological warfare without stopping, and when there is no understanding left in their government that cares about the alliance of the Turkish state with any slightest sympathy, the real troublesome part of the matter is that we are still hoping for help from them like idiots in love with their executioners.

So, you want to cut us off from most of our biggest trading partners, biggest importers of our goods that bring 10s of billions to the country and do what exactly? Become beholden to oh so trustworthy Russia or China? Turn into North Korea? 2 decades of short sighted politics and thieves hidden behind official positions left us in the state we are today, not the West. And we are not begging for help, we are trying to do business the best we can. And the reason we have to try so hard is once again because people that have been in charge for over 2 decades fucked up both in their military planning and foreign diplomacy.

This blind hatred of the West without realising how entangled we are not just militarily but economically is just nonsensical.

 

[Zafer]

Oh buzz off with this rhetoric. When people can barely afford their rents and basic needs, of course it was going to meet with backlash. It wasn't just a "20" for a lot of people 750 lira is one or two bills or one big grocery shopping trip. If the government wants to create more fund for the military they should consider cutting the obscene budget of the Diyanet first, it is ridiculously and needlessly large.

So, you want to cut us off from most of our biggest trading partners, biggest importers of our goods that bring 10s of billions to the country and do what exactly? Become beholden to oh so trustworthy Russia or China? Turn into North Korea? 2 decades of short sighted politics and thieves hidden behind official positions left us in the state we are today, not the West. And we are not begging for help, we are trying to do business the best we can. And the reason we have to try so hard is once again because people that have been in charge for over 2 decades fucked up both in their military planning and foreign diplomacy.

This blind hatred of the West without realising how entangled we are not just militarily but economically is just nonsensical.

It is for credit cards over ₺100k limit which means wealthy people

It does not mean cutting off with anyone

We don't lean on Russia or China when we don't lean on the West, we stand straight on our own feet as a pole in the new multipolar world

Türkiye is in a good shape, just look at the world, we are better than most countries that matter despite pandemics and earthquakes

 

[boredaf]

Türkiye is in a good shape, just look at the world, we are better than most countries that matter despite pandemics and earthquakes

Yes, we are in such good shape that in the last 8 years dollar, just one example really, went from 2,26 to 34 lira. Truly a sign of a thriving economy.

We don't lean on Russia or China when we don't lean on the West, we stand straight on our own feet as a pole in the new multipolar world

Once again, your answer has no basis on reality whatsoever, you are living in a reality based on nothing but pure conjecture, not facts. Neither our economy, nor our industrial capacity and not even our population numbers are big enough to make us a superpower. Regional power, sure, that is a real and achievable goal. But superpower is nothing but a lie sold to people who wants to bask in their power fantasy, probably forming Ottoman Empire in games like HOI4 or stuff like that.

Before you say, once again, that I'm underestimating Türkiye or something like that, I'm looking at things realistically without putting on my heart shaped, rose coloured glasses. Our economy would've tanked had Qatar not invested 10 billion dollars in 2022. When you're keeping your own economy alive by investments from outside, you cannot talk about being a world power.

 

[dBSPL]

Oh buzz off with this rhetoric. When people can barely afford their rents and basic needs, of course it was going to meet with backlash. It wasn't just a "20" for a lot of people 750 lira is one or two bills or one big grocery shopping trip. If the government wants to create more fund for the military they should consider cutting the obscene budget of the Diyanet first, it is ridiculously and needlessly large.

So, you want to cut us off from most of our biggest trading partners, biggest importers of our goods that bring 10s of billions to the country and do what exactly? Become beholden to oh so trustworthy Russia or China? Turn into North Korea? 2 decades of short sighted politics and thieves hidden behind official positions left us in the state we are today, not the West. And we are not begging for help, we are trying to do business the best we can. And the reason we have to try so hard is once again because people that have been in charge for over 2 decades fucked up both in their military planning and foreign diplomacy.

This blind hatred of the West without realising how entangled we are not just militarily but economically is just nonsensical.

If you read what I wrote above more carefully, you will understand that it is meaningless to make this complaint to me because unless the waste in institutions is prevented, such savings efforts will somehow become political material and people will criticize, and I say the same thing. Yes, the Directorate of Religious Affairs is associated with a lot of waste and some things are obvious, but you cannot cut the entire budget of this institution. If you are advocating the abolition of the institution, that is another topic of discussion. By the way, these were not the main questions. The real question was the earthquake funds, for example... For credit cards; the annual fund deduction of $20 from those with a credit card limit of +3000 dollars on a single card was not too much. Minimum wage earners should not have a limit of 100 thousand liras anyway, if banks give it, there is another officiousness here.

For the other things you wrote: This is the reflex I am talking about. We are embargoed, we face financial sanctions, our trade is blocked, our national security is threatened, terrorist organizations are supported, and they put us in a mess called the readmission agreement. Despite everything, we have not left the Atlanticist orbit, we have given them everything they asked for, but there is still not the slightest sensitivity about our national security. And we have come to such a situation that even in a situation where our national security is at stake, it is again Turkish literate people in Turkish defense forums who say that we will be punished if we do not submit. We have internalized it to this extent.

There should be reciprocity, whoever treats you the way they treat you. You don't have to be black and white, we have to see the contrast.

 

[boredaf]

Yes, the Directorate of Religious Affairs is associated with a lot of waste and some things are obvious, but you cannot cut the entire budget of this institution.

I'm not talking about cutting it down completely, but it desperately needs to be adjusted.

For the other things you wrote: This is the reflex I am talking about. We are embargoed, we face financial sanctions, our trade is blocked, our national security is threatened, terrorist organizations are supported, and they put us in a mess called the readmission agreement. Despite everything, we have not left the Atlanticist orbit, we have given them everything they asked for, but there is still not the slightest sensitivity about our national security. And we have come to such a situation that even in a situation where our national security is at stake, it is again Turkish literate people in Turkish defense forums who say that we will be punished if we do not submit. We have internalized it to this extent.

I'm not saying "we will be punished", I'm saying actions have consequences and what you want to do would result in us losing our biggest trading partners. There are two spheres on the planet and neither is our friend, would you rather try your luck with Russia and China? Seriously? Both sides has countries that are against us, that would gain something from our demise, but we are integrated with one of them both militarily and economically and trying to sever that bond while we are in a precarious situation economically already is short sighted as fuck.

 

[Lool]

Lets look at this a bit logically. PKK's armed wing in Turkiye is 90% done, we are at the end of the "lock" in the north of Iraq and we are already directly involved in combat operations in Gara, we are 30km deep in Hakurk (after Hakurk there is Qandil). The US is leaving Iraq and they will probably leave Syria till 2030, they will be concentrating more resource on Asia-Pacific, leaving the MENA to other players like Turkiye to deal with the problems.

Look at the statements of the PKK so-called leaders and see the panic they are in. Their middle level field commanders are afraid to come out of their caves because they are going to be fried. PKK is taking its last breaths as the organization we know it. This is why it is so important for them to concentrate on the political side of things and transform the struggle into mainly a political one. The US sees this and that's why they push the PKK towards reformation by giving them the needed time, land and guarantees in Syria. Of course they will not succeed as the Syrian status quo is going to the trash bin very soon and PKK will not like the results.

To fully destroy PKK and its idea is nearly impossible and if by any chance we will need decades for it. What we can realistically do tho, is weaken PKK to such a state where they are no more a danger to the Turkish national and regional security and contain them both militarily and politically where they are no more a significant factor. This is only possible with the proactive approach we demonstrate currently in Iraq, intensive diplomatic efforts with our regional partners and political determination. I think that we managed to achieve a lot in this year and I hope we keep up the good work. Next year will be a tough one, but regardless I don't think you should fall for this rhetoric. A possible peace process is always a theme of talk every year, but the realities on the field point at different story.

The US will never leave Syria; at the very least, I know that Israel would never allow the US to leave Syria.

Moreover, PKK is the single most destructive card against Turkey along with the Greek/Cyprus issue and I know that the US will never leave Turkey unchecked otherwise it would grow too big for the US to control and Iam sure that the US doesnt want a new player like Russia and China into the game

Finally, as long as their is oil, the US will never leave. Even in Iraq, just one missile strike against US bases and the US will have a million excuse to remain in the country and steal their oil

I would also like to state that while its true that the armed wing of the PKK in Turkey is almost gone, as long as you leave the core issue which is the PKK in both Syria and Iraq unchecked, then the PKK will come back stronger and more cancerous

 

[Zafer]

Yes, we are in such good shape that in the last 8 years dollar, just one example really, went from 2,26 to 34 lira. Truly a sign of a thriving economy.

View attachment 71233


Once again, your answer has no basis on reality whatsoever, you are living in a reality based on nothing but pure conjecture, not facts. Neither our economy, nor our industrial capacity and not even our population numbers are big enough to make us a superpower. Regional power, sure, that is a real and achievable goal. But superpower is nothing but a lie sold to people who wants to bask in their power fantasy, probably forming Ottoman Empire in games like HOI4 or stuff like that.

Before you say, once again, that I'm underestimating Türkiye or something like that, I'm looking at things realistically without putting on my heart shaped, rose coloured glasses. Our economy would've tanked had Qatar not invested 10 billion dollars in 2022. When you're keeping your own economy alive by investments from outside, you cannot talk about being a world power.

You can only deceive fools with such arguments. Dollar being where it is is not a sign of bad performance. Economists were saying the dollar would hit 40 lira this past summer yet it is at 34 and is not going anywhere.

How many countries can you count who will be making a 5th gen fighter in the next 5-10 years, it is just the US and China. Türkiye will come after these two countries and Russia is yet an unknown if they can be one of the countries. This makes Türkiye a big power if not a superpower. The US is at one end of the world, China is at another end while Türkiye has the advantage of being at the center of the world with easy reach to a wide area because of its geographic location. You can tell this by just looking at how well Istanbul airport performs.

Türkiye is to gain energy independence fast going forward. Türkiye is also to tap into foreign human capital to further ındustrialize. The US and China and EU and Russia are all unions of countries. Türkiye can attract other countries to its purposes like a magnet in the coming 5-10 years. This will potentially place Türkiye at a high position inside an elite power group of 7-8 countries.

 

[dBSPL]

I'm not saying "we will be punished", I'm saying actions have consequences and what you want to do would result in us losing our biggest trading partners. There are two spheres on the planet and neither is our friend, would you rather try your luck with Russia and China? Seriously? Both sides has countries that are against us, that would gain something from our demise, but we are integrated with one of them both militarily and economically and trying to sever that bond while we are in a precarious situation economically already is short sighted as fuck.

Turkiye is about to reach the capability to produce its own military air force and navy. We will no longer buy 200 airplanes and 50,000 bombs from anyone, and our frigates will no longer be produced in other countries. One by one, systems are moving from prototypes to mass-produced systems. Both in the transformation of these prototypes into mass production and in the purchasing processes within the scope of urgent needs, we are blocked not by Russia or China, but by our traditional allies. This situation has reached a point where it is completely intolerable. If we do nothing today, conditions tomorrow will be much more severe and unsustainable. The indirect source of the threat is theirself, and they are also implementing a widespread embargo on military systems, all are our's military allies...

This is what I want to tell. But I think the most fundemental problem here is that the western alliance is threatening our national security and we are willing to put up with it, moreover, we are willing to risk not getting any weapons if they don't give them to us. In return, we expect less sanctions, maybe a little bit of sympathy, just enough to overcome the feeling of inferiority. How did this situation come about, because we sat on the German and American lap for more than 50 years. I think it's absurd to ask someone who says we should get off this lap, whether you should go and sit on the Russian lap. When a nation's national security issues clash with its military allies, it is the downfall of that nation, sooner or later. This is not a simple threat, this is the biggest dilemma we have faced in close to a century, but we insist on not understanding it.

Even China, which is seen as a pole today, received help from the French as much as it did from the Russians in developing its aviation industry to the present day. But we, the most principled in the world, need to continue to act according to world politics of 50 years ago, fearing the wrath of our allies even when they betray us. I expect reciprocity policy like every honorable citizen. I am not saying we should be hostile or turn our backs on anyone. Let's continue to work with everyone in areas where we can work, but once we allow our national interests to be violated, they will always be violated, and that is what we are experiencing right now.